Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing defends 787, 777 against whistleblower charges April 17, 2024
- Dissecting Boeing CEO’s statement next new airplane will cost $50bn April 15, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 3. Propulsive efficiency April 12, 2024
- A350-1000 or 777-9? Part 2 April 11, 2024
- Pontifications: Boeing “transparency”–not so much. April 9, 2024
Airline assets and lessor assets: Bombardier and Embraer
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Part 2. Part 1 may be found here.
Introduction
Bombardier invented the regional jet. Despite some sales these days, the CRJ was eclipsed by the Embraer J-Jet. Bombardier photo.
Oct. 10, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Regional aircraft are much riskier assets for lessors than mainline aircraft.
Until recently, Bombardier and Embraer were the only two regional jet Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs).
Today, the Sukhoi SSJ100 and the Mitsubishi MRJ90 join BBD and EMB in this arena.
Summary
- Bombardier’s regional jets CRJ series enjoyed a good life with airlines and lessors, but fell into disfavor as fuel prices spiked.
- BBD’s CSeries was ordered by four lessors, but two of them have question marks.
- Embraer’s E-Jet found good homes with lessors, but some worry about supply-and-demand in the secondary market.
Mitsubishi MRJ90 arrives in Washington State for certification flight testing
Sept. 29, 2016, © Leeham Co., Moses Lake (WA): After months of delays between the first flight and yesterday, the first Mitsubishi MRJ90 arrived in Moses Lake (WA) to begin certification flight testing. This is scheduled over 12-18 month.
The first Flight Test Aircraft (FTA), registration JA21MJ, left Nagoya, Japan, on the 27th and after two stops, overnighted in Anchorage. From there, the aircraft flew non-stop to Moses Lake, in Central Washington State.
Tracking the aircraft proved problematic. There were long gaps during which Flightradar24 and Flightaware had no data from the aircraft. Dedicated transponders will be put on the next three FTAs.
The MRJ90, which is running about three years late, is the first commercial aircraft developed by Japan since the NAMC YS-11 turbo-prop in the early 1960s. Mitsubishi is an industrial partner on the Boeing 787.
The MRJ90 landed at about 5:47pm local time (unofficial time) after a low-level flyby. This was followed by the traditional water cannon salute.
Videos are below the jump.
44% supplier shortfall for GTF now showing impact
Sept. 6, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It was a stunning admission, one that produced the biggest headlines at the United Technologies media days in June: 44% of the suppliers on Pratt & Whitney’s Geared Turbo Fan engine weren’t performing to the UTC/PW standards.
The impact of this was seen today when Bombardier announced it will deliver only half the anticipated 15 C Series this year because of engine delivery issues by PW for the GTF powering the new airplane.
Bombardier and PW pointed the finger at its supply chain for the delays in delivering engines.
Pontifications: Odds and Ends to end the summer
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 5, 2016, © Leeham Co.: August was unusually slow, so today is sort of an Odds and Ends clean-up of the summer.
There was the Southwest Airlines engine incident and the reports that ANA’s Boeing 787s have engine issues, but I wrote about these last week.
Today, the Odds and Ends include more on the Mitsubishi MRJ; Airbus deliveries; sales campaigns and other stuff.
Pontifications: Mitsubishi ramping up flight testing for MRJ
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 15, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp. (MAC) is about to dramatically ramp up its flight testing of the MRJ-90.
Media has been alerted to an all-day event next month, complete with a tour of the Moses Lake (WA) facility, where test airplanes will be based.
The program is two years behind schedule for the brand new design, the first commercial airliner produced by Japan since the YS-11 turboprop more than 50 years ago.
Pontifications: Twelve new designs in 10 years spurred orders
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 8, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The book:bill for Airbus and Boeing this year will be hard-pressed to reach one. Airbus has a better shot, given lower production rates. But the recent years of record-setting orders are over for now.
Unlike some, this doesn’t represent a bursting bubble to LNC. Rather, it’s a natural progression of the cycles that are historically seen.
It’s necessary to put some context into the recent years of these unprecedented number of orders.
Pontifications: New war of words erupts
By Scott Hamilton
July 11, 2016, © Leeham Co., Farnborough Air Show: The war of words between Airbus and Boeing is legendary, and it continued unabated today, the first day of the Farnborough Air Show.
- See my column in Forbes for a rundown of the first day’s orders at the Farnborough Air Show.
Boeing continue its refrain during its press briefing that its airplanes are better than Airbus. Airbus returned fire moments later in its own press conference that followed Boeing’s.
But the more interesting war that is emerging is between Embraer and Bombardier.
Farnborough Air Show preview: expectations and possible surprises
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Introduction
July 4, 2016, © Leeham Co: The Farnborough Air Show begins next Monday and predictably, focus will be on orders.
With new airplanes from Airbus and Boeing past their development stages, conventional wisdom says there won’t be much new in this arena.
Don’t be so sure.
Bombardier is now on an upward trajectory, but don’t look for a big splash at #FIA16 (for those looking for this year’s Twitter handle). Embraer will have its E190-E2 at the show.
It’s Boeing’s 100th Anniversary and the company is rolling out the history for the show.
Summary
- No new products from Airbus.
- Boeing may have a surprise.
- Low number of orders anticipated.
Mitsubishi’s MRJ test flying making good progress
By Bjorn Fehrm in Tokyo
May 18, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation (MAC) announced that their MRJ flight test program is now going well. Mitsubishi presented the status update at the International Society of Transport Aircraft Traders conference (ISTAT 2016 Asia) in Tokyo.
Figure 1. Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ) during flight testing. Source: Mitsubishi.
Mitsubishi Aircraft rocked the confidence of the market with announcing a delay in their program of over a year before Christmas. At the same time, MAC also announced that they will rebuild their test aircraft as they had seen that the original design did not meet ultimate load criteria.
As presented in one of my Friday Corners, that announcement was being too forthcoming. Other OEMs would not have informed the market of the minor modifications needed to make the aircraft able to withstand ultimate load (150% of the highest load the aircraft should ever see in service).
MAC’s Director of Strategic Marketing, Hideyuki Kamiya, gave an update of the flight test program at the conference and later answered some specific questions from LNC on the sidelines of the conference. Read more