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Introduction

Jan. 11, 2016, © Leeham Co. Airbus and Boeing are headed for parity in monthly production rates by the end of this decade, a new forecast by Leeham Co. shows.

In our annual production rate forecast for the Big Two OEMs, we combine announced production rate plans, Market Intelligence indicators—largely from the supply chains that serve the Big Two—and our own analysis of where we believe rates should be based on backlog, market conditions and ramp-up of the 777X and A350 production.

Our forecasts may well run contrary to what the Big Two will say publicly, and even privately, but our assessment is what it is.

Summary

• Single aisle rates heading levels by the turn of the decade.
• VLA rates have to come down based on lack of demand.
• 777 Classic rate, even at reduced level, is unsustainable.