Assessing ATR future

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Introductions

Feb. 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: ATR today holds an almost monopolistic position in the large turbo-prop market with 87% of the backlog at YE2016. Bombardier, once the dominant turbo-prop manufacturer, has a mere 13%.

China and Russia are not included above.

ATR had a backlog of 212 aircraft vs Bombardier’s 31. In addition, ATR had options for more than 400 aircraft and LOIs for about 70 more. BBD had options for just 12 Q400s at the end of last year.

Summary
  • Low fuel prices favor regional jet, high fuel prices turbo-props.
  • No new, clean-sheet design to replace Q400 or ATR in foreseeable future.
  • Indian, Indonesia talk turbo-props but outcome unlikely.
  • China’s MA-60 feeds home market, but airplane has reliability issues.

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