Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing unlikely to meet FAA’s 90-day deadline for new safety program April 18, 2024
- Focus on quality not slowing innovation, says GKN April 18, 2024
- Boeing defends 787, 777 against whistleblower charges April 17, 2024
- Dissecting Boeing CEO’s statement next new airplane will cost $50bn April 15, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 3. Propulsive efficiency April 12, 2024
Farnborough underway with CFM press conference
Tweets from Saturday’s CFM press conference:
Bernie Baldwin @BernieBaldwin
#FARN12 #FIA12 @CFM_engines Part commonality between LEAP-1A and LEAP-1B very little.
CFM: 737 Max Leap-1B engine core has 10-stage 22:1 pressure ratio in the HPC. 1st 5 stages are blisks. Plans 5-stage LPT. #FIA12
Bernie Baldwin @BernieBaldwin
#FARN12 #FIA12 @CFM_engines doesn’t see a commercial use of open rotor technology in the thrust range where CFM sits now until about 2030.
Another shot from @CFM_engines: Each Leap-powered A320neo will have $3-$4M net present value advantage on 15yr term against A320neo w/PW1200
Bernie Baldwin @BernieBaldwin
#FARN12, #FIA12 @CFM_engines LEAP-1A/1C design freeze took place on 28 June 2012, drawings now being released. -1B freeze will be mid 2013.
Interesting: @CFM_engines predicts Leap-1A will beat PW1200 on MX by 50h/yr on A320neo. Also 4 fewer “fill-ups”. #FARN12 #FIA12
Looks like @CFM_engines expects CFM56 production to phase out completely by 2019, meaning no more A320neos & 737NGs. #FIA12 #FARN12
Here is a full story from The Wall Street Journal. Author Jon Ostrower also posted the following image on his Facebook account:
The mid-size, twin-aisle battle
The mid-size twin-aisle battle
While a plethora of new entrants are nipping at the heels of Airbus and Boeing in the single-aisle market, the battle in the twin-aisle segment is strictly between the two behemoths.
The two OEMs differ on the size of the market by a wide margin. Airbus, in its 2011 20-year Global Market Outlook, the most recent available, forecasts a need for 6,525 twin-aisle airplanes: 4,518 “small” twin aisles and 1,907 “large” twin-aisles. Boeing, which does not publicly distinguish this segment, forecast a need for 7,950 twin-aisles. This is in the 200-400 seat segment (Airbus uses 210-400 for its forecast).
Given their methodology differences in the total market forecast, both nonetheless come to the same market share—24%–of the mid-size, twin-aisle segment.
The line-up is:
Boeing’s twin-aisle product strategy provides better segment coverage than Airbus
Boeing’s airplane strategy has shifted its focus to twin-aisle aircraft with the decision to proceed with the 737 MAX, says Nicole Piasecki, vice president of Business Development & Strategic Integration for Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
BCA has some critical tasks and choices ahead:
- Complete the design and get into production the 787-9;
- Launch the 787-10; and
- Decide what to do to enhance the 777 to compete with the Airbus A350-1000.
Although launching the 787-10 is considered by most to be a foregone conclusion, it hasn’t happened yet. And although Boeing has been showing some reasonably detailed concepts around about the 777-8X, a 350-passenger replacement for the 777-300ER, and the 777-9X, a 407 passenger aircraft, neither concept is firm—and, according to one airline fleet planner, it’s not even clear Boeing will do much more than simply re-engine the current 777-300ER.
Nonetheless, Piasecki showed a group of reporters the Boeing product planning in a pre-Farnborough Air Show briefing that clearly demonstrates Boeing has better market segment coverage than Airbus today or potentially in the future. (Click to enlarge.)
No plateau on 737NG: Boeing
“There is no plateau in interest on the 737NG,” says Boeing’s Beverly Wyse, VP and GM of the stalwart program.
“Even though there are a lot of challenges in the industry, the growth, particularly in the single aisle market in emerging markets and Low Cost Carriers, continues to give us a lot of confidence the demand is out there. Even with the struggles in Europe, there seems to be a little tension between replacement demand and growth demand. We don’t see any pullback in the demand on the 737 at our current production rates or a weakness in demand as we transition to the MAX.”
Wyse gave this assessment during a briefing to the media in advance of the Farnborough Air Show. The briefings were embargoed until July 5.
“Basically we are full all the way through to the middle of 2016. We do have some capacity left in 2016 and 2017 prior to the introduction of the MAX,” she said. “We do have some NGs out in 2018 but that capacity is filling up. We still have customers coming in for NG and MAX four or five or six years out.”
She predicted there will be a two-three year transition period of NG and MAX overlap, though she prefers two years. Wyse acknowledged that the 737-based BBJ and P-8A Poseidon could further extend production of the NG even if passenger models are discontinued.
Boeing’s 2012 Current Market Outlook
Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing for Boeing, outlined Boeing’s update for the Current Market Outlook for the 20 years from 2012-2031. Aircraft in the world fleet has nearly tripled from about 6,500 to more than 19,000 today.
(We will post more detail July 5.)
- Fuel prices have forced some regional jets out of the market because they are no longer viable, Tinseth says.
- There will be 13,000km in of high speed rail in China by the end of this year, more than the rest of the world combined.
- By 2020, China will open 97 new airports.
- 60%-80% of travel is tied to GDP and economic demand.
- Passenger travel has historically grown at 5% per year.
- Non-stop, point-to-point, more frequency growing and airplane size is shrinking.
- Expect to see world fleet grow to nearly 40,000 airplanes by 2031. 40% of demand will be for retirements, 60% for growth.
- Replacement market is very, very important for us. 500 retirements last year.
- There will be demand for 940 production freighters.
- China, Asia, Asia-Pacific will grow the fastest. 35% of demand will be here.
- Cargo traffic has been much more volatile because more closely tied to economies. Growth has been steady but has slowed.
- Over next 20 years see demand for 2800 freighters, 940 new, rest conversions. 940 airplanes valued at $250bn.
Q&A
- About Airbus Mobile: I was a salesman and to be successful you have to do three things: it’s about the product and pricing; it’s about people; it’s about your relationship. Your customers are focusing on those things, not the address on your business card. What drives US and North American airlines, it’s about the business case. I don’t see how this drive the business case. You have to ask Airbus about efficiency. They are building airplanes in four different places.
- About the $500bn increase in value over 20 years: We will see some modest up-gauging in single aisle market, from A319/737-700 size to address airport issues to A320/737-800 and will see it go to 737-9/A321. This is driving some of the change. The twin-aisle market sees the strength in the 777-300 size aircraft.
- On the twin-aisle market: it’s split about 50-50 between small twins and large twins, a little heavier toward large twins. Long-term expect shifting up from 787-8 to -9 and -10.
- On Very Large Aircraft: demand down about 1%. Big airplanes are operated by a handful of carriers in a handful of markets. We’ve probably been a little optimistic in this. A380 after 10 years has sold about where we expected (there are 258 sales–editor).
Odds and Ends: Coverage on Airbus’ Mobile move and other thoughts
Randy Tinseth, VPO of Marketing for Boeing, is always fast with the quip–via Flight Global’s Twitter: “Market is about product, people and customers, not the address on your business card.”
Mobile Press-Register: general overview.
Reuters: Unions aren’t happy–but guess what, it’s US unions.
Chicago Tribune: Boeing’s home-town paper has this about Boeing losing a tactical edge–according to Airbus.
The Economist: Slaps Boeing and Airbus for their continued bickering over trade. Hear, hear.
Airbus and Mobile: Implications and analysis
Before getting to the meat of things, a couple of key stories:
Mobile Press-Register, June 30. Details of the plan.
Wall Street Journal: Boeing complains.
It’s now one of the worst-kept industrial secrets: Airbus will announce at 10am CDT July 2 that it will construct a $600m A320 Family Final Assembly Line (FAL) in Mobile (AL).
This is a major strategic and tactical move in the intense, often bitter competition between Airbus and Boeing.
Even before the plans became official, Boeing issued a pissy slam, harking back to the World Trade Organization dispute, rather than stating that it is in a position to compete against Airbus and its A320 with what Boeing otherwise routinely characterizes a better airplane with the best workers in the world.
Perhaps the pissy statement was chosen because in many respects, Airbus has mouse-trapped Boeing—and there is very little the company can do about it.
Before explaining, here are some facts to keep in mind. Click on the graphic to enlarge.
787 enables ANA to begin Seattle route–after an interim 777 solution
Japan’s All Nippon Airlines, the launch customer of the Boeing 787, said yesterday that the new, high-tech airplane is the enabler that prompted it to schedule its first service from Tokyo to Seattle.
Never mind that initial service begins in August with the Boeing 777-300ER and the 787 service won’t begin until October (ironically, with a 787 that will be delivered in August).
The seeming contradiction is explained by an initial summer-time surge in passenger demand that makes the 777 a viable start. Seattle is a highly seasonal market and the smaller-capacity and more fuel efficient 787 is what makes the 787 the preferred choice, ANA said during a celebratory event yesterday.
ANA will need all the advantages it can get from the 787’s lower fuel burn. The airline will be challenging giants Delta Air Lines and United Airlines on the routes. Delta operates the Airbus A330-300, a highly efficient airplane, and United uses the 777-200ER. Each has a good feeder system to Seattle and each has a good hub in Tokyo.
ANA, which like United, is a member of the Star Alliance, terminates its service in Seattle but it has a much better hub than UAL and DAL in Tokyo. It’s counting on the beyond-Tokyo strength to support its route. The daily traffic is 1,000 passengers but only 200 are between Seattle and Tokyo.
ANA’s 787s now is service are the heavy-spec ones with Rolls-Royce engines that initially have not been up to spec. Even so, the 787s are 21% more fuel efficient than ANA’s Boeing 767-300ERs, the airline said. ANA did not offer a comparison vs its 777s.