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Introduction

Airbus A320neo. Source: Airbus

Sept. 7, 2015, © Leeham Co. Airbus is oversold in its A320 family positions as it transitions from the ceo to the neo, an analysis shows.

The first delivery of the A320neo is scheduled for December. Airbus plans to phase out the A320ceo family over two years (as does Boeing with the 737NG in favor of the 737MAX).

We analyzed the 737NG bridge to the 737MAX last week and concluded Boeing faces a production gap of between 100-200 aircraft, depending on how delivery dates of 737MAXes for Unidentified customers are scheduled. We indirectly received push back from Boeing on this, which we also address in today's report.

Summary

• Airbus is oversold in 2016 and 2017.
• A gap appears in 2018, but this depends in part how "TBA" delivery dates are allocated for Unidentified customers.
• Boeing says Options and Overbooked orders fill its apparent 737 gap.
• We update our 737 production gap analysis to include Options and find a gap still exists.
• Boeing wants to accelerate MAX deliveries from 2018 into 2017.