Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing unlikely to meet FAA’s 90-day deadline for new safety program April 18, 2024
- Focus on quality not slowing innovation, says GKN April 18, 2024
- Boeing defends 787, 777 against whistleblower charges April 17, 2024
- Dissecting Boeing CEO’s statement next new airplane will cost $50bn April 15, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 3. Propulsive efficiency April 12, 2024
Taking care of business at the airframe OEMs
The news yesterday the Boeing resumed delivery of the 787 is good news, not just for Boeing and the airlines, but for all the stakeholders.
Although Boeing did not stop or slow production of the aircraft during the grounding, had the grounding continued for six months instead of 3 1/2 we saw, Boeing may well have had to slow down the supply chain.
The 50 airplanes in the field are slowly returning to service. The last are to be carrying passengers by next month.
Now it’s back to taking care of business.
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9-R9S1m4dA&w=420&h=315]The launch of the 787-10 was pushed to the right during the grounding. We fully expect this launch to come soon, perhaps at the Paris Air Show. The 777X received its Authority to Offer last month. We anticipate formal launch by year end, perhaps at the Dubai Air Show with a huge order from Emirates Airlines. We also think there will be some commitments announced at the Paris Air Show, by Qatar Airways, which always likes to make a splash at the European event.
Production for the 787 is ramping up toward the 10 per month goal Boeing set for the end of this year, and despite skeptics (we included), it looks like this will happen. But Boeing needs to go beyond 10/mo to 14 to accommodate the 787-10 and demand for the current offerings. With a planned 2018 EIS for the -10, there’s plenty of time to bring the supply chain into line for this.
Over at Airbus, the A350 MSN001 has been painted and is prepping for handover to flight test.
The big question is whether the airplane will fly before or after the air show, and if it flies before whether it will make an appearance.
Airbus execs say they aren’t pushing to fly before the show, but we believe the French government dearly wants to have the newest bird there. Certainly so would showman John Leahy, Airbus’ COO-Customers. It would be nice, of course–but even if the plane flies before the event, can Airbus afford to idle the airplane for a week from the test program when the Entry Into Service timeline is already pressing? Every day counts. Is a show-and-tell more important than satisfying delivery schedules? We think not.
At Bombardier, they’re pushing to maintain schedule over pizzazz for its CSeries. BBD, too, is mindful of the PAS and would dearly love to fly before or even during the show to be able to crow about the progress. There is no thought of bring the plane to the show–that will be saved for Farnborough next year (or Dubai this year?). But it’s entirely possible CSeries won’t fly until the end of the month, which is what officials have been saying all along.
Embraer doesn’t have a bird in the hand to show at the PAS, but it does want to make a splash with some commitments for its re-engined E-Jet.
The Paris Air Show won’t be as exciting as we hoped late last year because of the absence of the A350 and CSeries, but the remainder of this year is going to be.
Bombardier has six weeks to fly the CSeries FTV-1 prior to the end of June. Their last announcement on 9 May was that they were within ‘days’ of handing over to the flight test centre yet so far no confirmation that it has happened yet or even pictures of the completed plane. Is 6 weeks enough for ground testing? I understand much depends on what snags come up but there are a slew of tests to go through on the ground and I cannot see them flying before Aug even if all goes well. Thoughts?
I agree with Trooper on the CS-100. But the same can be said for the A-350. If Airbus does push to show the A-350 at the PAS, then they learned nothing from the boondoggle PR stunt Boeing pulled to unveil the B-787 on July 8, 2007.
I was surprised that Airbus let their A-350 spend a week in the paint shop instead of moving directly on to the ground tests. I expect Bombardier will keep the green skin to save time as they have an obsession with the end of June deadline.
One week to put on the make up for the show. Another week delay due to show is nothing compared to the news gained. News for the not so informed future share holders. Will any news cooperation tell within 30 seconds that a visit to Paris Air Show is also a week delay? Nice pictures for the media and the market value will go up. “Wow, new aircraft! – BUY!”
Last word of PAS – SHOW!
And you are, of course, best placed to judge what they have and haven’t learnt from the A380.
Did they just roll out an empty shell?… didn’t think so.
Rushing to get the A350 flying at the Paris Air Show isn’t on a par with Boeing rolling out an incomplete frame that didn’t then fly for months, surely.
Precisely. The work is going according to the revised schedule of deliverables: First Flight is the next one.
I truly doubt that the French government has any influence to speed up first flight, and also if they even have a true incentive to try to use any.
Airbus seems very pragmatic with the a350, and not keen in letting anybody push them around. And secondly the a350 is not a French government development program.
Oh but it is with the free money … err, “loans” Airbus gets from the EU governments.
Give it a rest will ya?
Has there been any suggestion that the A350 will visit the Paris Air Show other than by way of a possible flypast? Would that delay the test programme by a week, even if it were done every day? Would it have to be done every day? The impact would be gained with just one visit.
If it’s flying, there is no doubt in my mind they’ll do a flyby at Paris…they’d be crazy not to. That being said, I also have no doubts that they’re going to rush the 350 into the air just to make the show.
Yep, money on for a flyby, it should be possible to make it part of the test schedule (add an extra hour to the flight time, and some ‘simple’ tests along the route).
Would not be surprised if there were certain tests going on whilst it was in the paint shop, the rumour is that they are working around the clock on it, and possible engine fire up Friday.