2012′s Most Momentous event: were readers correct?

A year ago we asked the following question and received the results. Now that 2012 is all but over, do you agree with your own forecasts?

What is the most momentous event you predict for 2012?

Answer Percent
Boeing doesn’ t ramp of 787 as expected 28%
Airbus slips its schedule for the A350 23%
Boeing meets ramp up expectations for the 787 12%
Airbus stays on schedule with the A350 11%
US Airways makes a bid for American Airlines 10%
Bombardier has first flight of CSeries by year end 9%
American Airlines tells US Airways to sniff its own exhaust 4%
Bombardier’s first flight for CSeries slips into 2013 2%

18 comments on “2012′s Most Momentous event: were readers correct?

  1. No surprise perhaps that so few should judge a C Series non-flight by year-end as ‘most momentous’ (it’s pretty safe to suggest all first flight schedules will slip…). Of concern maybe for Bombardier is that fewer than one in ten perceived a 2012 first flight as having such status. Whenever it flies, we can gauge the real – or imagined – momentousness only with hindsight.
    Remember, the first jetliner design to fly in the USA received not one order: how many people would/did describe the flight as momentous – and what significance would we attribute to their judgement today? Discuss.

    • I count 27 747-8 by the end of November, plus 43 787s (as of today), for a total of 70 frames. Will Boeing be able to deliver 5 747-8s this month to hit the low end of the 75-80 range?

      • Josh – Were the airlines so unwise as to make agreements with no get-out clauses? if they have dis-honoured their contracts, then no doubt Boeing has been wise enough to ensure its own recompense… Not many flies on that OEM.

    • Boeing’s plan, is/was to deliver 70 to 85 of those models this year. To date, 29 748′s and 44 787′s (73 total) have been delivered this year. Atlas and Airbridge took 748′s in Dec, and it looks like AI took another 787 yesterday.

  2. The big surprise for me was the number of 787s that Boeing has managed to crank out this year. I was expecting less than 25 planes. I am happy to have been proved wrong.

    • FF – no doubt many of those airframes were counted among the large numbers previously parked, which should have been oven-ready for completion once missing/delayed parts arrived or mods became available. And perhaps some have been delivereed in a slight state of undress – given that one or another CEO has jumped up and down, and then taken his aircraft later… It is to be hoped that ‘handed over’ means just that, and not immediately returned to the OEM’s safekeeping while mechanical, structural and/or financial loose ends are tied.

      • Tail fins have been disappearing from KPAE. Thus, I hope, we can conclude that when Boeing means “delivered” they really mean “delivered and not coming back.”

      • It is a mixed bag : current assembly line occupants are in the ~LN100 range and ~46 ( 43 for 2012 ) frames have been delivered ( a commendable result imho ) . thus there should still be more than 40 frames available for rework ( reworked delieveries were said to reach into 2014 ).
        The “no extended rework” target appears to have been met,
        the overweight status seems to lag the announced planning.

        Even if currently kept carefully under the radar I expect Boeing will have to invest some time and effort into rethinking/redesigning the electric load switching infrastructure.
        ( could be as simple as a banal software change. )

  3. Uwe – ‘The “no extended rework” target appears to have been met,…’ Does anyone know Boeing’s definition of this term – how long is ‘extended’?
    ‘…seems to lag the announced planning…’ = a four-letter word rhyming with, funnily enough, ‘eight’.

  4. I can’t find the original poll… did you remove it?

    I was curious what was said in the comments back then…

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