When does a larger airliner pay off? Part 2

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By Bjorn Fehrm

March 14, 2024, © Leeham News: We are doing an article series about what drove the cross-over from Airbus A319 to A320 and then to A321. We start with the ceo range to understand at what passenger numbers did a route support the A319 versus the A320 and A321.

The same change in airliner size happened for the Boeing 737, but we will limit the investigation to the Airbus range as the modern variants, 737 MAX 7 and 10, are not yet in service.

We will use our Airliner Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to model typical sectors and see at what load factors the economics favor a switch.

Figure 1. The Airbus A320ceo with it’s characteristic wing fences. Source: Airbus.

Summary:
  • We develop the Passenger Mile Costs for the different A320ceo variants, A319, A320 and A321.
  • Then, we gradually lower the number of passengers transported on the A320 and A321 until we have the same Passenger Mile Costs for all variants. This shows how many more passengers a route must support to motivate a switch to a larger model.

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Bjorn’ s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 45. Continued Airworthiness

By Bjorn Fehrm

January 12, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We are discussing the different phases of a new airliner program. After covering the Design and Production, we now look at the Operational phase of a new airliner family.

For the operational phase, the airplane must pass scrutiny for Continued Airworthiness. Today, we discuss the different means available to the Regulator, such as Airworthiness Directives ( ADs) and System Bulletins (SBs) to the OEM to make sure any detected issues get noticed and corrected.

Figure 1. The Boeing MAX 9 Door Plug Emergency AD issued last week. Source: FAA.

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Outlook 2024: European airline consolidation

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By Gordon Smith

January 3, 2024, © Leeham News: Consolidation is certainly in the air. Even before the shock announcement on December 3 that Hawaiian and Alaska are planning to tie the knot, the industry was gripped by the ‘will-they, won’t they’ saga of the proposed JetBlue and Spirit deal.

Although it’s US carriers that have been making headlines, the European airline market is experiencing its own flurry of mergers and acquisitions. This is a topic LNA covered at length pre-pandemic (Our backgrounder is available here).

At the time of this writing, big changes are happening at three of the continent’s best-known flag carriers. Significant shareholdings in ITA Airways (formerly Alitalia), TAP Air Portugal, and SAS Scandinavian Airlines are changing hands, with Europe’s aviation supergroups spying an opportunity to expand their respective empires.

Tapping into the latest data provided to LNA from aviation data analysts Cirium, we can get a better understanding of what these changes could mean for existing fleets and upcoming airliner deliveries.

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Bjorn’ s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 43. Delivery

By Bjorn Fehrm

December 22, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We are discussing the different phases of a new airliner program. After covering the Design, Prototype phase, and Production, we now look at the first deliveries.

After about seven to nine years of development and production preparation, it’s finally time for the first delivery of the new aircraft.

Figure 1. The development plan for a new airliner. Source: Leeham Co.

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Boeing beats Airbus in order tallies at Dubai Airshow thanks to widebody jetliner demand

By Dan Catchpole

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Nov. 20, 2023 © Leeham News: Boeing dominated the Dubai Airshow, racking up 313 orders—232 firm and 81 non-firm. Meanwhile, Airbus garnered only 86 orders, as of Friday, the last day of the biennial airshow.

Credit: Boeing

It was the first time that American aerospace giant has beaten its European competitor at Dubai since 2017. Heavy demand for twin-aisle aircraft helped Boeing land more orders.

A much anticipated mega order by Turkish Airlines for Airbus jetliners didn’t materialize. However, both entities said they plan to announce a significant order in the future.

Summary
  • Widebody orders lead narrowbody orders
  • Resurgent international travel demand drive order split
  • Performance problems soften demand for Airbus A350

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Pontifications: History is repeating itself

By Scott Hamilton

Sept. 5, 2023, © Leeham News: Decades after US airline unions were on the decline, some are making big gains in restoring wages, benefits, and strength.

Pilots at American, Delta, United, and Alaska airlines (among others) won big wage increases under recent contract negotiations. Pilots at Southwest Airlines are aggressively seeking more money and revised work rules. Flight attendants at American just approved a strike authorization by a wide margin.

Drivers at UPS Airlines, the package-freight carrier, won a generous new contract. Pilots at rival FedEx also became more militant in recent months.

One can hardly blame the unions for seeking dramatic wage hikes and work rule changes. Labor has been under constant pressure since the 1970s. Unions probably reached their peak strength in 1966, when five US airlines were struck at the same time by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (the IAM). Sixty percent of the capacity was grounded for 43 days. Eastern, National, Northwest, Trans World and United were affected.

The industry was highly regulated. The Civil Aeronautics Board, created in 1938, oversaw virtually everything airlines did. Routes, airfares, serving alcohol, classes of service, and mergers were tightly controlled by the CAB. So was the competition. From its inception to 1978, the CAB turned down every single application to create a new airline (except a host of local service carriers immediately following World War II) or to upgrade charter carriers to scheduled service. More than 70 applicants were turned down.

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The Small Airliner Problem, Part 10. Cash costs for a battery-based airliner

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By Bjorn Fehrm

July 6, 2023, © Leeham News: In our series on costs factors that make up Cash Operating Cost for a battery-based airliner with range extenders, we now add Crew costs and Airport/Airway fees.

We then have all the components of the Cash Operating Cost (COC) for the ES-30 and can compare it to a normal propulsion 30-seat turboprop.

Figure 1. The Heart Aerospace ES-30 hybrid 30-seat airliner. Source: Heart Aerospace.

Summary:
  • The high operating weight and slow speed of a battery airliner increase the Airport/Airway fees and Crew costs for the ES-30.
  • In summary, only one Cash cost remains competitive, and the COC total exceeds the cost of a 30-seater turboprop.

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The Small Airliner Problem, Part 6

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By Bjorn Fehrm

May 25, 2023, © Leeham News: In our series about the viability of the business plans for small airliners (nine to 50 seats), we have covered the cost factors that make up the Cash Operating Cost, COC (Fuel, Maintenance, Airway/Airport fees, Crew costs).

We now compile the Cash Operating Cost for the aircraft on a typical sector and discuss the result.

Figure 1. The D238eco 40-seat airliner. Source: Deutsche Aircraft.

Summary:
  • The Cash Operating Costs do not reduce in proportion to passenger numbers for a smaller airliner.
  • As a consequence, a small airliner needs a higher load factor or yield to be viable.

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The Small Airliner Problem, Part 5

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By Bjorn Fehrm

May 18, 2023, © Leeham News: In our series about the viability of the business plans for small airliners (nine to 50 seats), we have covered how energy/fuel consumption, maintenance, and airway/airport fees scales with the size of the airliner.

The cost factor we now examine is the crew cost, where especially the flight crew cost development is troublesome, as pilots changed jobs during the COVID lull or retired early. When air traffic now rebounds, the lack of pilots drives wages and thus costs to new record levels.

Figure 1. The Heart Aerospace 30-seat ES-30 electric airliner. Source: Heart Aerospace.

Summary:
  • The availability of flight crews is a major problem in the US market. It will spread to other geographies as air traffic picks up after COVID-19.
  • The scaling of crew costs per transported passenger is unfavorable for smaller aircraft.

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Pontifications: Union hypocrisy over Skywest, JSX airlines

By Scott Hamilton

May 16, 2023, © Leeham News: “We are also concerned about elevated emissions and increased airspace congestion. To fit into the regulatory gap it occupies, the aircraft are reconfigured to seat no more than 30 passengers, on regional jets designed originally to hold up to 50 passengers. This model generates more intensive emissions per passenger and in busy markets with congested airspace, the model further strains the already challenged and under-staffed air traffic control system.”

So says the US Air Line Pilots Association and a bunch of other unions in a May 5 letter to the Department of Transportation, the US Department of Labor, the Federal Aviation Administration and the Transportation Security Administration.

The group wrote a three page letter pissing on plans by Skywest Airlines to launch a small charter airline under Part 135 of the FAA rules that allows pilots with fewer than 1,500 hours to carry passengers. Skywest is pursuing this because of the nationwide pilot shortage. Indeed, the shortage is global, but it’s especially acute with US regional airlines—which ALPA has been trying to diminish for decades Skywest wants to reconfigure Mitsubishi CRJ200s, a 50-passenger airplanes, into a 30-seat aircraft.

Part 135 carriers are limited to 30 passengers and provide what essentially is scheduled airline service but which are technically charter operations.

The unions spend much of their three page letter taking on JSX Airlines, which has a successful Part 135 operation using 45-seat Embraer E145s configured for 30 passengers. Its operations are migrating across the southern US.

The paragraph cited above is full of union hypocrisy, especially that of ALPA. Here’s why.

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