Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing CEO promises company is turning around…again April 24, 2024
- Solid start for stand-alone GE Aerospace despite cuts to LEAP output April 23, 2024
- SPEEA, Boeing at impasse over safety program, union says April 23, 2024
- Better transparency needed on Boeing’s 1Q earnings call April 22, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 4. Propulsive efficiency April 19, 2024
Reports from the Airbus neo event
Our partner at AirInsight, Addison Schonland, has posted additional reports from his attendance to the Airbus neo event April 5.
Tom Williams, EVP briefing.
John Leahy’s briefing. This is different than the one-on-one interview Addison had.
Keeping the A320 in production to 2030 decade.
Airbus, the NEO program and an interview with John Leahy
Airbus held a media day today about the A320neo; we were scheduled to go to Toulouse for this event but circumstances required we stay in Seattle, so our partner at AirInsight, Addison Schonland, made the journey.
He obtained an exclusive interview with John Leahy, COO Customers. Here is his report. Addison will have additional reports later in the week.
Odds and Ends: Three drivers for Bombardier; PW GTF gains momentum
1. JP Morgan looks at Bombardier
Aerospace analyst Joe Nadol has an interesting take on Bombardier and the next 12 months. Nadol begins with, “We believe Bombardier may be better positioned now than at any time in the 10+ years we’ve followed the stock,” and continues:
Three Important BBD Drivers: 1) CSeries, 2) CSeries, 3) CSeries. With the business jet and train businesses both poised for solid earnings growth, the CSeries is now clearly set as the key likely driver of the stock. There are two primary issues here. The first is demand, and we believe the program needs to start racking up more orders this year, even by the Paris Air Show in June. We believe there is a high level of interest, and we are fairly confident Bombardier will sell more aircraft. The partnership with Comac that Bombardier announced last week seems to foreshadow meaningful Chinese orders. Bombardier also has nearly $12 bil in financing for CSeries aircraft available from Chinese sources. The second issue is execution. Management noted that Bombardier still expects to fly the aircraft next year and also highlighted some recently achieved milestones for the engine. However, Flight reported in recent weeks that the date for first flight may have slipped by a few months into next fall, so the program does appear to be experiencing at least the normal level of fits and starts. Thus far, the CSeries appears on track overall, but execution obviously remains a major overhang given the complexity of the program and the well-known problems the industry has had meeting cost and schedule targets in recent years.
Boeing WTO panel report released; podcast with Airbus and Boeing
The WTO released the public version of its report on the illegal subsidies for Boeing. There are plenty of stories on the Internet to choose from, so we won’t recap it all here. We have said and still say a pox on both houses.
But here is a 10 minute podcast by AirInsight of an interview with Airbus’ Alan McArtor, Chairman of Airbus Americas.
Here is a slightly longer podcast with Boeing’s top WTO official.
Indigo selected PW GTF for NEO
Indigo Airlines of India selected the PW P1000G Geared Turbo Fan for its order of 150 Airbus A320neos.
We’re at the PW Media Day and will be filing additional reports today. Up to this point, most of the activities have been associated with military and space programs, which we don’t follow closely.
We did confirm that PW is providing the PW 4000 for the KC-46A tanker. There had been some minor speculation that the secretive Boeing bid might have included plans for a 767-sized GTF; this isn’t the case.
Odds and Ends: Orient Aviation’s profile of John Leahy
This is an abbreviated Odds and Ends; we are traveling this week and next and we’re not sure if we’ll have the chance to update while we are on the road. Meantime:
Orient Aviation magazine has a cover story profile of John Leahy, COO of Customers, and it’s a good one.
FlightGlobal has a long piece about the new competitors to Airbus and Boeing.
This is a frightening story about construction at Chicago’s O’Hare Airport.
An Australian TV station has a special on the Qantas A380/Rolls-Royce incident.
George Talbot of The Mobile Press-Register takes a look at how all the analysts and pontificaters were flummoxed by the Boeing win on the tanker.
Odds and Ends: Airbus wants to advance NEO EIS by six months; name that tanker
1. Airbus wants to advance NEO EIS six months
Airbus wants to advance the entry-into-service of the A320neo by six months, to October 2015, we have learned. Airbus plans to introduce the neo in six month increments (A320neo followed by A321neo followed by A319neo). Airbus has more than 300 orders and commitments for the 320/321 and none for the 319. With Boeing increasingly talking about a new airplane in 2019, any advance Airbus can get for EIS on the neo will be beneficial.
Pratt & Whitney can probably meet this requirement. It will have versions of the GTF in service with Bombardier in 2013 and with Mitsubishi in 2014. Testing on the Irkut MS-21, a competitor to the A320/321, is to begin in 2014 with an EIS planned for 2016 (though we believe the MS-21 will likely be later than 2016).
Whether CFM can have the LEAP-X ready for a NEO 2015 EIS is unknown. CFM has yet to be selected for a NEO order (this is only a matter of time, though). The LEAP-X is in development for the COMAC C919, also a competitor to the 320/321. Flight testing is planned for 2014 and EIS for 2016 but we think the C919 will run years late, just as did the ARJ-21. Can CFM shave six months off its flight testing to meet an advanced NEO EIS when it is disadvantaged to PW’s CSeries and MRJ operating experience? We don’t know.
Over at Boeing, Aspire Aviation has this think-piece about the “737X.”
2. Airbus ponders slight larger A350-1000
The A350-1000 is aimed directly at the Boeing 777-300ER, but it is slightly smaller at 350 passengers vs 365 in typical three-class. Boeing, and others, question whether Rolls-Royce’s Trent XWB engine is big enough for the -1000 (Airbus, not surprisingly, said that it is). But we learned that Airbus is considering a 380 passenger -1000 and 50 miles more range to make it sure to do Dubai-Los Angeles non-stop. For this, the Trent XWB needs 5,000 lbs more thrust, and Rolls has been asked to figure this out.
In our view, this is the airplane Airbus needs to take on the -300ER.
Rolls-Royce, PW may be feuding but extend IAE to 2045
The feud between Rolls-Royce and Pratt & Whitney over patent infringements is nasty and in court, and the Rolls-Royce view that it doesn’t think much of the PW Geared Turbo Fan technology is well known, but speculation that this would lead to the dissolution of International Aero Engines in which both are partners can now be put to rest.