New single aisles on home stretch

By Bjorn Fehrm

16 Sep 2015, © Leeham Co.: Boeing released pictures yesterday of the first 737 MAX 8 being on the Renton Final Assembly Line (FAL) having completed the wing-to-body joins. With the Airbus A320neo now flying again with both Pratt & Whitney GTF and CFM LEAP test vehicles and Bombardier completing 85% on CSeries (having passed 2,400 hours of flight testing), one can say the new single aisles are on their home stretch.

737 MAX wing join with pylon

737 MAX on the Final Assembly Line at Renton, Seattle. Source: Boeing.

Original planning had the CSeries entering service in December 2013, nearly two years before A320neo (October 2015) and four years before the 737 MAX (4Q2017). With the 737 MAX now on the FAL one can start to review the Entry into Service (EIS) for all three. It will be tighter than the companies have said.

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Rolls-Royce and Safran, major European engine OEMs with different fortunes.

By Bjorn Fehrm

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July 30, 2015 © Leeham Co. Rolls-Royce and Safran, the parent company of CFM partner Snecma, released their Q2 and first half 2015 earnings today. It is interesting to compare these companies as they are in different strategic situations in their dominant business segments, civil turbofan engines.

Civil turbofans constitute 52% of Rolls-Royce total business whereas it makes 54% of Safran’s turn over. Rolls-Royce’s focus has been widebody engines to the point where it exited its part of International Aero Engines, which makes the single aisle V2500 engine, three years ago. Safran on the other hand is heavily invested in the single aisle market through its 50% part in CFM through its Snecma subsidiary.

The present situation and the future outlook for these two companies are intimately aligned with this strategic difference. We look at why and how this will affect their immediate future.

Summary:

  • Rolls-Royce is experiencing migration problems in its widebody turbofan business. Its bread and butter Trent 700 engine is on its way out and it takes until 2018 for the replacement, Trent 7000, to kick in.
  • Other programs are only growing slowly: the Trent 1000 for Boeing’s 787 or Trent XWB for the Airbus A350.
  • Safran civil turbofan business Snecma is enjoying record sales and deliveries through its CFM joint venture with GE.
  • Despite sharing its revenue 50:50 with GE, the business turnover is the size of Rolls-Royce turbofan business today and larger tomorrow. Profit margins are three times higher.

 

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Bjorn’s Corner: hot summer, hot engines

By Bjorn Fehrm

By Bjorn Fehrm

17 July 2015, ©. Leeham Co: It is summer in south of Europe and we have had over 30°C/86°F for weeks. It makes one realize the conditions where the engines have to work over their flat rating point in the Middle East.

Aircraft engines are a bit fidgety. They don’t like temperature although they are made to sustain that their hottest parts, the nozzle and first turbine after the combustor, gets scalded to 1700°C/3,092°F or more.

Go down to the very back end of the engine and we come to where the key engine parameter, EGT (Exhaust Gas Temperature), is measured. It determines a lot of things, among them the time the engine stays on wing. Things are typically 700°C/1,832°F cooler here and this is where a reliable temperature measurement probe can be placed. Based on its values, the total health of the engine’s core is determined. It is also a key input whether the engine shall be throttled back in a hot take-off like in the Middle East.

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Pontifications: ExIm reform

By Scott Hamiltn

By Scott Hamilton

July 6, 2015, © Leeham Co. The US ExIm Bank authorization expired last week. As readers know, I’m a strong advocate of renewal of the authorization. Boeing, and other companies, hope reauthorization can be achieved this month.

I won’t restate the reasons I think ExIm should be reauthorized, nor my utter disdain for the right-wing Republicans and Tea Party types who don’t get that the Bank helps Boeing sell airplanes and sustain or create jobs. I’ve written about this many times, and the competitive disadvantage Boeing will have vs Airbus, whose European Credit Agencies will take full advantage of this.

But there are some points on the “other side” to revisit.

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LEAP, the best of 1,000 investigated alternatives.

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

June 23, 2015, © Leeham Co. CFM International went through 1,000 iterations before settling on the final design for the LEAP engines that will power the Airbus A320neo, the Boeing 737 MAX and the COMAC C919.

In an interview with us at the Paris Air Show, CFM LEAP program manager Gareth Richards explained the macro process of the development of LEAP, CFM’s sequel to CFM56. This will be the largest turbofan engine program in the history of civil aviation and the follow on to the world’s most-sold turbofan, the CFM56.

Richards focused on how an engine like LEAP gets designed and what the trades are that a single aisle, short haul engine has compared to long haul engines.

LEAP is sharing the A320neo platform with Pratt & Whitney’s GTF but is sole engine on the 737 MAX and the C919. This will lead to engine production rates five years into the program of 1800 engines which is higher than the present rate of CFM56 deliveries.

Dependant on rate increases by Airbus and Boeing, this can increase beyond 2,000 engines per year after the initial ramp. It would make LEAP the largest civil turbofan program whichever way one counts: engines, installed thrust or revenue.

Summary:

  • Research of optimal engine cycle was extensive, with more than 1,000 alternatives investigated before settling on the final LEAP cycle.
  • The production ramp is the fastest ever, from 30 engines 2015 to 1,700 by 2019.
  • While CFM does not want to ramp faster than planned, final production rate is flexible.
  • The large volume of sold engines, the fast production ramp and the short-haul cycle makes for a conservative approach to performance.
  • We discuss with Richards how such a program is managed and how you make sure you can deliver on promises.

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Airbus COO faces production challenge vs bulging order book

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Now open to all Readers.

Introduction

June 15, 2015, Paris Air Show, c. Leeham Co. Airbus, like Boeing, is faced with an embarrassment of riches: too many orders for the A320 and A350 production rates that have been announced. There’s pressure from the top commercial officer to hike rates, but the president and chief operating officer says not so fast.

Tom Williams was elevated to the presidency only a few

months ago from his position as EVP-Programs, where he was in charge of production and the Airbus supply chain. Williams, a Scotsman and the first non-French or non-German to be president and COO of Airbus Commercial, ruefully observes he didn’t give up the production and supply chain duties with his new title.

Although Williams agrees with John Leahy, chief operating officer-customers, that demand indicates higher rates are needed for the A320 and A350, the demands on the supply chain for Airbus, as well as the other airframers, also demands caution.

  • Summary
  • Decision end of this year or early next on A380 production rates.
  • A380neo launch aid reported—but it’s premature.
  • No decision yet on greater than 50 A320 production rate per month.
  • Pondering hike in A350 production rate beyond the 10/mo announced.
  • Cabin suppliers a top concern.

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Paris Air Show, Day 1: Ramp walk

June 14, 2015, Paris Air Show: While waiting for the Bombardier “reveal” of its new CS100 and CS300, each at the air show for the first time, LNC’s Bjorn Fehrm and I walked the ramp. Many airplanes had not yet arrived. As we strolled down the ramp, Fehrm provided some commentary in the videos below.

But before going to the videos, on June 13, there was a little news about the prospective Airbus A380neo. The Sunday Times of London reports that Airbus has asked for repayable launch aid for development of the A380neo. Most of the article is behind the paywall, but the gist is in the preview.

Now to the ramp walk.

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Pontifications: re-engining airliners and the A380

Hamilton (5)

By Scott Hamilton

June 1, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show begins in two weeks. One thing that won’t happen is the launch of the Airbus A380neo.

We still think it will happen, though at a later date.

Re-engining the A380 is highly controversial. The A380 is the plane critics love to hate. You can argue whether it should have been built in the first place. You can argue whether it was 10 years too soon. You can argue whether Airbus misjudged the size of the market. You can even argue its passenger appeal. I haven’t flown on the A380 yet, so I can’t speak from personal experience on the latter. I’ve previously discussed the other points.

You can argue whether the airplane should be re-engined. Leeham News concluded in January 2014 Airbus really had no choice but to re-engine the A380 if it wants to continue offering the model. If done inexpensively (a relative term, to be sure), it makes sense given the arrival around 2020 of the Boeing 777-9. It’s when design creep happens that trouble arises. Just ask Boeing on the 747-8.

Emirates Airlines says it will buy up to 200 A380neos if Airbus proceeds. Qatar Airways expresses interest. Lufthansa Airlines said a neo is needed to keep the A380 viable in the future, though it hasn’t taken the next step of saying it will buy more.

Re-engining is hardly new. Let’s take a look. Read more

Paris Air Show: Qatar and others

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Introduction

June 1, 2015, c. Leeham Co. It could be called the Qatar Airways Air Show.

Qatar Airways plans to have five airliners on display at the Paris Air Show in two weeks: the Airbus A319, A320, A350, A380 and the Boeing 787. The carrier hasn’t announced whether it will provide an aerial display as it has at previous air shows, but Qatar may well have more airliners there than Airbus or Boeing.

As for manufacturers other than Airbus and Boeing, we don’t expect anything of consequence from these.

Summary

  • Irkut, COMAC, Mitsubishi, Sukoi and ATR are other major aircraft producers that will be at the Paris Air Show.
  • Engine makers CFM International, GE Aviation, Rolls-Royce, Pratt & Whitney and Engine Alliance will also be there.
  • An update on Airbus expectations.

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Bjorn’s Corner: Airbus Innovation days, activities and program updates.

By Bjorn Fehrm

By Bjorn Fehrm

Introduction

28 May 2015, C. Leeham Co: I am in Toulouse today attending Airbus Innovation days for Leeham News. It has been a good day’s briefings and I have presented what was perhaps the biggest change since we last met Airbus in the article “Airbus A350-1000 getting real”.

Apart from this program, there were more standard updates on Airbus other activities and programs. Here follows a rundown on these updates in a more paraphrased form.

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