In an analysis that might create heartburn for any number of people at any number of levels, David Strauss and his aerospace team at UBS Securities issued a report Tuesday (April 27) that concludes the next-generation of airplanes–the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350–are “way” over-ordered.
The “good” news (tongue-in-cheek, for those who don’t pick up on our odd humor) doesn’t stop there. UBS concludes that the Boeing 777, Airbus A330 and Airbus A320 are also over-ordered.
The Boeing 737 is under-ordered, in the UBS view, but this doesn’t relieve the concerns about this order-book, either, according to UBS.
UBS concludes that there are nearly 400 excess wide-body orders that could be deferred, including a whopping 275 787s (out of nearly 900). Qatar, Singapore, Gulf Air, Qantas and launch customer All Nippon are identified as over-ordering the 787 in UBS’ analysis.
The A350, with somewhat more than 500 firm orders, has been over-ordered to the tune of 250 aircraft, UBS concludes. Qatar, Singapore, US Airways, Alitalia and Kingfisher are among those at risk to defer, UBS writes.
There are 152 A320 over-orders, with Wizz Air, IndiGo, US Airways and Tiger Airways among those potentially at risk for deferrals.
TAM, Shenzhen, China Southern, easyJet and Air China are among those needing A320s, UBS writes.
UBS concludes that carriers operating 737s need to order a net of 206 more airplanes to accommodate growth and retirements over the next 5-8 years, but some of Boeing’s biggest 737 customers also over-ordered. These include LionAir, over-ordered by a whopping 123 737s. All others in an over-order position did so by 36 or fewer airplanes.
American Airlines, with a large MD-80 fleet, needs 98 more 737s. China Southern, Southwest, GOL and Ryanair also need sizable fleet orders to meet growth and retirements.
There are a net of 33 over-orders for the 777 and a net of 83 A330s.
The 37-page report is highly detailed.