Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 4. Propulsive efficiency April 19, 2024
- Boeing unlikely to meet FAA’s 90-day deadline for new safety program April 18, 2024
- Focus on quality not slowing innovation, says GKN April 18, 2024
- Boeing defends 787, 777 against whistleblower charges April 17, 2024
- Dissecting Boeing CEO’s statement next new airplane will cost $50bn April 15, 2024
Odds and Ends: Order bubble, revisited; MRJ lands JAL; MH370
What order bubble, Revisited: We recently asked the question, What order bubble?
The orders don’t stop coming. Boeing landed a big fish with a large order from BOC Aviation, bringing net orders to 918–easily on the path to 1,000. Airbus lags at just over 800 net orders through July (it only reports monthly, not weekly as does Boeing), but we see Airbus hitting 1,000 this year, too. There were 121 MOUs announced at the Farnborough Air Show for the A330neo and we expect most of these to firm up, if not all. (There will likely be some swaps by Air Asia from the A330ceo to the neo, however.) We expect more A320 orders as well.
Boeing’s BOCA order was the lessor’s largest ever and included two 777-300ERs. Boeing is attempting to combine -300ER orders with 737 and 777X deals in order to bridge the production gap between the 777 Classic and the 777X.
GE Aviation and GE Engines naturally benefited from the 737 and 777 BOCA deal, since they are the sole-source engine providers on the airplanes.
MRJ lands JAL: Japan Air Lines ordered 32 Mitsubishi MRJ90s for delivery from 2021. This is the fourth customer for MRJ. JAL’s rival, All Nippon Airways, was the launch customer for the MRJ90. JAL also ordered up to 27 Embraer E-Jets.
MH370: New information emerged this week on the flight path of Malaysian Airlines MH370, which disappeared on a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing and is believed to have crashed in the south Indian Ocean.
We’ve been asked by local media if MAS can survive. We believe it can, given the government backing. It’s the flag carrier and we don’t think Malaysia will allow the airline to go out of business. Korean Air Lines survived following a series of crashes and the Soviet shootdown of KAL 007 during the 1980s. MAS may become a very different airline, but we think it will continue.
BOCA order break down:
50 X B-737-8MAX
30 X B-737-800NG
2 X B-777-300ER
BOCA has 82 total aircraft in this order with a total list price value of $8.*BILLION (USD).
BOCA currently has 251 aircraft in their leased fleet, including those on order, but not including these new 82 ordered airplanes from Boeing.
Airplanes Currently Owned / Ordered
Airbus A320 72 / 32
Airbus A330 1 / 5
Boeing B737 68 / 10
Boeing B747 1 / 0
Boeing B777 15 / 8
E190 3 / 15
What do you think the _actual_ price was? As has been discussed herebefore, list price is an imaginary number with no bearing on actual selling price.
Knock 40% off for sure, someplace usualy between 40% and 60% off.
I just cut them in half and puts it in fairly decent perspective
I find the following interesting in that I now know of two entities that managed to break into the que when supposedly all slots are taken.
Lion air has 70 A320CEO on order and those were picked up in 2013. I.e. Boeing could not supply us.
Per the following, Virgin Australia gets a bunch of MAX jets sooner than they should have
“Virgin Australia’s CEO John Borghetti also disclosed this morning that it had somehow persuaded Boeing to deliver its order for at least 23 of its massively ordered 737 MAX series jets a year early starting in 2018.”
It seems to me that there is a lot of speculation going on with orders that are then magically opened up in the single aisles. What happens when the confluence occurs and no one needs or want to move up and they have to pony up?
It still seems there is a lot of prime mortgage like activity going on, musical chairs when suddenly half the chair are gone?
Bombadier news
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-08-29/bombardier-cseries-jet-suffers-blow-as-first-operator-backs-away
And there is this (may require AV week log in, basicly A380s issue with airport dwell time and affecting ops. ) London and LA most affected
http://awin.aviationweek.com/ArticlesStory.aspx?id=bef25417-d6ee-45bc-9c07-9efeeac0fd80
No free lunch though they do have some work arounds. New planning most not an issue and will see about the spacing, list 2010 as the last analysis and it seems no one has done anything with the data which seem odd.