Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
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- A350-1000 or 777-9? Part 2 April 11, 2024
- Pontifications: Boeing “transparency”–not so much. April 9, 2024
Boeing sets 3Q for 787 delivery
Boeing just issued this press release:
EVERETT, Wash., Jan. 18, 2011 /PRNewswire/ — Boeing (NYSE:BA – News) announced today that it expects delivery of the first 787 Dreamliner in the third quarter of this year. The new delivery date reflects the impact of an in-flight incident during testing last November and includes the time required to produce, install and test updated software and new electrical power distribution panels in the flight test and production airplanes.
“This revised timeline for first delivery accommodates the work we believe remains to be done to complete testing and certification of the 787,” said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program. “We’ve also restored some margin in the schedule to allow for any additional time that may be needed to complete certification activities,” Fancher said.
The 787 program has been gradually returning individual airplanes to the flight test program. After receiving interim software and hardware improvements, four flight test airplanes have been subjected to extensive ground testing and a thorough review to ensure their readiness to return to flight. The remaining two airplanes will be returning to flight in the days ahead to bring the full flight test fleet back up to flight status.
The revised first delivery date is not expected to have a material impact on 2010 financial results. Financial guidance and anticipated initial 787 deliveries for 2011 will be discussed in the company’s earnings call on Jan. 26.
So six to eight months. Let’s hope the best. Interesting though the bit on no material impact on 2010 financials – indicates that they only expected to deliver a low number of planes beyond those finished even if they had delivered the plane in February 2010. That can’t be good news in terms of the forecast production ramp-up?
I am hoping Boeing is finally seeing the end of the tunnel and not the headlight of another train coming at them. The B-787 program has been troubling, but it also promises rewards not only for Boeing but for the airlines that order it. A June, July, or August would be a good time for the B-787 to EIS. My guess is Boeing could deliver between 5 and 10 B-787s if the begin deliveries in 2011Q3.
Hmmmm. To paraphrase Mark Twain or whomever..
“The reports of our delivery dates are exaggerated ”
and when is the next report coming which says ‘ xxxxx and yyyyy and zzzzz have stepped down and retired so as to spend more time with their families. We appreciate their outstanding service to date “
By the time Boeing starts delivering this plane, they will have to hope and pray that they can make a profit. They’ve sold dozens of the 787 for far less than their true worth expecting the program to be USD$5Bn but that figure has now risen to USD$12Bn owing to the issues they have faced.
Will Boeing make a profit on any of the 800+ 787’s they have on order? I predict it will be touch and go.
The mid-long range market is so big that Boeing will have to royally screw up not to ever be able to make a profit on the plane. I definitely think they will, it’s just a matter of how much delays and how much $$$ over budget they’ll have to be to achieve it.
“They’ve sold dozens of the 787 for far less than their true worth …”
More like a third(++) of current orders at prices never heard before.
If these sales were far below true value remains to be seen.
In the same vein later sales may be well overpriced.
Going to be an interesting year all around.
I don’t understand how Boeing can tell everytime there is a delay on the 787 program that there is “no financial impact”. How is it possible ?
There was an impact for the A380 delays, so why not for Boeing ???
I have no idea if Boeing can make a profit on the 800 + B-787s curretly on order, or even break even. But, I am sure they will make a profit with the next 800 + B-787s ordered.
Remember that Airbus has sold some 240 A-380s, and is not even half way towards the break even point on that program.
Questions remain as to where the break even point is on other new current programs like the A-350 and the B-747-8. Chances are Boeing can soon reach the break even point on the B-748 program just with the B-747-8F, leaving the B-747-8I as profit.
Will EADS ever break even on the A-400? Not with selling only 174 aircraft, they won’t.
“Will EADS ever break even on the A-400? Not with selling only 174 aircraft, they won’t.”
EADS themselves have already stated this. They hope to make a profit on sales to other countries. This belief has caused a slight controversy within the German government as some doubt the number of sales EADS is predicting beyond the initial contract.
So the question that we will never get an answer for, remains. How many do they need to sell/deliver to break even?
First they have to sell a good number more, since the programme is in a forward loss position at present, according to Boeing. In that regard, last year’s gross sales of +1 and net sales of -1 are not encouraging.
The key to receiving FAA certification for the 787 this year, will be the ability to secure FAA
approval for EROPS at the same time, of critical importance to most 787 customers, in view of the still unresolved and unexplained R.R. engine disintegration on their test stand last year.
The initial delivery is in my opinion not so much endangered. 8 month should suffice to get the certification (some people maybe remember that at one point (late 2007) Boeing officials considered 6 month sufficient for entire flight test, so much about the loss of reality in the upper management).
What worries more: the changes that have to be introduced into the already completed aircraft are mounting, and more aircraft will be produced (they can’t stop the line for half a year).
So, we might have the first B787 in service by Q3, but what is about the average delay of the first 100 jets? This number might even increase in the upcoming month, when Boeing has to produce a number of “Head of Versions” for different customers. Installing fully functional cabin can cause some delays itself, I remember a program which suffered badly from exactly this point.
As Boeing encountered problems in basically every milestone towards “Entry Into Service”, this should be carefully watched.
Initial delivery is in the end more a marketing event, see A380 how EIS and average delay compare (most A380s are delayed longer than the initial A380 delivered to Singapore Airlines).