By Bjorn Fehrm
16 Sep 2015, © Leeham Co.: Boeing released pictures yesterday of the first 737 MAX 8 being on the Renton Final Assembly Line (FAL) having completed the wing-to-body joins. With the Airbus A320neo now flying again with both Pratt & Whitney GTF and CFM LEAP test vehicles and Bombardier completing 85% on CSeries (having passed 2,400 hours of flight testing), one can say the new single aisles are on their home stretch.
Original planning had the CSeries entering service in December 2013, nearly two years before A320neo (October 2015) and four years before the 737 MAX (4Q2017). With the 737 MAX now on the FAL one can start to review the Entry into Service (EIS) for all three. It will be tighter than the companies have said.
Posted on September 16, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
By Bjorn Fehrm
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July 30, 2015 © Leeham Co. Rolls-Royce and Safran, the parent company of CFM partner Snecma, released their Q2 and first half 2015 earnings today. It is interesting to compare these companies as they are in different strategic situations in their dominant business segments, civil turbofan engines.
Civil turbofans constitute 52% of Rolls-Royce total business whereas it makes 54% of Safran’s turn over. Rolls-Royce’s focus has been widebody engines to the point where it exited its part of International Aero Engines, which makes the single aisle V2500 engine, three years ago. Safran on the other hand is heavily invested in the single aisle market through its 50% part in CFM through its Snecma subsidiary.
The present situation and the future outlook for these two companies are intimately aligned with this strategic difference. We look at why and how this will affect their immediate future.
Summary:
Posted on July 31, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
17 July 2015, ©. Leeham Co: It is summer in south of Europe and we have had over 30°C/86°F for weeks. It makes one realize the conditions where the engines have to work over their flat rating point in the Middle East.
Aircraft engines are a bit fidgety. They don’t like temperature although they are made to sustain that their hottest parts, the nozzle and first turbine after the combustor, gets scalded to 1700°C/3,092°F or more.
Go down to the very back end of the engine and we come to where the key engine parameter, EGT (Exhaust Gas Temperature), is measured. It determines a lot of things, among them the time the engine stays on wing. Things are typically 700°C/1,832°F cooler here and this is where a reliable temperature measurement probe can be placed. Based on its values, the total health of the engine’s core is determined. It is also a key input whether the engine shall be throttled back in a hot take-off like in the Middle East.
Posted on July 17, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
July 6, 2015, © Leeham Co. The US ExIm Bank authorization expired last week. As readers know, I’m a strong advocate of renewal of the authorization. Boeing, and other companies, hope reauthorization can be achieved this month.
I won’t restate the reasons I think ExIm should be reauthorized, nor my utter disdain for the right-wing Republicans and Tea Party types who don’t get that the Bank helps Boeing sell airplanes and sustain or create jobs. I’ve written about this many times, and the competitive disadvantage Boeing will have vs Airbus, whose European Credit Agencies will take full advantage of this.
But there are some points on the “other side” to revisit.
Posted on July 6, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 23, 2015, © Leeham Co. CFM International went through 1,000 iterations before settling on the final design for the LEAP engines that will power the Airbus A320neo, the Boeing 737 MAX and the COMAC C919.
In an interview with us at the Paris Air Show, CFM LEAP program manager Gareth Richards explained the macro process of the development of LEAP, CFM’s sequel to CFM56. This will be the largest turbofan engine program in the history of civil aviation and the follow on to the world’s most-sold turbofan, the CFM56.
Richards focused on how an engine like LEAP gets designed and what the trades are that a single aisle, short haul engine has compared to long haul engines.
LEAP is sharing the A320neo platform with Pratt & Whitney’s GTF but is sole engine on the 737 MAX and the C919. This will lead to engine production rates five years into the program of 1800 engines which is higher than the present rate of CFM56 deliveries.
Dependant on rate increases by Airbus and Boeing, this can increase beyond 2,000 engines per year after the initial ramp. It would make LEAP the largest civil turbofan program whichever way one counts: engines, installed thrust or revenue.
Summary:
Posted on July 2, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 15, 2015, Paris Air Show, c. Leeham Co. Airbus, like Boeing, is faced with an embarrassment of riches: too many orders for the A320 and A350 production rates that have been announced. There’s pressure from the top commercial officer to hike rates, but the president and chief operating officer says not so fast.
Tom Williams was elevated to the presidency only a few
months ago from his position as EVP-Programs, where he was in charge of production and the Airbus supply chain. Williams, a Scotsman and the first non-French or non-German to be president and COO of Airbus Commercial, ruefully observes he didn’t give up the production and supply chain duties with his new title.
Although Williams agrees with John Leahy, chief operating officer-customers, that demand indicates higher rates are needed for the A320 and A350, the demands on the supply chain for Airbus, as well as the other airframers, also demands caution.
Posted on June 15, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, Embraer, Irkut, Mitsubishi, Paris Air Show, Sukhoi
777X, 787, A320, A320NEO, A350, A380, Airbus, Boeing, John Leahy, Tom Enders, Tom Williams
June 14, 2015, Paris Air Show: While waiting for the Bombardier “reveal” of its new CS100 and CS300, each at the air show for the first time, LNC’s Bjorn Fehrm and I walked the ramp. Many airplanes had not yet arrived. As we strolled down the ramp, Fehrm provided some commentary in the videos below.
But before going to the videos, on June 13, there was a little news about the prospective Airbus A380neo. The Sunday Times of London reports that Airbus has asked for repayable launch aid for development of the A380neo. Most of the article is behind the paywall, but the gist is in the preview.
Now to the ramp walk.
Posted on June 14, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
June 1, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show begins in two weeks. One thing that won’t happen is the launch of the Airbus A380neo.
We still think it will happen, though at a later date.
Re-engining the A380 is highly controversial. The A380 is the plane critics love to hate. You can argue whether it should have been built in the first place. You can argue whether it was 10 years too soon. You can argue whether Airbus misjudged the size of the market. You can even argue its passenger appeal. I haven’t flown on the A380 yet, so I can’t speak from personal experience on the latter. I’ve previously discussed the other points.
You can argue whether the airplane should be re-engined. Leeham News concluded in January 2014 Airbus really had no choice but to re-engine the A380 if it wants to continue offering the model. If done inexpensively (a relative term, to be sure), it makes sense given the arrival around 2020 of the Boeing 777-9. It’s when design creep happens that trouble arises. Just ask Boeing on the 747-8.
Emirates Airlines says it will buy up to 200 A380neos if Airbus proceeds. Qatar Airways expresses interest. Lufthansa Airlines said a neo is needed to keep the A380 viable in the future, though it hasn’t taken the next step of saying it will buy more.
Re-engining is hardly new. Let’s take a look. Read more
Posted on June 1, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, CFM, Douglas Aircraft Co, Emirates Airlines, GE Aviation, Paris Air Show, Pontifications, Pratt & Whitney, Qatar Airways, Rolls-Royce
737 Classic, 737 MAX, 737 NG, 747-500, 747-600, 747-8, 747X, A320NEO, A330neo, A380, A380neo, Airbus, Boeing, Bristol, Britannia, Constellation, Convair, CV-240, CV-340, CV-440, CV-540, CV-580, CV600, CV640, DC-7, DC-7D, DC-7T, DC-8-61, DC-8-71, Douglas Aircraft Co., L-1449, L-1549, Lockheed
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Introduction
June 1, 2015, c. Leeham Co. It could be called the Qatar Airways Air Show.
Qatar Airways plans to have five airliners on display at the Paris Air Show in two weeks: the Airbus A319, A320, A350, A380 and the Boeing 787. The carrier hasn’t announced whether it will provide an aerial display as it has at previous air shows, but Qatar may well have more airliners there than Airbus or Boeing.
As for manufacturers other than Airbus and Boeing, we don’t expect anything of consequence from these.
Summary
Posted on June 1, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, ATR, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, Embraer, Emirates Airlines, Irkut, Mitsubishi, Paris Air Show, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Qatar Airways, Rolls-Royce, Sukhoi
787, A319, A320, A350, A380, Airbus, ATR, Boeing, CFM, Comac, Emirates Airlines, Engine Alliance, GE Engines, Irkut, Mitsubishi, Paris Air Show, Pratt & Whitney, Qatar Airways, Rolls-Royce, Suhkoi, Tim Clark
Introduction
28 May 2015, C. Leeham Co: I am in Toulouse today attending Airbus Innovation days for Leeham News. It has been a good day’s briefings and I have presented what was perhaps the biggest change since we last met Airbus in the article “Airbus A350-1000 getting real”.
Apart from this program, there were more standard updates on Airbus other activities and programs. Here follows a rundown on these updates in a more paraphrased form.
Posted on May 28, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm