Odds and Ends: Aeromexico orders 90 MAX 8s, 10 787s; CSeries; A350

Aeromexico ordered 90 Boeing 737-8s and 10 787s. This order had been expected to be ready at the Farnborough Air show.

Aspire Aviation has a long profile on the Bombardier CSeries.

A350 delay: It looks like the wing issues previously disclosed will result in another delay for the program. Aviation International News has this story. Back on July 6 we opined that we’re expecting a delay of perhaps five months. The AIN story talks about one month.

26 Comments on “Odds and Ends: Aeromexico orders 90 MAX 8s, 10 787s; CSeries; A350

  1. Fantastic news for Aeromexico. Hopefully this sees them entering prosperous times again.

  2. The A350 delay is not any new one really, it is breaking of the news by Bregier at Farnbourough how much MSN001 wing join will be delayed by a 5 month delay to getting the wingskins onto the winghalves of MSN001, MSN5000 and one half fatigue specimen wing. The wingjoin of MSN5000 is delayd from April-May to August.

    Ferpe

  3. ferpe :
    The wingjoin of MSN5000 is delayd from April-May to August.
    Ferpe

    Based on statements by Bregier at FAS, I came away with the impression Filton completion of 5 wings was imminent. We talked about this likely meaning an August delivery to FAL. It now looks like the first set (MSN5000?) will not be delivered to Toulouse until October, with the structural join to follow. I do not know any details of the A350 production process for the wing join, but the first 787 join was completed very slowly as processes for wing alignment, drilling and fastening were proved for the first time. Assuming the A350 program will proceed with this first wing join in similar deliberate fashion, I suspect this join could take up to a month. Total delay of Apr-May to Oct-Nov = 5-7 months. As we’ve been discussing on a.net, it is not possible to know if this join is on the critical path, or if this delay is taken from margin Airbus had built into the schedule.

    Astuteman probably said it best… grab some popcorn, it’s going to be interesting to watch!

  4. By July 7, 2005, the first flying specimen for the A380 (MSN-001) was structurally complete. First flight occurred less than 10 months later. Considering the fact that the A380 program was starting to be beset by problems post the structural completion date of MSN-001 (A388), it is not inconceivable for the A350 (MSN-001) to at least equal, or even to better the A380 (MSN-001), with first flight occurring in August 2013 at the latest. That is, if MSN-001 (A359) is structurally complete by the end of October.

    • That should read “by July 7, <b<2004, the first flying specimen for the A380 (MSN-001) was structurally complete.” 🙂

  5. Interesting comparison between CSeries and other planes by Aspire Aviation. The A319 cabin is two metres shorter than the CS300, but are seated six across, rather than five across, On the same relaxed single class density as 130 seats in the CSeries, I think that gets us 144 seats on the A319 and a similar number on the 737-7, instead of 127 and 136 respectively. This means that the fuel burn per seat is actually lower for the A319 NEO and the same for the 737-7 MAX compared with the CS300 on the fuel burn figures supplied.

    NB. I would have left this comment on the Aspire Aviation website but I am uncomfortable with having to supply name and phone number to sign up. Feedback, in case Daniel Tsang is reading this.

    • FF,

      I could reassure that your name & phone number will not be abused.

      This practice is consistent with joining FG Club, create user profiles to comment on Aviation Week.

      Once your user account is approved, your comments will automatically appear without any delay or go through a review process, versus the prior practice of manually reviewing each & every comment.

      In creating your user account, you could also sign up for Aspire’s newsletter for free.

  6. Well it looks like the B-737MAX program racked up another LOI, as the AM ‘order’ is not firm, yet. But giving that, the B-737-8MAX and -9MAX seem to be doing very well, as is the A-320NEO, but sales are very slow to nonexsisentent for the B-737-7MAX, A-319NEO, and A-321NEO. That makes it seem the B-737-8MAX and A-320NEO are the ‘sweetspots’ in the NB market, with the next size up, the B-737-9MAX doing very well compared to the next sized up A-321NEO.

    IIRC, the B-737-7MAX currently has no orders, the A-319NEO only has a few orders, but the CS-300 seems to be the best seller in this sized airplane.

  7. CM :

    ferpe :
    The wingjoin of MSN5000 is delayd from April-May to August.
    Ferpe

    We talked about this likely meaning an August delivery to FAL. It now looks like the first set (MSN5000?) will not be delivered to Toulouse until October

    No, the wings should be shipped out at the end of August. MSN5000 and MSN001 should follow close to each other. I do not see much news in the linked article, as Ferpe said.

    CM :

    ferpe :
    The wingjoin of MSN5000 is delayd from April-May to August.
    Ferpe

    … I came away with the impression Filton completion of 5 wings was imminent

    With the exception of A400M, all wings are assembled in Broughton, not Filton. However, design and development is done in Filton.

    OV-099 :
    By July 7, 2005, the first flying specimen for the A380 (MSN-001) was structurally complete. First flight occurred less than 10 months later. Considering the fact that the A380 program was starting to be beset by problems post the structural completion date of MSN-001 (A388), it is not inconceivable for the A350 (MSN-001) to at least equal, or even to better the A380 (MSN-001), with first flight occurring in August 2013 at the latest. That is, if MSN-001 (A359) is structurally complete by the end of October.

    Let’s count backwards: EIS mid 2014 – 1 or 2 months (end of FT + Certification) – 12 months (FT Program) = ~end of March 2013 (First Flight). I would say they should have enough time between now and the end of March for assembly, power on, FT instrumentation and ground testing. Let’s see what they announce in October as to the date of the first flight but before that the wings need to ship out in August.

  8. KC135TopBoom :
    Well it looks like the B-737MAX program racked up another LOI, as the AM ‘order’ is not firm, yet. But giving that, the B-737-8MAX and -9MAX seem to be doing very well, as is the A-320NEO, but sales are very slow to nonexsisentent for the B-737-7MAX, A-319NEO, and A-321NEO. That makes it seem the B-737-8MAX and A-320NEO are the ‘sweetspots’ in the NB market, with the next size up, the B-737-9MAX doing very well compared to the next sized up A-321NEO.
    IIRC, the B-737-7MAX currently has no orders, the A-319NEO only has a few orders, but the CS-300 seems to be the best seller in this sized airplane.

    • Boeing launched it with the other MAX models, but you are right, it hasn’t sold yet. It is the last of the 3 models for EIS. Then again, it could just be dropped, sort of like the B-787-3 (and that model actually had some orders from JL and NH).

      • B-787-3:
        _Fully_ optimised for its mission this could have been an interesting addition to the B portfolio.
        Much too expensive to develope though and finally killed by resource limitations and the beancounters.

  9. Any chance of Boeing not launching the 737-7MAX? If there are no orders so far, would it make sense for them to not do the -7MAX? If could potentially hand over some market share to Bombardier but why sink money into another variant that may have no return (such as the 737-600)?

  10. Boeing’s press release states “up to” 90 MAX, meaning this figure possibly includes an unspecified number of options.

  11. All the A320 NEO and B737-8 MAX may easily be converted either in 319-737-7 or A321 -739 version, if necessary !
    So, it is unrealistic to make stats just now …. customers are ordering center line A/C, the first to get out … and may adjust their orders later !

  12. With all due respect, the sections of the Boeing conference call discussing 787 completion and delivery reminded me of the old story about the singing horse: “Much can happen in [3 months until the next earnings call]: the king might die, I might die, and who knows, the horse might learn to sing”.

  13. Good Picture from Aspire Aviation, but for the Regional Jet segment, is it possible, technically and with good economics, for Bombardier to take the plunge for like CS75 ? With 80-100 seats ?

  14. EADS just announced a delay of 3 months for the A350. No specific reasons mentioned. Ref: Q2 financial results statement…
    Ahhh well.

    • A slight wing production delay on MSNs 002/003/004/005 in order to get the automatic drilling process right, is not not very serious IMO.

      Mr. Evrard said the wings for the first two test planes have been completed by hand, and so flight testing can begin as planned next summer. But the production delay means that four other A350s that will be used in flight testing will get their wings slightly later than planned, he said. The first planes for customers will also fall slightly behind schedule.

      “We had this blockage in the drilling station and the knock-on effect on following aircraft cannot be compensated for,” said Mr. Evrard said, adding that drilling issues have been resolved and wings are now being produced at the expected pace.

      http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443343704577552271767158452.html

  15. Why would a A350 delay be chocking? We see it in all new projects, things have become more and more complex and expensive. A380/787/748 and I guess CSeries.

    We should all learn to add 2-3 years to any new project 🙂

    • The EIS of the A350-900 is currently “only” delayed by some 15 months over the initial EIS target set forth in early 2007, when Airbus decided to use large composite panels on the fuselage instead of the traditional aluminium ones. There’s really no point in trying to inflate the delay figure. 🙂

      As for why the development period of new aircraft is being stretched out, one primary reason is the fact that the aerospace industry is using evermore efficient automation processes. From the link above:

      The drilling hitch is common to how airliners are now being built, with more composite materials and automated assembly: Preparation takes longer than for traditional planes, but subsequent series production moves faster and with more reliable quality standards.

      • Nonetheless good engineering practice should provide for better estimates. Published timelines today invariable are the most optimistic estimate ( or in the case of Boeing disconnected Dreamworks ).

        Sure we don’t know about the background politics involved.

      • I wouldn’t necessarily agree that the A350 programme was launched based on the most optimistic estimates. When Airbus revealed to the world the clean sheet XWB iteration at Farnborough in 2006, the EIS was set for “mid 2012”. However, the fuselage, except for the empennage and centre wing box, was still all metallic. When that changed in 2007, the schedule was stretched out by one year. As of now it looks like the time between programme launch and EIS wil be slightly more than 7.5 year; or about a 15 percent schedule overrun. In comparison there was was a 85 percent schedule overrun on the 787. IMO, this isn’t really too bad considering the fact that quite a lot of the production chain is incorporating all new industrial processes. As I’ve repeatedly pointed out, IMO it’s much more sound to stretch out the development period and avoiding the pitfalls of clogging up the production lines with hardware not meeting certification standards.

        New groundbreaking aerospace programs pushing the state-of-the-art will today, IMO, only come in on schedule if they are given more or less “limitless” resources, and not designed to cost (DTC).

    • Manufacturers make their money by delivering planes into customer hands. Entry into Service is a significant date but less important than getting into full scale production. I would say getting the 787’s production issues since EIS are actually more of a problem than its development issues before. People have tended to think the plane’s flying now, so it’s all fine.The same thing with the A380, incidentally.

      • That’s exactly right. The name of the game is the production ramp-up. On the A350 wing manufacturing, Airbus seemingly wants to get the automated production processes right on MSN-005, at the latest, before moving into serial production.

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