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Introduction

May 5, 2015: c. Leeham Co. The order for 10 Boeing 777-300ERs last month by United Airlines was a welcome addition to the backlog for the Classic line, but it remains a struggle for Boeing to obtain enough orders, or convert options and LOIs, to bridge the production gap to the entry-into-service for the 777-9, currently planned for 1H2020.

Boeing would like to advance the EIS to late 2019, but this may be challenging.

Boeing currently has a backlog of 271 Classic 777s (including the UA order). Through the end of 2019, Boeing needs to deliver 466 Classics if it is to maintain the current production rate of 100 per year. Boeing is sold out this year, largely sold out next year, half sold out in 2017 and some delivery slots are taken up in 2018, according to CEO Jim McNerney.

But the need for more Classic sales doesn't end on 12/31/19 because of the normal production cut-over and ramp-up of a new airplane type.

Summary

• Through 2019 Boeing needs to sell and/or convert options for 195 777 Classics, or an average of 43 per year from May 1.
• "Feathering" in production from the Classic to the 777X increases the challenge.
• Production rate cut remains inevitable, in our estimation.