Machinists want new Boeing contract ensuring work for decades to come

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By Dan Catchpole

Updated 2:35 p.m., March 4, 2024

The IAM 741 began promoting a strike fund for 2024 Boeing contract negotiations in 2019. Source: IAM 751.

March 1, 2024 © Leeham News: When representatives from Boeing and the Seattle-area machinists union start formal negotiations on Friday, the context will be a world apart from when they bargained the existing contract 10 years ago. Back then, Boeing management had a new airplane program (777X) as leverage and exploited an internal fight in the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers to push through a concession-laden contract.

Now, Boeing is battered after years of self-inflicted crises, a pandemic and problem-riddled supply chain, and, after decades of defeats, labor has scored major victories around the country, especially in aerospace.

Head of District Lodge 751 Jon Holden told Leeham News & Analysis during a recent interview that he is determined to get back what was taken from the roughly 31,000 members he represents in the Puget Sound area.

The union wants better work-life balance, better pay and retirement benefits, and guarantees that will keep it healthy for years to come.

Given its ongoing struggles, Boeing can little afford to alienate the union representing the vast majority of people assembling its commercial jetliners, industry analysts say.

However, Boeing management and the IAM have had a rocky relationship since workers at the company organized in 1935. In the past 20 years, company leadership has taken a hard line against organized labor and repeatedly pushed for concessions despite banking substantial profits and spending billions on share buybacks.

Summary
  • Unions are resurgent in tight labor market
  • Analysts: Boeing can’t afford a labor unrest
  • Talks breakdown between SPEEA, Boeing over Tech and Safety Pilots contract
  • Boeing firefighters reject latest offer

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Culture change needed at Boeing; labor contract talks begin in March and could lead the way

A Leeham News Editorial

Jan. 29, 2024, © Leeham News: If Boeing is to emerge from its latest crisis unscathed, it will need to commit to a culture change. That’s the consensus of industry watchers, and it’s one that we whole-heartedly endorse.

CEO Dave Calhoun will have a chance to show his commitment to that change starting in March, when Boeing Commercial Airplanes top management sits down with the bargaining team for its largest touch-labor union, IAM District 751.

For 20 years, Boeing has prosecuted a scorched-earth fight against its unions, in the name of cost-cutting. It has outsourced work all over the globe. It has built a whole new campus in union-hostile South Carolina, primarily to escape the “hostage” situation it faced before, with all of BCA’s deliveries at the mercy of one unionized labor force.

But while Boeing has won every battle in this long labor war, the result has not been a strategic victory. Instead, in 2024, the company finds itself badly trailing Airbus in both orders and deliveries, with little chance of catching up in the near term. This is in large part due to a series of high-profile self-inflicted failures, of which the near catastrophe on Alaska Flight 1282 on Jan. 5 is just the latest.

Boeing needs a top-to-bottom change of culture, and it can start by rebuilding its relationship with its touch-labor union.

  • This year’s talks are the first in a decade.
  • Boeing has zero leverage.
  • Dropping union animus may be too much to ask.

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Instead of progress, Boeing must deal with new crisis of Alaska Flight 1282 on Wednesday’s earnings call

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By Scott Hamilton and Judson Rollins

Jan. 29, 2024, © Leeham News: Twenty-twenty-four will be a crucial year for Boeing.

A door plug blew off a Boeing 737-9 MAX Jan. 5. The company must deal with the fallout on its 2023 year-end earnings call Wednesday. Credit: Capt. Chris Brady.

An unexpected twist is the crisis  from Alaska Airlines Flight 1282, in which a door plug blew off a 737-9 MAX at 16,000 ft. Nobody died, and injuries were light. But the MAX 9 fleet was grounded in the US by the Federal Aviation Administration. The FAA launched a formal investigation into the “quality escape” that is believed to have led to the accident. Last week, the FAA put a freeze on current production rates of the 737 and, for now, killed Boeing’s plans to add a line at its Everett (WA) plant.

Beyond dealing with the 1282 aftermath, Boeing hopes this year to clear its inventory of 737 MAXes and the 787. Clearing the inventories brings cash and some profits. But will this move to the right while Boeing is under even more scrutiny by the FAA?

Boeing planned to be positioned for 2025 to pay down debt incurred during the MAX grounding and the COVID-19 pandemic. Progress toward free cash flow targets of $10bn per year by 2025/26 was forecast at its Nov. 2, 2022, investors day. This is almost certainly inoperative.

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Leadership changes required at Boeing, say conference delegates

By Scott Hamilton

Analysis

Special Coverage of the Boeing Crisis

Jan. 26, 2024, © Leeham News: At the first commercial aviation conference following the Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 Boeing 737-9 accident on Jan. 5, much of the conversation was about the fallout to Boeing. Spirit AeroSystems was a topic of less conversation, even though the problem with 1282’s door plug appears to have originated with Spirit.

Aviation Week’s supplier conference was supposed to begin with a fireside chat with Boeing’s Ihssane Mounir, the head of Boeing’s commercial supply chain. Unsurprisingly, Mounir canceled the week before as the Alaska accident—in which there were no fatalities and only a few minor injuries—expanded into a full-blown crisis for Boeing.

News that the Federal Aviation Administration dropped the hammer on Boeing by freezing current 737 production rates and killing, for now, expansion of the airplane’s final assembly to the “North Line” in Everett (WA) brought disbelief that Boeing has fallen so far from what was once considered the Gold Standard of American engineering.

And, with contract negotiations beginning in March with its touch-labor union, the IAM 751, aerospace analyst Ron Epstein of Bank of America predicted that 751 has more leverage now than in recent years and Boeing will be in the weaker bargaining position.

David Calhoun, CEO of The Boeing Co.

Other than consultant Richard Aboulafia, a vociferous critic of Boeing CEO David Calhoun, speakers were willing to definitively call for changes in Boeing’s leadership. But in sideline talk, consensus was clear: “leadership” at Boeing headquarters and in Seattle with Commercial Airplanes has to go.

But there was no agreement, or even suggestions, about who should replace Calhoun and Stan Deal, the CEO of Commercial Airplanes.

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Updated: FAA grounds expansion plans for Boeing 737 MAX production, approves path for MAX 9s to resume flights

UPDATING (2)

  • Hundreds of 737s scheduled for delivery this year and in coming years affected by FAA action.
  • IAM shares concerns with Boeing, FAA.

By Dan Catchpole

Special Coverage of the Boeing crisis

The Federal Aviation Administration froze Boeing’s 737 production rate at the current level (31/mo, 372/yr) and for now killed expansion of a 4th line in Everett. Credit: Leeham News.

Jan. 24, 2024 © Leeham News: The Federal Aviation Administration said Wednesday it will not approve a planned expansion of Boeing 737 MAX production. The agency also laid out a path to get MAX 9 airplanes back flying.

The jetliners were grounded on January 6 after a door plug blew out the day before from a two-month-old 737 MAX 9 flown by Alaska Airlines. The FAA investigation found significant quality lapses in the program. Inspection of the MAX 9 fleet found problems in other airplanes.

A few of Alaska’s Boeing 737-9 MAXes parked at SEA-TAC International Airport awaiting return to service. Credit: Brandon Farris Photography.

After grounding the 171 MAX 9 airplanes operated by Alaska (65) and United Airlines (79), the FAA “made clear this aircraft would not go back into service until it was safe,” FAA Administrator Mike Whitaker said Wednesday in a public statement (Emphasis added). “The exhaustive, enhanced review our team completed after several weeks of information gathering gives me and the FAA confidence to proceed to the inspection and maintenance phase.

“However, let me be clear: This won’t be back to business as usual for Boeing. We will not agree to any request from Boeing for an expansion in production or approve additional production lines for the 737 MAX until we are satisfied that the quality control issues uncovered during this process are resolved,” he said.

“The quality assurance issues we have seen are unacceptable,” Whitaker said. “That is why we will have more boots on the ground closely scrutinizing and monitoring production and manufacturing activities.”

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Analysis: With Gentile out at Spirit, here’s what Shanahan’s hiring likely means

By Bryan Corliss

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Oct. 2, 2023, © Leeham News – Tom Gentile is out as CEO of Spirit AeroSystems, the victim of a number of serious production missteps and a failure to lead the Tier 1 supplier into a stronger position following the Covid-19 pandemic and the grounding of Boeing’s 737 MAX. 

Interim Spirit AeroSystems CEO Pat Shanahan.

The new interim CEO is Pat Shanahan, a long-time Boeing and Pentagon executive who has been serving on Spirit’s board since 2021. 

Spirit said its board is conducting a search for a new chief executive.

  • Markets respond to news
  • Shanahan faces huge challenges as CEO
  • Shanahan’s resume fits Spirit’s need 
  • Our takeaway: What this means for Spirit’s future

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Pontifications: IAM 751 gearing up for Boeing contract talks in 2024

By Scott Hamilton

Sept. 19, 2023, © Leeham News: It’s September 2023, one year ahead of the expirations of the current labor contracts between Boeing and its touch labor union, IAM 751. (The contract with the engineers union, SPEEA, expires in 2026.)

The IAM district, whose members assemble all Boeing airplanes in Washington State, fired a warning shot across Boeing’s bow last week. It wasn’t the first.

751 urged its members to begin saving money in anticipation of a strike in September 2024. That was three years ago.

The strike fund information appeared in the 751’s March 2020 newsletter, Aero Mechanic. The same issue had commentary about the new pandemic. At that point, nobody thought the pandemic would last two years.

Boeing was already in trouble then. The 737 MAX had been grounded since March 2019. There was no end in sight when the grounding would end. Suspension of the 787 deliveries, for what became 20 months, was still another half-year away.

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Analysis: Labor issues continue to challenge aerospace industry

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By Bryan Corliss

Sept. 18, 2023, © Leeham News – One of the continuing themes we’re hearing – at investor presentations and on quarterly earnings calls – is the shortage of skilled labor, which is disrupting deliveries up and down the aerospace industry supply chain.

The inability of suppliers to deliver parts on time – or to deliver correctly assembled parts – is hampering the OEMs as they attempt to ramp up production to meet high demand from airlines.

This is not just an issue affecting aerospace. There’s a general shortage of medium- and high-skill workers in the Western world right now, with shortages of every kind of worker from line cooks to truck drivers. Shortages existed prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, and there’s still strong demand, even with economies slowing as central banks move to tamp down inflation. 

The issue is more pronounced in industries that rely on high-skill workers – like aerospace.

One outcome of this worker shortage is a rise in union activism. In aerospace, we’ve seen the strike by the International Association of Machinists against Spirit AeroSystems this summer, and the near strike by members of the same union against Boeing’s defense business in and around St. Louis last year.

Next year, both Spirit and Boeing will be back at the bargaining table; Spirit to negotiate with members of SPEEA, the union for aerospace engineers, while Boeing holds talks with IAM District 751, which represents hourly workers at the company’s plants in Puget Sound and Oregon. 

IAM 751, in fact, is urging members to prepare for what it’s describing as a September 2024 contract vote that will “forever change the aerospace industry.” 

The environment seems to be favorable to the unions, for reasons we’ve discussed before. However, with the OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers heavily in debt (and currently bleeding red ink), there’s going to be a limit to what the companies will be willing to offer in a bid to satisfy their labor forces.

  • Demand for workers remains strong
  • Lack of skilled labor is hurting industry
  • Boeing, Spirit aren’t strong financially
  • UAW strike bellwether for next year’s talks

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Analysis: Jefferies presentations show industry hasn’t stabilized post-Covid

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By Bryan Corliss

Sept. 11, 2023, © Leeham News: Negative cash flow in the quarters ahead. Ongoing issues with the supply chain. OEMs struggling to meet high airline demand as Tier 1s wrestle with quality issues. New technology wearing out faster than the old systems it replaced.

The No. 1 takeaway from last week’s Jefferies Financial Group Industrials Conference presentations is that the aerospace industry is still a few years away from being in a stable state capable of meeting the demands of customers and shareholders alike.

“We know our customers really do want to make more,” said Howmet CEO John Plant, whose company casts fasteners and engine components for Tier 1s and OEMs. “The question becomes when can we achieve these improved rates?”

Plant went on to say that he believes both Airbus and Boeing will hit their goals for increased widebody production; Airbus at 9/mo  on the A350, Boeing at 10/mo for the 787. 

The question, he said, is whether the OEMs will hit those rates in 2025 or 2026.

Executives from Boeing, Spirit AeroSystems and Howmet all presented at the conference, and all agreed that there’s reason to be optimistic, given the strong demand from airlines for more planes. 

The issue, as Plant put it, is the industry’s ability to meet that demand. “We haven’t seen the real benefits of increased aerospace production.”

  • Companies discuss latest 737 quality issue
  • Spirit tries to get on track as refinance deadline looms
  • Gentile: Supply chain needs new contract terms
  • Boeing CFO projects losses for next quarter
  • Howmet talks about engine challenges
  • Takeaway: Fundamental demand is strong, but…

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Analysis: Spirit strike likely a sign of changing aerospace labor market

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By Bryan Corliss

Striking Spirit AeroSystems workers blow whistles in front of one of the factory gates./Wichita Business Journal photo

July 10, 2023, © Leeham News – In case anyone had slept through all the earlier alarms going off, the whistles and airhorns that sounded during the mercifully short-lived Machinists Union strike at Spirit AeroSystems should have been a wake-up call: 

This ain’t the 2010s aerospace labor market anymore. 

In the labor market of 2023, hourly workers don’t want to come in on weekends. They want raises, and they’re not interested in getting paid in stock. And don’t you dare think of cutting off payments for the prescription drugs their kids need to take to stay healthy.

All this is going to create a challenge for the aerospace industry. For the past two decades, executives have focused on growing profit margins by holding down marginal costs – especially labor costs. 

A decade ago, aerospace companies were able to win labor concessions by threatening to take work away

Today, it’s the workers who seem to have leverage, and OEMs are going to have to figure out how to keep them happy and productive, or explain to the Kirbys, O’Learys and Al-Baker’s of the airline industry why their planes aren’t getting out of the factories on time. 

  • Tide of outsourcing seems to have turned
  • Baby Bust: Fewer workers in the workforce
  • St. Louis, Wichita: Red state Machinists vote to strike
  • What’s next: SPEEA at Spirit, IAM at Boeing

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