Boeing’s 737 ramp up shows confidence in economy, ‘skyline’ and the unions

The announcement last week that Boeing once again is planning to ramp up production of its venerable 737 line show confidence on a number of levels:

  • The global economy continues to recover;
  • The strength of the backlog, aka “skyline,’ is strong;
  • The efficiency of the Lean production line only gets better; and
  • The confidence in the labor unions (notably IAM 751) appears to be gaining strength compared with the depths of anger following the 2008 57-day strike and the October 2009 decision to put the second assembly line for the 787 in Charleston (SC).

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KC-767 cost advantage over KC-45

Boeing has released the results of a study it commissioned on the life-cycle cost advantage of the KC-767 vs. the KC-45, this time using a firm we’ve actually heard of and greatly respect: AeroStrategy.

AeroStrategy analyzed 10 scenarios, fuel price escalation, maintenance, and a variety of other factors to conclude that over the life of the program, the KC-767 will cost $11bn-$36bn less than a fleet of KC-45s.

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787 stands down suppliers third time

Boeing has implemented its third, 30-day stand-down for its supply chain on the 787 program. Says Boeing:

As we have previously indicated, when opportunities arise we distribute flow in our production system to make the most efficient use of resources by ourselves and our global partners. We periodically align our production plans to meet adjusted customer needs, taking advantage of this flexibility in the market to further strengthen the 787 production system. This technique of balancing deliveries to most efficiently manage flow and customer requests within the production system is a common practice for our airplane programs.

Odds and Ends

A350: Development is running 6-8 months late, says a key supplier. This supplier believes there is still a chance Airbus will deliver the A350 in 2013, as promised, but it will be close.

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Tanker update

It’s been a while since we’ve talked about the KC-X tanker competition, which is coming to the forefront again with the issuance of the Interim Report on Boeing subsidies by the WTO.

  • Flight International has this story citing Ralph Crosby, chairman of EADS North America, talking about costs and process in the competition.
  • The Telegraph of the UK has this story about the boondoggle lease deal of A330 MRTTs for the Royal Air Force. A reminder of how lease deals such as that proposed by Boeing in 2001 for the USAF (and killed because of the pricing and improprieties) can be way too costly, the UK MRTT deal is also an example of how dopey specifications can ruin a good idea. The UK DOD didn’t require combat-ready specifications (note to critics: this wasn’t an Airbus failing but a Department of Defence failing) for the MRTT. The UK situation also is indicative of old tanker-transports in need of replacement, just like the US KC-135. Most notably of the parallels is this statement in The Telegraph’s story: But in an era of budget shrinkage, how we buy equipment is as important as what we buy. The AirTanker deal is only the most obvious example of a procurement process that takes too long, costs too much and, even then, doesn’t always give us what we’re supposed to get.

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Boeing WTO report due today

Update, 6:45pm PDT: Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times updated his 12:45pm snippet eight minutes ago with far more detail, and as of this moment represents the most detailed news report we’ve seen.

As before, both sides are in major spin control, and as before, we will continue to withhold our judgment until the Final Report is issued months from now. But we will note that in the Airbus case when the Interim Report was issued, it turned out the USTR/Boeing spin was (in our judgment) more on target overall than was the EU/Airbus spin.

Update, 4:30pm PDT: Boeing issued a follow-up statement, reproduced after the jump following their advance statement.

Update, 3:00pm PDT: As we did when the US complaint against Airbus came out, we are largely withholding our commentary because we don’t have access to the Interim Report and neither do the Airbus and Boeing spin machines, nor the politicians.

We urge caution in drawing conclusions. The various updates below show the wide variations of what is contained in the reports and we are skeptical of what any vested interest has to say.

We will withhold any of our definitive opinions for what will amount to months, when the Final Report comes out next year.

Update, 10:15 AM PDT: The first actual detail of the WTO Interim Report has leaked, with the BBC providing this report. Boeing got $20bn in illegal aid, says BBC.

BBC reports that $4bn in Washington State tax breaks are part of these.

10:30 AM PDT: As with the Airbus case, both sides are claiming a win.

Update, 12:45 PM: The Seattle Times reports Reuters (and, apparently, the BBC) had the amounts of the illegal subsidies provided Boeing as vastly overstated, and closer to $3bn instead of the $20bn initially cited by Reuters and BBC. If this set of leaks is accurate, this would be a clear victory for the US and not Europe, giving the US essentially two major victories. This could also be a big relief for the State of Washington. Although Gates’ story doesn’t detail precisely what was found illegal, the amounts cited cast doubt on just how much–if any–of the State tax breaks were illegal.

Update, 2:45 PM: The Financial Times of London has a story (free registration required) that paints a very different picture than The Seattle Times and US Boeing partisans. The Financial Times puts specific numbers on the findings, including a reported $5.7bn of illegal subsidies on the Boeing 787 alone. This is more than The Seattle Times is quoting for the entire Interim Report, based on the information it received.

The specificity of the numbers in The Financial Times is important vs. the generalities of some of the other report and statements, including those of the USTR.

Original Post:

The long-awaited and thrice-delayed WTO Interim Report on the alleged illegal subsidies provided Boeing is due to be issued to the EU and US governments today.

The Interim Report is confidential, but leaks are expects, just as they were when the WTO issued the Airbus report. It will be months before the final, public report is issued.

Boeing has already issued a statement in advance of the report (see after the jump). We’ll follow this throughout the day.

For Washington State, the $3.2bn in tax breaks (over 20 years) provided Boeing for the 787 are expected to be a major part of the case.

Here are a couple of selected stories in advance of today’s events:

KIRO-TV (Seattle): Boeing rejects negotiations.

Wall Street Journal: Boeing likely to lose WTO ruling.

AFP (France): Titantic battle goes to the wire.

Reuters: EU Win unlikely to dampen US push over Airbus.

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777-300ER, 737-800 top Airfinance Journal poll; A330, A320 close behind

Boeing’s 777-300ER once again topped the poll by aviation financial trade magazine Airfinance Journal, which has been doing the polling for as long as we can remember.

On a scale of 0-5, the 777 ranked 4.2, followed closely (but under 4.0) by the Airbus A330-200 and A330-300.

AFJ polls investors who finance or buy airplanes for their preferences.

Gary Liebowitz of Wells Fargo Securities published the rankings in his latest Liebo’s Leasing Letter.

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Voice of Watergate Past: Tanker date may be “inoperative”

It never ends.

Reuters has this story that the tanker award date may slip from the November 12 dated, but we shouldn’t be surprised, since we suggested as much quite a while ago.

What caught our attention is the wording of the USAF statement, as reported by Reuters:

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737 production rate hike, PW’s GTF, Airbus’ A320 NEO

We talk about the prospect of a production rate hike at AirInsight this morning.

  • Here’s a story from Flight Global taking a detailed, focused look at the Pratt & Whitney P1000G Geared Turbo Fan, which will power the Bombardier CSeries, Irkut MC-21 and Mitsubishi MRJ; and will likely be chosen by Airbus to power the A320 family New Engine Option.
  • Speaking of the A320 NEO, look for an announcement on September 30 or shortly thereafter giving the green light for this program.
  • Embraer is also considering whether to reengine its E-Jet series with the GTF.
  • Flight International has  this detailed report on the Bombardier CSeries to be the first airplane to have telemetry for the black box flight data recorder.

AirInsight on 787, 747-8 delays; A321 NEO

AirInsight has several commentaries about the news last week of new delays in the Boeing 787 and 747-8 programs; and a discussion about the prospective A321 New Engine Option. The main site is here.

PW’s GTF, Boeing’s culture, China’s C919 and ARJ21, CSeries

Jon Ostrower of FlightGlobal has this piece about the “bolt-on” of Pratt & Whitney’s P1524G PurePower Geared Turbo Fan. The PurePower, also known as the Geared Turbo Fan, is the engine designed for Bombardier’s CSeries, with larger versions anticipated for development to re-engine the Airbus A320 family and potentially for application to the replacement airplane for the Boeing 737.

PW’s PurePower website is here.

Airbus said at the Farnborough Air Show that it has made the business case to re-engine the family, and it will conclude the study by the end of September whether engineering resources will be freed up to proceed with the project. We believe Airbus will green-light the program, with an announcement at the end of next month or in October.

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