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HOTR: Big airplane orders race toward year end

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Dec. 8, 2022, © Leeham News: A year-end aircraft order rush will benefit Airbus and Boeing, according to what LNA is hearing.

Air India

Airbus appears in line to win 50-100 A350 orders from Air India. Boeing appears in line to win an order from the carrier for 100 new-build 737 MAXes and—get this—40 MAXes that were built for China and which have been in storage since 2019. As previously reported, there were about 140 MAXes built for the Chinese. Boeing said in September it couldn’t wait any longer for China to reopen the domestic market to Boeing for the MAXes. Remarketing the airplanes began then.

The Boeing order could be signed as early as this week or next. The Airbus deal is expected by year-end.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is expected to agree to an order for around 50 A350s. The new airline, RIA, which will compete with the current flag carrier, Saudi, is expected to be the prime beneficiary. Airbus hopes to conclude the deal by year’s end if not earlier.

Boeing is not in line for an order this year, according to what HOTR hears. But negotiations begin soon.

United Airlines

In a poorly kept secret, United Airlines appears ready to place an order for up to 100 Boeing 787s. The future of its order for 45 A350s is up in the air.

A321XLR Special Condition

The Federal Aviation Administration issued a special condition for the integrated fuel tank for the Airbus A321XLR. The special condition requires thermal and acoustical insulation to be fire-resistant to protect passengers.

But part of the aft fuselage also forms part of the fuel tank wall. To LNA, this raises the question of foreign object debris damage that could penetrate the fuselage/fuel tank. Think Concorde.

Boom or Bust?

Boom’s SST may be weeks away from going Bust, figuratively speaking. CEO Blake Scholl in September vowed he’d announce an engine for the Boom Overture SST by year-end.

That deadline is just three weeks and two days away.

GE, Rolls-Royce, Safran, and Pratt & Whitney each said it’s not interested (the first three) or has other priorities (the latter).

 Category: Airbus, Boeing, Heard on the Ramp

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121 Comments on “HOTR: Big airplane orders race toward year end”

  1. A350 orders from Air India would be a nice way to end the year.
    The Boom™ thingie will be fun to watch (from a safe distance).

    Reply

    • Delta order is vapourware based off a forum whereby none of the major outlets have reported any such thing so I won’t hold my breath, they may have been looking at it but the slots may have very well gone to one of the two folks Scott has just mentioned in his Article

      Swiss order is not a new order just from the existing LH order book – they will be apportioned a slice

      https://www.scramble.nl/civil-news/swiss-plans-to-replace-a340s-with-a350s

      Emirates – Let’s see, but they’ve ordered and cancelled every wide body available so I don’t really know what to say about them. Let’s see how 777X unfolds but STC described it as a possible order on the drawing board.

      Cathay – there is no such rumour in specificity to the a350, they are looking at mid-haul replacements and no particular model has been identified by company executives or sources so your statement might as well include the 787,777X, 330NEO as well

      Nonetheless, if airbus is able to bring these through this year it will be good for their wide body order book which was starting to look funny

      Reply

      • “Let’s see how 777X unfolds but STC described it as a possible order on the drawing board”

        In 2019, Emirates downsized its (firm) 777X order from 150 to 115.
        You think there’s a reversal on the cards?

        Emirates reversed its stance on the A350 because the airline’s original hot-and-high performance concerns turned out to be unfounded, and the A350 is now certified and flying.
        In contrast, concerns about the 777X are increasing rather than abating, and it still doesn’t even have a TIA.

        Reply

      • I don’t think CX is in a position to place an order for anything until/unless their traffic rebounds dramatically. EK will eventually have a fleet of 787, 777X and A350s but will probably change their mind on variants about 20 times before then!

        Reply

        • Yea CX is not owned by the Chinese government but its future is controlled by it. Swan song comes to mind.

          Reply

        • Initially I was also skeptical but I believe there’s a better chance now. We’ll see.

          Airlines make huge bets from time to time.

          Reply

  3. I wonder if it’s premature to start a betting pool regarding the future of the Boeing 777X.

    Swiss would seem like a good fit for an Airbus A350 order, for one.

    Reply

      • Just because it hasn’t been announced yet, doesn’t mean that he hasn’t killed it 😏

        Reply

        • This.. if there’s another announced “delay” after this latest
          one, it’s sayonara for the Boeing 777X, I think.

          Reply

  4. Goodness all around.
    Air India, once a dedicated all Boeing operator, making the sound decision for a superior wide body. The mad max deal…. Well that’s gotta be a steal and too hard to pass up. Plus the outside services I’m sure Boeing gave away to seal the deal.

    Airbus will get their FAA requirements nailed down, that will not be a worry with this well managed project.

    Tim Clark are you paying attention?
    Noting no 777X orders or none in the pipeline, humm 🤔

    Reply

    • Tired argument…

      Seems they went with what they could get quicker on both sides, with airbus bleeding wide body commitments (Qatar, Air Asia X, United) on both wide body programs, that does not come as a shock to me.

      But superior? not so sure, the numbers don’t lie. airbus’ whole wide body order book doesn’t even match the 787s order book, talk less of the 787 and 777X.

      But what you won’t write is the fact that on the narrow body side, airbus is the incumbent and they have been replaced by the 737 max, but that can never fit your narrative so why bother

      Reply

      • > But what you won’t write is the fact that on the narrow body side, airbus is the incumbent and they have been replaced by the 737 max <

        Please do tell us more..

        Reply

        • If you can read (I hope) the article. I wouldn’t have to 🙂

          Reply

        • Air India Express is a 737 fleet operator and many current Air India domestic routes will move to AI Express in the coming months to better complete with Indigo & Akasa. So I am assuming Air India will continue with A320 and Air India Express, the 737 fleet.

          Reply

      • @Nnaeto

        Point taken.
        Airbus is the incumbent, LMAO.
        If your eluding to that the mad max is a superior airframe compared to the A320, I strongly disagree.
        I worked for Boeing and for an airline, I know the 787 (and the 737 all the way from the originals)
        The 87 is a very good airframe with outstanding economics, no doubt, but so is the A350. Both are very competitive.

        At one time in my career at Boeing I worked in services and was involved with sales campaigns, I know how the deals work. Nothing wrong with this to win an airplane sale.
        I’m sure Airbus does the same.

        You have your opinion and I have mine.

        Reply

        • Nobody is talking about max superiority here. It is obvious inferior to the 320 family.

          I’m talking about the A350. Its ‘superiority’ clearly does not show in its order numbers can never really quite catch up to the 787. The A350 has 2 net orders this year, that is after all the freighter orders it got. Meanwhile the 787 has 15 net orders and had deliveries halted for half of the year

          Moreover, if you adjust for shaky orders (unlike airbus) you will see that the 787 order book is almost twice the size of the A350. But of course everybody chooses to ignore it. Fair enough, Boeing is not deserving of anybody’s praise but please the constant over excitement in the comment section of this news outlet on everything airbus is just extremely tired and actually doesn’t spur on critical conversations and arguments. Some people do but please sometimes it’s as though some of you are paid

          Reply

          • One airframer imagines it can discount its aircraft and push out its competitor(s). It backfired!?!

            How much BA is going to lose on the 87 program ATM?? Don’t you know?
            The renamed A220 is thriving, too.

          • @Nnaeto

            Perhaps you should read Scott’s book, Air Wars.

            I respect your opinion. I’ve worked on and around these jets for 47 years, I think I know them very well, including the engines. My son flies these jets and knows them very well.
            That being said, most who comment here have their opinions as well and we respect that. Sure we get heated sometimes with our passions.
            But the last 16 years I worked for Boeing I saw a company in decline and very dysfunctional, after those two mad max accidents and how the executives tried to cover up with how this jet was certified and pushed to service was beyond all ethical requirements we are taught to abide by. Even the FAA lost trust with Boeing. So has EASA and the CAAC.

            This explains why I’m critical with how they operate today and I’m not the only one who shares this sentiment.

          • @Nnaeto
            Exactly …!!! Totally agree
            You can totally ignore the sales of the 787, which ofcourse, is the ongoing theme here..but numbers don’t lie….
            They just cannot accept the fact that the 787 alone has outsold the 330 neo, and a350 combined by a comfortable margin…
            The Boeing blame game continues…
            Ongoing saga here!!!

          • @TC

            BA is a business enterprise, its *only* purpose is to make money, not losses.

          • Remember how BDS got into never-ending losses on defense contracts?? Which other major defense contractor suffered similar fate in recent years? Can you name one, just one??

          • “I’m talking about the A350. Its ‘superiority’ clearly does not show in its order numbers can never really quite catch up to the 787.”

            We now know that various shortcomings of the 787 have resulted in a program that will never generate a penny profit for BA.
            I doubt if many CEOs would classify that as a success.

            The same phenomenon has manifested itself in the MAX program, and probably also in the 777X and KC-46A programs.

            Bit of a pattern here: lots of orders, but no profit.

          • There’s a lot more to the 787’s domination of the market than its technical qualities. A great many were sold while Airbus dithered with the updated A330 as its offering, and great promises were made of its superiority over that offering, when we now know that actually there’s not a lot between them (see various Leeham analyses).. So this was definitely a case where “first to market” was an important factor

          • Couldn’t agree more. Still the usual suspects will bully you down

          • The A350 is larger, more capable and more expensive than the 787. If the 787 didn’t outsell the A350, then Boeing would have made an even bigger fubar of it than they already have.

            Also, there’s not much point in selling & building more, if you end up losing money on it.

        • @TC

          The only on going saga here is the 787 might have outsold the A330/A350…. For now. But the real numbers are in dispatch reliability, if you even understand what this means. The 787 was grounded for 123 days in 2013 for Li-ion battery fires and the fix was a band aide.
          It just recently got released for deliveries by the FAA after almost 2 years grounded for critical structural problems.

          Their quality problems continue to be atrocious and hence why the FAA and not Boeing provides oversight on airworthiness ticketing for both the 787 and the mad max.

          So go ahead and laugh, but this airdoc knows the truth.

          Reply

          • Yeah .we get it United is about to make the biggest blunder in history by ordering ,more than likely,the largest widebody order seen in years…
            I think I trust Uniteds’ judgement a bit more than yours.!!
            How can you not find it amusing ..
            Never fails, Boeing bags a mega order; ofcourse to be followed by the obligatory whining , complaining, and shame for not ordering anything from the other side of the pond …continues!!

          • TC

            You don’t need to get snarky.

            If you’ve read any of my previous comments in the past week about this UAL order you’d see I praised UAL and complemented Boeing.
            With this order, UAL will be the worlds largest 787 operator.

            My son and a few other friends work for UAL.
            I want nothing but success for them and frankly for Boeing. But I don’t think Boeing as we’ve known it will be even close to the same company it has been in 10 years. They are in serious headwinds.

          • Not every airline wants 787’s built in Charleston. The 737MAX vs A320neo economics are dependent on the routes you fly, pax, revenue, reliability, engine choice, warranties, existing tools and spares and use of containers if price is the same. Airbus can offer a more appetizing mix right now with A220, A320neo, A321neo’s on the table if the kitchen can deliver. Boeing has 737MAX 8’s is the freezer and can quickly deliver…

          • Claes:

            Now that is funny though Western Washington usually is above Freezing.

            There is no question Airbus has a better overall lineup in Single Aisle.

            The issue really is the contention the MAX is flawed (well the 787 is flawed, the 777X is flawed etc)

            The MAX-8 actually delivers a tad better economics than an A320.

            AK airlines is a good example in that the MAX suits all its needs and its happy to go all 737.

            But no, AK is evil because they don’t run a split fleet like some have decided they have to (good luck with that)

            Delta made a decision on the 787 some time ago. That is their call. I don’t think it was the right one but its their airline and their call.

            Nothing wrong with the choice of aircraft they made either. The only downside is what I heard from mechanics and that the Airbus FedEx flew were a pain to work on.

            The flip was true of the 777F and 767F. They realty liked them as far as working on them (more the 777F as we did not have a lot of 767F go through Anchorage).

            Management was equally effusive for their side of it for that pair.

            In some cases like Hawaiian its a price shootout and it was laughable to hear Airbus complain it was not fair Boeing undercutting them. How dare they!

            But in the case of the parked MAX, a small silver lining in that dark cloud of Boeing management putting a steel bar int he spokes of the wagon.

    • Surprised Air India is spending nearly 400 million to refurbish interiors on the existing Boeing 787/777 fleet…
      Obviously ,they don’t plan on parting with them anytime soon..
      Looks like the a350 order would compliment the Boeing widebody fleet,not replace !!!

      Reply

    • Funny when Airbus was wheeling and dealing giving toasters and mixers away with each airplane and promises to buy them back, that was all well and good.

      When Boeing wheels and deals, well, they are just evil. Hypocrisy comes to mind.

      And other than rampant speculation, no one can site a reason the 777X won’t be built.

      The issue is complying with a new found FAA doing its job and Boeing corporate not adjusting.

      But then the FAA has thrown the gauntlet down on the A321 fuselage fuel tank. Maybe we can trade the MAX cert for a fuel tank? Day 1, A321 Super LXM held hostage.

      While I detest Calhoun and his like, I continue to hope for the best for Boeing and that means with full on safety.

      And yes the MAX has an alert system, its just not the EICAS type and no one has ever shown probably cause in any accident or crash that the 737 alert system played a part.

      Reply

  5. I noted this in the side column article from Aviation Week about the problems still on going with the 787 production:

    “ But as Boeing’s latest quarterly earnings revealed in October, the company’s battle to recover from a rash of production problems that have plagued the program since 2019 will continue to be a burden for at least the next two years. Issues with surface-quality defects, shims, gaps and out-of-tolerance components twice brought deliveries to a standstill in late 2020 and again in 2021 and, despite fixes, remain a highly labor-intensive and expensive process to correct.”

    Translation, their production and rework costs are exceedingly out of whack.

    Reply

        • Airdoc:

          You loose quality control and you should pay the piper.

          Shims are ubiquitous in aircraft production, nothing new about that. The A350 needs shims, the A330 needs em and the 787 needs them.

          The 787 did not have a shim issue it had a quality control issue (two of them, failure to measure gaps right and the computer that spit out shims).

          So yea, we all know there are built 787s that they have to go back and fix and its going to take a couple of years.

          Headlines: The Sky is Blue!

          Reply

          • The word you’re trying to use in that context is “lose”, not “loose”.

  7. Emirates should have ordered the A350-1000 way back then and Emirates knows it. The 787-9 might be too small for Emirates but may work fit new routes in Africa etc. Emirates will be in good shape with 777-9, A350-1000, A350-900, and some 787-9.

    Reply

    • It concurrently said that the final delivery figure “won’t be materially lower” than 700.
      I’m reading estimates of 681 — which would be 97.28% of 700.
      But time will tell.

      Reply

      • -> I guess those who want [others] to believe airframer(s) deliver an equal number of aircraft each month have to learn a lesson.

        Reply

        • production rates are more consistent over 2- 3 month periods and
          also reckon for holiday periods and these last 2 years such things as engines from suppliers who have their own schedule
          * deliveries* are more variable as its time for the money

          Reply

          • How do you estimate the production rate? By delivery number?? 😂

    • Yep, you don’t meet what you said a month ago and then you spin it into materially but you sure do not provide what that means.

      They are going to fall 70 short.

      As I stated before, Airbus is taking on the shades of Boeing with PR spin machine.

      Why lie about it? Its been obvious for half the year it was not going to happen.

      Reply

      • We’ll see on Dec. 31.
        What we certainly know is that BA will definitely be “materially short” of earlier targets 🤔

        Reply

        • agreed, Airbus will pad the numbers to the point of them screaming for mercy.

          Reply

          • Can the poster explain how airframers pad the numbers to the point of them screaming mercy?
            What numbers you’re referring to exactly??

            Or is it just another example of baseless allegation, all talk and nothing but empty talk?? 😀

  9. Air India already has a decent fleet of 737s for their low cost Air India Express operations flying to near by countries. To better compete with Low cost carriers in the domestic market, I suspect they will be converting most of their Domestic routes flying to tier 2 &3 cities to Air India Express (Air Asia routes included) with the 737 Max and have Air India flying A320’s just between metros with premium offerings. They have a decent near new A320 fleet with Air Asia & Vistara plus the newly signed leases, so may be an order for some A320s as well?

    Reply

  10. Pedro

    …”BA is a business enterprise, its *only* purpose is to make money, not losses…”
    —
    Is it different for Airbus or Embraer or other?

    Reply

    • Actually Airbus has a mixed history in that regard and jobs are an important aspect of the UK/French/German and Spanish relationship with Airbus.

      Its a rare case of where the Governments were kept out of the decision making as long as Airbus created jobs.

      Over the years Airbus struggled to be independent but they still take money to launch a program.

      Its an interesting success story in that the worst of the US system is manifested at Boeing now and the best of the European system is manifested at Airbus.

      Boeing management is purely on the pillage side of the equation. So, Boeing could well be out of the LCA business in 20 years.

      Reply

  11. TC

    …”The Boeing blame game continues…
    Ongoing saga here!!!…
    —
    Perhaps the testimony of a deep malaise? There is indeed a lynching against Boeing

    Reply

    • Ah, yes: the often-attempted defense strategy of trying to portray the perpetrator as being a victim.
      Won’t work — too much dirty laundry.

      Reply

  12. Airdoc

    “…Their quality problems continue to be atrocious and hence why the FAA and not Boeing provides oversight on airworthiness ticketing for both the 787 and the mad max…”

    —-
    This has been resolved since the reintroduction of the MAX in 2020 and the 787 this year…

    Reply

    • Pedro

      “Dream turns into nightmare!!”
      —–

      It is true that the merged Mc Donnel Douglas has been a real management nightmare for over 20 years… What will Calhoun do if the MAX-10 is not certified. It will be IMHO, the real challenge in 2023…

      Also I see for Boeing haters, an opportunity that Mc DD is present within Boeing since the merger. A happy event in history for the survival of Airbus?

      Not everything that happened was by chance

      Reply

      • Bill7: “Chance favors those prepared.”

        Same covid, two airframers. Two outcomes.

        Reply

    • “This has been resolved since the reintroduction of the MAX in 2020 and the 787 this year…”

      -The FAA still hasn’t returned sign-off authority to BA.
      – All MAXs in the EU still need to be fitted with a third (synthetic) AOA sensor input.
      – The MAX is still at the centre of an EICAS controversy in the US.
      – The MAX is still grounded in China, because CAAC condition #3 hasn’t been met.

      And you call that “resolved”?

      Reply

      • Brice, ..

        This list is just sarcasm. The 737MAX flies well, safely and has reached 100,000 passengers since its reintroduction in late 2020…

        Reply

          • Lol ! What “classic denial” are you talking about? I tell you that the 737MAX has reached the milestone of 100 million passengers transported since its reintroduction at the end of 2020. I would add that it is already more than 2017-2019, before grounding and more than the first 3 years since the introduction 737NG in 1997-2000

            Classic denialism

          • @ Checklist
            Regulators / lawmakers evidently aren’t impressed by your figures.
            They’re — understandably — more interested in the shortcomings that caused those two appalling crashes and that haven’t yet been fully addressed.

            Same applies to media outlets: remember that recent ABC article detailing all those serious manufacturing-quality-related mid-air incidents/emergencies that have occurred on MAXs since re-cert? Including a grounding of 100 frames due to an electrical issue?

            The big orders announced since MAX re-cert have been at huge pricing discounts –there’s a reason for that.

  13. It’s easy to understand why Air India is interested in MAX whitetails: it needs quick delivery in order to compete with the various up-and-running LCCs that are eating a huge slice of the Indian shorthaul cake.
    New competitor Akasa — although only founded in 2021 — already has 9 MAX whitetails generating revenue, and is receiving about 1 per month at present.
    Also, the pricing on an unloved 3-4 year-old whitetail is probably spectacular — and that will be a plus when trying to compete with other LCCs on ticket pricing.

    Reply

    • Rather correct analysis.. But why “unloved”?

      I see here a great opportunity for Indian companies among others. It is an “easy acquisition”, of an efficient and very popular aircraft.

      Don’t forget that Covid and the grounding have been there and that in terms of Boeing cancellation, Airbus Embraer have certainly been affected.

      Reply

    • “But why “unloved”?”

      If the MAX whitetails had been loved, they’d already have been sold off — after all, they’re going at a bargain price.
      But not everyone is attracted by a 3-4 year-old frame that’s been sitting outdoors up in damp Washington State.

      Regarding the MAX in general: it’s not really an option at present for airlines planning to expand their flights into China — which is, after all, the fastest-growing aviation market globally. That’s not a problem for Air India (because of the cool relationship between the countries), but it is a problem for other airlines in Asia/Pacific.

      Reply

  14. A321 XLR certification:
    The “special condition” decreed by the FAA inevitably makes us think of the Concorde accident. How to avoid a catastrophic failure in case of projection by the landing gear of an object travelling at speeds around 150 kt? Is the solution the one adopted in retrofit on Concorde or the use of new alloys for this section or ? What is “comforting” is that the EASA and Airbus have acquired experience on this subject: Concorde and A340-500 (with Rear Center Tank) for example. Each type of aircraft has a specific geometry and different certification bases that are more and more demanding, which makes the design more sophisticated. However, despite the extraordinary means of simulation available today, I wonder if specific flight tests and ground material specimen tests would not be necessary to validate them, thus justifying the 3-6 month delay recently announced on this program.

    Reply

    • I don’t know I will be comforted as the rear of a jet has been one of the areas that at times was the only part that passengers survived.

      I don’t see any of the experience translates to what Airbus is trying to do.

      Sadly the only test that counts is a crash as the modeling variables or even tests don’t grasp the complexity of a crash. Boeing and its nail test on a Li Ion battery being the worst of the examples.

      Reply

  15. Hope Boom can make an engine deal with USAF that allows putting the F119 or F135A engine in it. To have it locked so only the USAF or PWA can remove it and service it and initially keep it under Military registration/Certification for a small but important market like an X aircraft. Later other US operators can use it but never touch the engine or fly to non friendly countries, in the future have the certified XA100/XA101 engines fitted that would benefit performance. Otherwise it is bust for them as well.

    Reply

    • Ordering 120t 788’s to replace 90t 767 domestically? 250 737-10s that remain to be certified, 789s for the Pacific, downsizing from the 772ER’s. Fuel guzzling 77W’s that will remain in the fleet for another 15 years.

      Not sure if all this is brilliant fleet strategy.

      Reply

      • Well there is no good 767 replacement- A321 a lot smaller (and UA has ~300+ 737-10/A321s on order) and A338 is just as bad as 788 while having no fleet commonality with anything else.

        And considered pre Covid Transpacific yields were approaching trash as Chinese airlines flooded the market with cheap seats I don’t think UA would see downgrading heavier 77Es for lighter and slightly smaller 789s as a huge negative…

        You are making the common mistake of assuming that aircraft capability decisions made ~25+ years are still valid/desired today.

        Reply

    • That article is wrong or out of date. Boeing has invited reporters to a special announcement at their CHS production facility involving the CEOs of both UA and Boeing Commerical on December 13th. You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to figure out what will be announced there-just a question of how many.

      Reply

  18. It will be interesting to see if the Air India / RIA A350s are configured 9-abreast or 10-abreast in economy (assuming the orders go ahead).
    More broadly: it will be interesting to see which world airline — if any — goes for 10-abreast.

    Reply

  19. COMAC has delivered the first C919 to China Eastern Airlines:

    “China Eastern Airlines Corp. became the first recipient of the Chinese-made C919 passenger jet Friday, a milestone in the country’s aviation ambitions as it bids to compete with aircraft made by Airbus SE and Boeing Co.

    “The single-aisle plane was delivered to China Eastern at Pudong International Airport in Shanghai and then made a short flight to the city’s Hongqiao Airport, landing at midday.”

    https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/12/09/China-delivers-first-homegrown-plane-to-take-on-Boeing-Airbus

    Reply

    • Or it should read, Comrade, you will take this aircraft or else!

      China has cranked out all of 7 ARJ21 a month. Yee hah.

      Reply

  20. Brice

    “Regulators / lawmakers evidently aren’t impressed by your figures.
    They’re — understandably — more interested in the shortcomings that caused those two appalling crashes and that haven’t yet been fully addressed.”…

    —-

    And that’s why I called this sarcasm… It’s been a very long time since the crashes, and nearly two years since it was returned to service. Hence my point. Deny it if you want but it’s sarcasm…

    —-
    “The big orders announced since MAX re-cert have been at huge pricing discounts –there’s a reason for that.”…
    —-
    I don’t know, neither you nor I are people close to the file…

    Reply

    • First point:
      You evidently have a very weird definition of “sarcasm”.
      No matter how long it’s been since the crashes or the RTS, the root causes are still being addressed, and the MAX is still stuck in a regulatory limbo. Remember that the RTS in the EU was only provisional, there’s no RTS in China, and — as the law currently stands — two variants don’t satisfy cert requirements in the US.

      *********

      Second point:
      We do know, actually.
      For example, from SEC filings, we know that Southwest paid about $35M per 737-7 — which represents a 65% discount, and essentially leaves BA with no margin.

      Reply

      • An “alternate” definition of “sarcasm”, not dissimilar to the poster’s “alternate” interpretation of facts.

        Reply

  21. Brice,

    “We do know, actually.
    For example, from SEC filings, we know that Southwest paid about $35M per 737-7 — which represents a 65% discount, and essentially leaves BA with no margin…”

    —
    Please don’t extrapolate the facts, this is ONLY about Southwest

    Reply

    • And you don’t think that, with published pricing data from Southwest in hand, notorious bargain-drivers like Ryanair and Delta will have demanded a similar deal?
      Why do you think that BA is going to great lengths to prevent revelation of its MAX pricing data in subpoenad documents in the Qatar-Airbus lawsuit?
      It’s because when bargain pricing leaks out, everyone wants a similar deal.

      Reply

  22. Brice

    “No matter how long it’s been since the crashes or the RTS, the root causes are still being addressed, and the MAX is still stuck in a regulatory limbo. Remember that the RTS in the EU was only provisional, there’s no RTS in China, and — as the law currently stands — two variants don’t satisfy cert requirements in the US…”
    —-

    The root cause was only MCAS and it has been resolved. China ? A joke, he was allowed to fly. The truth is ONLY politics, a trade war between the USA and China nothing more

    Europe has also authorized

    The MAX8 flew, and was re-certified with the MAX9 from the MAX7 no yet certified for the last

    Admit it, this a strange
    Now, you know what the definition of the word “sarcasm”…

    Reply

    • @ Checklist
      I don’t know whether you’re trying to fool others, or just fool yourself.

      The MAX RTS is the EU is only provisional — pending at least two changes that are required to be backfitted to all models, starting very soon. This matter has been extensively covered here and in various other media.

      China published three conditions that need to be met for MAX RTS. Condition number 3 hasn’t been met. If you want to call that “politics”, then feel free to do so.

      In addition to MCAS, lack of EICAS was also identified as a contributing factor in both MAX crashes, and in three 737NG crashes. That’s why Congress passed a law mandating EICAS on new certs after Dec. 27 this year. It’s also at the core of CAAC RTS condition #3, and was brought up in the EASA RTS AD 2 years ago.

      The MAX is still a slow-motion trainwreck.

      Reply

      • The media brought this as a victory for certification in the world

        Then, why have the 737MAX8 and 9 certified if they do not meet the conditions?

        That is what is misleading…

        Reply

        • Perhaps you should spend more time reading the available publications on this subject?
          Well-informed people tend not to get “misled” so easily.

          Reply

        • Checklist:

          The reason there is no response is there is none that is not laughable.

          None of the MAX issues were related to the alert system, nor has any 737 crash been determined to be an alert system issue.

          Like all legislation, stuff gets in that makes no sense, stuff slips in. It makes no sense but there it is.

          EICAS in a nutshell. No one is going to make a LCA that does not have EICAS, been true since the 767 (though I would rather have lights than that tiny screen on the 757/767) Colloquially known as idiot lights, it gets your attention. The Aircraft tells you, I hurt and this is where I hurt. You don’t have to scroll through screens trying to read print while the aircraft goes into a stall. Ever try to find something on a computer screen vs a book? Yep, there is a reason we still have books. Maint guys have computers, and what do they do? Yep, they print out that area of the book so they can actually work with it.

          The rule of Aviation is Aviate first not scroll through computer screens.

          What it boils down to is a red hearing to berate Boeing.

          Same as when Airbus played shenanigans with aircraft orders and always has pulled end of the year stunts. Its getting worse with denials as well.

          Guys, make sure we get half a wing on so we can count it in this year produion, shoot, just get the wings close and it will pass the smell test.

          Reply

          • “The rule of Aviation is Aviate first not scroll through computer screens.”

            Difficult to aviate with counterproductive and non-informative horns screaming, lights flashing and sticks shaking…

  23. My analysis on the upcoming RIA A350 order :

    This quarrel between Ryad and Washington, which will benefit Airbus and the A350 which seems clearly political, could ultimately be a bullet fired in the foot at MBS, and its new company RIA.

    Indeed, if the delays in deliveries of the 777X to its neighbor Emirates is a known cause, For the A350s it seems that this delay is more vague
    (term rejection à la United?) The delivery seems to scare the CEO Tim Clark who has was shocked at the resistance content of Ultra Violet rays in hot climates in the CFRP A350 fuselage.

    The sellers of competitor Boeing should put pressure on MBS/RIA if they don’t want to have bad surprises term

    I’m really looking forward to seeing the A350 order come to fruition to see where this story will go which will definitely be fun because when problems arise, it will very “dangerous” for a new MEA to order the A350 type alone Imho…

    Reply

  24. @Checklist, @Bryce, others: You’re straying into personally attacking each other. Knock it off.

    Hamilton

    Reply

  27. Keesje

    “Could you place a number of political driven aerospace sales to the Saudi’s over the last 25 yrs? I couldn’t…”
    —

    It’s true. I simply forgot it. But on one side or another there was politics. It’s not exclusively Boeing.

    That was my point

    Thanks

    Reply

    • Checklist:

      You just have to accept trying to interject logic or facts (or even humor) fails in the face of a position that never changes regardless.

      Airbus cut deals and did some bizarre stuff to get a foot in the door. How dare Boeing do that!

      I am interested to see what Airbus does not they are the leader? We are seeing them taking on the outright lies that Boeing has engaged in now.

      By the way, the 680 figure is now the behind the scenes materially not different than 700 though experts think is more like 620.

      Reply

      • Deliveries are currently at 599.
        That’s +34 in the past 9 days.
        22 more days to go in December 👀

        Reply

  28. According to this site, the United order will be announced next Tuesday:

    “United is holding an event on Tuesday with Boeing at the aircraft manufacturer’s facility in South Carolina. They are expected to announce a major order for Boeing 787 long haul aircraft.”

    “These new planes will come with the same economy and premium economy seats United currently uses on their Boeing 787-10 aircraft, however business class with be a new seat – ‘next generation Polaris’ – which offers suites with doors – as noted by aviation watchdog JonNYC.”

    https://viewfromthewing.com/united-will-announce-a-boeing-787-order-on-tuesday-theyll-come-with-a-new-business-class-suite/

    Reply

    • Is there some confusion at Reuters here?

      Are there really 50 MAX waiting for China Southern? Or are they referring to MAX for various Chinese airlines?

      The term “immediately deliver” needs to be taken with a large grain of salt as well.

      Reply

      • I certainly agree with your second point: I suspect that the “immediate delivery” syntax came from an Indian source, and that language nuances may have caused some distortion. “Short-term delivery” is probably more accurate, as is happening with Akasa Air.

        Similar considerations probably pertain to your first point: China Southern is probably *just one* of the airlines involved in the whitetail fleet.

        One way or another, the messaging seems to confirm (the gist of) LNA’s reporting, i.e. that Air India is attracted by whitetail MAXs that are available relatively quickly. It’s interesting to note that, as currently reported, the airline only appears to want to give a firm order for the 50 ex-China frames — any additional MAXs will be options.

        Reply

      • It’ll probably take years for BA to complete delivery of those supposedly “immediately deliver” aircraft

        Reply

    • It’s also reported:
      “However, Airbus still could win a portion of the narrow body orders from the airline that’s likely to want more than 150 such aircraft.”

      Reply

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