Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing defends 787, 777 against whistleblower charges April 17, 2024
- Dissecting Boeing CEO’s statement next new airplane will cost $50bn April 15, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 3. Propulsive efficiency April 12, 2024
- A350-1000 or 777-9? Part 2 April 11, 2024
- Pontifications: Boeing “transparency”–not so much. April 9, 2024
Farnborough, Day 2: Dullsville; 737 MAX weights, ranges
Update, 8:30 PDT: If anyone thought Airbus’ John Leahy doesn’t have some orders up his sleeve, get a gander at this from Reuters:
Airbus sales chief John Leahy was in typically combative and upbeat form: “The party’s over?. Why, it’s only the second day of the show, for heavens’ sake,” he said of suggestions orders were drying up. “We’ll have some important announcements.
Original Post:
Another reason we’re glad we didn’t waste our time and money going this year: a dearth of activity.
- Bombardier: Air Baltic signs LOI fo 10+10 CS300s, replacing its Boeing 737 Classic fleet. Delivery from 1Q15. This delivery date is interesting; BBD had said the line was sold out to 2016.
- Airbus: Cathay Pacific ordered 10 A350-1000s and converted 16 A350-900s to -1000s. It still has 20 A350-900s on order from a previous deal. Airbus also booked one order for an A319/Sharklets from Drukair of Bhutan.
- Boeing: Widely anticipated, GECAS announced that it is committed to 75 737-8 MAXs plus 25 -800s. The deal has to be confirmed into an order. This sort of falls into the so-what category; GECAS was one of the 1,000 “orders and commitments” and this is simply a public announcement of its previous “commitment.” This is not a firm order. Since sister company CFM makes the engines, a deal from GECAS was an eventual certainty. ALAFCO announced a “commitment” to 20 MAX 8s. We believe this is a new commitment, not part of the previously announced 1,000, but we’re not sure. It appears so since Boeing now lists the customers at 17.
- Pratt & Whitney: BOC Aviation selected the IAE V2500 for more A320 family members. JetStar selected the IAE V2500 for 32 A320s.
- Superjet: Interjet orders fives more SSJ100s.
Perhaps the biggest news: Boeing finally has released the weights and ranges of the MAX. From the Boeing press release:
Comparative* maximum take off weights and range limits for the Next-Generation 737 and 737 MAX:
| MTOW (lb) | Range (nmi) | Two-class seating | |
| 737-700 | 154,400 | 3,400 | 126 |
| 737 MAX 7 | 159,400 | 3,800 | 126 |
| 737-800 | 174,200 | 3,080 | 162 |
| 737 MAX 8 | 181,200 | 3,620 | 162 |
| 737-900ER | 187,700 | 3,055 | 180 |
| 737 MAX 9 | 194,700 | 3,595 | 180 |
*Next-Generation 737 values are calculated with Blended Winglets. Typical mission rules, two-class seating applies.
Thank you Scott
Airsinght and Leeham got it in may
One more time boeing has tweak its 737-900ER two class typical config to 180 from 174. This tweak is supposed to flow down the -800 and -700 by 2014 if i’m not mistaken
Whats with the negative tone on anything Boeing here lately Scott? You seem to have a beef with them ?! I cant remember that you had this attitude before?
It wasn’t that long ago we were criticized for publishing Boeing slides that promote their points of view.
We will argue that we provide “positive” commentary when warranted and “negative” commentary when warranted on any of the OEMs. No beef with anyone. We just call ’em as we see ’em, regardless.
Boeing used to sneer at Airbus when it announced commitments. Now it’s fashionable. Or so it seems.
Perhaps you haven’t noticed, but ALL the OEMs do it. Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer. Even Comac and the Russians. It seems to be industry practice.
You thought we were tough on Boeing? Read Dominic Gates’ piece in The Seattle Times.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/boeingliveeventcoverage/2018652141_at_farnborough_gecas_announces_the_inevitable_a_737_max_order.html#continue
Agree with Scott, people wonder why GECAS is not placing firm orders for the MAX.
The CX order is no surprise IMO. Neither would be EK, SQ or UA converting options into A350-1000 orders when 2018 gets closer.
I would not be surprised if Boeing is surprised though 🙁
I too am surpriced by the lack of orders for the MAX. This does not look good going forward, its not the best economy in the world at the moment either. Maybe orders will come closer to EIS? But Boeing seems to have fubared this time. Maybe that 60/40 NB market will come true for Airbus?
LOL–given your criticism a couple of comments ago, we’re amused by your rap on Boeing.
One reason orders haven’t firmed up: price escalation clauses–more than five years to EIS, much longer for many customers. Escalation now for this long lead time adds up.
Another reason: Most customers waiting for firm configuration, performance.
Not that I am very experienced in the a/c game, but somewhat in the engine game… and would like to venture a guess:
With all the discussion of the difficulties B face with the low 737 wing (and the obvious implications it has had on the engine design) is it quite possible that customers like to see more proof this time around than they usually ask for when the installation and engineering is straightforward?
I know I would if I were them…
Well I have to fit in dont I 🙂 But I do think B messes up on the NSA vs MAX and maybe it cost them a top ranking manager and some of the NB market share.
But the long backlog of the NEO might play into Boeings hands at the end, being able to effer slots earlier. I was a NSA supporter, MAX is just putting makeup on a pig IMO.
To quote a children’s story, “That’s some pig”!
Going on 50 years and still quite strong.
Let’s face it, age is catching up with the 737. That is its only problem.
For now, we see Boeing asking CFM to fill the gap for them !
Through very interesting improvements in the CMC technology mainly concerning the HPT casing !
IMO, these new techno, following just one year after the A320 NEO engine EIS, are highly questionable today, both for maturity and reliability, military engines domain … !
GE, may be very short to get in the spec’s in time … hum, the GE way … late and out of spec’s !
May be successful too, and Airbus will be worried, why they don’t get the ultimate from GE !
I just hope P&W will make it in time for Bombardier and Airbus, and with 2-3 points better than the 15% spec’s, mainly to put CFM, SNECMA and GE on the run !
And I hope too, P&W are working hard to introduce CMC later …
Since the first com’s on the GTF case, P&W have said they have a 5% margin, to build up, through the 5 years ahead !
Only problem seems to be that industrialisation for CMC is not ready for MAX EIS.
The MAX remains a paper plane. ( the alternative is ballooning maintainance cost.
may be alleviated by “power by the hour” for customers but then CFM will bear the full brunt. of it)
I agree with en590swe: “I was a NSA supporter,” but the 737 was never a pig!
The lack of an avelange of MAX orders during the FAS, as Airbus secured
after lounging the NEO at the PSA last year, is i.m.o. an ominous sign and
seems to confirm that the marginally efficient MAX v.v. the NEO, after a lot of
“fixing up,” may not have been the best decision Boeing could have made,
when they (finally) recognized after committing to the MAX in a great hurry to
keep their foot in the door at AA, that an all NSA would have been a better
choice at that time!
Unfortunately, it is too late for Boeing to change horses now!
Its only the second day of the FAS, folks. IIRC, Airbus didn’t announce orders everyday at last year’s PAS, so why is this year different?
The MAX vs. NSA debate is rediculus now, Boeing is going with the MAX for now, and will work on the NSA at a later date.
PS to my Blog above.
There has been no further mention of the “commitment” from AA to 100 MAX
a/p’s in August of 2011, which was subject to confirmation of the Specification
and Operating Costs for the MAX from Boeing, by November last year!
Do we have to assume, therefore, that AA has no further interest in the MAX,
after signing up for 400 NEO’s?
Isn’t that further confirmation from the airline industry, that the MAX isn’t living
up to their expectations and with the benefit of hindsight, that Boeing should
have gone full steam ahead with a NSA last year?
Rudy, AA only has 130 A-320NEOs on firm order, It has another 130 A-321OEO and A-319OEOs on order. The remaining 365 Airbus aircraft are options. AA has committed to 100 B-737MAX and 60 options, pending performance garuntees, as you said.
Dullsville, if your refering to the bloody weather here Scott, your absolutely correct. The show certainly doesn’t have it’s familiar buzz, but we’re happy with results to date.
Other complaints, the beer is to cold & fizzy & the chips are greasy & soft, that appart we’re enjoying our liquid evenings & the friendly cross company banter that occures at these events.
Something noteworthy that went unnoticed here is that the extended range for the 739max is with an auxiliary fuel tank.
This can be see on the Boeing slides (http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/flightblogger/)
Thnx for the link. Remarkable how the salesman is repeatingly assuring the public that the 737-9i MAX is THE 757 replacement.
He smells fire. Airfield performance of the this MAX variant is IMO an issue in many US – Caribbean markets. I cannot see Delta/United replacing their large 757 by this aircraft. The resulting operational restrictions are to large to wipe away with a Powerpoint.
The weather was pissy, chips were over priced but what saved the day was a magnificent flight display of the 787, very impressive!
Funny thing is happening now… Boeing is storing orders for the airshow, announcing commitments and doing flight displays!! Saw u-turn Al and Randy next to the 787, both were well pleased.
The A380 looked great in MAS livery and produced a display we come to expect.
Dull? Never! 🙂
Phil, UKair, have fun. The FAL / PAS always have that beer / reunion aspect 🙂 BTW the 787 display looked great (on youtube).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmqLsEhoOzY
Great video! Al Baker must be rather unhappy that the Qatar name was shown upside down! TThey should have planed the demo flight the other way round 🙂