Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing unlikely to meet FAA’s 90-day deadline for new safety program April 18, 2024
- Focus on quality not slowing innovation, says GKN April 18, 2024
- Boeing defends 787, 777 against whistleblower charges April 17, 2024
- Dissecting Boeing CEO’s statement next new airplane will cost $50bn April 15, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 3. Propulsive efficiency April 12, 2024
Odds and Ends: Air France v Rolls-Royce for A350; Virgin America rejigs; Last A340s sold; Heading South with SPEEA
Air France v Rollsr-Royce: The saga continues-see this Bloomberg story. We understand there is more to it than just maintenance. Rolls wants AF to order the Trent 1000 for the 787 order, too.
Virgin America: This airline, headquartered in San Francisco, has been an airline in search of a business plan. Its operations don’t have a niche and didn’t fill a void (like jetBlue created and filled at NY-JFK). It’s lost hundreds of millions of dollars. And, finally, the losses have caught up. Bloomberg has this story about aircraft order deferrals and cancellations. The deferrals are Airbus A320neos (note to Alabama: VA was going to take the first neos from the new Airbus Mobile plant in 2016).
Virgin is seeking to restructure aircraft leases, according to two industry sources. Failing to do so could lead to a Chapter 11 filing, the sources say.
Last A340s Sold: The remaining two Airbus A340-500s, originally destined for ailing Kingfisher Airlines, have been sold.
SPEEA and Boeing: Things appear to be heading south with SPEEA. This could affect Boeing’s year-end push to deliver as many as 50 787s as well as the other 7-Series.
Boeing 737 MAX update
Update: Aviation Week has this piece that has some good close-ups of artwork.
Boeing held a tele-conference updating the 737 MAX program. Beverly Wyse, VP and GM of the 737 Program are Michael Teal gave the briefing.
Beverly Wyse (BW)
Michael Teal (MT)
BW: 737 MAX has met firm design concept. Honeywell will provide an electronic bleed air system. Flight deck will have large displays from Rockwell Collins. MAX production will have future growth capability.
MT: We have in place a plan to preserve training commonality with large flight deck displays. We engage with regulators for training regulations and feel this will not be an issue.
Development team made significant progress to have aerodynamic design. We removed nose gear door bump from earlier iterations. We can get longer gear within the wheel well. LEAP 1B reached architectural freeze in September, freezing fan size and core size. Final design freeze will be in April 2013.
With the completion of firm concept, the completion of production design can move forward.
BW: It is important we maintain stability in our production plan. The 737 MAX transition allows us to maintain stability with NG rate increases and into the MAX.
Q&A:
BW: Third production line begins in 2015 with construction of first flight test aircraft. Eventually will use the third line for future rate increases beyond the planned 42 a month.
MT: Will only offer radial tires on nose gear, nose gear retracts further into the wheel well.
MT: 13% fuel reduction is a per-seat off the 737NG from today’s most efficient NG (19% better than original 1997 NG.) MAX will continue with the same maintenance cost as today’s NG.
MT: Goal is to have the same field performance as NG.
BW: 737-7 MAX: Many of our customers select a primary model but have substitution rights into other model. We see the -7 as being part of a family of aircraft where airlines can use -7 on thinner routes. It also serves missions in high-hot regions, such as in Tibetan plateau. We see the -7 serving these critical missions. I would no say “no question” that we will build it, but customers have asked about it and it is in our family today.
MT: Flight test plans for -8 will have four test planes. Expect to have two flight test airplanes for the -9 and -7.
BW: Part of the reason for more flight test airplanes is to proceed as fast as possible.
MT: Can’t give you at this time an exact count of the amount of change of MAX vs NG. This is part of the design process between now and the middle of next year.
MT: This airplane is an amended type certification, do not see re-certification.
[Editor: UBS Securities issued a new research note even as the teleconference was proceeding, with this comment:
[Systems changes represent onset of scope creep: This morning BA announced that it had achieved “Firm Concept” on 737 MAX including new bleed air system from HON, new tail cone, new winglets, and surprise move to upgrade 737 NG displays from HON with 787 large format displays from COL. BA’s move to incorporate updated systems beyond the engine represents a departure from its stated strategy of minimal design changes on 737 MAX.
[When MAX was announced, former CEO of BCA Jim Albaugh said he wanted minimal changes. The MAX has, for some time, appeared to be undergoing design creep, hence the questions about commonality and re-certification.]
BW: Right now we are saying 2017 EIS, [Southwest Airlines previously told us 4Q17, Jim Albaugh hoped to advance this schedule); as we move forward we will get more definitive about the schedule.
Qatar takes delivery of Middle East’s first 787
Qatar Airways took delivery November 12 of the Middle East’s first Boeing 
787. Qatar took contractual delivery of the airplane earlier but physical possession in ceremonies at Boeing Field Monday night.
CEO Akbar Al-Baker said the carrier will take delivery of four more 787s this year. Deliveries of a total of 59 continue into 2017.
Al-Baker said Qatar has conversion rights between the 787-8, the 787-9 and the forthcoming 787-10. Although Boeing and Qatar have discussed the -10, Boeing has yet to formally launch the program. Ray Conner, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, said formal Authority to Offer the -10 will be coming soon. Customers who recently attended a Boeing meeting expect the ATO to come this month. It had been expected last month, but the Board had additional questions, customers tell us.
Al-Baker called the 787-10 the most cost efficient aircraft on a unit (seat mile) basis.
EU caves on ETS, for now–but says it didn’t really cave
The European Union caved in on implementing the carbon trading scheme known as ETS that would have taxed international airlines flying into Europe.
The EU claimed it didn’t really cave to international pressure (Financial Times, free registration required) but clearly it did. China was the first country to tell its airlines not to pay. This was followed by counties in the Middle East, India and the US Senate. But we’re going to give credit to China, not only as the leader but a country which adeptly uses its strength in ordering-or not-aircraft from Airbus or Boeing as political tools.
China put on hold ordering $14bn worth of Airbuses, notably 35 A330s. Airbus froze production rates pending this order–which means a loss of jobs.
As countries protesting the unilateral ETS scheme noted, such taxation should come from international agreements through the airline organization ICAO.
What is so annoying about the ETS scheme is that the taxes would go into the countries’ general fund and not be applied to environmental improvements.
Airbus, Boeing under price pressure
The Wall Street Journal has two articles about Airbus and Boeing being under price pressure. There is a third article by the WSJ about Airbus wanting its suppliers to consolidate.
The two companies have accused each other of engaging in a price was in the single-aisle category. Airbus also is dropping prices on the A330 vis-a-vis the 787, as we reported following an Airbus presentation last May at its Innovation Days in which it illustrated a $900,000 lease rate for the A330-300 vs a $1.2m rate for the 787-9. The A330 had a slightly higher list price than the 787-9 and the time (Boeing since has raised its list price and is now higher).
To the next President and next Congress: Maybe Sequestration should happen after all for the long-term good
As voters go to the polls today, we’ve turned our thoughts to Sequestration and the impact on Defense budgets.
Defense sequestration is widely view as a disaster for national defense and for employment. Sequestration requires a cut of $500bn over 10 years, or $50bn a year. Spending for FY2013 is $902.3bn, according to government figures, excluding the Afghan war. A $50bn cut would be 5.5%.
We certainly acknowledge the adverse impact of cutting $50bn from next year’s budget, but we can’t help but wonder if there isn’t 5% that is “fat.” Parochially, Boeing’s KC-46A tanker is on the hit list for cuts. Given the difficulty it took in getting to this contract and the pressing need to replace the KC-135, we would hope this program would survive.
But we’re thinking on a higher plain.
United’s 787s delayed, but nobody is saying why
There appears to be a lot of focus on delays in delivering the next Boeing 787s to United Airlines–which has received one–but neither Boeing or United is saying what’s behind the delays. (Update, Dec. 1: one of the three was delivered yesterday.)
According to the Ascend data base, line numbers 45, 50 and 52 are supposed to be delivered this year and 55 and 77 are supposed to be delivered in January. All are with GEnx engines.
Here are some possible reasons for the delay:
- Rework is the obvious one. The first “clean” airplane to come off the Boeing assembly line in Everett was around line #66. The lower the line number, the more rework. UAL’s line numbers are higher, but rework is still necessary.
- GEnx engines. The failures on the 787 and 747-8 GEnx engines were unrelated and, as these things go, not especially severe, but fixing them is, we are told, complex for engines already assembled. Qatar refused delivery of its first 787 because of the GEnx issue. Contractually delivery has been accepted but the airline also wanted additional IFE (inflight entertainment equipment) installed and physically hasn’t accepted delivery. So…
- IFE upgrades: These UAL 787s were ordered by Continental Airlines prior to the merger and it’s been reported in the press that the delays in Boeing’s delivery left UA/CO will older, less sophisticated Buyer Furnished Equipment (the IFE). Maybe UAL wants more current IFE?
We were asked by media if this is another blow to the 787 program. We don’t think so. At this point, we haven’t heard of anything about the reason for the delay and pretty well shrugged it off anyway.
Meanwhile, Airbus is in talks with at least some of its A380 customers seeking compensation for the operational interruptions resulting from required inspections related to wing rub brace cracking. Compensation could amount to millions of Euros per customer.