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Introduction

June 16, 2016, © Leeham Co.: A middle of the market airplane will come before a replacement for the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737, predicts Alan Epstein, vice

Alan Epstein, VP technology and environment, Pratt & Whitney.

president of technology and the environment for Pratt & Whitney.

“The challenge to the business of the narrow-bodies is the A320s and the 737s are so learned-out that Boeing and Airbus are so efficient at building those airplanes, that their inherent cost is so low, it’s extremely difficult to move into that market,” Epstein said. “Because the learning curve, you need incredibly deep pockets and you’re going to be negative for a long time.

“I think that also applies to Airbus and Boeing,” Epstein said, referring to the prospect of a new single-aisle aircraft.

Summary

• New single aisle airplane would be a “white elephant” for 10 years.
• Engines need to be at least 10% more efficient than today’s GTF and LEAP for a new single-aisle aircraft.
• Middle-Market airplane likely to come first.