Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
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Farnborough: Good days for Embraer, 777F
July 18, 2018, © Leeham News, Farnborough: Embraer came roaring back in the first two days of the Farnborough Air Show after a slow year last year.
Boeing’s 777F saw a surge of orders and commitments and the 747-8F also landed some new commitments.
Through Tuesday, the Brazilian manufacturer announced orders, options and commitments for 265 members of the E1 and E2 EJet families.
These are:
E1 Family
Republic Airways, Letter of Intent for up to 200 E175s (100 firm+100 option), with conversion rights to the E2 is the US Scope Clause is revised to allow for the heavier airplane.
E2 Family
Helvetic Airways: Letter of Intent for up to 24 E2s consisting of 12 E190-E2s and 12 E195-E2.
Kuwait’s Wataniya Airways: order for 10 E195-E2s.
Azul: Letter of Intent for 21 E195-E2s.
Letter of Intent with an Undisclosed customer from Spain for up to 5 E195-E2s
Unspecified
Mauritania Airlines: two E175s..
Letter of Intent with NAC for three E190s.
Boeing 777
DHL: 14 777Fs
Volga-Dnepr/CargoLogicHolding: LOI 29 777Fs, Order, 5 747-8Fs.
The 777F deal is a major boost for the production bridge between the 777 Classic and the 777X, which has been soft. Without a delivery schedule, it’s impossible to determine today if the bridge finally solid.
The 747-8F order recalls an announced order by Volga at an air show several years ago for 25 747-8Fs. Most of the orders were never firmed up.
Thanks, Scott. You’re THE MAN! Can tell you’re a little tired…a couple of typos.
Love you, brother.
Norm
Writing at 4am after 4 hours of sleep never works well.
Well I usually manage to hash things up after a good nights sleep so no worries!.
Run out orders for 777F?. Can’t see them building the 777 classic once the 777X is up to speed
The plan is to keep making at least the 777F for some time.
The economics doesnt make sense. Sure some of the new 777X features have been bought into the existing 777 line but then running 2 different wing production lines and GE having a small number of GE90s in production as well.
The smoke signals are saying buy them while you can but the detail of the order numbers would be in delivery dates ,normally a slow buy is normal for freight companies. Fast deliveries means the great deals on offer are ‘for a limited time’
All is quiet from Bombardier so far. I wonder if they will end up getting any CRJ or Q400 orders at Farborough? Time will soon tell.
Maybe Boeing knew what they were doing with Embraer after all. Shocking I tell you.
Embraer’s good days are heavy on commitments and LoIs, there aren’t many firm orders in the bunch (maybe only 10 or 12?). How solid are those LoIs?
There are 168 firm orders for Embraer that is not counting options and LOIs which adds another 151 to the total.
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/analysis-farnborough-air-show-order-tracker-2018-450277/
So now the M.O. for commentators here is to bash Embraer, got it.
It’s a good show for all, it seems. Airbus forecast 400 sales at the show, so some big announcements must be pending. I thought the 777 bridge was filled 5 or so months back, but whatever.
Bash? No. But usually I prefer to count firm orders, and that goes for all manufacturers. LoIs are non-binding by definition.
I think the better news is that the 747-8F got 5 more orders.
The 777F is going to get its orders, its just a matter of when and while this is nice, not huge surprise (the numbers are nice for sure)
At rate 6 a year, the 747-8F gets extended another year.
Boeing clearly is working something out with Triumph. Maybe a faster build rate for a while and then transition the panels to Boeing or another vendor.
Anyone that wants a 747-8F in the futu4re has to be looking hard at when they can get them, and trying to futu8ure proof which is seriously difficult when slots are 4 years out (subject to juggling deliveries with UPS)
UPS clearly committed to the 747-8F with that big order. For them it may work out nicely.
Others? Get in line or try to get the production rate upped.
And those orders are firm!
And all the near term slots for C series are gobbled up.
Your next best option is the E2.
This is a much better balanced write up of the 797 vs the doom and gloom profits posted further down in the que.
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/boeing-working-intensely-to-firm-up-plans-for-proposed-797/
Yes it may not see the light of day. While I am antsy to see it, I am not the one making the decision that is a 10 billion dollar one either.
And what should not be overlooked, like the Sonic Cruiser, the work is never wasted. Its a deep dive into the possible, what might work and what the interest was.
The Sonic Cruiser was cool, but I never saw its benefit as it was so narrow cast as to be another Concord (Concord slow?)
The discussion though went towards the desire for the 787 slot. Management screw ups aside, its sold 1300, I see it running easily 2500 over the program life (and its priced 40 million less than the A330NEO which touted its paid for costs! (787-9 vs A330-900)
And in a twist, it would be interested to see a GP offering for the engine on the 797. GE and PW did an amazing job on the GP7000 (kicked the vaunted RR 900 severely in the shins)
So stay tuned, I am not depressed. I won’t be if it does not fly. I would be if they launched it and it was a failure.
More to come.
Yes the 787 is now a good plane after being practically redesigned but the early sales were for ‘deal of the decade’ prices
Amazing that people still try to trash the 787, it’s quite transparent.
Thanks TW, good link. This does indicate that some of the ‘normally’ later work is advancing indeed, perhaps mitigating the ATO to first flight/delivery timeline. I don’t think much of this sort of work could be productively done, without a firm configuration involving basic items such as airframe material/dimensions.
“McAllister said his dedicated NMA development team has brought forward work on the airplane design that is more typically done after a formal launch, checking out the airplane systems on various demonstrator testbeds ahead of any production work.
He gave no detail but this seems to mean things like an “Iron Bird,” a lab set-up that simulates the flight control system, and similar simulations of the jet’s electrical wiring and hydraulics.”
You are welcome.
Boeing had done a lot of advance work on composites in air-frame use and how to created them on the 787 as well. So while Airbus was surprise3d, Boeing did fine, far better than Airbus thought they could.
It will be interesting watching it going forward.
Airbus only response so far is tweaks to the A321LR. I am sure they can make more range, but unless they redo the wing and bigger engines and a stretch (all very major upgrades) it won’t come close to the 797 as envisioned.
The difference this time is I think Boeing will execute management right on the 797 (assuming its launched and is a viable build)
Clearly there is an A321 market, but as it stands its not a competitor for the 797 any more than the 737-9 was for the A321NEO.
Right, the A321XLR would not really overlap with a twin-aisle NMA. But it does limit the size of the available market, by offering a less expensive (operating and acquisition cost) option but with somewhat less range and capacity.
And is there a NMA market that has no aircraft flying it because there is no aircraft capable?
Back when fuel was cheap and fares set, not an issue.
For sure now.
No answer for sure as that is Airlines and Boeing private.
I do know there was no Japan San Jose, Japan Boston etc before the 787.
There was not really any need to go to San Jose before that time.
And as for Tokyo Boston , you can do it in A330 neo now, 13 .5 hrs
There is a reason why the news sales have been so weak. Doesn’t,t matter anyway considering the 787 beat the neo into service by almost a decade.
The 747-8F commitment from 2015 was for 20 frames to be acquired over 7 years. The MoU was finalized in 2016, and to date has had 8 orders firmed. The new order brings it up to 13 firm, and still leaves about 3 years over which they could still firm up the remaining 7.
It would be great if they come through.