Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Solid start for stand-alone GE Aerospace despite cuts to LEAP output April 23, 2024
- SPEEA, Boeing at impasse over safety program, union says April 23, 2024
- Better transparency needed on Boeing’s 1Q earnings call April 22, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 4. Propulsive efficiency April 19, 2024
- Boeing unlikely to meet FAA’s 90-day deadline for new safety program April 18, 2024
Bjorn’s Corner: Largest navigation change since radar
Bjorn Fehrm
June 15, 2018, ©. Leeham News: The worldwide aviation is heading for its largest navigation change since VOR and Radar was introduced after the Second World War.
When scheduled airline traffic started in the late 1920s, navigation was with maps and when the weather was bad, through Low-Frequency Radio beacons. Then the VOR and Radar were introduced. Now we will replace these as well.
Is Embraer selling the E190-E2 short?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 14, 2018, © Leeham News: The new Embraer E190-E2 entered service with its launch operator, Norwegian Wideroe, in April. We looked at the aircraft in two December articles. At the time, we focused on the improvements in fuel consumption and maintenance costs compared with the original E190.
Recently, we used our performance model to understand the maximum range of the aircraft. We were surprised when the flight with ease sailed past Embraer’s published maximum range figures.
Summary:
- Embraer gives the maximum range of the E190-E2 as 2,850nm.
- It uses “Single class seating” to reach this range, an unusual way to specify the maximum range. Normally one uses a two-class or three-class cabin.
- When using standard methods, we calculate a range well over Embraer’s information. Is Embraer selling the E190-E2 short?
Airbus-C Series closing a “positive catalyst,” say analysts
June 13, 2018, © Leeham News: The news Friday that Airbus and Bombardier concluded the deal in which Airbus takes a 50.01% ownership in the C Series program was greeted favorably by two analyst reports LNC saw.
Credit Suisse and JP Morgan each called the approval by all regulatory authorities and closing the deal—well ahead of schedule—as positive catalysts for the C Series.
A synopsis of the two research notes are below.
The partnership becomes effective July 1, just two weeks ahead of the Farnborough Air Show.
Airbus risks losing market share if it doesn’t boost A350 production
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Introduction
June 11, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing is increasing the production rate of the 787 next year from 12 to 14/mo.
Airbus is reducing the production rate of the A330neo from 10 to 6/mo.
Last year, buried deep in its website, Airbus indicated plans to go to rate 13/mo, although no date was listed.
With few sales of the airplane last year or so far this year, will demand support a rate hike next year? If so, a decision is needed pretty much now to go forward.
One London-based aerospace analyst tells LNC the top executives say no rate hike will be coming.
Scheduled deliveries may lend a clue.
Summary
- Boeing is winning the wide-body order race and retaken the lead in market share.
- Airbus’ former top sales chief bemoaned the lack of delivery slots for the A350.
- Supplier issues still slow A350 deliveries.
Pontifications: Photo essay
By Scott Hamilton
June 11, 2018, (c) Leeham News: In a change of pace, here are a number of photos gathered from recent visits to museums in the US and Canada.
Lockheed L-1049 Constellation of the Airline History Museum of Kansas City Downtown Airport, Photo by Scott Hamilton.
The Lockheed L-1049 Constellation of the Airline History Museum in Kansas City is labeled the Super G, but it actually is an H model, delivered as a passenger/freighter. It was restored to G markings in TWA colors. The airplane was airworthy until 2007, when an engine fire prompted the museum to park the airplane. AHM hopes to restore the airplane to flying operation.
Airbus-C Series deal closes July 1; presents challenges for Boeing, Embraer
June 8, 2018, © Leeham News: Airbus assumes its 50.01% majority stake in the Bombardier C Series program July 1, the two companies announced today.
The company is called C Series Aircraft Limited Partnership, or CSALP.
The CS100 and CS300 may be renamed the A210 and A230, according to a previous press report.
A C Series Final Assembly Line will be constructed in Mobile (AL), next to the Airbus A320 FAL, to serve the US market.
Airbus and Bombardier will speak at the Southeast Aerospace & Defence conference June 25-27 in Mobile (AL). The C Series final assembly line will be an extension of the A320 FAL.
Airbus-C Series deal to close July 1
- Note: A press conference follows today. Here is the press release issued by Airbus and Bombardier.
Airbus, Bombardier and Investissement Québec agree C Series Partnership closing effective July 1, 2018
- Airbus to acquire majority stake in the C Series Aircraft Limited Partnership, effective July 1, 2018
- All regulatory approvals required for the closing of the transaction have been obtained
- Partnership head office, leadership team and primary final assembly line located in Mirabel, Québec (representing some 2,200 employees and subcontractors), with the support of the C Series global supply chain
- Partnership brings together two complementary product lines, with 100-150 seat market segment projected to represent 6,000 new aircraft over the next 20 years
- Addition of Airbus’ global reach to create significant value for C Series’ customers, suppliers, employees, shareholders and communities
- Significant C Series production efficiencies anticipated by leveraging Airbus’ production ramp-up expertise
- Growing market for C Series to support second Final Assembly Line in Alabama, serving U.S. customers
Bombardier will talk about the new C Series Final Assembly line planned for Mobile (AL) next to the Airbus A320 FAL during the Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference June 25-27 in Mobile.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft stability, Part 9
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 8, 2018, ©. Leeham News: In the last Corner we discussed how a pilot uses the advanced Automatic Flight Control System (AFCS) on modern high-end business jets and airliners.
Now we will discuss what separates the high-end (and expensive) systems from the less capable we described before. It’s about flying difficult routes which contain demanding takeoffs and approaches.
Figure 1. A challenging approach where RNP based navigation is needed. Source: Wikipedia.
How competitive is A330neo? Part 3.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 7, 2018, © Leeham News: In Part 1 we compared the base characteristics of Airbus’ A330-900 and Boeing’s 787-9. In Part 2 we compared the fuel consumptions. Now we continue with the other costs of operation.
With these we form Cash Operating Costs and then add capital costs to get Direct Operating Costs.
Summary:
- The operating costs for the A330-900 and the 787-9 are close.
- The difference can be compensated with lower capital costs. Monthly lease rates for the A330-900 are below the 787-9 lease rates.
- We think there are other Boeing strengths which turn the deals the 787 way.
Airbus sees potential for A330neo sales; Boeing sees opportunity
June 6, 2018, © Leeham News: Airbus remains confident that the sales boon for the slow-selling A330neo is just around the corner, but an analysis of Airbus’ current operator lists shows significant inroads by Boeing for its 787.
Airbus is counting on aging A330ceos by 2020 to spur sales of the A330neo. But Boeing already sold the 787 to 19% of the A330 operators. Look for more aggressive campaigns. Airbus photo via Google.
LNC outlined Airbus’ strategy last December in which officials are confident the A330neo will see an uptick in orders as the current A330 operating fleet, now called the ceo, ages beginning in 2020.
The new sales chief, Eric Schulz, reiterated Airbus’ confidence at the IATA AGM this week in Sydney, Australia.
But 19% of the 109 A330 operators already ordered the 787. One, American Airlines, already announced the 787 order will replace the A330s in its fleet. Air Canada long ago made a similar announcement. Hawaiian Airlines canceled an A330-800 order in favor of the 787-9.