Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Dissecting Boeing CEO’s statement next new airplane will cost $50bn April 15, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 3. Propulsive efficiency April 12, 2024
- A350-1000 or 777-9? Part 2 April 11, 2024
- Pontifications: Boeing “transparency”–not so much. April 9, 2024
- Airbus charges and write-offs since 1999: more than €33bn April 8, 2024
787 deliveries this year
Boeing, on its year-end and 1Q earnings calls, suggested there will be about 40 deliveries of thy 787 and the 747-8 this year, evenly split between the two.
Aerospace analysts don’t agree, at least on the 787 side. In reports issued this week, Bernstein Research and Buckingham Research forecast eight and seven deliveries respectively. Previously, Wells Fargo and JP Morgan forecast 15 and 16 deliveries, though JP Morgan yesterday warned its number could decline.
Dow Jones reported today that Ethiopian Airlines said its anticipated deliveries for the 787 in December has slipped from December to March. The Ascend data base currently shows Ethiopian’s first 787 scheduled for delivery in January.
Boeing hasn’t announced the date of the first delivery beyond a generic August or September. Ascend shows the first delivery, to launch customer ANA, in August and a total of 16 for the balance of 2011.
We’re not aware of anything specific that could slip the delivery dates, but as for the gross number of deliveries this year, we always felt the number 20 was highly ambitious and unlikely to be achieved due to the rework necessary on the 787s stacked up at Paine Field (now around 30) and the slow production rate of two a month. We think the seven or eight deliveries forecast by Buckingham and Bernstein might even be high.
Boeing has its 2Q earnings call soon, typically the last Wednesday in July (but not yet scheduled), at which new guidance will be announced.
Thanks, Scott. Do you know if Boeing are now producing 787’s without any traveled work or rework? Also, apart from the plane they are slated to deliver to ANA in the third quarter, do they have any planes that are now in a state to be shipped to customers, once certification is complete?
FF: Traveled work is on a steady decline but not completely eliminated. Boeing’s Scott Fancher said it will be “years” before rework is completed, so one can conclude that incoming stuff still requires rework. We’ve been told a number through which rework will be necessary but since the number is unconfirmed, we won’t publish it here.
KCTB: You are correct: no GEnx this year.
FF: Traveled work is on a steady decline but not completely eliminated. Boeing’s Scott Fancher said it will be “years” before rework is completed, so one can conclude that incoming stuff still requires rework. We’ve been told a number through which rework will be necessary but since the number is unconfirmed, we won’t publish it here.
KCTB: You are correct: no GEnx this year.
I thought Boeing was already working on installing the package 2 RR engines on some of the B-787s. Most of the B-787s lining the ramps around Paine Field are to be RR powered. I understand none of the GEnx powered B-787s will be delivered this year.
But several of the B-747-8Fs are also ready, or nearly ready for delivery.
Just for Dreaming of GEnx or no Jumbo GEnx either ?
787 GEnx
The analysis I saw suggest low single digit total for the 787 deliveries this year.
How many 748s have Boeing got stacked up on the flight line?
It does seem unlikely, especially if the “2 per month” isn’t actually a completion rate but is a “join the ever lengthening queue for rework” rate. I guess after all the troubles Boeing will be delighted to get one plane into commercial service. Anything more than that will be a bonus.
I think that is the minimum delivery rate Boeing thinks they could meet. But if the first delivery to NH is next month, they need to average delivering 4 per month, for each of the 5 months (Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, and Dec), to meet their goal of 20 deliveries this year.
Can they do it?
KC-135TB The Boeing goal was 120 deliveries this year not 20.
From the information here, it looks like UKair is close to the best guess, ie the ANA plane they are flying now, the one they will deliver Aug/Sept (which surely means September?) and a couple of others (2-4?). My previous “finger in the air” on this forum at the turn of this year was one plane in 2011 – so things are looking up for Boeing!