Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
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Weather outlook bleak through Wednesday for CSeries first flight
Bombardier has finished taxi testing today following an increase in the winds. The weather forecast for Montreal calls for rain beginning tonight through Wednesday, with a sunny day forecast for Thursday.
BBD says it needs VFR weather for the first flight. So it appears there is no likelihood of a first flight at least through Wednesday.
Pingback: CSeries Update with VIDEO – Weather Holding up First Flight Window
Well, if the weather is not within the limits set by BBD and Canada, then they should not fly. A delay of the FF a day or two will not affect the timing of the flight test program.
No doubt they have seen the IMO unprecedented full coverage on-line show Airbus created around the A350 first flight. A talk show, interviews, a panel, flash backs, interrupted by high quality live air to air news flashes. Wonder how Bombardier will approach this. The bar is set so high BBD can’t / doesn’t want to match it.
keesje, why would BBD want to follow Airbus? It is a different company that has a lot riding on the A-350. BBD is a much smaller company with a different marketing philosophy.
All that coverage you are talking about must have been in the EU,keesje. There wasn’t much about it in Canada or the US.
Jack it was a live internet broadcast so you were probably still sleeping. Europe and Asia were awake. It was so orchestrated, planned in detail and executed flawlessly it almost seemed pre recorded/ edited. Maybe you can find it somewhere, a 4 hour show.
The stakes for BBD are probably even higher. No doubt communication experts thought about what message they want to send to who and how to realize that best.
I don’t expect the first flight to take place this week. At this point the weather doesn’t look very good for the rest of the week (as far as we can tell). But everything is already in place to receive the guests and the press for the first flight. They are almost done with ground testing; the rest depends on Mother Nature.
FOR MANY MONTHS NOW, WE HAVE SEEN REPORTS OF THE “CSeries”
BEING READY TO FLY. IS IT EVER GOING TO TAKE OFF, TO BEGIN WITH?
RUDY HILLINGA
Well, I suppose we can say that it has begun to take off. Today as a matter of fact. For several eye witnesses have reported that during the last round of high speed trials today, the aircraft nose wheel has become momentarily airborne. As you know that’s what we call rotation in our jargon. 😉
For your information, the CSeries is (only) nine months late. If it sounds worst than that it is because Bombardier has badly managed the public’s expectations. On the other hand it has very well managed the programme itself.
I think this is one of the consequences of the delay of the first flight. They missed the summer season and associated better weather and they risk significantly more weather induced delays as it is now a kind of chicken and egg situation: they need more flight testing so that they can fly in any weather, but because of the weather they can’t do sufficient flight testing.
When does the snow season start and what is going to be the impact of that if they have not reached sufficient maturity before then?
The weather was not much better this summer. As everywhere else on this planet the weather is not what it used to be and has become more unpredictable than ever. For the snow season, it should “normally” start mid December.
When I used to live there, it also could start in mid to late November. That was over 20 years ago though.
It could still start in mid November, but it would not last very long and the snow would probably quickly disappear. But snow and cold can still set in early in December and remain for the rest of winter. Anyway, flight trials in winter conditions and for a prolong period should give us a reliable airplane for winter operations anywhere on the globe.
Shall I suggest that Cseries is just 3 months late ?
The first 6 months delay was to lengthen CS300 ans CS100 …
The lengthening of the CS300 indeed played a role in the first six-month delay because it impacted the CS100 due to commonality between the two models. But it is responsible for only a portion of that delay. What portion exactly, I don’t know. Problems with suppliers also played a significant role in delaying first flight from “the end of the year” to “the end of June”. I think both circumstances overlapped somewhat and can share the blame.