Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing welcomes COMAC competition as Asia-Pacific demand soars April 15, 2025
- How good is the C929? April 14, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 17. April 11, 2025
- Uncertainty plagues airline, aerospace, lessor industries over tariffs April 10, 2025
- Boeing eyes tariff risks April 7, 2025
Boeing’s new fighter award moves away from money-losing fixed price contracts
By Scott Hamilton
March 24, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing’s major win for the US Air Force’s new F-47 sixth-generation fighter isn’t just a major plus for a company under siege since 2019. It’s a major shift in its defense and space contracting that moves away from fixed price contracting, costing it billions of dollars during the past two decades.
Boeing’s new F-47 fighter. Credit: US Air Force.
An Air Force official told LNA that the contract is a cost-plus-incentive-fee award for “Engineering and Manufacturing Development. ” The contract will mature, integrate, and test all aspects of the NGAD Platform (Next Generation Air Dominance), the official said. The contract will produce a small number of test aircraft, which will be used for testing. The contract also includes competitively priced options for Low-Rate Initial Production aircraft.
Boeing’s Defense, Space, and Security unit entered into a series of fixed-price contracts that have been plagued by cost overruns. The KC-46A aerial refueling tanker cost more than $7bn over the fixed-price contract. Converting two passenger model 747-8s into the new Air Force One cost more than $3bn. The MQ-25 unmanned Navy refueling drone, T-7 Red Hawk fighter trainer, and Starliner space capsule, among other defense programs, add up to billions of dollars more cost overruns on fixed-price contracts.
The F-47 is Boeing’s first all-new fighter contract with the Air Force. Its current fighter programs pre-date the 1997 merger with McDonnell Douglas Corp.
A shot in the arm
The award is a major boost for the beleaguered Boeing. Boeing Commercial Airplanes has been in crisis mode since March 2019, when the leading money-maker 737 MAX was grounded for 21 months. The Federal Aviation Administration continues strict oversight of MAX production. Boeing hopes to hit a rate of 38/mo later this year.
In October 2020, deliveries of the 787 were suspended for 20 months after production flaws were discovered. The last of the rework on planes that were produced was completed last month. Boeing still is struggling to return production to a target of 10/mo.
Boeing and the rest of the aerospace industry continue to be affected by lingering impacts stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic. The company reported its worst loss in 2024 in its history.
The award was put into perspective by aerospace analysts.
Goldman Sachs noted, “This award comes at a pivotal time for Boeing, as it has not been awarded the prime contractor role on a US fighter jet in decades. Long-term growth in its defense segment had been a question, along with substantial recent cost overruns on other development programs.
“Boeing is on record that it would not take on another fixed price development program and it recognized the importance of conservative contract terms. The loss for Lockheed means it will continue to face the question of what comes behind the F-35, which has grown to ~25% of earnings.”
RBC Capital called the contract “a bit of a surprise for investors. We believe the award is a signal from the Air Force that it wants to ensure at least two fighter companies in the industrial base. Lockheed Martin produces the F-35. Northrop Grumman is the contractor for the new B-21 bomber.
Contract execution will be watched
“We believe focus on Boeing will remain on execution, as Boeing’s recent struggles across its commercial (MAX & 787) and defense (KC-46 Tanker, T-7A, space programs) portfolios,” RBC wrote. This “could suggest further execution risk on the F-47.”
The Air Force did not disclose the estimated cost of the entire F-47 procurement. But RBC wrote that “the engineering and manufacturing development contract is worth over $20bn, with the program worth several times more than this over the contract’s lifetime.” RBC estimates the unit cost of the F-47 is around $300m.
Engine selection for the F-47 is pending.
Regardless of the merrits of this F-47X design, it seem a good development to have Boeing back on the fighter business. The F15/F18 have been running for more than 50 years and LM was becoming dominant.
With Chinese visibly making progress on 6th Gen fighters, Trump probably felt it was time to move ahead with this program from the previous precidency.
Both F-15 and F/A-18 are legacy McDonnell Douglas programs. Boeing itself hasn’t developed a fighter jet in three generations.
F/A-18 is a Northrop design that was handed to MD by the DoD to be prime. Defense companies learned a lot about the importance of Intellectual Property after that happened.
Correct- the basic design of what became the F-18 was done by northrup.
And Bob Hoover ( then a VP of Rockwell and taxi pilot of Aerocommander flights from LAX to Palmdale re B1A bomber ) did a fantastic air show demo of the similar Northrup F5E on at the Paris airshow ( 1973 ). Wuz at Rockwell at time and flew as a passenger with Bob to from Palmdale. Saw the video of Bobs performance at the show which ended as the Russian SST was making a low pass and pullup just prior to crash.
Bob Hoover is one of my most admired aviation people. Not a lot of pilots on that list! What I admire is he worked out amazing routines and he worked out how to do them safetly. That is a serious mind set to doing it exactingly the same, exactly as planned, every time. It was no fluke he did not fail.
Little side note re Hoover- I did not know until after we were lined up for takeoff from LAX in the Shrike Commander that Bob was the pilot. It took a few minutes after airborne for me to process the LAX control tower ‘ non standard’ radio response – which was ‘Ok Bob cleared for takeoff… ‘ instead of the typical “delta 3456 cleared for takeoff…. ”-
AFIK ( not a pilot ) LAX or any major airfield does not use pilots name in such comm.
Makes the whole award of this program to BA even more curious, doesn’t it?
– No recent experience with fighter design;
– Can’t execute on any program whatsoever;
– P#ssed off Pentagon with ongoing KC-46A debacle and T-7 delays;
– P#ssed of Trump with ongoing AF1 delays…
…and, yet, contract awarded to BA.
Actually suggests the admin is even more p#ssed off with LM.
They are definitely pissed off at LM over delays, mission availability of the F-35 plus inability to bring down cost per unit and per flying hour. On top of that BA’s situation is so dire that they needed a financial boost pronto.
That award is the best way to subsidize it long term as it tries to right both its defense and commercial sectors.
Abalone wants to beat up on Boeing but as far as debacles go, The F-35 is one of the worst if not the worst in procurement history.
Boeing is paying for its overruns, LM just is lame and slow and charges more money while doing so. The F-35 is the LM Golden goose, just stand there and collect the eggs.
The maint system that is the key to aircraft in the air failed and has been replaced. Years behind on the programing upgrades.
So yea, beat up on Boeing but LM gets off free and clear because, well because they are not Boeing.
How about LCS that break their drive systems such that they are being retired as fast as the Navy can get away with it. Or a Ford carrier that they missed that the elevators did not go from A to B because they put stuff in the way. And that ignores no test apparatus for arrestor and launch system.
Or if we want to go down memory lane, how about those F-104s, with downward ejection, what a great idea (Lockheed by the way).
Or lets turn them into CAS. Well, that was a West German idea, did not work out well for all to many dead airman.
‘Acquisition Malpractice’ in F-35 Development
Going into production well ahead of its time caused many woes to plague the program. This approach led to expensive and time-consuming retrofits and modifications to already-built aircraft.
Frank Kendal, who was serving as the USAF’s top acquisition official in 2012, called the premature production of the F-35 “acquisition malpractice.”
Kendall, then the Pentagon’s Acting Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, said, “Putting the F-35 into production years before the first test flight was acquisition malpractice. It should not have been done, OK? But we did it.”
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/f-47-vs-f-35-u-s-promises-not-to-repeat-f-35-blunde/
@ Williams
“…Going into production well ahead of its time caused many woes to plague the program…”
But that’s a standard MO at BA:
– Start production of 777X, MAX-7 and MAX-10 before they’re even certified…resulting in a parking lot full of corroded junk.
– Continue producing 737s during grounding…lots more corroding frames out in the parking lot.
– Continue producing 787s while awaiting results of manufacturing quality investigation…even more frames out in the lot.
BA has comitted to getting the F-47 flying before the end of Trump’s current term. That’s a rush by any standard — and expect things to go from bad to worse as BA trips over itself.
> BA has comitted to getting the F-47 flying before the end of Trump’s current term.
May I ask, where’s the engine? Cart before the horse??
@ Pedro
Yeah, the engine is yet another headache, isn’t it?
Ask commercial airlines how smoothly engine intros typically go 🙈
Maybe AI will magically provide an engine? 😅
@Williams, I suspect the government wanted the Ft. Worth line to roll over from the F-16 to the F-35 ASAP. LM most likely said it was a big risk but was told to be quiet and send invoices. Just imagine having 10-12 different LRIP Lots with different IPC’s and manuals and issue tons of SB’s how to upgrade some of them to a higher LOT std with spares made some years back as the new production parts does work as they fit newer LOT numbers only. Then you have 2-3 different versions A/B/C for many LOTS to handle and upgrade. Still you are not at Block 4 full standard yet with updated engine and gbx with new environmental control system to deliver desired cooling capacity for full Block 4 weapons loads for the 3 versions A/B/C. Great AI application how to best move fwd. My guess is that the AI will tell USAF/USN/USMC to knock down all single digit LOT numbers to spare parts and decide who should stay as spares and which to rebuild to a later LOT#.
Pentagon felt different after seeing the flying prototype and untold flying hours.
We don’t know what the Pentagon felt — the decision was announced by the WH, not by the Pentagon. It may thus be political rather than military.
We do, however, know what the Pentagon feels about the KC-46A and the F-35 — because they’ve told us in very explicit terms. Despite “untold flying hours”, both are still gremlin-riddled lemons.
DOD made a decision. You don’t have to like it, or you can continue to espouse conspiracy theories, whatever rocks your boat.
@williams:
While I have seen something from Abalone aka Bryce (there can’t be two people like that in the NL!) once or twice even worth reading let alone a real validity, I suspect strongly its valid.
You may not remember but the Orange Angry one, had a non defense facility in Wisconsin getting one of the LCS contracts. Wisconsin is one of the blue bulwark states that make or break an election.
So yea, the OA dictating a choice to DOD, yea. DOD may have been leaning in that direction, but if the award had gone to Cessna I would not have been surprised.
That is the sort of lunnie tunes we have in the WH.
Boeing did develop a fighter jet , with Dennis Muilenberg as the project Chief engineer !
The loser in the JSF contest, even after McDD came on board for some fixer uppers.
The X-32.
That was a tech demonstrator — not a fighter jet.
It got rejected, and never saw active service.
Next?
You said
– “No recent experience with *fighter design* “…not a ‘fighter jet’
The X32 was an actual prototype- not tech demonstrator- in the flyoff stage of JSF, or Joint strike Fighter.
The Lockheed version which won was very very close to the airframe of the F-35. Same with Boeing, except it had some other changes from the later MDD input.
That was the whole purpose of 2 highly representative flying prototypes , to award a production contract from the flyoff testing and other evaluations
read what you write first
@ DoU
If it was rejected at the demonstrator phase and never went into actual production, then it wasn’t a “fighter” at all — it was an academic exercise.
A concept is not the same as a product.
The X in any aircraft designation means it is intended to be a concept demonstrator. A Y in the designation means prototype. In the case of the X-32 it was developed as just that. The proposal for the PWSC configuration was significantly different. LM being the shrewd competitor they are claimed their X-35 was actually a prototype and their proposal contained pretty much the same aircraft as the flew in the “X” competition.
This X-36 from Boeing was a technology demonstrator
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_X-36
The X-32 was the JSF final two contender that was near to the production airframe just as the Lockheed X-35 was ( they both used F-22 engines)
X doesn’t mean technology demonstrator exclusively anymore
@DoU
Is it about the airframe?
You’re still stuck in the mindset of last century.
@ DoU
Quoting from Wikipedia (emphadis added):
“The Boeing X-32 is a *concept demonstrator* aircraft that was designed for the Joint Strike Fighter competition. It lost to the Lockheed Martin X-35 *demonstrator*…”
“On 16 November 1996, Boeing and Lockheed Martin were awarded contracts for them to produce two of their *concept demonstrator* aircraft (CDA) each.”
“On 14 December 1999, Boeing unveiled both its *concept demonstrators* at its plant in Palmdale, California, in front of 5,500 attendees”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_X-32
The X-32 prototype was actually designed by Dassault under contract by Boeing which had no experience with fighters.
Huh? What part? MD bought Boeing to add experience. Not sure where or how Dassault came into it?
‘Dassault design’ Claim that is without foundation They might have done standard plane better but had no harrier type STOVL experience
This is what the Chief test pilot said
“When I entered the program, they were pretty far along in the design process,” Yates said, adding that the initial X-32 design was a derivative of a secret, stealthy aircraft concept from a “black program” Boeing had in their portfolio and that the company “made the decision to leverage that design for their X-32.”
Good for Boeing making a YF-23 for the 2030’s. With long range, supercruise and internal robots it sounds like a Pacific interceptor.
Not sure why you mention the previous presidency. The NGAD program predates Biden. Flights to explore various technologies for the program have been going since 2020, meaning it had to have been started before then.
https://news.usni.org/2025/01/20/report-to-congress-on-u-s-air-force-next-generation-air-dominance-fighter
Do I think government supporting troublef Boeing played a role?
Yes I assume long term US OE aerospace played a role.
The F15, F18, Apache, 767, C17, B52 will all have become sustainability programs soon.
Or the better product won. If one were seriously inclined to know, there are plenty of articles on this competition.
Would it be beneficial to Boeing” ‘s bottom line? Yes, if executed correctly.
“Or the better product won.”
Or the better lobby won — far more likely.
@Keesje:
As long as the KC-46A is being built its not in your definition of a entertainment program. USAF has freed itself up with a long range fighter so it does not need a stealth tanker (smaller, less fuel offload, more needed etc).
Equally you don’t want Boeing defense going away and as long as their offering was viable, its a logical choice to maintain an industrial war aircraft base.
Its not like Boeing has not been working on this since the F-35 days. Also they have their Phantom Works and while that idea is copied, its a way to get things done reasonably fast.
What exactly is a “long range” fighter? Any idea?? Do you think they are going to be based in AK?
I will let you work that out. I know what aircraft are based in AK.
Can we stop acting as if Boeing showed up with a PowerPoint presentation?
DARPA also states that both Boeing’s and Lockheed Martin’s x-planes flew “several hundred hours each” during the evaluation. It’s unclear what the state of these aircraft are now. They could have served their finite purpose — not uncommon for flight demonstration vehicles with limited airframe hours designed into them — or they could continue to support NGAD and other programs, we just don’t know. Boeing’s aircraft could remain of particular value.
Regardless, the fact that both have flown so many hours means that substantial risk was reduced, especially if they were somewhat production representative, which is a more common development tactic in an age of digital engineering and advanced rapid manufacturing. This also means the decision to choose Boeing was based on a lot of real performance data via flight testing, presumably in a quasi head-to-head manner. This may be a large factor in whether or not Lockheed Martin moves to protest the award decision.
https://www.twz.com/air/f-47-was-born-out-of-secret-x-planes-built-by-both-boeing-and-lockheed
In any case, the US will go it alone with Trump geopolitical mess. No risk sharing partners (outside the US) and with threat of the US “turning off” systems at a whim, why would any country want to buy this aircraft?
So, the US will have its 6th gen fighter F47, China will have J36, FCAS by France, Germany, Spain, Tempest, being developed by the British, Japanese, and Italians, Russia with SU57 which will give the rest of world choices besides the US
Indeed.
“”Our allies are calling constantly,” Trump added, saying foreign sales could be an option. “They want to buy them also.””
Which allies are those, Mr. Trump?
None left 🙈
Russia? You never know with the orange one.
@David Pritchard
You (and @Pedro) will be interested in this story:
“The U.S. is not prepared to win an economic war against China-built containerships, farmers, ocean carriers warn”
“Business interests, from U.S. farmers to global ocean carriers, are warning of severe economic damage from proposals being considered by the U.S. government to hit containerships made in China with steep fines when they call on U.S. ports. The goal of bringing more shipbuilding back to the U.S. is at odds with reality in the global ocean trade market, they say, where virtually all container traffic will soon be carried on ships built in China.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/24/us-not-prepared-to-win-economic-war-against-china-built-containerships.html
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Fits the narratives of increasing US isolation, backfiring tariffs, and misplaced utopianism as regards domestic industry.
simple solution to this tariff mess US senate with 60 votes can override Trump “economic emergency” executive orders for tariffs
“Donald Trump wants to make US shipbuilding great again by imposing levies on Chinese vessels. Critics say the move could devastate the US economy, hit global trade and fuel inflation”
https://x.com/business/status/1904014832351011093
What’s the objective?
“BTW: US steel tariffs make it even more expensive to build ship in US 🤷♂️”
====
“Trump’s widespread imposition of import taxes, including on materials used in shipbuilding such as steel, will only make the domestic industry less competitive in global markets, said Rob Willmington, a Lloyd’s List analyst.”
WaPo: Trump wants to build more ships in the United States. It’s not so simple.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GmzsBMiWcAEkLiv?format=jpg&name=large
More screen shots:
“It appears to be written by people who have absolutely no idea how the maritime supply chain works”
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GmunCkhWgAAdA-5?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GmunCwlbkAACic-?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GmunDOYXEAAqUKd?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GmunDAoXUAAZEMS?format=jpg&name=medium
The objective is to run down the economy so oligarchs can steal the remaining pieces. Privatization of government services will bring billions to existing and many new oligarchs. Why do think they all lined up at the inauguration?
The US is basically incapable of building merchant ships. A comparison put man-hours per adjusted ton at 10-20 for Korea, Japan and China, versus ~50 for the US. Add expensive labor and outdated fabrication techniques – everyone in Asia uses laser cutting and centimeter precision, US yards still have to heat and hammer sections together.
US shipbuilding sort of works for warships (except the DDGX and the LCS) where the hull is <5% of the price, and it's actually great with submarines, but merchant ships are about cost and speed. You have to put out a section per day, every day, perfect each time, weld them up, send to sea, next.
The US hasn't build any merchant ships outside of small ones under the Jones Act for half a century; it will take decades to catch up to Samsung and Hyundai, if at all. The steels, the engineering, the labor skills are decades apart. Korea's shipbuilding leadership could be a huge resource for the US to leverage through its alliance, but sadly…
We can build merchant ships and do.
The reality is we are a high cost builder and we can’t do it on the economies of cost and scale done in South Korea and China.
Japan is a big ship builder as well, not sure how much govt support there.
US has Jones act that drives some. We build a lot of smaller vessels, but we also build tankers to replace the Alaska to West coast fleet aka double hulled due to Jones act.
> We can build merchant ships and do.
Not the same one in demand to cross the Pacific and service major ports from Europe to Asia.
How big are the tankers going from AS to the West coast?
Double hull is now required by the international community. Oops, forgot you guys have dropped out.
@TW
The last one was built like two decades ago.
Currently, the cost of building ships at the US shipyards is like 5 X than its competitors.
Yeah, so much empty talk of building ships in the US.
Relevant to this discussion
https://linkedin.com/pulse/ursablog-biting-hand-feeds-simon-ward-ouarf/
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GmafR4LWYAAsAXO?format=png&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GmafR4IXcAA1nDb?format=png&name=large
Many on Wall Street have now begrudgingly accepted Trump & Co. are determined to crash the economy. Buckle up!
“US manufacturing slipped back into contraction territory this month, plagued by a tariff-related rise in materials costs, while the service sector outlook deteriorated.”
https://x.com/business/status/1904172161046323318
“..could suggest future execution risk..”
Yea, verily. We’ll see how it goes.
Always good to see a news story from another perspective:
Jerusalem Post: “‘Just another F-35 fiasco?’: China, Russia, Iran mock Trump’s unveiling of F-47 stealth jet.”
“The unveiling of the Boeing F-47 by former US President Donald Trump this week was met not with awe across the globe, but with widespread skepticism, criticism and ridicule—particularly from China, Russia, Iran, and Arabic-speaking countries, where analysts and commentators questioned its cost, capabilities, and the political motives behind the announcement.”
““The Americans mocked Europe’s delta wings and the J-20’s canard-delta design for years,” one widely shared post read. “Now their own super-fighter uses it – a complete reversal.””
“The piece pointed out that the Pentagon had paused the program in 2024 over cost concerns and only revived it following Trump’s return to power.”
“Russian media was equally dismissive. Moskovsky Komsomolets, a major Moscow newspaper, headlined its article: “Trump baffled aviation experts with claims about a new super-fighter.” Quoting aviation analyst Denis Fedutinov, the paper noted, “There are no actual specifics yet,” and compared the announcement to Trump’s infamous 2020 pledge to build a “super-duper missile,” which failed to materialize.”
“In Arabic-speaking countries, particularly in the Gulf, reactions were mixed but laced with sarcasm. Trump’s declaration that “nothing in the world can rival it” was widely mocked. One Arabic-language post read, “Have you met the marketing department of Lockheed Martin?” Another user joked: “New plane, new claims… the usual American show. Impressive, but we’ve seen this show before.””
https://www.jpost.com/american-politics/article-847384
Yawwwwwwwwn🥱
Plus 1
> “The Americans mocked Europe’s delta wings and the J-20’s canard-delta design for years,”
Real life is often funnier than parody. This is literally possibly the most entertaining outcome
In fact two of the Major US Fighters were Delta Wing, F-102 and F-106.
We went in a different direction. We have played with all of it, like all aeronautics stuff, it has upside and downside plus and minus.
The US has tended to ranged fighters. WWII showed you needed that badly.
Early jets of course were not. F-16 and F-15 were.
I don’t know that anyone made fun of Europe, disagree yes. But then Europe is a different Arena than what the US is involved in World Wide.
Grippen was designed to suit Sweden, not anyone else. Notice that they always carry fuel tanks. Even if not max range, needed to time in the air.
Design difference are not making fun of people. Right or wrong they are at least intended for a doctrine and specs to fill that.
The effectiveness of moving the HQ to Virginia is now quite apparent, but the long term solution to Boeings problems has to include moving the HQ back to Seattle (IMHO)
cost-plus contracts (properly managed) generally produce a better and long term cheaper end product.
fixed price contracts incentivize the manufacturer to cut every corner and always select the cheapest short term option in the knowledge that they will get funding later to “update” the system to what it should have been in the first place.
Winning the contract is great, but Boeing must still execute the program correctly to profit from it.
@bilbo:
Agreed. But a caveat to that as I have pointed out, anything extra of fixed the USAF in this case messes up sec wise, they have to fix and on Boeing timeline. No we are not going to hire 50 engineers just to lay them off.
USAF is paying extra and other build concessions on the T-7A, somehow they got the spec for range wrong (really?).
Boeing built in flexibility into the T-7, its there to be had but its going to cost. Kaching.
the T-7 range requirement was based on (more or less) the aircraft it was replacing and the existing off the shelf airframes rather than based on real analysis of how they would like to use the aircraft or what opportunities longer range could bring. they wanted the range spec to be able to be met by those existing airframes.
this was not unreasonable as they (the AF) went into the program fully expecting to buy off the shelf T/A-50s or M-346s with tailored cockpits, sims and ground systems.
Then they chose the Boeing for (presumably) cost (as boeing knowingly underbid to get the long term money) and realized for not a whole lot more money (after Boeing’s sales team presented the idea) they could get a lot more range which would open up new training opportunities/capabilities.
the whole ejection seat issue is entirely government inflicted by a combination of directing the use of the Collins seat vs the MB seat and the absurdly wide size and weight window they are required to support in order to increase the eligible pool of fighter pilot candidates by about 4%.
Flawed or not, the USAF did analysis of the tender.
They can read as well as anyone and I find them not thinking Boeing could bid to minimum specs and get it as they were bent on getting that contract? Hmmm
The USAF changes its mind daily. Nuff said.
F-47 is not the end yet. Boeing may very well have TWO awards. LM is out on the Navy 6th Gen…only Northrop is left bidding. And the UAV awards are open too…probably to a broader array of defense contractors.
The recent press articles made it very clear there is more to come. NGAS is not happening, but the Navy 6th gen is (especially since the F18 is imminently going out of production). To that end…they will keep buying KC46A (or upgraded somewhat) indefinitely until the entire KC135 fleet is replaced (another Boeing “win”)
F47 just happened to be the first slice of the next multi-decade defense pie to go out. This probably also telegraphs the end of the most production military aircraft. In a world of 6th gen…how do you justify buying 4th gen?
“In a world of 6th gen…how do you justify buying 4th gen”
Cost benefit analysis: who needs a sledge hammer when a tack hammer is all that’s required?
Who needs 5th gen., now that we know that its “stealth” feature has been rendered defunct by recent radar improvements?
I read this morning that the F47 is slated to have “broad spectrum stealth”, in an attempt to counter these new radar improvements. However, who says that that goal can/will ever be realized?
Remember how the Zumwalt turned out: 3 ships, $4B each, so-called cutting edge — but a total white elephant.
@Abalone
For those nations interested in 4th gen…probaby going to be an enormous amount of second-hand product to pick through. Hard to see where there is enough organic demand to keep production lines running with new product. And that demand will have to come from non-NATO / Russia / China / (Australia, Japan, Korea, Singapore). Would need to be more in a civil defense role than any state-to-state combat role.
Maybe there is a market for aftermarket mods to warm over some older airframes. Just becuase you can point out warts with 5th gen does not make 4th gen the answer.
You’re forgetting 4.5 gen — all the radar/systems benefits of 5th gen, but less “stealth”…and, as a result, built to carry a much bigger payload of weaponry.
Ask Israel how happy it is that many of its neighbors will soon have 4.5 gen fighters. Also ask it how happy it is that Iranian MDS radar can lock onto its F35s.
As a general consideration: look at the chaos that the Houthis can cause without any fighter jets at all — just swarms of cheap drones. Similar story in Ukraine.
@Abalone
I think that last sentence you wrote is maybe the most important. There will be some highly evolved UAVs that are capable of doing most anything that a manned fighter can accomplish much more cheaply than any sub-6th gen installation with a manned pilot.
Australia, Japan and Singapore are done with 4th gen. All 3 are already buy F-35s.
Singapore had in an exercise 6 F-15SGs (among the latest, most capable, most modern 4th gen aircraft available) wiped out by 2 Australian F-35s. They were gone before they even did see the F-35s. While the Singapore F-35s were already planned, this accelerated the procurement significantly.
Well, all three *were* ready to buy F35s…but that was in a different era, wasn’t it?
Not sure how happy they currently are with that choice, seeing as they may not be able to use their fighters when and as they want.
A 5th gen fighter sitting on the ground is worth a lot less than a 4.5 gen fighter in the air.
Plus: when those orders were placed, the concept of “stealth” was still intact. But that’s now proven to be a dead duck.
Buyer’s remorse, methinks — like a lot of buyers here in Europe. At least some/most European users have a fleet of 4.5 gen fighters in addition to their F35s, so that reduces the vulnerability to whim…
The known F35 issues of inadequate speed, range, armament and up-time:
Australia: “We should ask for a refund on the F-35 fighter planes, not buy more”
“Given the plane’s long history of costly problems, we should be asking for a refund. The biggest mistake was to buy the plane in the first place. Labor should never have supported John Howard’s 2002 commitment to buy a fighter plane that lacks legs.”
https://johnmenadue.com/we-should-ask-for-a-refund-on-the-f-35-fighter-planes-not-buy-more/
—
Japan: “Unhappy With F-35 Fighters, Japan Wants To Upgrade American Stealth Jets Or Have An Aircraft Like F-22 Raptor”
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/f-35-fighters-japan-upgradestealth-jets-or-have-f-22-raptor/
That’s exactly the type of problem I talked about when your radar is not up to par in today’s world.
Yea yea yea.
F-22 not being built and Japan has a legitimate need for F-15EX type due to the distances, its not Europe with all those tiny states and water nearby.
F-35 has a parts issue and they are still trying to get a handle on it.
And the F-35 is not an F-47. Its LM, talk to their directors. Maybe you can get through to them, no one else can.
Boeing will have its own problems, any new aircraft does. What they are and how they play out? No one can say.
Mess ups per the F-35 will be avoided. Others will occur. It called defense and that has always had its issues.
@TW
> Japan has a legitimate need for F-15EX type due to the distances..
Don’t you hear from NdB that without up to par radar, the F-15 EX are more a hindrance than benefit?
Japan is not getting F-15EX. They are getting upgraded F-15 current.
Its not even in commission in the upgrade. Everyone has nothing but good to say about the EX.
USAF put the F-15EX in Okinawa
Those guys haven’t opened their eyes. Many also praised the F-35, including Europeans, hehe.
US is not Japan by the way.
So you keep flipping spaghetti out thinking something will stick?
Speaking from both sides of the mouth:
“Japan has a legitimate need for F-15EX type due to the distances”
@casey:
NG might be the logical choice for the Navy. Assuming a viable design.
LM has the F-35 franchise for 20 years to come.
NG while it has the B-21, they are already talking down the numbers so we may wind up with a B-2 program again.
Grumman was very deep into Navy build at one time, not relevant now but Lockheed never was.
Like the F-35, you spend enough money on an aircraft you can fix its issues. LM just keeps getting in deeper on the code end these days they can’t keep up on.
Doubt Boeing will get the navy fighter contract. No sane (?) admiral will want to play second fiddle to the AF in the shops of a troubled contractor.
BTW, the F23 was in many ways superior to the F22, especially for long range, stealth and speed…
For budget reasons, may not have a choice
Second best is good enough when it’s the *first* fifth generation, according to LM brochures.
F-23 was never fully developed
I would agree with the original post if they said YF-23 was superior to the YF-22.
I always wonder: Costs are a benefit to some and a loss to others, it’s a system after all. When I look at these economic systems I don’t look at the individual transactions (I am on the cost side of some and the benefit side of others) I try to see if there are some who are getting filthy rich off the cash flow.
“Critics have questioned the cost and the necessity of the program as the Pentagon is still struggling to fully produce its current most advanced jet, the F-35, which is expected to cost taxpayers more than US$1.7 trillion over its lifespan. In addition, the Pentagon’s future stealth bomber, the B-21 Raider, will have many of the same cutting edge technologies in advanced materials, AI, propulsion and stealth.
“More than 1,100 F-35s have already been built for the U.S. and multiple international partners.
“A fleet of about 100 future B-21 stealth bombers at an estimated total cost of at least US$130 billion is also planned. The first B-21 aircraft are now in test flights.
“With evolving drone and space warfare likely to be the center of any fight with China, Dan Grazier, a military procurement analyst, questions whether “another exquisite manned fighter jet really is the right platform going forward.” Grazier, director of the national security reform program at the Stimson Center, said US$20 billion is “just seed money. The total costs coming down the road will be hundreds of billions of dollars.”
https://www.wingsmagazine.com/eyeing-china-threat-trump-announces-boeing-wins-contract-for-secretive-future-fighter-jet/
What a combination.
“.. a military that is simultaneously expensive and unequal to the tasks it confronts..”
https://x.com/nfergus/status/1803112148073107461
To proceed with the F-47 will impact tanker needs and they can’t afford both the NGAD and NGAS.
Yea, you don’t need a stealthy tanker if you got the range.
There are also other ways to protect tankers. No one talks about the active jamming systems the US has.
See this 👇
Generals always fight the last war.
Oh wow.
Sun Soo or some such and the Art of War? Or was the European guy? Klaustwits or some such.
Fake North, Attack South and other gems
The strategy, Yankee edition
https://x.com/HoyasFan07/status/1905587933135904804
Well other than FPD, no one has proven drones work. And those are both controlled by a person as well as gone to Fiber Optic lines to ensure no jamming. Talk about a battlefield (or country wide) mess!
So you jam the GPS, now you have what? Jam the com link, now you have what.
People who insist drones are the end all and be all are getting far out over their ski’s. Done that, wound up in a crash.
There is always a transition, and so far nothing truly autonomous is working, more accurately has worked.
The transition from Battleships to Aircraft carriers took place over 30 years roughly. And they still found use of BB, bombardment and anti air.
As Airbus has shown, they can’t program (or won’t) even something as SOP as loss of Pitot, it just dumped it on the pilots (AF447). Yes, long term a loss of pitot is a pilot issue, short term? Dump it on pilots not expecting it. Cool.
They don’t trust their own programing. If this was an F-35, it would have had the situation set, computed there were not mountains, given the Pitots 20 seconds to clear (don’t change anything) and if no pitot clear, then 5 deg up nose and 85% throttle (which is what pilots are supposed to do)
If they can’t program that much? Yea, a fully autonomous aircraft? Really.
Did not Musk do that with his car in two dimensions and failed miserably?
Now add third dimension and how to handle system failures.
Someday they will do it but not today, not tomorrow and not 20 years from now.
Congratulations to the Boeing team. As a recent retired Boeing employee let’s see how well they can execute for readiness in 5 years.
I have my doubts but in the same notion wish them the best of luck.
Pretty much my thoughts. They have kept the F/A-18 as modernized as the USN will fund.
Clearly the USN has little use for the F-35C. Nothing they could do to get more range out of it as it was compromise structurally by the F-35B which should have been a separate Air Frame with the same systems.
But Boeing has done well if not very good with the F-15EX. Granted they got the money from the Saudis but I have heard nothing but good on that version. Frankly its what they should have done on the 737!
The T-7A has some issues, but I think that goes back to fixed bid. While it should have worked for the KC-46A, thats really not new ground in the scheme of things, new aircraft (or anything) always has stuff to get sorted out.
So Boeing does what you have to do, don’t give the USAF something for nothing. Same as the KC-46A vision system, while Boeing messed up the narrow, the USAF spec on the wide was met and they did not like it, they wanted Boeing to fix it on their dime. Boeing said, we will fix the narrow, the wide is your problem.
I suspect it was better to integrate the two, but its a fixed price and Boeing has every right to stand on, you want something different, you pay for it, we are hosing ourselves (pun intended) here already, we are not going to add to it.
So like the boom issue, the USAF ponied up the money.
The last from T-7A was the USAF was not happy with what they specked, range was one issue. So now they are paying Boeing to add range (and I see hints of some other mods) and Boeing gets an extension as well as building some trials aircraft.
P-8 has been a success as is the E-7 (now) and AH-64 continues to sell (or did) as well as Chinook. Even the Brits gave up having their own engines put into their new AH-64 and went with stock (the costs do add up when you do that, same as the Spay in the F-4, you got a tad here for a little less there and in the end it cost you a lot more for overall nothing.
Boeing and LM had flying prototypes with hundreds of hours of flying time, and Boeing had the more compelling case. Congrats to the old Mickey D team (yes, I know they are all gone).
You are right; execution is the key. I bet the new CEO is drilling that into the team’s heads.
Tech demonstrators, not prototypes. You don’t understand the difference?
Rather than contribute you attack.
There is a wide area of what is a Prototype and a test article.
In fact you can have a mix of that in an aircraft with the engines a given, the frame generally representative and systems integration under development.
I go with prototypes as the test articles are in the past. This is a generally representative product though many details will change. Some based on what works and some based on industrialization.
One reason we had fewer P-38 than needed in WWII was it was a complex build vs a P-47 or a Corsair.
Not aware that you are an experienced aircraft development engineer, pls correct me if I’m wrong.
You can continue to drum up your fantasies but they aren’t grounded on reality or anything close to reality.
I’m going to circle back to what I said previously in case you didn’t notice: tech demonstrators aren’t prototypes, serving different purposes.
Argue against what I said, not dreaming up any attacks.
After many posts here that tried to pretend two prototypes were flown, damn, Kendall came out to clarify there were two “demonstrators”, they are experimental aircraft and not a “production prototype”!
@Pedro: A prototype is defined as “a first or preliminary version of a device or vehicle, from which other forms are developed.” Thus, a prototype does demonstrate the validity of the concept and possibly areas for improvement, especially when new technology is being explored.
A “production prototype” is usually called a “first article,” and provides validation that manufacturing processes can produce the product as-designed, usually when novel manufacturing processes are being explored.
The extensive debate to affix a label post hoc with no logical basis for argument is typical of most debates on this forum… useless countering of personal opinion rather than a cross-education of facts to eliminate the basis for dissent.
@ Pete P
Quoting from your own definition (emphasis added):
“A prototype is defined as a first or preliminary version of a *device or vehicle*…”
On the other hand, a technology demonstrator is intended to demonstrate a *technology*.
These are not the same.
For example, Airbus intended testing its hydrogen propulsion *technology* on an A380 — despite having no intention of ultimately commercially employing the technology on any in-service A380.
Similar example: the planned use of an MD-80 to demonstrate NASA’s TTBW *technology*…althogh the technology will almost certainly never be employed on any in-service MD-80.
Syntax matters: some people use it accurately…others less so. A technology demonstrator does not equate to a prototype.
In the context of this all, the F-35 was supposed to be the Close Air Support platform as well as all the other stuff.
An AH-64 is CAS as is the A-10 (probably the ultimate CAS). Both are hardened to take standard AA. Nothing you do RCS helps in CAS. That is the arena of AA and Manpads. So the F-35 has a gun, with all of 2 seconds worth of ammo.
The P-47 (uh sorry, F-47) will be all air dominance with attack capability for SEADS and high value behind the line targets. The F-22 is primarily air dominance.
Speculation Boeing will get the Navy’s F18 replacement contract and there will be cost savings between the two programs
https://www.twz.com/air/navy-f-a-xx-stealth-fighter-selection-this-week-report
Agree with TWZ, that Northrop, LM and Boeing probably have had flying concepts flying for years and the DOD is about to make their decision based on that flying time.
LM, NG and Boeing all have various cooperative programs or have had them in the past.
No reason that NG and Boeing would not work on common sensors for two different platforms.
As we have seen with the A220, composites are great but expanding to high volume production, an issue.
this is interesting as its the logical future, a mix of systems that can be done in higher volumes at lower costs.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4424169-boeing-begins-faa-certified-testing-for-777minus-9-braking-system-a-key-milestone
I am still laughing at Boeing getting its get out of jail free card, except the US gets something (see what) from it vs a give away.
Now to parley the Capsule into paying though I think NASA is stupid on that subject. You got something that works, stay with or live with it. Worst case the cargo part still works.
Having Space under defense is weird, they need a third miscellaneous division. NASA work is non military regardless and only the Launch section with LM is military.
Still they have the stupid Moon thing, which really is a Moonshot (well a try at one, its floundering badly) . Give it to Space X, by the time they get it the OA will have blown a mental or physical gasket.
Top secrets leaked by Trump insider(s)! 😂
Can they spell incompetence??
“American war planning usually takes place in highly secure facilities. But the Trump administration planned its strikes on the Houthis using a group chat—and accidentally included The Atlantic’s editor in chief, @JeffreyGoldberg .”
https://x.com/TheAtlantic/status/1904205971779408052
https://x.com/HillaryClinton/status/1904263639605084512
Did you read what Vance and Hegseth said about Europe?
And Trump then expects his “allies” to be interested in purchasing US military equipment?
– Apparent ignorance of previous, unsuccessful attempts by the US and EU to curtail Houthi attacks;
– Ignorance of alternative trade routes currently being used to circumvent Suez;
– Ignorance of the fact that container ships calling on Europe from Asia then regularly cross the Atlantic to the US…so this isn’t just on Europe.
And these people are running a country…?
Expect mass cancellations of foreign orders of US military kit in the coming weeks…
Sorry, you signed contracts so you gotta full fill them, Candada will take its first Trench of F-35.
We can hope the OAO kicks off and we do a reset.
Yea its absurd, but then that is life. We are in the middle of a Clown show.
Any purchase contract can be cancelled.
Cancellation might entail forfeiture of deposits paid, but that may be an acceptable loss for the purchasing party in view of other considerations…which is very likely in the current situation.
—
On that note:
“Canadian general who recommended F-35 deal now calls for purchase of other jets”
https://ottawacitizen.com/public-service/defence-watch/canadian-general-f-35-fighter-jet-deal
Used to be an ethical journalist-reporter would have checked with a top official and explained it may have been accidental and NOT published any details at all.
years ago – a way of muzzling news anchors etc was to read them in at secret level similar programs or types of information that are ‘ classified at above confidential – time sensitive data. For example – many years ago I saw and heard a secret level cartoon video on basic steps to safe or arm a nuke missile.
Narrator was listed at end and was a then very well known news anchor. Therefore he KNEW to NOT report-publish any such related info acquired by accident or other sources.
Militarily sensitive details were not published by the journalist.
However, he very correctly published the rest of the exchange, because it is in the public interest to know how incompetent and reckless its leaders are.
You believe a journalist or a friend could be add to a secretive chat group (using a commercial app not approved for classified use) deliberating a military plan by accident? 🤦♂️
A phone number was all it took. The person was only identified by initials , happens all the time apparently on standard Signal chat group
Where’s the proof that there’s a mix-up? Who got left out?
IIRC Goldstein was asked to join the group ahead of time.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gm0etZTXgAAKthm?format=png&name=small
Bottom line is they are Clowns and than you Atlantic, we got to see the Emperor (ungh) has no cloths even if he is a clown.
Senate Armed Services Chair @SenatorWicker told NewsNation @KristenEskow his committee plans to investigate The Atlantic’s reports of the Signal group chat. He wants the investigation to be bipartisan and he wants the committee to have access to all of the messages in the chat.
https://x.com/KellieMeyerNews/status/1904626902075088924
NYT Opinion | The Worst Part of Pete Hegseth’s Group Chat Debacle
> The Worst Part of Pete Hegseth’s Group Chat Debacle: “Nothing destroys a leader’s credibility with soldiers more thoroughly than hypocrisy or double standards. When leaders break the rules that they impose on soldiers, they break the bond of trust.”
That assumes anyone ever had it!
More info on the F-47. TWZ is a great source of defense news and information.
https://www.twz.com/air/what-the-f-47s-canards-say-about-the-rest-of-its-design
The article uses a lengthy discussion to confirm what we already knew, i.e. that canards kill stealth.
It then goes on to indulge in some pretty wild speculation on this topic, positing that BA has a magical solution for the incompatability…or that the canard fighter is just a “European” version, and that there’ll be a “Pacific” version without canards.
Seriously?
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LOL………………..Good one Keesje
Do not feed it, report it.
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Off-topic, but a major BA news development:
“Boeing (BA) Reconsiders Guilty Plea in 737 MAX Fatal Crash Probe”
Story Highlights: Boeing is reportedly attempting to retract its previous guilty plea in two deadly crashes of its 737 MAX aircraft.
Aerospace company Boeing is reportedly reconsidering its guilty plea in the two fatal crashes of its 737 MAX aircraft. According to the Wall Street Journal, Boeing is seeking a softer stance from the Justice Department under President Donald Trump as the new administration is reviewing several ongoing criminal cases. The report also stated that if Boeing is permitted to revoke its plea deal or face a less severe penalty, it would showcase the administration’s lenient approach to white-collar crime enforcement.
https://www.tipranks.com/news/boeing-ba-reconsiders-guilty-plea-in-737-max-fatal-crash-probe#google_vignette
Mr Hamilton had a post last month about going off topic, I will find it for you.
You don’t need to find it for me, because I remember it.
I remember that he said that he tends to tolerate newsworthy deviations from topic — particulatly those with links — because they alert him to significant news that he might otherwise miss.
All bad news has to be buried, never seen daylight again.
No surprises there 🙈
—
Don’t you think it’s interesting that, just a few days after BA wins a surprise contract for the F-47, we get news that BA may now also get more lenient treatment from Trump’s DOJ?
Some commenters may want to bury that news, but I think it’s remarkable.
I lost my father to someones error. I don’t believe for a second that person was careless or anything else, but he did put the drive together wrong and it killed two people when it failed.
The Drive mfg was at fault as there was two ways to assemble that part, it should have been designed so only one way.
The mechanic assembled it wrong.
Our families did not sue either one. I can tell you no amount of money pays for loosing someone like that.
What does make the difference is if you get enough money to go on with your life. We did, no where near the kind of dollars the victims have gotten (and good for them). But it was enough to stabilize us, allow us to stay in Alaska. Enough for my mom to get trained in a job and we went onto decent and good lives.
My mother passed recently, she left us some money. I would give it all back to have her with us. That hole will never be filled in missing her.
Wrecking Boeing will not bring anyone back, it would in fact impact more lives and incur many more losses. Other people would die because they lost their support system and a routine issue goes untreated.
I would have no issue if the put the people at Boeing that caused this in prison, that never happens and its not going to now.
It’s about public prosecution and the show of justice, not about lawsuits by victims’ family. 🤷♂️
You don’t get there is no justice.
Getting your people back would be justice.
The whole thing moves through the courts and in the end its overturned even if convicted as they are rich.
Why are there murder and manslaughter charges on the book and in practice? 🙄
Don’t be ridiculous even though everyone here knows both you and Williams are the biggest fans of BA!
@Pedro:
You seem unable to read plain text.
I am a fan of having a US mfg of LCA. Boeing is what we have.
I have posted my critique and in fact was a trend setter in regards to the management killing Boeing which sadly has proven to be true.
Like most people, I want my country to remain intact and prosper. Like all countries, mine has its ups and downs and we are in a down.
But I do hope Boeing survives and prospers, not for Boeing but for the country and all the people in it who make a living off aerospace.
Can I be proud of Boeing? Not as of the last 20 some years. That does not mean I don’t hope for their redemption.
Europeans are proud of what Airbus has done and no matter how I feel about how they got there, they indeed have done well and its a rare case of a government/private partnership that worked (Space X is as well)
If I am a fan of anything its the United States though I recognize the issues. Funny how you point fingers when all of your countries have their own ugly past and boondoggles.
Plain text says otherwise. Who is in denial now?
How about Greenland? How about Canada?
The integrity of other nations are not worthy?
MAGA also want America to be great. How are you any different from the irrational, wishful thinking crowd?
America doesn’t need more patriots who talk loud about: I’d rather die for my country. What America need are those who work hard at school, do maths homework and have excellent marks.
February 27, 2025
People: I try to exercise some liberties about what is or isn’t on topic and generally avoid getting into the weeds because (1) I don’t have time and (2) because while some things are clearly tangential, they aren’t going off into “left field” like bringing up nuclear wars or stuff like this.
TW begins his latest comment on topic and dives into personal experience. I don’t find this objectionable. Pritchard’s insertion of Stephanie Pope, while not on topic, is a fair addition because it was breaking news, so-to-speak. TW’s reply was out of order.
One reason I allow breaking news or tangential news items to be included, especially with URLs, is that this often brings something to my attention that I otherwise might have missed.
So I exercise tolerance and latitude. What I drop the hammer on is insulting each other, going off on geopolitical stuff that is clearly irrelevant, and–unless political actions are the topic–I won’t tolerate getting into MAGA, Libs, AfD or any of this type of political commentary because LNA is not a political venue.
Even when a topic, like tariffs, is political, comments must be civil or I will drop the hammer.
Hamilton
You’re welcome; I’ll let you get back to your tangential post. (“Tangential”……like that word…….have to add it my other favorite new word……..” transitory.”)
How gracious.
Next time, pay better attention when you attempt to transcribe what others said in the past 👍
p.s. Jerome Powell was famously using “transitory” years ago — so it’s not “new” at all 🙈
More news coming this week:
“Boeing, Northrop Grumman Await US Navy Next-Generation Fighter Contract This Week, Sources Say”
“WASHINGTON, March 25 (Reuters) – The U.S. Navy is expected to announce this week who will build its next-generation carrier-based stealth fighter – a program worth hundreds of billions over its lifetime and a key part of plans to confront China, people familiar with the decision said.”
“The Navy will choose one winner for the engineering and manufacturing development (EMD) phase – a significant milestone for the F/A-XX, which is meant to replace the Navy’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fleet.”
https://gcaptain.com/boeing-northrop-grumman-await-us-navy-next-generation-fighter-contract-this-week-sources-say/
@Abalone
Next up is another tranche of KC46A (or “B”) and a decision on NGAP. NGAP may very well be a dual installation of a single winner.
Go KC-46A (flaws and alll!)
Do you mean cracks and all?😇
Seems like very different from what BA CFO West tried to portrait:
From TWZ:
“TWZ was the first to report on the latest halt in Pegasus deliveries due to cracking. The root cause of those cracks, which have *also been found on at least 11 previously delivered KC-46s, has yet to be determined*. Once that is done, *the Air Force and the manufacturer Boeing will have to agree to a remediation plan*, after which deliveries of new tankers can resume.”
They found it, they will fix it.
No more complicated than an A330MRT boom falling off.
1. Make sure you tighten up the bolts
2. Do not ram the boom with a fighter.
TW
They haven’t found the root cause. You know better than them and have the answer? Doubtful.
It ain’t complicated, all you know is its not public yet but yes they know what the issue is and how it could get there.
TW
Says the resident expert of accident root causes!
The contract would be worth single-digit billions of dollars in the short term,only 50% or less of the NGAD?!
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) paved the way. It cannot be stated enough how this decision was based on proven concepts.
“Under research and development contracts with DARPA, Boeing and Lockheed Martin designed two X-planes as risk reduction for the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) Platform. These aircraft first flew in 2019 and 2022, logging several hundred hours each.
As reflected in the statement from Chief of Staff of the Air Force Gen. David Allvin: “For the past five years, the X-planes for this aircraft have been quietly laying the foundation for the F-47 — flying hundreds of hours, testing cutting-edge concepts, and proving that we can push the envelope of technology with confidence.”
DARPA’s involvement began with its Air Dominance Initiative study in 2014, which resulted in the agency’s Aerospace Innovation Initiative. “It is often only in future decades when DARPA’s disruptive impact can be unveiled – today, we’re proud to be able to share the 10-year DARPA research arc that has culminated in the F-47 program, defining the next era of American air dominance,” said DARPA Acting Director Rob McHenry.”
https://www.darpa.mil/news/2025/darpa-f-47-plane
Great — so *concepts* were tested 👍
Let’s see what happens in the *implementation* phase, when those *concepts* have to be incorporated into a real-world airframe.
The F-35 was preceded by an X-35…and we all know how that fiasco eventually panned out:
“The X-35A first flew on 24 October 2000 and tested air vehicle performance and handling characteristics. After 28 test flights, the aircraft was converted to the X-35B, which added the shaft-drive lift fan, aft swivel nozzle, and roll posts. On 20 July 2001, to demonstrate the X-35’s STOVL capability, the X-35B took off in less than 500 feet (150 m), went supersonic, and landed vertically.[23][24][25] The X-35C first flew on 16 December 2000 and tested simulated carrier recovery and power approach.[26]
“In the fly-off between the X-32 and the X-35, the latter was judged to be the winner. As a result, a contract for System Development and Demonstration (SDD) of the F-35 was awarded on 26 October 2001 to Lockheed Martin.[27]”
What could possibly go wrong…? 🙈
@Abalone
The biggest problem with the F35 was that it tried to be three aircraft. That Marine version was a bad idea. A Navy / Air Force common aircraft would have done a lot better.
Additionally, and this applicable to all aircraft design, we have no idea whether the target weight of the F47 is realistic. The F35 target weight was set far too low and thus the design point of thrust meant it was underpowered.
I would be extremely interested to know what the power demands are going to be for all the whiz-bang electronic suite. The scope growth of that on the F35 did not help either.
I’m merely pointing out that the conceptual X-35 did not adequately pave the way for the follow-up F-35. That fact is essentially independent of what the X-35/ F-35 “tried to be” — we can similarly assert that the F-47 is “trying to be” all sorts of things.
A flying *concept* in no way guarantees a successful real-world aircraft.
And particularly where BA is concerned: show us, don’t tell us.
It’s funny how aircraft can go from being one thing at award to drifting into something else entirely.
A test flight only tests what you know to want to look at today with as best of an approximation of the aircraft that can be made. Hopefully, those tests contemplated future aircraft demands so that this thing is not hamstrung through development. Nobody needs another development program setup to fail.
Along those lines, the B21 has gone “relatively” well. Hard to know how far into “state of the art” the F47 is designed to go
Sour grapes on steroids, working into being a Lemon.
Unfortunately the opinion lacks any logic.
Casey states is exactly right, the F-35 concept was fine, trying to make it into 3 different versions was a serious flaw. The B version drove the form and that wrecked the form line needed to be efficient. Ergo poor range. What most miss is the CAS function, so that in affect makes it 3 sub variants. Built in gun A and B (2 seconds worht so useless) and the C has a Gun Pod that can be mounted.
Why would you waste all that money on stealth to have it strafe?
LM has been late with software, but it does as intended. The Maint software is being or has been replaced. Not sure why they could not clean it up but it had some deep flaw. The forces gave up on it.
The F-47 has a clearly defined mission. Much like its illustriou9s forbearer, air suprmecy. But, some aircraft also had a ground attack capaibly, aka Fighter Bomber. The USN kept the Corsair on and had a new version post WWII. It was as good as a Hellcat air to air, but far m ore capable as a Fighter Bomber.
In this case not CAS but missile targets. glided bombs etc per SEAD, Command centers and high value high return.
Nothing conflicted about that. The F-15E has done it, the F/A-18 has done it, as has Rafale, Typhoon and the SU Series.
Its not that the F-35 can’t do it, its the F-35 range that is the problem and that goes back to the B version messing with aerodynamic design.
This is also a USAF variant. A Navy fighter has compromises. This does not. The last successful cross was the F-4 Phantom.
France Kludged Carrier onto a Rafale, its not nearly as good as an F/A-18.
So, despite trying to equate F-35 with F-47, the data set disagrees.
You can contend that its going to be flawed as a defense program, time will tell on that.
The background between the two programs is totally different.
The B-21 appears to be working.
As long as the base is set right, you can fix the issues. Same with the T-7A. Nothing inherently a problem. Canopy blow off was, and no idea why they used that system (its been used before).
But the US laws also drive ejection to small individuals, usually women but not always. A lot of money could be saved by simply not allowing the hard to design to lighter weights.
Its both a social and practical aspect, your pilot pool is better.
All that said, the F-47 and F-35 are totally different approaches and the F-35 like the F-111 has proven that is flawed. Make it work good for one arena (F-15/16), the one you need the most (Air Dominance) and then add on kit to make it flexible (F-15E and now EX)j
Its what the USAF is doing and the F-22 is still the apex predator of the air with its ALL around stealth aspects.
Depends on a lot how well the engine performs. The USAF hasn’t made a decision yet, AFAIK. So all these talks about flying hours and derisk are no more than talks. The engine would be a game-changer, oh like the GTF.
It’s the first installation of a 3 stream engine. This design concept was proposed as a new engine on the F35. It’s been in development longer than that
I wonder how long it’ll take to get the engine ready, around 2030?
AW: “GE Aerospace announced Feb. 19 that it had completed a key milestone for its XA102 adaptive cycle engine and will move ahead to procurement, assembling and test of a full-scale demonstrator engine.”
@Pedro
Have to think faster than that…that is 5 years away. First flight is scheduled for early 2029. Would guess you would want to back up the engine being “done” by early 2028.
Both PW and GE offered the adaptive engine as a refresh option for the F35, but the award ultimately went to doing a core upgrade.
I thought about that, so I decided to look for any recent precedent:
https://www.flightglobal.com/pratt-and-whitneys-gtf-geared-turbofan-runs-at-full-thrust/77718.article
Ah yes, that was the flight demo program. Was a proof of concept platform using some relatively available assets. That all came together in a couple years starting with ground demo and then flying it for performance data. It was never a final design.
The lag between F35 award and first flight was about 5 years. 2029 is going to be really tight. Either a highly aggressive target or an engine design much further into development than expected
GE was serious about their Adaptive engine.
How viable it was? It had to be close to able to be built if they proposed it for the F-35 upgrade.
I think the F135 engine upgrade is the right choice, you don’t need to teeth a new engine , but it also indicates its not that far away from being an early production item.
The origins of the adaptive engine go back around 10 years or so after the F136 engine was defunded on the F35. There have actually been ground demonstration engines from GE and PW on 3-stream engines…just nothing detail designed to fit an aircraft.
I have no reason to believe this engine concept will not work. Where I would get most concerned on any new engine design is where turbine temperatures get involved. This is fundamentally a cold-section hack to re-direct air to the core during takeoff and to bypass during cruise.
Here is a link to some more background on the development program.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptive_Versatile_Engine_Technology
@Casey:
As reported earlier this year regarding the ACE
> … two contenders to procure, assemble, and test a prototype ground demonstrator, with testing likely in the late 2020s.
So, to fill in some details.
GE and PW x F-16/15 engines are right at 4000 lbs (yea, look it up in metric I ain’t doing the work for you)
F-135 weighs around 6200 pounds. Makes sense as a lot of go pup out of a single engine fighter.
It all comes down to size, size of the engine bays and what can be made to work.
Engines we got. Adaptive from GE for sure. PW? Hard telling as they did not want to kill the F135 franchise. They have it locked in, they could let GE hang itself out on the new tech and keep a low level effort and do lessons learned.
This is good info on an area that Boeing should sell off. Its not a core business so sell it and the satellites and Jeppenson and focus on LCA and its now preeminent air dominance division (train in a T-7A and fly the might F-47!). LM or Raytheon would snap that op up in a fraction of a second if they could and for good money, sadly its a growth industry, they can’t make Patriots fast enough
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2025/03/25/boeing-bolsters-patriot-firepower-for-next-gen-threat-landscape/
Tangential to be sure, the other big award floating in the ether is for “golden dome”
I hope that was said in jest.
Star Wars is not coming back no matter how delusional the President is.
@TW
In another world, this would not be a priority. I can tell you there is a lot of energy around this one right now from the industrial base. If a president wants to spend a lot of money, the defense contractors of America will help you spend that.
Far be it from to speculate how real the desire for this system really is.
I would say there is no real plan for this system yet, but it is more than a simple idea.
@Casey:
It is a simple idea form a simpleton. Clown.
The cost is impossible. Sure industry is happy to spend our money.
You need a detailed plan and then get it through congress. MAD in its simplicity is not costly.
No system is perfect and with nukes, it has to be.
Its just the OAO thinking he can wave his hand and its a done deal.
No reason that the F-47 and the F/A-XX can’t share systems. The radar front may be a bit different, but the back-end stays the same (maybe more or less processing power). That goes for all active and passive sensors.
They may be mo0unted differently, but the same adversary requires the same systems even if they are variations of it.
Probably the single most critical is the engines and the reports are the Navy is not going to use the adaptive engine. Not sure why though cost and simplicity would be factors.
One of the F-35 problems has been add on processing and trying to keep ahead of the cooling needs in a stealthy airframe. No idea if an adaptive engine is better for that or not, but with two engines you increase that capability.
The other one I have wondered about is why not have a open and shut cooling system that you can cool down the fuel? Mustang solved that in WWII with a system that gave it a boost. You could not use it in combat but if you gain something before combat then your fuel efficiency getting there goes up.
Will these have super cruise?
Considering that the NGAD almost did not happen due to its budget, it would make sense that the Navy and Air Force’s next fighter program have a lot in common to keep unit prices in check. The F35 is a bridge too far. I have read that the concept would have yielded a better fighter if the Marine STOL version had not been part of it.
Was always going to happen . The ‘budget’ roadblock was Boeing saying no to a fixed price EMD contract
A lot of agreement with both points.
F-35 engines less common parts and more a proven and very powerful engine.
You can do a lot with that power, including just not using it sans need. Less wear and tear and longevity. It might be too much engine power and weight wise and the latest GE engines used in the F-15EX would be preferred.
Engines are fascinating as the P&W version of the F-15 engine while rated the same did not have the same acceleration (older engine design). I think they redesigned it but then GE had a leg up on in service experience.
Or cores from the adaptive engines could be the basis for the USN.
It should be noted Boeing has stood its ground on contracts. The E-7 was the same. I assume they looked at USAF specs and it was, yea the Radar is the same but everything else is different, no way are we going fixed price (or a really really high fixed price) .
In reality that was KC-46A. It had all new gear and a lot of adders not on a tanker before and Boeing failed to consider that (or wanted it so bad). USAF still is getting a great deal and the KC-46A’s just dragged a squadron or two of F-35A to England.
And yes the F-35A and C was aerodynamically compromised by them having the same form as the lift fan in the F-35B right in the middle of them.
There is no way to mesh that into efficiency. It shows the power the USMC had, shoved their way in for a fighter that was not remotely suited to their mission.
Sans the F-35B, the F-35 range issues would not have been an issue. There is also a lot of structural related differences so it also adds cost and weight wise even to not have it in there on the internal frame.
While the V-22 was hugely costly, so is the CH-53 Super whatever it is, all thanks to USMC (well and congress going along with it)
The whole doctrine behind the V-22 is flawed and the USMC has changed its mind.
The only positive is having a lot of mini carriers and distributed air power though range is a huge issue with no answer.
A thought that occurred to me is this will likely be twin engine and if they use the same engine as the F35C that massively descopes your spares and development risk assuming a carrier is going to fly both 5th and 6th gen
See above. Have to do some engine sleuthing on power and weight.
Couple of google hits
F18 thrust GEF414 = 22000
F35 thrust F135 = 28000
B21 thrust PW9000 (A220/E195 core) = 27000
The biggest variance though might be to acknowledge auxillary power demand. That was one of the fatal flaws on the F35. Design requirements were for 15 kW of cooling. By the time Block 4 rolls around that is 47 kW with future concepts as high as 60 kW.
F18 and Navy 6th gen are going to be on two different planets for power needs. The Navy will be well served to contemplate an engine size that can power those needs in 25 years after EIS.
Not just thrust. As I understand it, the cooling is a bleed air system so it diverts from thrust. Ergo, more power from the F135 engine.
If there is an area that I can accept as a non forseen issue its the F35 cooling needs. Clearly they had growth built in, not enough to what they are adding needing it.
The F135 has been amazing. They have pushed it well past the design and it has been reliable. Its had some issues but overall its done fantastically.
The current limits are in the cooling system and flows themselves so there is work going on to deal with that.
A key factor is the engine weight. You might be better off with two GE x F15 engine (F120 or some such) rather than two P&W F135.
This is a good broad view of the setting and the general aspects. I don’t agree with all of it (they were talking about putting the adaptive engine into the F-35, so at least GE thinks ifs far enough along to try to get away with it).
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2025/03/boeings-ngad-f-47-fighter-is-aimed-right-at-china/
And does the USN go with the lease with the option to buy? ie, engine bays that can take the adaptive engine in a F/A-XX-B version? If you can put one (in theory) into an F-35A (B and C were questions) and not designed for it, with a bit of work you should be able to designed for an upgrade.
Spitfire were famous for the various Mks and engine upgrades. Most if not all other fighters saw hp changes and some different forms (FW-190/T/A-152)
Along the lines of what I have been reading across Defense and Pentagon news. The concepts have been flying since 2020. The Pentagon has a pretty good idea of what it can do. Most of the weaknesses would appear during these secret concept flights. They did not do this for the F35 and they should have..
“https://www.eurasiantimes.com/f-47-vs-f-35-u-s-promises-not-to-repeat-f-35-blunde/#:~:text=%E2%80%98Acquisition%20Malpractice%E2%80%99%20in,we%20did%20it.%E2%80%9D
“Most of the weaknesses would appear during these secret concept flights.”
You really think that serious weaknesses can’t be discovered after concept flights have completed?
*Just look at all the gremlins that have surfaced in the KC-46 in recent years — well after EIS.
*And the thrust link debacle in the 777X only manifested itself after 3000 hours of tests with multiple frames.
*Not to mention nacelle overheating and stall prevention issues in the MAX.
Dream on.
so what comes first test flight of the F47 or the first commercial delivery of the 777x?
Most of the KC-46A issues were shown up in development.
1. Wiring, ooops, review of drawing, big delay
2. Issues with using the fuselage as an antennae, check (what spec drove them to that?) – apparently it works but had its issues.
3. RVWS: showed up in tests
4. Boom issue: showed up in tests.
5. Contaminating the fuel system (not even off the ground yet).
777X issue showed up in test phase.
The USAF chose to ignore the F-35 range issues as well as a ridiculous spare parts backup.
Not like the A330MRT did not take 5 years we know of in Aussie work up to get its bugs out and it was not built to the same standards as the KC-46A (which did not have the boom fall off twice!)
MAX was an FAA failure and a Boeing hiding things and gross stupidity which knows no bounds
In my opinion the MAX story was criminal intent by Boeing.
It’s also a different story in case an add-on fails during testing or the aircraft itself fails after being delivered to a costumer.
So it take Airbus 5 years to get the bugs out? Did Australia ordered KC-46 instead? No. They ordered even more A330MRTT. The KC-46 was introduced in 2019. Do the math about debugging times.
I must admit, Airbus does not build aircraft to such low standards.
BTW when will Boeing be able to provide an automatic boom refueling system?
> Most of the weaknesses would appear during these secret concept flights.
You don’t even have an engine. Lol.
You got lots of engines. Maybe not the one you want yet, but engines, yes.
And you have a stand in at least size wise.
Engines are the least of the issues.
GE thinks they do have an engine. May be true and may not be, but its just gone into hot development (assuming its deemed better than P&W). j
Some argument to give it to GE as PW has the F-35 exclusive. F-15EX went with GE.
“Engines are the least of the issues.”
Then the world would be much simpler. GTF engines not working? No problem, put on the LEAP?? 😯
Deflection changes nothing.
Chinese used Russian engines and then put in a poor replacement. Now they have one that makes thrust needed (or so they say) though nothing has been proven on longevity. So you keep lots of extra engines, they did it in WWII.
A Merlin was good for 200 hours. Allison was better but 750 hours.
ME-262 engine good for 50 hours. But it was pilots and fuel that was the restriction, they had the engines and airframes.
Conflating GTF and LEAP issues with some proven engines that can fill in as need? Really?
P&W makes an F-15/16 class engine as does GE. P&W makes the F135. That is 3 engines you can use as a fill in. You assess the size of your projected engine and you use whatever fits inside of that.
P-51 moved from Allison to Merlin engines (long story but the Allison was better, but the AAC hamstrung it in not allowing Allison to develop multi stage Super Chargers. The reason the P-47 was so outstanding was a turbo-super charger setup.
Engineers find way to work around problems, its what we do.
TW
What’s your point? Why did you include propeller aircraft or WW II fighters?🤔
How are they relevant?
Engines, lots of engines and you can fit an an engine to anything.
Been done lots of times including jets
Lots of options short term and long term.
> “.. you can fit an an engine to anything.”
You’re not new here.
Why BA had to put MCAS in the MAX? The larger LEAP engine. Wake up.
Show me how to put a P&W engine on the MAX! Thank you.
The core upgrade on the F-135 engine seems to be the only option considering the F-35 B model. The adaptive engine retrofits for A & C model was probably a difficult choice due to non-commonality but it seems that maybe an F-35 D model with the adaptive engine would significantly help with range and be available considerably earlier than F-47. The F-135 engine has also been designed around the lift fan’s power requirements and is in its own way been optimized for that capability.
The view was that the GE adaptive engine would fit the F-35A. It would not fit the F-35B and despite GE insistence, it appears not to have been a fit for the F-35C.
Nothing I ever read said the F-135 was compromised for the lift fan. The higher power was a factor but that has proven to be needed both for cooling and the draggy airframe of all variants.
As the USN does not like the F-35, the only presence for an adaptive engine is the F-35A. That in turn breaks the supply chain and the decision has been made to increase F-135 power and cooling so that is a non starter.
In theory you could do an F-35A NEO after the adaptive engine has proven out in the F-47. I doubt it but its possible down the road.
I doubt you get much efficiency out of the drag laden F-35 airframe regardless.
I am not disagreeing with you as I said “optimized” for lift fan usage. The F135 engine has to be able to clutch in something like 25,000 + horsepower off the low pressure spool which is quite a trick to keep the mass flow / RPM synchronized between the low and high pressure spools without overheating the high temperature section. I just question the use of the F135 engine as it is for a new aircraft that doesn’t have a lift fan. It would seem plausible that a redesigned derived engine would make more sense.
Also I am in concordance with your general thoughts about the F-35 as the pilots would not have given it the name “Fat Amy” for no good reason.
I see what you are saying, not sure I agree with it.
The F-35B does have a sub variant of the F135 engine so there was some tuning for it.
But they run turbines in Turbo Prop, Power Generation, Ships power all the time. You just need the right gear reduction setup to let the engine work best at its speed and the output to be at the speed needed.
I have not read anything that says the F135 was compromised. It had to push a non maximized airframe though the air at super sonic speeds.
That was the early jets issue until they learned how to design around it. Coke bottle fuselage then, not sure all what they do now.
The F-35C (I believe) had to get a waiver from specs as it did not have the acceleration per the contract. Larger wings on the C.
But, the F-35 never was intended as a dog fighter.
As I think Casey noted, Singapore found that when allowed to use its systems, no none stealth aircraft (AKA F-15) can see it and they loose the engagements.
I have seen similar modeling for Europe. And a good explanation as t o why so many have bought it. You want them all working but if only half work, you are a massive capability above and beyond.
Most don’t get what modern missile combat is and referencing back to Vietnam is a mi sake. Even in that arena, missiles killed far more aircraft than guns did (air to air)
TW
I’m on good authority that physicists have a better grasp of missile and missile defense. Theyalso have to deal with numbers and formulas. I’d leave that area to the experts if I were you.
TW
FWIW the F-22 was also “shot down” by the Rafale!
@Pedro:
Do you run your view through any kind of logic filter? You comment all the time, maybe you should leave it to at least informed people.
Me?, I don’t leave it to experts. I keep myself informed though I am absolutely not remotely an expert.
My part of the world of informed citizens and what makes sense and what does not.
Unless you understand the background of what the F-35 is supposed to do, you can not assess the program. Ergo you should not be commenting as by your definition you have no basis to do so.
The reality is the F-35 program has serious flaws, but it as an entity, has incredible capabilities. That is why such a varied group of nations has purchased it. From the Finns to the Swiss who had all the options on the table.
The day of gun kills is over. Its all missiles now and you have to be able to target the missile into an area that it can self guide (unless you do a Fox 1 missile type then you need a lock all the way). Fox 2 missiles have decreased a lot as the spectrum is no longer ranges. If you need an Fox 2 type, you are in trouble.
One who can’t apply mathematics in their observations is not well-informed, though they frequently claim otherwise.
See whom those “informed” citizens elected to the White House.
Don’t forget the P-38 that used the Allison with a turbocharger / intercooler / radial blower configuration. My understanding is that Allison was not allowed to develop a better early blower because the P-38 didn’t need it due to the turbocharger and a lot of effort had been put into Merlin’s.
AgentJayZ on youtube had a whole episode about the very issue about being able to “selectively pull AN ADDITIONAL 25,000 PLUS horsepower” off of the low pressure spool and keep everything balanced. He didn’t know how it was done, an ex Rolls-Royce turbine engineer didn’t know how it is done. The applications you mentioned are significantly different as one designs around the individual components’ power requirements and things get balanced but with the F135 engine there is a significant variability with the power requirements of the low pressure spool (and significant additional bleed air) while a need to maintain adequate cooling air to the hot section. Considering that the F135 engine is running rather hot which is significantly increasing maintenance (which is one of the reasons for the core upgrade).
*** News of the day ***
Looks like BA’s backdoor attempt to evade justice has just made things spectacularly worse:
“Boeing Judge Sets June Criminal Trial Over 737 Max Crashes”
“(Bloomberg) — A federal judge in Texas ordered Boeing Co. to stand trial June 23 in a criminal case tied to two deadly crashes of its 737 Max aircraft, setting up a high-stakes public showdown in the planemaker’s long-running legal saga.”
“US District Judge Reed O’Connor announced the trial date in a Tuesday order without explanation. The move comes one day after the Wall Street Journal reported Boeing was seeking leniency from the US Justice Department, which has been in talks with the company on revisions to an earlier plea deal that was rejected by O’Connor in December.
“The move marks a stunning turnaround in the push to determine Boeing’s culpability. The judge had granted Boeing and government lawyers several extensions to facilitate negotiations on a new deal, and a status report was due April 11. In his order Tuesday, O’Connor vacated that deadline and directed the parties to proceed to trial.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-judge-sets-june-23-200215509.html
And you think the DOJ under Bondi will give this any effort at all?
😂😂😂
US courts aren’t controlled by the DOJ: you’re confusing public prosecutors and judges.
The courts fall under the Judicial Branch of government. Judges are appointed for life — they can’t be fired by the administration of the day.
Boeing is going to trial — whether it likes it or not.
Hate to burst you bubble, but you clearly do not get US Government and its various aspects (quite fairly I don;t get NL either)
There are three branches of Government. Courts being one, but that is the judges.
The Executive (aka President) is the other player in this case and DOJ falls directly under the Executive. Once you capture DOJ (sound familair, aka FAA capoture?) then its whatever the Executive decides.
Now you will throw up all sorts of things like, DOJ is separate, that is what we call a tradition. In fact, DOJ was headed by Kennedy’s brother back in John F day. Independent DOJ is a more recent concept (just like the FBI was Hoovers toy and krudgel back in his day).
The reality is without penalties, our laws are a joke. And there are no laws even on the books that addresses what the Judge is calling for. He can require a trial, he can’t require DOJ to give it any effort. They could even say we were ordered to do this, we don’t agree with it.
What the DOJ addresses is supposedly broad direction of ht Executive. You can go after organized crime, bribed officials, but alwyas no matter what the jurisidcion, its up to the government (including state courts) what laws are enforced. No one enforces Jay Walking.
Now, people can SUE. You then have to prove you have been harmed. But the cases has been settled lawsuit wise.
So, no, there will be no prosecution, and regardless, the laws are made for and by the rich, there is no justice for the rich.
Epstein would have been the closest and he only got locked up, he committed suicide. Life in prison with Bubba his cell mate was the best that was going to happen, and he escaped that.
But it has to rise to that level before they even get charged and as we have seen with the OA, deferr, delay and you never face consequences.
Its the way the system works.
You mean like any third world banana republic?
Should be a great getaway weekend for VP and his wife at the Greenland Pituffik Space Base
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F960Dw-Bzdc
Should Musk be asking how much this getaway weekend is costing the US taxpapers?
Oops
> The Pentagon typically uses a cost-plus model for development and transitions to fixed-price deals once production of a weapon system begins, though even that approach can result in huge losses for contractors on programs like the B-21 stealth bomber, built by Northrop Grumman.
Strange that the BA stonk hasn’t moved much in like 30 days
Air Force Picked Boeing for NGAD Based on ‘Best Overall Value.’ Here’s What It Means
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/air-force-boeing-ngad-best-overall-value/
“…best overall value…”
You forgot the qualifier “on paper” 😅
Didn’t the air force also pick the KC-46A for “best overall value”?? Otherwise, what’s the evaluation about? “Kickbacks?
Every airline buys according to their “best overall value” assessment.
@Pedro
You can make a very strong argument that the USAF did get a good deal. It is Boeing that is eating all of this COPQ, not the taxpayer.
A better execution would have a different result, fewer headaches for both the USAF and BDS.
Absolutely Pedro…you can throw AF1 into that list as well.
One of the biggest risks coming to Boeing is going to be finding the number of engineers with the necessary clearance to work on the F47. It is not simply a matter of moving resources over from commercial programs.
AF1 was a result of Calhoun trying to cozy up to the OAO.
Dumb. You will notice that SN got the Looking Glass Contract. Boeing would not bid on it. Another low rate huge risk. So we get to see if SN does any better.
Its worth noting that amidst the noise, a tanker pilot was clear, there are always fueling issues no matter which bird. Our job is to mitigate those and get the mission done.
KC-46A does other aspect a lot better than KC-135R (as does the Airbus A330MRT).
If you need gas, you don’t care about the hullabaloo, you are happy to see ANY tanker.
Isn’t this the same criteria Boeing raised objections against in their contested tanker deal against Airbus when Airbus was awarded the contract on “best overall value” because of A330 having larger fuel load etc.?
false equivalence.
Each contract has its own unique nature and you have not only fixed price as a major type, but within that you can have all sorts of carve outs. Cost plus is the same, all sorts of caveats you can put in. Performance awards for exceeding.
On the KC-X what the USAF did was violate the contract that had been written. It was a fixed price with no adders for more capability (a good example would be asking the T-7A to do Mach 2.5. As a trainer, it has no relevance. In fact you wind up with huge costs for no return. You can do it, makes no sense.
The USAF gave Airbus adders for stuff not in the contract, that is a contract violation. If it was written in and allowed, then they could have done it. It was not.
You can argue KC-46A vs A3330MRT all day long, but the basis of the KC-X contract was to replace KC-135 on a 1 to 1 basis. That also meant fuel carry.
So, nothing is made like the KC-135. What was the nearest equivalent? 767.
Boeing got no credit for it having more gas either, but that was mute.
That also gets into parking space and hangars as well as fuel efficiency flying the missions. All that gas and weight of a larger A330MRT has a huge impact on that.
The USAF also waived the parking space distancing requirements. That also was not in the contract (RFC). Again a violation though they could have written that in and it would not have been.
All those aspects had been cussed and discussed and what was released applied equally to both. More cargo? Not part of the RFP.
There were some adders in the T-7A contract. You then weight the cost of meeting those adders vs your bid. As I recall maneuvering was one.
If you look, the listed speed of the T-7A is Mach 1.01. That was the spec, better than Mach 1. No bonus for more past that (if you look at the thrust and weight , its probably Mach 1.5 capable). Boeing has an eye on Light Fighters as well as adversarial air contracts. They deemed it did not cause a penalty to do that (or a miner enough one as to not be an issue)
The USAF lately decided they wanted more range out of the T-7A. It has the capability but needs some changes. USAF is paying for that as well. Leaving space can be done but a larger capacity than spec costs more. Ergo, Boeing had that planned out for other applications or figured the USAF would be back to change it.
I did machinery supply and install bids. We were given criteria by the company as to what weight various aspects got on a percentage basis.
Cost as I recall was only 30 or 40%. Company performance on other contracts was a big one. So was experience in that type of install. How well their proposal matched the submital for the work.
So they do those calcs as well and risk calcs. Willing to risk more, then you can weight risk less even if it is likely to be more.
@TW
Replacing the KC-135 was the first procurement error the USAF forced to make. Most time the KC-X was thought to do cargo missions. Just read what the USAF was out to buy: a cargo aircraft that can also refuel.
The whole effort especially the second RFP was a scam. Calculations for fuel burn estimated more than 7 touch&go maneuvers on every flight a KC-X would ever make. Simulators were also part of the RFP.
The Generals ordered the best aircraft for the mission in first place. Years later they received the KC-46 lemon.
..and the KC-46, after all these years, still does not work..
F-47s possible effect on stealth tanker program.
https://www.twz.com/air/f-47-fighter-reveal-draws-new-attention-to-usaf-stealth-tanker-plans
Read it.. a lot of words, all sizzles.
@Pete
Boeing relied on Dassault for the X-32 because with the Rafale they had experience designing a fighter that was also suitable for aircraft carrier operations as was required under the JSF programme. Boeing also relied on Dassault for the X-37 aerodynamic studies when the USAF wanted to upgrade its OTV space plane.
Dassault was also involved with NASA’s X-38 CRV.
I would like to see that link.
Boeing has been making the F/A-18 for a long time. Why would they need Dessault for that?
The JSF programme was launched in 1993 and Boeing acquired McDonnell Douglas in 1997.
The down select from the three competitors to the two competitiors occurred in November of 1996. The announce of the merger between Boeing and McDonnell Douglas (MCD) was announced several weeks later in December of 1996. The first wave of engineers from MCD arrived in Seattle in February of 1997.
The collaboration between Boeing and Dassault on the design of the X-32 could have been initiated anytime between 1993 and 1997. I remember reading about it in Aviation Week around that time and I am now trying to retrieve that information. In the meantime I have found on a Google search something which is indirectly related to what I am saying, but does not confirm nor deny it:
« Dassault Systèmes provided Boeing with its V5 architecture to integrate design, build, and support processes for the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program, including the Boeing X-32, through a contract signed in 2000. »
But this is not what I remember reading about in Aviation Week, and it was most likely before 2000 since the discussion, as I remember it, was about the Dassault expertise on a multirole combat aircraft acquired with the design of the Rafale.
I have also found another unrelated document regarding Dassault cooperation with NASA on the X-38 CRV. It is about a CFD analysis of the X-38 in subsonic flight regime and was written by Dassault engineers. The paper can be found here:
https://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/2002ESASP.487..109T
Normand:
Not something I had ever heard of and just does not sound correct.
Dassault did build the software for CAD design Boeing used or still uses but that is a different kettle of bits.
One of the ongoing issues has been a reported problem with French industrial espionage into US systems.
Don’t get me wrong, I can’t believe it is not a two way street.
The logic is missing as well, Dasault never had anything to do with stealth or space craft.
I do know Boeing bailed out NG on the B-2, sounded odd at the time but they had some experience in laying composites and NG was having a problem.
Boeing and LM collaborate on the ULA and Patriot warheads and probably cross links into most of the Ratheon etc. But all within US (BAE has a major US presence so would be considered part of that world)
Dassault Systems made CATIA and that was program was most definetly used in the development of the X-32. The ability to do fly-throughs of the design as it was being developed was extremely valuable and also cutting edge at that time. Dassault was likely listed as a “One Team” partner at the time for their contribution of the CATIA (and Enovia) software used to do the physical design.
RE Dassault (CATIA ) and its use by boeing and ….
From my experience and memory having worked on B2 and 777
During the B2 program Northrup CAD/CAM derived from an earlier Lockheed Computer aided design was used initially atg Boeing. But we also used CATIA for some things, and many many ‘ drawings ‘ were later converted between the systems towards CATIA.
The 777 program in the early 90’s used mainly CATIA – thereby eliminating a mockup- and allowing-flythru. IBM had a major facility east of redmond which supported a lot of Boeing computer systems in Renton and Everett including 777 .
Since I left in 1995 – I have NO direct knowledge of what was used on later
programs like 737 NG, 737 Max, 777** and 7late7 but I am fairly sure it was and has been CATIA. Yes there were a few ‘ desktop’ programs like Autocad used- but not for major design issues.
So ‘ Dassault” has long been a player at Boeing and probably other..
NOC looks nice, up >$26 over last five days
> “According to Danish outlet TV2, American officials were literally going door-to-door in Nuuk, Greenland, trying to rally support for a visit from Usha Vance, wife of VP J.D. Vance.
Locals? Not having it. The response was a resounding “No, thanks,” Steinmetz reports.
Result? The whole trip got scrapped. No photo ops. No dogsled diplomacy.
Just awkward silence and canceled plans.
https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1905263294706770203
Reality check
Excerpt from Kill Chain: The Rise of the High-Tech Assassins
> Rex Rivolo, the fighter pilot … was assigned to fly escort on the first raid, December 18, 1972.
“’I wasn’t worried,’ he told me years later. ‘We were briefed that the B-52s would be using their most secret ‘war mode’ electronic countermeasures, previously reserved for WWIII with the Soviets, that would easily blind the Vietnamese SAM missiles. I knew the countermeasures in my plane didn’t work, but I believed the B-52s had secret, magic stuff that would make them invulnerable. So I thought everything would be OK. That was until three SAMs flew right by me and hit a B-52 high above. The magic boxes didn’t work’.
Rivolo watched in amazement as the giant plane cracked open ‘like an egg’ and slowly turned over. Burning jet fuel streamed out in a wave that split into two and then four in vast cascading sheets of flame. ‘The sky,’ he told me, recalling the vivid scene in every detail after forty years, ‘was raining fire’. Fourteen more B-52s were to go down before the raids were called off eleven days later. By that time, Rivolo’s previously unquestioning faith in the promises of the technologists had disappeared forever. ‘I had really believed all that hype,’ he told me. ‘And then I realized it was all bullshit. None of it worked’. …”
Just like so-called “stealth”…
CNBC: If China-built freight ship fines hit, ‘we’re out of business in U.S.,’ ocean carrier says
Ryanair CEO Says Boeing Executive Downplayed Aircraft Tariff Threat
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2025-03-27/ryanair-ceo-says-boeing-offers-backup-if-max-10-not-approved-soon
“Speaking later to a conference hosted by the A4E European airline industry association, he said: “I met with Boeing and they don’t believe there will be tariffs on aircraft or parts”.”
* “…aircraft or parts” — no mention of materials…which, of course, are already subject to 25% tariff (aluminium and steel).
* Also, what about foreign tariffs on BA aircraft? Various countries (e.g. China) are being threatened with blanket tariffs, and will likely reciprocate in kind…which will thus impact US planes.
* Next up: shipping fees. If they go ahead, there’ll be no Leonardo 787 parts crossing the Atlantic, because it won’t be economically viable for carriers…see @Pedro’s shipping link above.
Looks like BA is sticking its head in the sand (yet again).
Bloomberg Opinion: Trump’s 25% Tariff Hands the Car Industry Keys to China
> “Ill-considered trade restrictions have a nasty habit of coming back to bite their instigators. Trump’s March 2018 tariffs on steel and aluminum were costing the US $4.6 billion a month in higher costs and tax losses by the end of the year they were introduced. Former President Barack Obama’s 2012 levies on Chinese solar panel manufacturers sparked a retaliation that killed off US production of solar polysilicon, a crucial raw material that American companies had once dominated. We’re about to see that scenario play out again.”
“China has more than 100 factories with a combined capacity to build close to 40 million internal combustion engine cars a year” source NY Times”
“In 2023, China produced almost as many cars (26.12 million units) as the other top ten producing countries combined (27.93 million units).”
The writer set his eyes in the not too distant future:
“If you had a vision of the future where the global car industry wasn’t dominated by China, you can kiss those dreams goodbye.
That’s because President Donald Trump’s promised 25% tariff on auto imports, announced late Wednesday Washington time, takes an ax to the only bits of the emerging electric vehicle supply chain that aren’t already dominated by Beijing.
The biggest losers when the levies take effect next week will be Japan and South Korea. They account for a third of the cars imported into the US, and as much as two-thirds of those imported from outside North America. (Mexico and Canada, while still swept up in the tariffs, will be partially exempt.)”
Like Obama’s solar panel tariffs which resulted in US solar polysilicon producers being wiped out, America is tempting its fate again. No doubt such acts are supported by President wannabes on the couch.
Airbus CEO says potential U.S.-Europe tariffs risk hurting Boeing
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2025/03/24/airbus-ceo-says-potential-us-europe-tariffs-risk-hurting-boeing/
no problem…buy Chinese
“Airbus, Boeing, or Beijing? Ryanair CEO Will Buy China’s C919 ‘If It’s Cheap Enough'”
> “Wow. NTSB Chair Jennifer Homendy just said divers are *still* descending into the Potomac River—now 57 days after the DCA midair collision—to recover wreckage and personal effects.”
https://x.com/petemuntean/status/1905267922966110589
“On March 27, 2025, Republican Senators introduced legislation to replace the TSA with privatized security solutions.”
https://x.com/airwaysmagazine/status/1905539606751133819
Reflections Of The F-47: Looking Back At The X-36
https://www.twz.com/air/reflections-of-the-f-47-looking-back-at-the-x-36
This is interesting:
How much will the F-47 cost (for one aircraft)?
100 – 200m
200 – 300m
300 – 400m
400 – 500m
More than 500m?
Certainly at least 300m…and probably more than 500m.
Why?
– Projections are far too rosy.
– Everything that can go wrong will go wrong (this is BA, after all).
– Elevated inflation for years to come — for fiscal, macroeconomic and geopolitical reasons.
Define cost!
Projected hand waving cost.
Projected cost.
Incremental cost.
Real incremental cost + development.
Real incremental cost + development + maintenance.
Final TOTAL lifetime cost per unit with total military overhead for total program with inflation adjustment.
At what price BA can sell to a foreign buyer (assuming it’s possible)?
So Boeing wins a giant program that’s cost plus. Sounds like a slam dunk success…..they will really have to think out of the box to find a way to screw this up.
Of course, the first step should be to staff up engineering entirely with 22 year olds straight out of college with zero experience.
In reality there are engineers at LM that need work!
Can Boeing do it? I do not know. But, WWII was done on guys who had not done what they did.
Structured right with experienced engineers and the new guys learn and one thing I found out, new guys have different takes and often had a germ of an idea that did work though not always in the form it was presented in originals. You get the decision guys to thinking and its, yes we can do it.
Wisdom on the MAX was Boeing could not do the -10 due to no ground clearance, They worked around that. Better to have clearance? Yep. Did they work around it? Yep.
I worked on a problem for 25 years. In the end I came up with a brilliant solution. Low cost and elegant in the approach.
I had managers who had tried to find a fix for that same time period as it was a chronic issue. They got notified first there was a problem. These were work level managers so they understood the problem and why it was not able to be solved.
Am I brilliant? No. Did I have some real eye opener ideas? Yea, maybe 4 over 50 years of work. In this case I had to detach my mind as we were literally boxed in and, we just have to gut the parts and add on a pre built box.
We had controls people and sheet-metal guys look at the same issue, I was the one that had to fix them when they failed (75 so there was always one failing).
I was on the incentive plan, I had to do the work.
But I had that same manager ask question and while not the answer, it got me to thinking in different directions and sometimes it was, no, that won’t work, but this will.
Flight bookings between Canada and the U.S. plunge amid Trump’s trade war
“Demand, measured by passenger bookings on flights between Canada and the U.S., has “collapsed,” falling 70% compared to the same period last year, according to a March 26 report from OAG aviation, a flight analytics company.”
it starts with Canada and then rest of the world. I guess US airlines will not those A350 widebodies after all (especially after April 2 tariffs)
Related:
“Economic turbulence shakes US airlines as travel demand falters”
“With travel a discretionary item for many consumers and businesses, growing odds of weak economic growth and high inflation have clouded the outlook for the remainder of the year…”
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/economic-turbulence-shakes-us-airlines-travel-demand-falters-2025-03-27/
And here in Europe, several countries have negative travel advisories for the US. That’s soon going to have a noticable effect on Transatlantic air traffic.
As OLeary said, this is a nasty (not exact words) business and sooner or latter there is a crisis and then we buy.
Airbus may have to ramp down
“Airbus may have to ramp down”
Why?
There’s a whole world outside the US for Airbus to supply.
Boeing is going to be the one with the biggest headache when the whole world cuts back trade with the US.
Interesting Quote
“Udvar-Hazy said he did not believe the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration or the European Union Aviation Safety Agency would approve the C919 for commercial flying in its current form, casting doubt on its appeal among Western carriers.”
“Comac C919 is approaching EASA certification”
“According to the South China Morning Post, the EU regulator gave positive feedback after a visit in July, which included, among other things, testing of the C919 aircraft’s Level D flight simulator. The mentioned visit is part of EASA’s certification process in which compliance with the strict certification requirements is demonstrated, which aims to determine whether all necessary parts of the aircraft comply with the regulatory requirements.”
https://avioradar.net/en/comac-c919-is-approaching-easa-certification/
—
COMAC doesn’t care about FAA cert — it doesn’t need it. In the markets in which COMAC wants to sell, the FAA is irrelevant.
+1
Heh.
so true
by the way, which country first grounded the Max (not FAA or EASA country)
That is interesting. Granted China does not care, but a lot of countries require Internationally Recognized Certification. China is not one of them that is.
It won’t be long before FAA cert is no longer “internationally recognized”.
The EASA has already had to babysit the FAA vis-à-vis the MAX and the 777X.
DOGE cuts will erode the FAA’s remaining reputation even further.
but they do care
“The Y-12 family is the only line of Chinese-manufactured commercial passenger aircraft to have received type certification from the FAA, with the Y-12 (IV) certified in 1995, the Y-12E in 2006, and the Y-12F in 2016”
“The Y-12F also received CAAC (China Civil Aviation Administration) type certification on December 10, 2015, and EASA (European Union Aviation Safety Agency) type certification on July 13, 2023”
@ David Pritchard
Well, China *used* to care.
1995-2016 is a long time ago, and the Chinese have since learned that it’s not possible to do normal business with the US.
The rest of the world is currently drawing the same conclusion.
Related:
“Lao Airlines to start operating a C909 jet as China’s COMAC expands internationally”
https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news/section/3/230850/Lao-Airlines-to-start-operating-a-C909-jet-as-China's-COMAC-expands-internationally
So, 6 countries outside China have now opened up to the C909…and they couldn’t give a hoot about lack of FAA/EASA cert.
True. Laos is truly one of the great aviation users in the world.
Along with such giants as Miramar and Zimbabwe!
Who is next? Netherlands? Ooops, IC needed.
It doesn’t matter how “great” a country is — Laos get nearly 5 million tourists each year…and most of them come in by plane.
How many tourists will the US get next year, one wonders? 🤔
One country, one airline at a time. COMAC has the patience, its executives don’t have to pretend there’s gold at the end of the rainbow to hype its stock – $10b FCF 2025-2026-ish-and rush production. BA CFO has to fret at each quarter-end. Which company would have a better rate of success?
* For Boeing, juggling cash flow often means “another ‘Houdini moment’”
Who knows? May be the third world has a better understanding of how great the aircraft “designed by clowns, supervised by monkeys” are.
Lao Airlines becomes the second overseas customer of the COMAC C909. Delivery on Sunday!
Newsflash….UH doesn’t need to worry about it
“Aviation legend Steven Udvar-Hazy plans to retire as Executive Chairman of Air Lease Corporation on May 2, 2025”
> “I do not believe *at this point in time* that the FAA and the AASA would certify the 919 and its current state for export,”
Trump imposes 25% tariffs on auto. JD is in Greenland. Time? It’s 2025!
>> VDL said last month “how we manage [ties with China] will be a determining factor for our future economic prosperity and national security”
They can make Europe great again if they want. Don’t they want more friends?
https://x.com/kimmonismus/status/1905741607103824336
Well then we have this. It makes you want to cry
https://www.flightglobal.com/safety/counter-drone-testing-interfered-with-commercial-flights-at-reagan-national/162384.article
a bit off topic but interesting
“Four Tesla Dealers Said They Sold 8,653 Cars in 3 Days in Canada. Did They?
The sales numbers provided by the company-owned shops allowed them to claim tens of millions in government rebates. Now those numbers are under scrutiny.
Yet somehow, four Tesla- owned dealerships reported to the Canadian government that they sold an astonishing 8,653 cars during a single weekend in January — enough to qualify for 43 million Canadian dollars’ (about $30 million) worth of government subsidies under a program just before it expired.”
Major F-47 Revelations Were Just Dropped By Former Air Force Secretary
We now have a fuller picture of how the Air Force arrived at the F-47, and the potential for future next-generation fighter “increments.”
https://www.twz.com/air/f-47-revelations-were-just-dropped-by-former-air-force-secretary
From the comments in that link:
“So what Kendall is saying is that all so-called X planes flying 5 years ago for hundreds of hours are simply tech demonstrators like X-36, not representing an actual fighter, while the design of F-47 is still not decided, only existing as two rendered PNG files? And that is what Trump and the USAF call “world’s first 6 gen fighter”?😂”
—
Further, quoting ftom the link (emphasis added):
“Kendall said that *completing the research and development phase* of the program will take at least another $20 billion, a figure he has publicly given in the past.”
So, the R&D phase isn’t even complete yet.
—
“Kendall said he had been willing to trade the NGAD combat jet for investments in new counter-space capabilities and improved base defenses.”
Sounds like a very shaky commitment to me…
How the mighty has fallen. Both the POTUS and the SecAF had to act like snake oil salesmen. Now we know which one is actually the first, or second.
@Williams:
He really does not give any background.
Good info would be what engines it flew with. This could well be a need for starter engines to do flight tests while probably the GE engine is refined.
China did it with their fighters. Its a good way to work into interim capability.
Other jets have started with one engine and shifted to another as the first one did not pan out.
TWZ has a better background on the program showing the various predecessors.
https://www.twz.com/air/reflections-of-the-f-47-looking-back-at-the-x-36
The Bird of Prey looks to be the basis for a lot of it.
I was struck by the listed stability issue with Canards. Those aircraft are all unstable now, the computers keep them flying right.
Canard stability aspect should be no different than the rest being deliberately unstable (who would have ever thought that was desirable?)
It has affect on stealth but I can see them only needing and or using the canards when needed and in cruise and sneak, keep them stowed in neutral.
To me its a lot like Carrier Auto Land (Magic Carpet I think it is). You got it, use it. You waste a lot of talent on one aspect of flight when what you want is a person in the cockpit that manages a fight best.
> From Rogoway’s latest article, an NGAD prototype didn’t fly, only demonstrators. Moreover, cold water on the idea of an export version.
https://x.com/snekotron/status/1905997765240406292
See also my post today above.
“Moreover, cold water on the idea of an export version.”
Who’d possibly want to buy it outside the US?
“All our products come standard with a kill switch, which enslaves you to our will.
“Also standard: runaway costs, endless list of shortcomings, litany of delayed software updates.
“Any takers?” 👀
The truth is out there.
Kendall: In some ways, BA needed to win this one more than LH did.
That is true and its a balance though I suspect you mean LM.
LM can not deal with its F-35 obligations, you don’t need them even worse performing.
Boeing needed the win, but the national defense balance and keeping viable entities was why they did.
Some feel we are over consolidated. I don’t agree, it would be nice to have more available, but you can only keep so many programs going. Chance Vought is Gone, Rockwell is Gone, North American (P-51) is gone. As programs get bigger and lower production, it takes a large company to even keep bidding. Boeing has had no fighters or high production of anything military since the B-52.
Airbus and Boeing are the last to LCA standing for a reason. Lockheed decided to get out, MD ran themselves into the ground though enough money to buy out Boeing. Convair did not succeed though they had a 707 like offering (featured in the Movie version of Fate is the Hunter)
@Pedro
The one thing that popped into view with me is that one of the main reason to kick off NGAD was to maintain the ability to make new fighter aircraft designs. The US is a victim of its own success…this country is 2 generations removed from competitive air combat. We make new submarines for the simple reality that if we do not, we will lose that ability in the future…whether we need any today or not.
Was NGAD decided by demonstrators? Yes. Does it matter. Maybe. The B2 was a concept of the Germans from WW2.
DARPA has a had a long time to bring to maturity the F47 technologies. They are not even offering the most cutting edge technologies. Demonstrators allow the USAF to singularly evaluate many alternatives of certain technologies without fundmanetally designing a new aircraft every time. It depends where you perceive technical risk. The greatest risk I see is the expectation that these AI-driven UAV are going to live up to the hype. Some of the biggest F35 problems have to do with programming and the helmet. Most of the 6th gen enhancements have more to do with computational abilities than flight control surfaces and propulsion. Also throw in the expectation of hypersonic munitions and energy-directed weapons.
Does the F47 have an export? The better question is do our allies commit to buying anything that is an upgrade over 4th gen? There was a small amount of international interest for the F22…namingly Australia and Israel. Most countries will balk at the price. I can see Japan being highly interested. As far as kill switches goes…if such a thing actually exists…you would never tell that country that it exists unless and until you had to. Cutting off spare parts and munitions has a fairly immediated effect, too.
“…the main reason to kick off NGAD was to maintain the ability to make new fighter aircraft designs. ”
The US has already lost that ability; the F35 — its most recent fighter — is a monumental failure.
Neither you nor I know the full capabilities of the US to produce a fighter aircraft. As pointed out earlier, the F35 was a poor compromise in bid parameters.
As it relates specifically to the F35, we will have to disagree on that one. It really depends on how you define “fail” objectively. The more accurate statement is that the aircraft has a rather empty track record. For that matter so does the F22. That aircraft has only ever shot down a ballon in air combat.
There is failure in ability (e.g., the aircraft is shot down by the enemy). To date that has not happened…not by proven record but for “lack of record.” Last time I checked Iran had its SAMs wiped out. Then there is poor program execution. If you want to point the finger then it had better start with the US government for a multitude of reasons. My best is analogy is asking how NASA fares developing craft versus SpaceX.
May be relevant in discussion of the F-35
“A must-read. Yet another instance in which the non-public military accident investigations uncover troubling technical problems and the public report just blames the pilot.”
https://bsky.app/profile/elanhead.com/post/3llmctcvxys2w
@ Casey
The F-35 doesn’t have to have a combat record for us to know that it has disappointing/inadequate range, speed, payload and maneuverability.
It’s operational readiness is also very inadequate at just 48%.
This is in addition to a whole list of operational limitations, e.g. non-usability near lightning, unusable gun, software glitches, etc.
And its so-called “stealth” has been nixed by recent developments in long-wavelength radar, passive radar, and hybrid radar.
—
How do you conclude that “Iran lost all its SAMs”?
Various satellite-based analyses that I’ve read indicate that Iran lost just one radar installation — which was replaced the next day. It also lost 3-4 buildings in which solid fuel was prepared, and 4 persons were killed.
Shortly after the attack, Iran unveiled its new Zoubin missile defense system, which it’s deploying in addition to its Bavar, S-300 and S-400 MDS.
That doesn’t sound like a “loss of all SAMs” to me 🤔
https://www.cfmaeroengines.com/bulletin-article/story-building-the-heart-of-c919-aircraft-from-0-to-1/
Not sure if others have posted before
Good stuff. Thanks for the link.
Funny we shoot ourselves in the foot helping out a Country the F-47 is intended to subdue worst comes to worst and best outcome convinced it will do so and not start claiming the Easter Pacific as the Extended Chinese ocean.
If I was president on a national security basis, I would cancel the delivery of all items for the C919 (40% to 70%).
China has declared its intentions and regardless of what Pedro/Abalone nee Bryce think, its in non of our interests to enable China. It never was but business only look to the money end. What started out as a counter to the Soviet Union has back fired spectacularly.
“…not start claiming the Easter Pacific as the Extended Chinese ocean…”
Remind us, who’s currently claiming Canada, Greenland and Panama…and siding with Russia and North Korea at the UN?
China is the least of our worries.
—
And who says there’s any US content left in the C919 — barring the engines, which will be replaced soon by the CJ-1000A?
Everyone is now removing US content, in a major de-risking shift.
“…not start claiming the Easter Pacific as the Extended Chinese ocean…”
I’ve never heard a country claimed “the Easter Pacific as the Extended Chinese ocean…”, which country is it?
Remind me which country has 700 overseas military bases.
Remind me why the USAF considers the range of F-47 is so important? So the F-47 has to fly great distance to attack another sovereign country? Who is threatening whom here?
so cancel US content for the C919? hmmm….so China will develop their own subsystems and engines… they do have the technological capability
As for China technology development…
“China’s lunar exploration program, featuring the Chang’e missions, includes landers and rovers, with the Chang’e-6 mission landing on the far side of the moon”
“China’s space station, officially named Tiangong (meaning “Heavenly Palace”), is a modular, permanently crewed space station in low Earth orbit, designed for scientific experiments and technological innovation”
China’s J-36 6th-Gen Fighter: Leaked Info From Its Latest Flight
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjAxazDZC8g
The US may delay C919 production with new export restrictions , but the Chinese government only will double their resources to replace US content.
No Comac C919 parts from the US, Boeing can kiss their current orders goodbye and will never get any new ones from China. Also, China can just completing cut the US off from China’s rare minerals
How good is Donnie playing “chicken”?
You (and @Pedro) will be able to grasp the monumental significance of this development:
“On March 17, 2025, the People’s Bank of China revealed that “the cross-border settlement system for China’s digital currency (the digital yuan) would be fully interconnected with the ten countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and six countries in the Middle East, meaning that 38% of global trade volume would bypass the US dollar-dominated SWIFT system and enter a “digital yuan moment.” The Economist has described this financial confrontation as “Bretton Woods 2.0,” as China rewrites the fundamental code of the global economy using blockchain technology.”
“Unlike SWIFT, where transactions take between 3 and 5 days and involve multiple intermediaries, China’s digital currency is set to bridge and slashes processing times to merely few seconds. A pilot project between Hong Kong and Abu Dhabi saw a payment settle in just about seven seconds, with fees dropping by 98%. The system’s speed and transparency are forcing a reevaluation of dollar-dependent frameworks, particularly in emerging markets.”
https://www.alsafanews.com/article/18591-the-world-vs-the-usa–brics-dedollarization-and-the-digital-yuan
https://www.proshare.co/articles/digital-yuan-the-new-era-of-cross-border-payments-in-global-trade
@DP:
China can and do anything it wants and does.
Why should we help them?.
I love hearing “if I was the president” from those sitting on the coach. Even for me in the eastern time zone, it’s too early for dreams.
Oh you know potential breakthroughs across multiple SME categories at SEMICON China from a company that doesn’t have its own Wikipedia page, highly profitable American companies are going to lose their market in China, fewer high-paying manufacturing jobs!
https://x.com/alvarbytheby/status/1904852780675629489
> “Globalisation was an American project, from which American businesses profited handsomely, until technological &industrial developments threatened to undermine US state power…At that point, the American state changed the rules, joining the revisionists”
https://x.com/70sBachchan/status/1850929908442153179
LRB: Great Power Politics
@TW
You set export restrictions on the things that really matter. Turbine technogolgies, materials science, computational ability…trades secrets kind of stuff. The fact remains that so long as two countries remain fundamentally intertwined economically the likelihood of a war diminishes. The US and China need each other and we are all safer for that co-dependence. The US does not need to enact an export ban to hurt China. You can cancel their debt and do the same thing.
“You can cancel their debt and do the same thing.”
What do mean by “cancel their debt”? You mean not pay back what the US owes them?
Any country can sell treasuries and bonds on the secondary market — as China and other countries are already doing — so risk can be offloaded pretty quickly. We don’t yet have the figures for Feb and Mar, but you can be sure that there was/is heavy selling, because something is currently putting upward pressure on yields.
Apart ftom that, what kind of message do you think it would send if the US starts defaulting on debt? The US will lose access to lenders, and the dollar will be (further) dumped as a reserve. Do you really think that’s a good idea?
TW was proposing national security measures of export bans. That is functionally declaring economic war. My suggestion is merely an academic exercise to illustrate there are very simple ways to effect the same end.
China devalues their currency by holding treasury reserves. Yes there is a secondary market, but it is a simple matter to evaluate which bonds are presently held by China and refuse repayment. I understand clearly that is a very serious move you do not take lightly and without a very good reason. Putin found that out the hard way.
There are many ways to project power; China’s reliance on the US to buy its products is mutually assured destruction on both sides.
Central banks are fretting rn. Guess who are the biggest buyers of Au?
There are actions, and there’re reactions.
This year’s deficit is at least 8$% of the GDP, unheard of when the economy is not in a recession. How will next year look like? Next each of you are going to be forced to buy treasury bills: the century bond without interest.
What would happen when buyers and sellers stop accepting USD? It’s just a piece of paper.
@Pedro
The simple answer is that a wholesale US default vs a targeted default brings the whole world down. The world got addicted to US debt because it was as safe a way to park your money and sell your goods as there was. A US default is no different than any other default. At a certain point, people need to start looking at the fundamentals of the US to actually repay…and that will translate in higher rates which will begin to bring down the dollar. There goes your best customer and that brings everyone down. I severely doubt that US taxpayers will be forced to buy US treasuries. That would be the last mistake any politician running for election will ever make. This is a country that is likely to enact “tax cuts” this year.
Yes US money is just paper. And gold is just a metal. And crypto is neither of those. I completely agree with anyone who comes to the conclusion that the budget deficit is untenable. It is the net result of a government that outgrew its ability or desire to pay for itself.
@ Casey
Defaulting on any debt payment to any country will automatically trigger an SD credit rating. Since this is below investment grade, institutional investors will be compelled by their corporate statutes to dump all US debt in their holdings. Not the scenario you envisaged, I’m guessing.
Did you know, by the way, that almost 80% of US debt is held by US institutions/individuals? Only about 21% is held internationally, and — of that — only about half is held by central banks? Mass dumping of US treasuries by foreign holders has been going on for some time now, and will have accelerated since Jan 20. So, this is becoming less and less of a foreign problem.
Trump may want to think carefully before defaulting on anyone…
Comac C949: China unveils quiet supersonic jet with 50% longer range than Concorde
“The first details of C949, a supersonic airliner project, have been quietly unveiled by Chinese state-owned aerospace giant Comac, signaling its ambitions to dominate the skies with the radical new jet that could redefine global air travel.
In a recent academic paper, Comac engineers revealed the blueprint of a 1.6-Mach airliner designed to fly further and much more quietly than the retired Concorde – a feat that could position China at the forefront of a 21st century supersonic renaissance.”
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3304082/comac-c949-china-unveils-quiet-supersonic-jet-50-longer-range-concorde
Wow…who expected that?!
Notice that China does everything quietly, with minimal fuss.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the CJ-1000A has already been certified and is in production…we just haven’t had an announcement yet.
Contrast that with all the (empty) fanfare surrounding the F-47 concept demonstrator: lots of words, no content.
News article in 2035 While Boeing celebrates it’s 70th year of producing their single aisle 737 aircraft China’s Comac conducts its first test flight of their C949 supersonic jet
It’s a nice concept aircraft…not sure it will ever be more than a paper airplane. And I say that of all aero companies. Let’s be clear, this aircraft is nothing more than an idea at this point. I am sure they have C959 somewhere too in concept.
SST is not inherently difficult to design, but it is difficult to design affordably. Most of the concepts for SST are all centered on bizjet applications. Airlines will have a hard time charging the fares for that premium service.
There are some other parameters that are important. Any SST aircraft had better be capable of trans-Pacific ops. Otherwise the time saving from “short flights” do not add up to much. Then there are other even more mundane matters like customs time proliferation…languishing in customs even if you make a speedy trip.
Comac will be well served to have a lineup that serves the 150 – 300 seat market with the C919 and down-sized C929. You sell to the market where 90% of the world’s airlines sit, not the fringe groups.
LT planning and projects are great for motivation, better than working five years of your life to modify an old MD-90.
> The United States cannot, & will not, become such a difficult place to deal with in terms of foreign countries buying our product, including for the always used National Security excuse, that our companies will be forced to leave in order to remain competitive. We want to sell…
> ….product and goods to China and other countries. That’s what trade is all about. We don’t want to make it impossible to do business with us. That will only mean that orders will go to someplace else. As an example, I want China to buy our jet engines, the best in the World….
> ….I have seen some of the regulations being circulated, including those being contemplated by Congress, and they are ridiculous. I want to make it EASY to do business with the United States, not difficult. Everyone in my Administration is being so instructed, with no excuses…
https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1229790099866603521
Just wait for a new executive order from Donnie Any country using the China digital currency will get 100% tariffs for imports to the US
You can replace any country name in place of Canada’s
“Canada’s old relationship with the United States, “based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation, is over”.
“Canadians must “fundamentally reimagine our economy” in the face of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.”
I’m reading that, in the 12 days since it was introduced, the new cross-border payments system has already processed the equivalent of $1.15T in payments.
Donnie can threaten what he wants — he won’t be able to impede momentum like that. And, if he tries, he’ll just incentivize further momentum.
It looks as if a lot of countries are preparing to just ignore the US as a trade and/or investment partner, and pre-insulate themselves from potential repercussions.
I’m really wondering how BA is going to weather this.
Once again Boeing leads the way with the TTBW and actually build 777X wing
https://archive.ph/bQA5X
Airbus finally waking up to the fact that a TP aka RISE needs a different wing. So, can you design a common attachment that uses two different wings depending on your choice of engine or to you go all in on a minimum of public risk tech (people don’t like props)
The TTBW demonstrator was put on low boil weeks ago — the BA employees working on it were assigned other tasks.
The “actually built” 777X wing still hasn’t been certified…after well more than a decade now.
And you call that “leading the way”…?
https://www.nasa.gov/aeronautics/new-aircraft-wing-undergoes-crucial-nasa-icing-testing/
Surprise surprise! (Not)
AW:
> Two icing test campaigns conducted on a section of a transonic truss-braced wing (TTBW), like that in development for the X-66 flight demonstrator, suggest large sections of the leading edge will require an extensive ice protection system.
Where did our expert here foresee this? Just curious 🤔
Quite fitting that BA pulled personnel from that X-66 project months ago…
https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-development/boeing-is-shifting-engineers-away-from-x-66a-development/
A fun physics project for the nerds at NASA? — sure.
A viable future product? — not so sure.
—
How long will it be before we hear that the technology tested on the F-47 “technology demonstrator” can’t practically be implemented by BA in a real-world fighter?
Excuse me, what are you talking about? 👇😂
> Boeing selects Pratt & Whitney and Collins to support new NASA sustainable flight test programme
Are you working on your fanfic?
today
“Trump says he ‘couldn’t care less’ if automakers raise prices due to tariffs and believes it’ll make people buy American-made cars”
later this week
Trump says he ‘couldn’t care less’ if Airbus aircraft prices are raised due to tariffs and believes it’ll make US airlines buy Boeing aircraft
Somewhat related (emphasis added, for aerospace content):
“Trump administration reportedly warns European companies to comply with anti-DEI order”
“Government officials have reportedly sent letters to companies in France and the European Union that hold U.S. government contracts, warning them to comply with an executive order banning diversity, equity and inclusion programs if they want to keep their contracts.”
“**Aviation and defense groups**, consulting providers and infrastructure companies are among the French companies potentially exposed to the administration’s demands.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/29/trump-administration-warns-european-companies-to-comply-with-anti-dei-order.html
—
European countries won’t be complying with this latest megalomanic delusion, so that will prompt a further severance of transatlantic trade ties.
Related
➡️To understand US trade policy, look beyond trade.
👉 US tariffs are symptoms of US middle-class fury at terrible socio-economic conditions that developed under traditional Democrats & traditional Republicans alike.
👉 Politicians needed a blame-eater, so anti-trade policies were embraced across the US political spectrum.
👉 Policies that would actually help (better social policies financed by higher taxes) are off the table, so middle class anger is here to stay & tariffs along with it.
https://x.com/BaldwinRE/status/1906292338043023714
I believe in two to three decades, the standard of living of American will be worse, can’t wait
Not sure if many are able to reflect what happened
once again…easy solution just need 60 senators to vote to override Donnie executive orders…. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/
Boeing Beats Lockheed Martin, and This F-47 Fighter Jet Contract Could Be Worth Hundreds of Billions
https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/03/30/boeing-beats-lockheed-martin-and-this-f-47-fighter/
“…could be worth hundreds of billions…”
—
Some commenters here (still) don’t grasp the difference between revenue and earnings.
For example: in the past 6 years, BA has earned about $350B in revenue…but not a penny in earnings.
Womp womp
BA stonk is flat for the last month
What happened? Buy the rumor, sell the news while the retail flood in
March 31 (Reuters) One of the world’s largest aircraft leasing companies, BOC Aviation will purchase 120 single-aisle planes from Airbus it said on Monday, as it seeks to grow its fleet to 1,000 by the end of the decade.
Singapore-based BOC Aviation, majority-owned by Bank of China ordered 70 A320neo family aircraft from Airbus and 50 737 MAX 8 jets from Boeing.
update on C919 engine…from March 2025 Comac supplier forum
“The development of a home-grown turbofan engine for China’s C919 narrowbody passenger jet has been “progressing well” in recent trials, experts and top executives from Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC) told an aviation forum.:
“Another executive from a C919 supplier, who also attended the forum, confirmed to the Post that the CJ-1000 would be able to power a C919 on verification flights “soon”, following tests on the Y-20 large military transport aircraft.”
That explains why COMAC last week announced a 50% increase in planned C919 line rates for this and the coming years.
The CJ-1000A will soon be churned out at a rate of 150 units per year…increasing to 400 per year in 2030. Not bad for a beginner 👀
One wonders how it will compare to the LEAP-1C as regards specs? 🤔
Probably a lot more favorably than many here would like to think.
Good that AB will soon have a potential alternate supplier, as a fallback for if/when Donnie starts to play games with PW engine exports 😉
since you asked
CJ-1000A vs CFM56-7 Turbofan Engine
https://www.enginediy.com/blogs/enginediy-blog-news-for-rc-engine/a-comparative-analysis-of-cj-1000a-and-cfm56-7-engines-exploring-advancements-in-commercial-aviation?srsltid=AfmBOoqM-_e0mC8YdQQ53vafa9TMeO7gHSx6x_YewHyBizpby8OqFLSR
The article says that the CJ-1000A uses “advanced combustion technologies”. Sounds LEAP-like … though it could be referring to any number of engineering options.
We’ll know soon enough.
I’m guessing that, once the basic engine is in production, we’ll be seeing a relatively rapid succession of upgrades.
@Abalone
A little light on the details…the one thing that did pop out was the thrust range ends at 24K. A Wikipedia pull yields the following nuggets
OPR = 40; BPR = 9; 10-stage compressor; 2 stage HPT; 6 stage LPT; fan diameter 76.8 in; TSFC = 0.52
LEAP by comparison
OPR = 40; BPR = 11; 10-stage compressor; 2 stage HPT; 7 stage LPT; fan diameter 77 in; TSFC = 0.51
At first blush…not an enormous difference in the publicized parameters; the thrust difference must mean a follow-on variant “B” version to power at full rating.
@ Casey
Thanks for posting those specs: looks like the CJ-1000A compares rather favorably to the LEAP — on paper, at least.
The head of the CJ-1000A program says (in an article in SCMP) that the engine performance has surpassed his most optimistic projections.
I agree with your speculation that there’ll also be a higher-thrust variant, for a C919 stretched version.
What piques my interest is in how much international content is in the CJ-1000. One of the obvious places to start is whether they are getting their turbine airfoil castings abroad or producing them domestically. Are they producing their own forgings? Spreading the work out internationally but keeping the “made in China” on the nameplate would seriously de-risk the development.
Also left out despite my looking…is how much favorably the dry weight of the CJ-1000 compares to the LEAP. Manufacturing in Waspalloy / titanium / inconel alloys takes a measure of time to master.
While many poo-poo the idea, it’s a reality now.
> JUST IN: Chinese regulators grant the country’s first-ever approvals for two companies to operate autonomous passenger drones (flying taxis).
https://x.com/BRICSinfo/status/1906818312694055419
It’s not popular yet, but in a few years, you’ll hear repeatedly about the “engineer dividend”.
Talk about a LEAP of illogical.
Does China adhere to ICAO and the 2027 standards?
Any comparison is the CJ-1000A vs LEAP and PW1100G. CFM-56 is no longer the benchmark.
Equally, putting an engine on a 4 engine transport and testing it is not production ready. While China is finally getting thrust needed, the reliability and longevity is lacking. Equally SFC and emissions.
As Greenspan has said, excessive exuberance. So the aspirations to crank out 150 a year are just that and no better than the A220.
Its not happened and unless the US cuts off the engines, it will be LEAP, very early leap without improvements.
Here is some info ICAO and C919…seems like they are complying
https://www.icao.int/APAC/Meetings/2024%20AOPSG8/WP26%20-%20THE%20AIRPORT%20CHARACTERISTICS%20OF%20C919%20presentation.pdf
http://www.comac.cc/fujian/c919acap_en.pdf
Its what we call a nothingburger.
No information on the engines and all the notations are the LEAP not a replacement.
Pretty funny. If you built a C-152 again you would have to provide the same info (truncated).
Ok, its this big and this is how much space it takes and oh by the way, it s super whize bang with all the Z7 and Zap9, trust us, we are the Chinese Government and of course we would not lie about anything.
Transparency is our first, middle and last name.
TW
April 1st’s post?
“Transparency is our first, middle and last name.”
You mean top natsec officials using comm app on their devices to talk ‘qar plans’ and invited a journalist into their chat group inadvertently. Hahaha…
Is this the title of a farce or the SNL segment?
Remarkable, it’s a testbed. Same as what other engine makers use. Lol
> Equally, putting an engine on a 4 engine transport and testing it is not production ready
They have a engine ready to undergo testing, but the F-47? When will the engines ready to undergo testing in testbed?
Gosh, look!
The GE9X engine hanging on a 4-engine 747 testbed…who’d have known? 😅
https://www.twz.com/19276/general-electrics-ge9x-engine-looks-absurdly-huge-mounted-on-this-747-testbed
That was back in 2018.
7 years on now, and the engine still isn’t in commercial service…
Our all-mighty, knows-every-answer expert has fallen! 😳
2008
FG: P&W GTF testing makes good progress on A340 flying testbed
Nice for GE. KA did not use RR for the 787 so a continuation of a smart choice to start with. .
https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2025/03/31/ge-aerospace-boeing-787-korean-air-engine-order.html
Great order for Boeing
More tests for the TTBW
https://www.defensemirror.com/news/39175
Look forward to see what results from this.
Well you won’t. Abalone nee Bryce has told us Boeing laid off its workers on the project. Granted if you believe that I have a bridge I want to sell you.
He is getting worse, throwing a lot of spaghetti at the wall, his references are other areas and he swings them over to an area they don’t apply in.
note he does not supply any link to what he thinks is what is going on.
Maybe Bondi would like to give us his input on the matter as well. 😆
Well its one way to get rid of the opposition!~ Shame Biden did not do that.
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-far-right-national-rally-marine-le-pen-court-verdict-embezzlement-case-guilty/
On the other hand you look into any of them and they are all guilty.
“Boeing slows output of 737 Max jets to 31 a month due to wing systems issues, Air Current reports”
“Boeing slowed production of 737 MAX airplanes to 31 per month from 38 due to delays related to fitting wing systems, the Air Current reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the progress of the planemaker’s factory in Renton, Washington.
“The factory had briefly reached a production rate of 38 planes in February but pulled back to 31 after unfinished assembly tasks in wing systems installation spiked sharply, according to the report on the aviation news website.”
“The issue persisted through March and Boeing was further slowing some earlier parts of its wing production to catch up with the delays, the report said.”
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/boeing-slows-output-737-max-jets-31-month-due-wing-systems-issues-air-current-reports-5036916
Actual delivery rates are currently much lower than reported production rates.
I don’t buy Boeing ever came close to 38 a month.
As much as I think highly of Jon, his sources in this case have a low level view of what is going on.
So, maybe for one day they had a false positive and hit 38 a month if it kept up, knowing it would not do so.
31 a month sounds right for where they are in ramp up.
They may be ahead of wing production and decided to do a test push to see what rate they could sustain. The whole supply chain is going to be doing trials to see what they can manage.
38 a month is their limit and testing that level makes a lot of sense as does going beyond it. They are going to want to have the ducks in a row so they can go beyond it.
People keep buying MAX aircraft, lots of backlog. They could deliver 3 or 4 x what they are making and get the money if they could deliver.
from BBC
“EU goods are expected to face a tariff of about 20% when entering the United States.”
Wonder how many aircraft Airbus has in backlog for US airlines…
Need to consider if Airbus shuts down Spirit Aero North Carolina and move it to France
What about having Airbus Alabama using their FTZ status and ship in subassemblies from Canada, N Ireland and China to avoid tariffs and deliver to airlines outside the US
A220 backlog for US airlines (out of total backlog about 500) (37%)
Delta 70
Breeze 60
Jet Blue 55
more info on US airlines Airbus order backlog
A350
Delta 29
United Airlines 45
So about 74 out a backlog (12/24) of 718 or 10%…90% of A350 backlog is for airlines outside the US
I sure those delivery slots will be taken up by US airlines competitors
more info on US airlines Airbus order backlog
A320 series
Frontier 290*
American 220
United 180
Delta 155
Spirit 112*
Jet Blue 85
So for round number let’s say 1,000 A320’s for US Airlines backlog out of a total 7,000 or 14% But…if you take away Frontier and Spirit order backlog of about 400 (never really ever going to be delivered) so the net of 600…or about 10% of Airbus net of Spirit and Frontier is for US airlines….again 90% of backlog is for global customers outside the US
Those delivery slots can be reallocated
Summary who is the real lose on the tariff war…US airlines
Feel like calculating the corresponding percentages for the BA order book?
777X: 100% foreign
787: I’m guessing at least 70% foreign.
737: I’m guessing at least 70% foreign.
So, if countries react to the new tariffs by slapping import tariffs on US products, then BA will be hammered.
then again, maybe the US airlines don’t want their new aircraft deliveries based on their stock performance in 2025 (see article and chart in article)
“Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines are all down around 30-40% so far this year.”
https://www.axios.com/2025/03/31/canada-us-travel
@ DP
You make a valid point.
I’m wondering how long it will take before we hear about deferral/cancellation of orders.
Consumer sentiment in the US seems to be souring at a remarkable pace, and airlines are already giving muted outlooks for the coming quarters. On top of that, we have the developing downturn in foreign tourism to the US, with flights already being pulled/thinned.
Does anyone really still think that UA has an appetite for 100+100 787s? What revenue will it have available to pay for them, where will it fly them, and what will their load factor be?
Simililar questions as regards Delta’s widebodies…although the A350s can be easily re-assigned to Emirates (for example), if required.
“Need to consider if Airbus shuts down Spirit Aero North Carolina and move it to France”
I think that’s already happening.
Airbus recently announced a delay in A350F EIS due to supply chain issues…that may well be because AB is trying to find another source for the parts made by Spirit.
Leonardo in Italy comes to mind: it makes fuselage sections for the 787, and is looking to jettison that contract due to continuing low order volume.
If not internal to Airbus, my bet is Tata Advance System in India They would be willing to put up a new factory and composite mfg. infrastructure
Yes, indeed: also an excellent option.
And would fit AB’s commitment to increase manufacturing in India.
AB needs to look for any option(s) that help minimize exposure to US whim.
Let run some numbers. Boeing is working to 10 x 787 a month.
That is a low order number?
Leonardo has problems. The have quality control problems and they can’t manage their contract.
Boeing took over Charleston to get Leonardo and CV out because they were messing up the work and could not be redeemed.
You know your work is really bad when Boeing can do better.
Leonardo shipped out of spec fusalge sections
Leonardo messed up the tail feathers and Boeing opened a plant to make them.
Leonardo has two main problems
1. Management, maybe the mafia is running the plant?
2. They are a high cost producer and can’t do the job.
As for replacing Spirit? Good luck with that. They just need money as the bid was too cheap trying to diversify. Like the A220, Airbus is going to have to put some bucks into things. Airbus was the one that wanted cheap but required top quality.
Airbus still wants cheap, they want to be paid to take things over, how absurd. You get what you don’t pay for.
‘Boeing is working to 10 x 787 a month.’
So when is it going to happen? 🙄
Boeing has all these very, very beautiful and grand plans, like $10b FCF, 50 737 MAX/mth, oh and once upon a time, the NMA blah blah blah. Where are they now?
‘Leonardo has problems. The have quality control problems and they can’t manage their contract.’
Oh only Leonardo has QC problems?
How about Spirit Aero (eg the 737 fuselage) or Boeing?
“Boeing took over Charleston to get Leonardo and CV out..”
Are you writing fiction again?
OTOH Look! What I’ve found:
“Just like the fuselage, Boeing also found problems with Alenia’s horizontal stabiliser. In 2010, the company uncovered flaws and ordered that the parts be inspected. This was widely reported at the time.
But what was not reported, and what is revealed by another document shared with Al Jazeera, is that Boeing’s supplier quality team had disapproved the Foggia clean room facility and recommended that work be stopped.
The documents show that despite the disapproval, Boeing managers wrote to Alenia and instructed the company to “continue with fabrication and assembly activities without delay”. Managers had overruled the quality inspectors in order to continue production.”
You’ll never see the log, even if it’s in your eye because you’re biggest fan. Admit it!
“Leonardo Aerostructures can no longer wait on Boeing solution, explores carve-out, alliances”
“After continued reductions (-36-41%) in 787 production, this key supply chain link for fuselage sections and other composite parts looks at restructuring options for the Grottaglie facility and Aerostructures Division.”
“…The result is that shipments for four Leonardo plants have dropped from 80 to 55 to 49 in 2024 and from a planned rate of 115 to 97 to 81 in 2025. Cingolani noted that three of these plants are doing relatively well, but the one in Grottaglie, Italy, is struggling due to Boeing’s continued decrease in production.”
“Cingolani explains that Leonardo’s Aerostructures capability is based on 4.5 million hours of engineering capacity, but the workload based on the announced rates by Boeing has decreased to 3.2 million hours between 2025 and 2029. That loss of work and revenue is not sustainable. This unutilized capacity is a burden on the financial position of the Aerostructures Division. Further, additional impact is expected due to inflationary pressure on material and labor costs.”
https://www.compositesworld.com/news/leonardo-aerostructures-can-no-longer-wait-on-boeing-solution-explores-carve-out-alliances
Perfect opportunity to see if Airbus can use some of Leonardo’s capacity, and rid itself of Kinston/Wichita reliance.
Seems autoclave should handle A350 based on part sizing.
Pic of Italy factory-787
https://www.startmag.it/innovazione/leonardo-ecco-tutte-le-novita-per-il-sito-di-grottaglie/
Pic of Spirit NC A350
https://media.bizj.us/view/img/10137985/6419451251920dd82b92o*900xx4928-2772-0-238.jpg
@ DP
A logical move would be to make a switch — in which Spirit would do the 787 fuselage work currently done by Leonardo, and Leonardo would take over the fuselage work currently done by Spirit in the US.
Donnie can then brag that his re-shoring efforts are working, and Airbus can wash its hands of an unreliable supplier country. Moreover, supply lines will be shortened.
Spirit NC would be part of Boeing in the future…so yes…reshoring the 787 fuselage section…
from Bloomberg
“French hotel group Accor SA warned that forward bookings from Europe to the US this summer are down 25%, as travelers that feel put off by President Donald Trump’s border clampdown divert to other locations”
That said, April 2nd will be start of the “official Trump US Recession” While it will take the “economists” a few months to collect their data (which the US consumers already know) to call it a recession.
I am put off and stuck here!
Oops Americans will run out of TP. You know whom to blame.
Trump tariffs on Canadian lumber risk toilet paper supply
https://financialpost.com/commodities/lumber-tariffs-risk-toilet-paper-supply
From another Bloomberg article:
“Unlike those imposed during Trump’s first presidency, the new metal tariffs also apply to downstream products, including nuts and bolts and auto parts.”
“Picarazzi says she’s explored the possibility of bringing production back to the US but can’t make the math work. She recently sent 20 requests to factories and got back only two quotes, both of which were double her costs in Asia, she says. “I am a patriotic American,” Picarazzi says. “I would be so proud to be able to manufacture here, but no bank is going to give me a loan to start a factory.”
goes back to an article about 2 months ago about 25% tariff on Mexico products
Black and Decker CEO (Power tools) if they set up a plant in the US the products would cost 60% compare to adding 25% for products shipped in from Mexico…also mentioned the cost will be passed on to the US consumers
There is reason why for a global mfg. supply chain. Donnie is trying relive the days back in the 1950’s when the US GDP was 70% of the global economy…compared to 26% in 2023
50% of the US population would be hunting him. They take their TP seriously.
could congress actually do their job?
“Republican senators join push to block Trump’s Canadian tariffs”
“With President Donald Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” of tariff implementation fast approaching, Senate Democrats are putting Republican support for some of those plans to the test by forcing a vote to nullify the emergency declaration that underpins the tariffs on Canada.”
Donnie executive order for Canada tariffs is based on “43 lbs. of fentanyl were seized coming from Canada to the US in 2024”
Srsly No joke! We live in a matrix. Damn
> Liberation Day, June 1930. “Smoot confident that stocks will rise.”
https://x.com/AstorAaron/status/1907439483814805648
“Airbus delivered about 70 jets in March, industry sources say”
“PARIS (Reuters) -Airbus delivered about 70 planes in March, industry sources said on Tuesday, up about 11% from March last year…”
“If confirmed, the estimated March level would bring Airbus deliveries for the first quarter to around 135 aircraft, lagging the 142 seen in the same period last year.”
“Airbus has warned that first-quarter deliveries would be constrained due mainly to a shortage of engines from its biggest supplier CFM, which brought forward some supplies to the previous quarter to help Airbus meet its 2024 targets.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-delivered-70-jets-march-151530791.html
From Planespotters, BA appears to have delivered:
– 3 787s (2 from the line, 1 from the parking lot);
– 27 MAXs (of which several from the parking lot);
– 3 777Fs.
So, that’s 33 in total…several of which weren’t from the line.
—
Interestingly, AB appears to have delivered 9x widebodies, namely 7x A350 and 2x A330neo.
It also appears to have delivered 9x A220s.
That therefore indicates about 52 A320/A321neo deliveries.
Funny it was engines not parts from Spirit as was speculated prior.
Fortunately AB is not as reliant on Spirit as the you-know-who hehe
AB is pushing the engine makers as it increases production, OTOH BA is “bedeviled” by its internal “fragile” production.
The Spirit facilities in Kinston and Wichita have become toxic “assets” in the era of Trump II.
I think we can assume that AB is putting a lot of effort into sourcing the parts in question from non-US suppliers — when that happens, Kinston and Wichita will be of no further use to AB.
The era of de-coupling has now gone into high gear. I don’t think that the average US-ian is aware of the extent to which foreign entities are switching to non-US suppliers for a whole spectrum of products and services.
As usual ,your March production numbers are askew.
If your just giving us random delivery projections,I suggest you wait for actual March production totals, before giving us meaningless info.
BTW.
Boeing deliveries stand at 41 for the month, not 33.
“Boeing delivered 41 aircraft in March, including 33 737 MAX, four 787s, and four 777-200LRFs. This brings its first-quarter total to 130.”
I get my info from Planespotters.
If their info isn’t actualized quickly enough, that’s not my fault.
Last-minute deliveries by BA evidently take a few days to appear…that process seems to be quicker for AB.
But, the basic message is the same, isn’t it? BA is nowhere near projected line rates, for either the MAX or the 787.
Air India’s ‘whitetail’ plane windfall from China dries up
Boeing’s surplus jets, originally built for Chinese carriers, fueled growth – but with those exhausted, the airline faces delivery delays
Having ordered 190 of the aircraft in June 2023, Air India’s low cost arm, Air India Express, has already taken possession of 41 of the 50 so-called whitetail planes – those built for others but still in storage. Another four are due this month and five between May and June.
Of the 41 whitetail aircraft Air India has received so far, 38 of them are in operations and three are being repainted, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing confidential arrangements.
Apart from the whitetail aircraft from Boeing, Air India has also received six Airbus 350-900s, which were meant for Russian Flag carrier Aeroflot. Besides, it leased 11 Boeing 777s from the market, they said.
Air India gain, China loss.
It should be noted, the Whitetails on MAX and 787 are coming to or have come to an end.
It will be real production data going forward.
Airbus has finally got rolling, 3 months in a row loss to Boeing would be a huger embarrassment
Of course this is not a good look either!
https://simpleflying.com/video/malaysia-a330-grounded/
Oops… I wonder why, if the 787 and 737 Max are up to par?
Air India will Not Exercise its Boeing 787 and 737 MAX Options Order
“We can build merchant ships and do.”
Once upon a time??
> “Will take years, if not decades, *if ever*” would have been the more accurate statement. Outside of building for the captive/tiny Jones Act market, there is currently no reason to locate in the US given the numerous obstacles to efficient production (e.g. *inflated steel prices*).
> “US shipbuilding is effectively dormant, producing only a handful of vessels annually…While policymakers envision attracting South Korean and Japanese builders to establish production in the US, *such transitions will take years, if not decades*, to materialize.”
https://hellenicshippingnews.com/shipbuilding-in-the-crosshairs-of-us-policies/
https://x.com/cpgrabow/status/1907436071530459166
Lmao one rule for me another for thee
NYTimes: On Second Thought, U.S. Decides Shipyard Subsidies Aren’t So Bad
“The collapse of the shipbuilding agreement is an example of how easy it is for Democrats and Republicans alike to talk about ending ”corporate welfare,” and how hard it is actually to do it. And it illustrates how an accord that would save taxpayers millions of dollars and level the playing field — an objective both Mr. Clinton and Bob Dole say is at the core of their economic foreign policies — can fall apart as soon as companies and workers discover that other nations expect the United States to make concessions as well.
It also raises serious questions about whether American allies can believe that the United States will put into effect the trade accords that its negotiators initial.”
NYTimes Opinion | What I Saw in China on the Eve of Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’
> I Just Saw the Future. It Was Not in America … too much consensus that politically safe space is to hammer Beijing, chant a few rounds of “U.S.A., U.S.A.,” issue some platitudes that democracies will always out-innovate autocracies and call it a day.
https://x.com/pstAsiatech/status/1907439239727644881
Ok, the horse has been beaten to death.
What many of us are asking is you got a Right Wing Maga fanatics asking hard questions. Where were they when Hegseth, Gabert, Petel and Bondi were lying?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CAIdxaKU3g
Screen shot
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GniycniWEAA8RK6?format=jpg&name=large
interesting tactic
“Automotive News reports that German conglomerate Volkswagen of America is halting vehicle shipments from Mexico, which typically come by rail. In addition the German automaker plans to notify customers of the upcoming tariffs by placing an “import fee,” notice on its vehicles.”
I guess VW of America is not going to eat the federal import tax just add it to the sticker price!
Perserve EU jobs ship in higher end cars to the US and lower production (lower end models in Mexico and send more to Central and South America…probably some US part suppliers will get hurt in lower Mexico production rates
Isn’t the “logic” that tariffs are paid by “foreign countries”, not Americans? Real-life lessons are going to be expensive, but look for the bright side, those who went thru the depression learned the importance of saving, but a wholesale change like this would wreck havoc to the economy. This may be the S-curve of MAGA, but will America remain at the top of the world? Hey @TW this is not done by some mysterious external adversaries, it’s a made-in-America crisis.
so far
“President Donald Trump today announced tariffs of at least 10% on practically all goods coming into the United States, plus even higher rates on dozens of countries that have the highest trade deficits with the United States.”
” Importers of goods from other nations will begin paying the baseline 10% tariff on Saturday at 12:01 am ET.”
So US airlines will be paying at least 10% federal import tax on Airbus deliveries…unless we find out the EU is going to be charged more
For the EU, the tariff is actually 20%…which the EU will match immediately.
For cars — from anywhere outside the US — there’s a separate blanket tariff of 25%.
Anyone doing business with Venezuela — such as China and the EU — will be slapped with an *additional* blanket tariff of 25%.
After-hours trading on Wall Street showed large downward movements in all major indices.
Also a sharp downward movement in the dollar index.
So, Donnie has just announced huge blanket tariffs on every country in the world — including, for example, 34% on China, 26% on India, 20% on the EU and 10% on the UK.
All those countries will be announcing matching tariffs or non-tariff measures tomorrow or the week thereafter. As a result, nobody outside the US will be buying Boeings….or anything else from the US, for that matter.
Of interest here:
Before today, the US charged an average tariff of 1.5%. The EU charged an average tariff of 1.4%. The UK charged just 0.7%.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/list-of-tariffs-by-country
So, one wonders where Donnie gets his data about being “ripped off” by other countries.
article has a pic of tariffs by country…how many Boeing customers are on that list?
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/02/trump-tariffs-live-updates.html
Vietnam products are going to get expensive with 46% federal import tax
Vietnam shipped to US last year goods worth $142 billi
The US imports about $3.5T worth of products/services each year.
So, US consumers will now be paying at least $350B extra for those yearly imports.
That’s $1000 per year for every person in the US.
Median pre-tax income per capita in the US is $43.000.
Go figure.
Buy American instead?
Sure…then US consumers will be paying even more, and they’ll have to do without lots of things like coffee, cocoa, bananas, tequila, lithography machines, pharmaceuticals,…the list goes on and on.
the big items are clothes …main countries that export of clothing to the US are getting hit 30% to 46% federal import tax….
Can’t imagine Americans will have to flock across the border to pick up “cheap” clothing in MX and CA…
and beer
“The Trump administration on Wednesday said it was slapping a 25% tariff on all beer imports, adding the beverage and empty aluminum cans to a list of derivative products subject to its tariffs on aluminum.”
> The Simpsons in 2025: “Homer, there’re no eggs and your beer is getting expensive!”
“Get a second job!”
article on has good listing tariffs by country
20% EU tariffs…time for Delta, American and United to defer their Airbus deliveries by 4 years
Time to shift Airbus Alabama to all export production with using their FTZ
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/02/trump-tariffs-live-updates.html
> The overall weighted-average tariff now is the highest in over 100 years.
Bigger than Smoot-Hawley.
Are you ready for a return of 1930s’ depression?
Trump has to prepare to nationalize BA after its BCA orders go up in smoke
might be time to sell off defense unit with F47 program to Lockheed
Today officially starts the Trump’s US Depression which will end on January 20, 2029
here is count down clock… 1,388 more days of misery and economic chaos
https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/election?iso=20290120T12&p0=263&msg=Inauguration+2029&font=serif
Vietnam is going to embrace America, generously take delivery of several hundred BA aircraft on order… 😄 .. I kid you not!
It’s going turn a whole generation, or more, of Vietnamese away! Well done.
https://x.com/JamesSurowiecki/status/1907559189234196942
> NYC streets by 2035
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GnABR2UXEAAraFK?format=jpg&name=large
Historian:
.. civilizations often decay from within, due to factors such as: Loss of Moral Fiber: As civilizations become complacent, they can lose their moral compass and become self-serving; Parasitic Elite: The cultural elite may become detached from the needs of the people and focus on their own interests; Arrogance and Hubris: …
Coming soon:
dollar stores out-of-business sale
Prepare your shopping list, last chance!
so its more Trump admin disinformation campaign on tariffs rates to rally the MAGA base but the facts are told by the impacted countries…then MAGA (Make America Go Away)
from above post
https://x.com/JamesSurowiecki/status/1907559189234196942
Hilarious!
After insulting its former allies, threatening to annex their territories, and withholding arms supplies to Ukraine in the middle of a war…the US still expects European nations to continue to buy US arms:
“US officials object to European push to buy weapons locally”
“The Trump administration – like previous administrations – has pushed for European purchases of U.S. weapons before, including at this year’s Munich Security Conference. “Some of the sources consider the recent messages from Washington as a continuation of U.S. policy.
“Still, several sources said the U.S. emphasis on the matter has intensified in recent weeks as the EU has moved more decisively to decouple its weapons procurement.
“”They are upset about ReArm proposal and that the U.S. is excluded,” said one senior European source.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-officials-object-european-push-buy-weapons-locally-2025-04-02/
Mr. Rubio doesn’t seem to grasp that, if you behave like a national security risk, then you’ll be treated like a national security risk — and, accordingly, won’t be used as an arms supplier.
Could these people be any more out of touch? 🙈
It’s 2025: your have to pay pizzo even though they don’t provide protection anymore
The new normal!
Let’s see if there’s any visionary leader who’s bold enough to pay a visit to BJ.
Oh aktually there’s a meeting in Vietnam planned.
Is Vietnam ready to formalize a deal rumored?
Viet Jet currently has 200 737 on order Looks like Vietnam Airlines have no Boeing aircraft currently on order
Read the BBC article on the new tariffs
“For example, the US buys more goods from China than it sells to them – there is a goods deficit of $295bn. The total amount of goods it buys from China is $440bn.
Dividing 295 by 440 gets you to 67% and you divide that by two and round up. Therefore the tariff imposed on China is 34%.
Similarly, when it applied to the EU, the White House’s formula resulted in a 20% tariff.”
When in fact, the EU average tariff on US goods imported is about 2%
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93gq72n7y1o
Moreover:
This “formula” was only applied to goods.
It wasn’t applied to services — which is self-serving, since the US has a trade surplus with many countries vis-à-vis services (although that’s now changing in response to recent US aggression).
Always a good idea to entrust an economy to a crowd of amateurs 👍
The dollar is declining dramatically — currently down 2.25% in just 18 hours…and down 2.5% against the euro.
The US imposed “export control” to limit what can be exported or serviced in China. Whose fault?
Look at the new tariffs imposed on Cambodia, Indonesia & Vietnam, those who listened and moved their production to the above countries are now penalized. Next Americans should learn how to assemble widgets at high school, that’s their future!
Very detailed analysis of the various tariffs recently announced by Trump, together with their cumulative effects on US imports in various product categories.
Of relevance for BA:
Electrical equipment: +6.3%
Rubber & plastic products: +6.9%
Machinery and equipment: + 6.4%
Metal products: +7%
So, BA will be paying more for imports of all these products.
In addition, BA will have to increase wages, to compensate workers for higher inflation caused by these tariffs.
And then the big one: when countries around the world slap their own counter-tariffs on the US, BA products will be hit by foreign price hikes of at least 10%.
No wonder BA stock is down 5% in pre-trading today 🙈
https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/where-we-stand-fiscal-economic-and-distributional-effects-all-us-tariffs-enacted-2025-through-april
Economist: “.. the tariffs announced today are equal to something like a $70 a barrel increase in the price of oil; the tariffs announced during Trump’s second term are closer to a $100 a barrel increase”
Let that sink in.
from yesterday’s Senate hearing
“Ortberg replied: “80% of commercial airplanes we deliver are outside the United States
And 80% of the content of those airplanes comes (from) out of the US”
> “It’s only a flesh wound!”
Boeing stock currently down 7.48% (18:30 CET).
Airbus closed (an hour ago) down 2.9%.
—
Today’s fall in the dollar — and its knock-on effect on OPEC+ quotas — has resulted in a 7% drop in oil prices and a 4% drop in EU natural gas prices. Great news for European energy costs, and a big hit to US energy revenue.
Don’t know if Donnie will be too happy about that…😅
> Just to reminder of what happened afterward Smoot-Hawley tariffs.
World trade (total imports) dropped by almost two-third from July 1929 to July 1933
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GnkL9J1WQAA0gqI?format=jpg&name=900×900
https://x.com/ummodern/status/1907569065419485320
How soon will it take for BA’s export sales to drop by two-third?
Stellantis idles plants in Mexico and Canada due to tariffs
“Stellantis said it is pausing production at two assembly plants in Canada and Mexico as the company attempts to navigate President Donald Trump’s new round of 25% automotive tariffs.”
“The actions will result in about 900 U.S.-represented employees at supporting plants getting temporarily laid off in addition to about 4,500 hourly workers at the Canadian plant, Stellantis said.”
Automakers know their 25% tariffed vehicles (from Canada and Mexico) will just sit on the US dealership lots not being sold
CBC
• Automaker Stellantis has confirmed it’s shutting down its assembly plant in Windsor, Ont., for two weeks
• The factory is set to shut down Monday and reopen the week of April 21
========
Stellantis’ inventory may still on the high side compared with the industry.
At the end of February / Days’ supply
Industry average 89
Chrysler 106
Ram 112
Jeep 123
Dodge 141
Chevy 85
GMC 86
Ford 126
=========
VW plans to add import fees to the sticker prices
Minivan sales lone bright spot for Stellantis in first quarter
• The Chrysler brand was virtually alone in being the only Stellantis division to show positive sale numbers in the first quarter in both Canada and the U.S.
• Overall, Stellantis’s sales were down 12 per cent in the U.S. and 18 per cent in Canada.
Trade war with penguins? Trump’s tariffs hit some remote targets across the globe
“US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs extend to some uninhabited islands that have no trade and are home only to wildlife.”
So there is a plan?
China urges US to immediately lift tariffs, vows retaliation
“Trump on Wednesday announced China would be hit with a 34% tariff, on top of the 20% he previously imposed earlier this year, bringing the total new levies to 54% and close to the 60% figure he had threatened while on the campaign trail.”
“Trump Gives China’s Xi a Chance to Win Over World Hit by Tariffs”
“Beyond spurring a selloff in markets around the world, Trump’s unprecedented decision to impose punitive tariffs on everyone risks alienating the US from a global economic system that it help build in the wake of World War II, further testing alliances that have endured since then. Many countries in the region already have seen China overtake the US as their largest trading partners, and the latest tariffs may further increase their dependence on Beijing.
“Liberation Day isolates America from the rest of the world by incentivizing all other countries to trade with each other instead of America,” said Frank Tsai, an adjunct professor at the Emlyon Business School’s Shanghai campus. “China now has a golden opportunity to beat America at its own game.”
““The Trump tariffs do amplify the message that US is no longer the benevolent hegemon it was and the global order is bound to shift as the result of it,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at Washington-based think tank Stimson Center. “Beijing feels blessed that it is not singled out as the only country to face more US tariffs,” he said, adding that “China will deepen ties with US allies and partners to advance its own alternative world order.””
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-gives-china-xi-chance-122001974.html
Before F-47, There Was X-36! Why Did Boeing Abandon Its Tailless Aircraft That Was Co-Developed With NASA?
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/here-is-looking-at-the-x-37-tailless-boeing-je/
“Aerospace walks trade tightrope as EU mulls tariff response”
“PARIS (Reuters) – Aerospace firms sought to contain a minefield of pressures on Thursday after an Airbus-led body urged the European Union to hit back against U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and one of Europe’s biggest airlines warned of higher fares.
“Aircraft, engines, spare parts and components from landing gear to seats face higher costs and planning for the peak summer travel season could be disrupted as Brussels mulls a response, industry experts warned.
“It will be chaos. It creates massive demand uncertainty as airlines plan their network schedules,” Rob Morris, global head of consultancy at UK-based Cirium Ascend, said.”
“France’s aerospace industry has written to the European Commission calling for “proportionate and assertive” countermeasures if the new U.S. tariffs cause significant damage, a person familiar with the matter said.
“But the appeal from the country’s powerful Gifas aerospace lobby, whose rotating presidency is held by Airbus, also calls for any retaliation to be fine-tuned so as to avoid hurting European companies that rely heavily on U.S. imports.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aerospace-walks-tightrope-airbus-led-150813705.html
Here is one for Bryce (ahem, I mean Abalone)
https://defence-industry.eu/boeing-delivers-first-upgraded-ah-64e-apache-to-royal-netherlands-air-force/
Boeing’s finest. Happy to contribute to the defense of Netherlands.
Here is one for @davecalhoun (ahem, I mean Transworld) 😅
That Apache was ordered years ago…and it won’t be used in anyone’s defense if/when the US withholds parts and/or software updates. That’s the whole issue here, isn’t it?
Have there been any EU orders of US kit since that Zelensky showdown in the WH? Nope.
Will existing EU orders of US kit get cancelled or modified? Likely.
Will there be any/many new EU orders for US kit? Very doubtful.
@TW
I thought Bondi should be made aware of this as well .😆
At issue is Bondi would not know on a nice day the sky is blue.
Imagine a world without Byr.,Bon.,and Ab.,with all his charming personalities.☺️
“China to impose 34% retaliatory tariff on all goods imported from the U.S.”
“Separately, China also added 11 U.S. firms to the “unreliable entities list” that the Beijing administration says have violated market rules or contractual commitments. China’s ministry of commerce also added 16 U.S. entities to its export control list and said it would implement export controls on seven types of rare-earth related items, including samarium, gadolinium and terbium.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/04/china-to-impose-34percent-retaliatory-tariff-on-all-goods-imported-from-the-us.html
—
So, not many BA deliveries to China in the coming months, methinks.
No more 777F or 787 or 737 MAX.
> JPM puts recession odds at 60%
How about a depression?
America doesn’t need any friends.
Great. She got what she wished for.
Newsflash…we are in a recession now!
JP Morgan…Jan 20%, March 40% April 60% recession chance…do they really know what they are doing?
Jamie Dimon sold a huge chunk of his stock on Feb 20.
Did he know something we didn’t?
America doesn’t need any friends Pt II
Bloomberg: Lucrative Transatlantic Flights at Risk as Trump Roils Trade
> Ticket sales for travel from the US to Europe from June through August were running 13% below 2024 levels during the first quarter, according to advanced booking data analyzed by Cirium.
Hardening consumer attitudes could play a role in what comes next. Even before Trump’s tariff bombshell, some Europeans were steering clear of the US. Summer bookings from Europe to the US were down 25%, according to hotel chain Accor SA, which operates Fairmont, Mondrian, and Sofitel hotels. Some are choosing Canada, South America or Egypt, CEO Sébastien Bazin told Bloomberg Television.
> The US Travel Association has identified “concerning trends” in domestic and international inbound travel, including questions around “America’s welcomeness” abroad, alongside a slowing US economy, travel restrictions and safety concerns.
“These challenges are real and demand decisive action,” the association said in a statement, adding that it’s pushing Congress and members of Trump’s team to enact expansionary policies.
Some airlines have begun to trim back transatlantic schedules. For the week including June 3, carriers now plan 6.1% fewer flights from the US to Western Europe than they did in early February, based on data collected by Bloomberg NEF.
US ticket prices are likely at their worst levels in several quarters, according to BofA’s Didora. “We do not envy management teams trying to guide in this unknown environment,” he wrote. “Demand trends have deteriorated quickly.”
Canada is also a concern. United is reducing flights from Washington’s Dulles International to Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal after what CEO Scott Kirby called a “big drop” in Canadian traffic to the US. The airline has also canceled a seasonal redeye flight between Los Angeles and Toronto.
American, Air Canada — which has reported a 10% drop in April-September bookings to the US — and Southwest Airlines Co. “must cut” their earnings outlooks, said Sheila Kahyaoglu, a Jefferies analyst. She said Delta is likely to do the same as consumer and corporate demand weakens.
> Trump’s clampdown at the US border has added to the sense of unease. In well-publicized cases, citizens from Canada and Germany were detained for weeks over seemingly minor paperwork issues. Those two countries have issued updated advisories about visiting the US, joining Denmark, Finland, France and the UK.
William Høj-Jensen, a Danish medical technology worker, has traveled to the US multiple times in the past. He longs to return with his family to a country that is home to sights like the Grand Canyon — but doesn’t expect to visit soon.
The 41-year-old said he’s irked by Trump’s determination to take over Greenland — now part of the Kingdom of Denmark — and doesn’t want to lend his support to the US economy by traveling there. He and his wife are now considering visiting Greece or Spain, while family and friends vow not to travel to the US while Trump is in office, he said.
“The way I see it, and I think the way a lot of Danes see it, is that all trust in the US is just gone,” he said. “How can we trust someone who’s literally saying we want to take part of your country?”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-04/lufthansa-delta-united-airlines-feel-impact-of-trump-tariffs
You know what I worry about?
Donnie is using one shocking event, to cover up the previous one – moving it off the front page.
The whole Signalgate thing is on the backburner, as the world grapples with a crashing world economy.
How soon, before he declares Panama/Greenland/Canada ‘crucial to national security’ and get’s the ‘yes men’ in the military, to launch a special military operation, into one of them?
Who is going to worry about economic matters, when the US has boots on the ground, in another nation?
Donnie can always use the impending attack on Iran to (try to) deflect attention from tariffs and their associated stock market meltdown.
So, Canada, Greenland and Panama can wait on the backburner a little longer.
Airbus Boosts A220 Output with Mirabel Delivery Center
“Airlines are now receiving A220 regional twinjets from Airbus’ new delivery center at its Mirabel production line near Montreal. Air Baltic recently accepted the 50th of up to 100 A220-300s being added to its fleet by 2030 at the 75,000-sq-ft facility, which has four aircraft stands.”
So they can delivery A220s to global airlines from Montreal without the worry of US tariffs.
Not only that – A220 deliveries to US airlines from Mobile, will only suffer from the supply side of things.
Parts coming into the US, from elsewhere, will be tariffed, but once the components are in the states, aircraft can be delivered to domestic airlines like Delta, Breeze and Jetblue, without a tariff on sales.
Not sure how parts going to Mobile from Canada will be treated, with CUSMA terms still (somewhat) respected.
If Airbus was smart, they sent a bunch of inventory down to Mobile, before tariffs, to bulk up production on both the A220/A320 lines.
Engines coming from Pratt and GE are good to go.
We’ll see. What a mess Donnie created, just so he could give tax breaks to the wealthy…
When retaliatory tariffs kick in more widely, aircraft delivered from the US will be subject to international tariffs — regardless of whether those aircraft are BA or AB.
China’s 34% retaliation was just the start.
It won’t be long before Mobile (temporarily) loses its utility.
I agree on the tariffs point.
Thursday was Canada.
Friday was China.
I would even postulate that perhaps some of the leaders got together and put together a plan, market by market – to hit Donnie with a steady diet of reciprocal tariffs, over the coming days.
Not everyone at once. Just enough to hammer a daily 5% decline in the markets, each day a new one is announced.
Euro is going to be a big one. India, as well. Japan. UK. South Korea. Brazil.
China hits back at Trump tariffs with own taxes, export curbs
“China on Friday announced a slew of countermeasures against tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, including additional tariffs of 34% on all U.S. goods and curbs on export of some rare earths, deepening an escalating trade war.”
Those Boeing aircraft just got 34% more expensive….no deliveries anytime soon (just a fyi last order was in 2017) Wonder how many Chinese aircraft are sitting the Boeing “parking lot” But look at the bright side, good news of Air India Express they can pick up some already produced 737s
“But look at the bright side, good news of Air India Express they can pick up some already produced 737s”
…until India introduces reciprocal 26% tariffs…at which stage that BA escape route will become somewhat more difficult 👀
Good point, if one wants to play out worst case scenario for Boeing 737 and 787 shipments (no parking lot games), what would their monthly delivery rates be for only supplying US airlines
Just another day
> NTSB issues a total of seven safety recommendations to the FAA and Boeing to address noncompliant evacuation slide components on Boeing airplanes. Download the 13-page report here:
https://ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Reports/AIR2502.pdf
https://x.com/NTSB_Newsroom/status/1907854495499104679
“FAA Warns Boeing 787 Radio Can Cut Off Air Traffic Radio Without Notice”
“According to reports received by the FAA, very high frequency (VHF) radio channels are transferring between the active and standby settings without flight crew input. “The uncommanded frequency changes could result in missed communications between the flightcrew and Air Traffic Control,” the FAA announcement reads. The proposed FAA rule would instruct the aeronautics company to address the problem by updating software that controls the in-flight radio.”
“…Even more concerning is a comment written by Qatar Airways, which claims that even after the software patch recommended by the FAA was installed on its Boeing fleet, communication problems have persisted.
“Qatar Airways already modified all affected B787 airplanes with … new LSAPs on all Tuning Control Panels (TCP) to address Un-commanded VHF Frequency Change between active and standby,” the comment reads.
“However … Qatar Airways flight crew are still reporting similar issues from post-mod airplanes. QTR already reported the events to Boeing/Collins aerospace for further investigation and root cause determination … As of now, Qatar believes that the issue is not completely addressed, and the unsafe condition still exists.”
https://prospect.org/infrastructure/transportation/2025-04-04-faa-warns-boeing-787-radio-can-cut-off-air-traffic-control/
—
The blind leading the lame
“Trump tariffs spark rift over Boeing’s next-gen F-47 plane”
“In a move that could reshape the landscape of military technology and international alliances, the United Kingdom is reportedly weighing the option of revoking a license for stealth technology integral to the United States’ newest sixth-generation fighter jet, the F-47, developed by Boeing.”
“The U.K.’s potential involvement in this technology stems from decades of collaboration with the U.S. on aerospace projects. The most prominent example is the F-35 program, where British companies like BAE Systems played a key role in developing components, including stealth coatings and avionics.
“While the Financial Times report does not specify the exact nature of the U.K.’s contribution to the F-47, it suggests that British intellectual property or licensed technology—possibly related to radar-absorbing materials or electronic countermeasures—could be at risk of being withheld. This possibility has thrust the jet into the center of a transatlantic standoff.”
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2025/04/04/trump-tariffs-spark-rift-over-boeings-next-gen-f-47-plane/
CNBC: Tariffs will drive up the cost of airplanes, the United States’ star export
> Tariffs would drive up costs of key aerospace parts, making it more expensive for Boeing and even foreign companies with U.S. factories to produce planes.
> Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu said in a note Thursday that a price jump on “any product within 12 months is eaten by the [original equipment manager], assuming new inventory buy. Outside that time period, ultimately the buyer and hence consumer.”
Prices for planes are negotiated in advance, and airlines have to often wait years for aircraft, so material costs can shift dramatically over that period.
> Shares of Boeing, engine maker GE and airlines tumbled again Friday, adding to the market rout after Trump announced the tariffs Wednesday.
“This is the one manufacturing sector where America has, has enjoyed a tremendous trade surplus,” said Richard Aboulafia, managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory. “So the idea of fighting a trade war for this industry, it’s living in a crystal palace hurling giant boulders.”
===========
From another site:
Collins and BCA are the top two importers of aviation parts (37% of total)
===========
Hey BCA and GE
I heard “America can build _____” numerous times here, why don’t you make everything yourself in America??
“Colombia opts for Swedish Gripen over F-16 in defense overhaul”
“The choice of the Gripen, a modern multirole fighter, over competing options like the American F-16 or the French Rafale, has sparked curiosity about the geopolitical and operational implications for this South American nation.”
“These aircraft give Venezuela a formidable edge in the air, a reality that Bogotá cannot ignore given the two nations’ fraught history, including border disputes and ideological clashes. The Gripen E/F, while lighter and less heavily armed than the Su-30, offers Colombia a modern counterweight, capable of engaging threats at long range and maintaining air superiority over its territory.
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2025/04/03/petro-opts-for-swedish-gripen-over-f-16-in-defense-overhaul/
https://theaviationist.com/2025/04/03/colombia-selects-gripen/
Makes for some interesting aspects when they are not making enough new parts for the NEO let alone the CEO. All going into production.
https://archive.ph/MYAT5
what happen to MAGA for stock traders on wall street
https://www.startribune.com/dow-plunges-2000-as-sell-off-for-markets-slams-into-a-scarier-gear-following-trumps-tariffs/601321550
You don’t get, MAGA do not buy stocks.
Frankly most people do not buy stocks. We got out of ours when I saw who won the election. If anyone can wreck the economy its that Moron.
Its the Repubs in the 10% and under Red districts that are sweating bullets. That could extend to 15% red districts.
Its not the stock market, its their prices keep going up.
You are right – there is a percent of the population that have no clue on how the market works and prefer to keep their money in the mattress, instead.
But what will happen to them, is that the companies they work for, will scale back on production, expansion and investment. Workers will be furloughed and jobs will be lost.
They will understand that.
On trying to bring back jobs to the US.
Corporations will not invest, during uncertain and changing times. They like steady, constant circumstances to make large financial decision, such as investments.
The current regime is anything but that.
As well, Donnie let the cat out of the bag, recently. He said that he is ‘Negotiating with Viet Nam, to get them to buy more US stuff’ and remove their tariffs.
Well – if you are a US company, who makes apparel, which is one of the major products coming out of Viet Nam, you would only invest millions of dollars into a new plant, machinery and workers, if you knew that those tariffs would remain in place, for the long-term, protecting your investment.
Otherwise, if they come off, someone who just imports from Viet Nam is in a much better position, not having spent millions to get make domestic products at an increased price.
Just the way it is…
Expect to pay $3500 for an iPhone if it’s made in the US, versus $1000 if it’s made in China.
Very few industries will be tempted to re-shore from Asia, Africa or Latin America to the US — it would destroy their competitivity.
You kidding me?
I’m hanging onto my older phone, my older car, my older….everything.
This is no time to be making investments into anything. New car, new house? Nope. You sit tight and hold onto your liquidity.
Do NOT try and catch that falling knife.
Secretary of Commerce floats the idea that Apple should make their phones in America using robots. Has he talked with Cook beforehand?
He changed his mind & his tune 😂
> “the army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little screws to make iphones, that kind of thing is going to come to america.” – secretary of commerce
=========
How many parents are going to be proud that finally their kids can now making a living by screwing in little screws? “Make America Great.. Again” under Trump 2.0
> Frankly most people do not buy stocks.
Yeah what exactly do people hold in their 401k?
[Scratching my head]
From the AW article I linked today below
• Management of Allegiant Air believes:
Stagflation is “maybe the baseline scenario, [w]e’re doing a lot of things that are highly inflationary at the same time that we’re also doing some stuff that is going to be recessionary.”
• consumer confidence is weakening on both sides of the border
@ DP
Not just stock traders — also ordinary Americans.
Many/most US-ians have a 401(k) account — which will have been decimated in the past few days.
Then, you have people/companies with equity-backed mortgages/loans — many of those will now be below water.
Also, very wealthy individuals with large equity portfolios will have suffered a major hit — which will manifest itself in less high-end spending, with a knock-on effect on Main Street. Those individuals will also be spending less on VC an philantropy.
All in all, US equitiy markets have seen trillions of dollars evaporate in just 2 days.
The repricing will take awhile. All previous assumptions have to be reevaluated. The US-led economic system after WWII is not only abandoned, it is ripped into pieces.
Exclusive: Aircraft supplier Howmet may halt orders if hit by Trump tariffs, letter says
“Howmet said in the letter to customers that it has declared a force majeure event, a legal practice that allows parties to a contract to avoid their obligations if hit by unavoidable and unpredictable external circumstances.”
“Howmet will be excused from supplying any products or services that are impacted by this declared national emergency and/or the tariff executive order,” Howmet wrote in the letter.”
All that means is they are out from under contract obligations.
They just revise the prices. The contract will specifically address Tariffs as a now know aspect.
My prediction is they get rolled back Monday.
Interesting Tariffs on non occupied Islands in the AntArtic but none his good Friends in North Korea and Russia.
Hahahahaha 😅
@ DP
I think we’ll be seeing a lot of parties invoking Force Majeure in the coming days — e.g. airlines who don’t feel inclined to suddenly pay 10-25% more for an aircraft. Of course, the first avenue will be to try to defer the order through polite negotiation — but, if all else fails, then they can fall back upon Force Majeure.
The interesting situation will be regarding spare parts, because they’ll be needed regardless of price. In that case, airlines will probably just have to stomach the extra costs and try to pass them on to passengers.
Hi David & Abalone,
BA thought they are safe because they have prices lock-in. The one-sided contracts forced upon the suppliers now don’t worth the paper they’re printed on. The table has turned now, BA is much weaker than, say, a decade ago.
No wonder BA stonk broke thru 52 week low.
Those tariffs-loving, wishful thinking get what they wished for, wholesale destruction everywhere. It won’t be recognizable after this.
Once the floodgate is open…
> WOW.
Howmet Aerospace has declared force majeure in the wake of Trump’s tariffs…
https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1908511766235017557
“Boeing Stock Sinks to 2 1/2-Year Low Amid Trump Tariff-Fueled Sell-off”
“Boeing is a company that could be affected by both sides of the trade war, as the plane maker sources parts from around the world, manufactures its aircraft in the U.S., and exports them to airlines around the world, including in China.”
“Boeing shares were down nearly 9% at $137.60 in recent trading. Earlier in Friday’s session, they hit $132.79, their lowest intraday point since October 2022.”
“The tariffs could have a negative impact both ways, as Boeing bills itself as the “largest customer of China’s aviation manufacturing industry.” The company said last year that it spends $1.5 billion in China on parts, research and development, and other projects, and said some 10,000 of its planes currently have Chinese parts in them.
“That means Boeing’s U.S.-built planes will likely be more expensive to make, while they also face lower profit margins selling them to countries like China. Investors will likely be looking for insight into the effect of tariffs when Boeing reports earnings on April 23.”
https://www.investopedia.com/boeing-stock-sinks-to-2-year-low-amid-trump-tariff-fueled-sell-off-11709085
34% more expensive to acquire, as reciprocal tariffs kick in.
BA is going to get hit on the supply as well as the demand side of things.
I think we’re going to see more airlines sending aircraft in for another heavy maintenance check and extend them another 6-7 years of useful life.
Lower oil prices will help, in that regard.
Wasn’t BA quite confident that tariffs won’t have much impact on them until recently? The truth is out there.
WSJ: Boeing CEO Worries That Trade War Could Hurt Its Exports
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trump-tariffs-trade-war-stock-market-04-02-2025/card/boeing-ceo-worries-that-trade-war-could-hurt-its-exports-Vqe2Y9mQniNJpAirgTxa
Here’s another point, from AW:
‘To be clear, OEMs and Tier 1s are more sanguine about tariffs for the moment. They sit on mountains of built-up inventory from pandemic-era backups, and of course, as the customers of subtier suppliers they get to call the shots, as well as rely on their enormous financial resources to muddle through. ‘
You know who doesn’t have enormous financial resources?
Spirit.
What a time to attempt a merger.
I think this is relevant and not covered here, although the article is about auto production:
> … President Trump’s tariffs may end up changing [the US]’s investment appeal for foreign companies.
“The way these tariffs provide their incentives, they’re going to discourage foreign countries from investing in the US. So not only are we going to see all those effects from the increased cost on consumers, I expect also, long-term, if they stay in place, that we’re going to see less investment in.. Tennessee.
~ From wkrn
That’s in addition to other existing (and increasing) impediments to investment, such as lack of skilled workers, higher labor costs compared to other countries, lack of up-to-date infrastructure, etc.
Remember: the big-ticket “investments” recently announced by Apple, TSMC, etc., are just expressions of intent — there’s no actual meat on the bone, as yet. Just flattering Donnie with vague promises to get him off one’s back…
“Investment” by Apple is pretty much what Apple usually spends in say R&D in US, plus some Capex (supposedly data centers for their AI roll-out – but development of the much-touted Apple AI is significantly behind) and even TV production!
Tim Apple just gave Donnie a nice, big round-number fig leaf to cover.
MSFT, otoh, dialed back its data center investments. Is the AI bubble over?
https://theaircurrent.com/industry-strategy/trump-tariff-aerospace-airlines-mercantilism-zeihan-787/
My thoughts:
A newly deglobalized world, as envisioned by Donnie & Co (yeah there’s a cohort that supports & acts as cheerleaders all the way, including a handful or so providing “academic” cover), needs less not more international travel!
Bad news for, oops, the one that has significant investment in a yet certified VLA & freighter.
Market of NB will br increasingly fractured. Well don’t point finger at others, this is the result of a made-in-America crisis directed none other by the POTUS! Americans are mad (pretty much for no good reason), start throwing stones at others while living in a glass house. They would rather burn down the house to cook a steak, I kid you not.
Think of who is in the best position to build from the ground up.. that’s where the future lies.
Sorry
providing “intellectual”* cover
From AW: This is what happens what tariffs are imposed in a wanton way, no planning and no one has a clue how to implement because it’s dictated top-down. Has America become an authoritarian state now?
> Weissel told a Bloomberg Intelligence webinar March 24 that *U.S. Customs and Border Protection have stopped inbound aviation shipments and struggled with applying tariffs* that include determining U.S. content and how much aluminum content there is and where did it originate.
“Multiple major suppliers have set up war rooms to try to analyze and plan to deal with tariff issues,” according to Weissel. In turn, they are warning suppliers that price renegotiations could be coming. “We are really starting to see that real world starting to happen,” he says.
> Bloomberg analyst George Ferguson outlined how it is in new parts from lower-tier suppliers that tariff effects really would start to bite, in part because the ability to alter the supply chain is laborious.
Where are the analysts that believe BA is a good buy because of its order backlog??
are we forgetting to include Comac in the conversation?
“China said Friday that it will impose reciprocal 34% tariffs on all imports from the United States from April 10”
what about US content for the C919 Do the engines ship from the US or France?
https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/3r69ac/c919_more_us_than_chinese_diagram_showing_source/?rdt=40194
Remember that, behind the scenes, collected tariffs can be repaid to selected importers.
I imagine that quite a lot of that will be going on, in various countries.
For example, if the EU puts a 20% retaliatory blanket tariff on the US, then the EU can collect that tariff on oil and gas imports, and then repay it to the importers involved.
This allows a more dramatic blanket tariff to be announced, with behind-the-scenes tweaking to avoid self-harm.
China can do the same for key industries, such as aviation, semiconductors, etc.
Unlike the US — whose goal is to collect tariff income — the principal goal of other countries will be to inflict as much misery as possible on the US…so expenditure of actual tariff monies themselves will be of subordinate importance.
Well – to be fair, Donnie did have to hand out $25bn in welfare to farmers, after they lost all that business in China, when it got soybeans supplied by Brazil.
Funny…most of them voted for him again, anyways.
Indeed.
But he won’t be doing that this time around, because:
– He needs all that tariff income to fund tax breaks for the 1%;
– There’ll be no welfare mechanism left by the time DOGE’s rampage is complete.
Nevertheless, you can be sure that a whole line of CEO’s is on the phone to him asking for exemptions…and Ortberg is probably among them.
Didn’t BA openly support the GOP in the run-up to the November election?
And Ortberg directed BA to donate $1M to Donnie’s inauguration…
I think that was Delta
@ FP
“Boeing Gives $1 Million to Trump Inauguration, Matching 2017”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-gives-1-million-trump-221528340.html
It worked out so well for all of them:
Hyundai, Stellantis, Delta each donating $1 million to Trump inaugural fund
https://www.reuters.com/business/hyundai-stellantis-delta-each-donating-1-million-trump-inaugural-fund-2025-01-14/
You think they should ask for it back?
(BTW – I missed/forgot that BA gave. Thanks for the reminder)
Well the German elites thought they could play and control Hitler.
We know how that turned out.
From AW Mar 26
Airbus Reports Airliner Supply Chain Improvements
No doubt it’d would take time for the supply chain improvements to reflect in delivery.
China hits back at US tariffs with export controls on key rare earths
“Two industry sources said Chinese export restrictions on some rare earths are a concern for some U.S. aerospace manufacturers because they are sole-sourced from China for use in avionics.”
“Beijing has already imposed outright bans on the export of three metals to the U.S. and slapped export controls on many others.”
“…It also imposed restrictions on the export of certain rare-earth elements, specifically medium and heavy rare-earth metals like samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium, to the United States, effective immediately.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/china/china-trump-tariffs-rare-earths-trade-war-b2727424.html
It’s actually a whole list of rare earth metals.
And Wall Street futures just opened, with another stock rout expected on April 7.
Donnie has unleashed total mayhem, and he doesn’t seem to grasp that, care about it, or have any idea how to control it.
there is a simple solution, Congress can do their job and stop this madness
at 6:30pm Sunday
“Dow futures fall 1,500 points Sunday as Trump tariff market rout escalates”
Sounds great. What a plan!
If the market went down 10% in two days is not enough, how about down 10% in one day?
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1909034677727272997
The question you have to ask yourself is:
Is this the ‘baking in’ of all expected reciprocal tariffs or is there more to come, when the EU, UK et al. hit the US with the response?
The EU is currently putting the finishing touches to its response. It’s expected to be finalized this evening (Monday) and to be announced tomorrow.
The UK is in a similar process.
@Abalone
Why bother, just yet. The market is doing all the work, for them.
Save it, for now….
We’re in the process of “discovery”.
Repeat after me:
“China has 39 universities with programs to train engineers and researchers for the rare earths industry. Universities in the US and Europe offer occasional courses.”
Universities in America would rather train more lawyers, MBA & EMBA, don’t you think so? Because that’s what the “market” wants.
““They are coming to the table. They want to talk but there’s no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis,” Trump said.”
Looks like a depression is on its way. Its time for the congress to grow a backbone and stop this economic collapse Summary of Trump promises
summary 8/9/24
“Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods.”
8/14/24
“Under my administration, we will be slashing energy and electricity prices by half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months”
“Prices will come down. You just watch: They’ll come down, and they’ll come down fast, not only with insurance, with everything.”
8/17/24
“Under my administration, we will be slashing energy and electricity prices by half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months”
“Prices will come down. You just watch: They’ll come down, and they’ll come down fast, not only with insurance, with everything.”
9/29/24
“Under my administration, we will be slashing energy and electricity prices by half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months”
“Prices will come down. You just watch: They’ll come down, and they’ll come down fast, not only with insurance, with everything.”
1/7/25
“We’re going to have prices down- I think you’re going to see some pretty drastic price reductions.”
Plus:
He said he’d end the war in Ukraine in just a day:
https://apnews.com/article/trump-russia-ukraine-war-un-election-a78ecb843af452b8dda1d52d137ca893
Don’t know if anyone is up early, watching this, but the meltdown is still going strong.
Boeing is down to $130.
The smart money got out of the market and is staying out. Everything is down 4% in a market sell-off, in early trading.
The DOW is down to 36,800, off 1,500 already.
Without anyone mentioning reciprocal tariffs, yet….
I was up at 8:00 a.m. CET.
There was a 10-12% meltdown in Asian stock indices during the night, and Europe opened deeply red, but has recovered somewhat as bargain hunters swooped in.
Spreads are larger than normal, and volatility is very high.
Trading in some stocks was halted briefly as automatic circuit breakers kicked in.
The yield on the 10-year treasury is up again, which points to dumping — probably by foreign holders.
One wonders if Donnie and crew secretly bought masses of put options (or wrote call contracts) on April 1, before this chaos was unleashed upon the world.
Better escape to safe haven the proper, than subject to the mad king.
I read today:
> Why would we lend the Americans money to buy our stuff and/or defend us instead of using that money to give our people that money to buy our stuff and/or to build stuff to defend ourselves is the Eureka moment of global rebalancing.
Larry Fink says most CEOs he talks to think U.S. is in a recession
> “Most CEOs I talk to would say we are probably in a recession right now,” Fink said.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2025/04/07/larry-fink-says-most-ceos-he-talks-to-think-us-is-in-a-recession/
Cut discretionary spending, postpone or cut capex.
pick a number
“Goldman Sachs raises odds of US recession to 45%, second hike in a week”
“Global brokerages raise recession odds; J.P.Morgan sees 60% chance”
here is a hint…we are already in a recession…
Today I read (for no particular reason):
> Diamant Skiing is a startup that manufactures its products in Vietnam. The owner says if nothing changes, the company is facing a nearly $100K tariff bill ‘that would put us out of business.’
==============
How dare the owner started their business without setting up their own factory (TBH how many fewer startups it would be).
> When you see stuff like this, it’s like, what do people mean when they say that the tariff announcement has put the US in a position of maximum leverage?
>> Small businesses owners on Reddit already getting clobbered by tariffs, with commenters talking about how they will evaporate US manufacturing.
https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1909588818040156181
> “I’ve talked to two different people who’ve had to pause their build out of factories because of the tariffs because the machines they were going to buy are too expensive now.” – @typesfast
Yea, I guess we could escape to Ukraine or find a nice Island in the East Asian Sea!
You might want to ask the folks in Hong Kong how well being integrated into the New Chinese Empire is going.
Go east! Lol and escape the tariff regime! You can even have free health care 😭
TW Hehe You know I’ve this quote ready – just in case.
“True ignorance approaches the infinite more nearly than any amount of knowledge can do.”
Are you the one that predict the end of Cathay? Seems they are quite alright and making good money. Oh they also ordered a bunch of Airbus, don’t you know?
NYTimes: There are two million Taiwanese working and living in China
How do Taiwanese living in China feel?
> Newbies coming to China from Taiwan spend the first few years trying to educate their family and friends in Taiwan about what China’s really like, and most are dismissed as having been “brainwashed”.
Too bad many like you not only know very little, they also have a misguided view that’s like twenty years behind reality. That’s how the war is lost, very very badly.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GkwacWqX0AAqSUI?format=jpg&name=medium
Did you see what happened?
Someone came out with a rumour that the WH was going to pause tariffs. Just long enough for the markets to shoot up.
Then the WH denial came out.
Now it’s starting to slide back down, not as fast as this morning – as if some are hoping for an announcement that the tariff hold is real.
Someone is really playing with the market, here…
Welcome back to the era of “administration by Tweet”.
I really hope that the SEC is vigilantly monitoring for market manipulation.
On the other hand, the acting head of the SEC is a Trump pick…🙈
https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025-29
Frank P:
Someone is playing with the economy and if you expect anything but total corruption from the White House, well you got a serious beating ahead of you.
If we are lucky he blows a gasket, in the meantime he plays golf while Musk and Vance wreck the system.
No clean-sheet aircraft for awhile
Mar 25
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-sets-stall-ahead-plane-152325248.html
just wait until to Friday to see what your 201K balance will be
Trump threatens new 50% tariffs on China
“Donald Trump has threatened China with an extra tariff of 50% on goods imported into the US if it does not withdraw a countermeasure it announced on Friday”
“If he does impose the additional 50%, US companies will pay a total rate of 104% on Chinese imports.”
When it happens, wonder when there will be empty shelves at Walmart based on importing less
I moved mine into all cash type holdings after the election.
Clearly a 2nd term was going to be worse than the first and the first was really bad.
My financial guy was not happy but if I need the money its there (well until the total melt down and then I have a case of beans on hand)
Good time to get the heart issues dealt with, Medicare may not be there soon as well.
Oh dear…things are going rapidly downhill: bad news for US companies looking to raise cash via bond issuance.
“US credit spreads continue to widen, no new bonds announced”
“(Reuters) -No new offerings were announced in the U.S. investment-grade and high-yield bond markets for the third consecutive day as credit spreads, or the cost of issuance, continued to increase on worries that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff war could lead to a recession.
“Since Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on U.S. imports on Wednesday, credit spreads, which are the premium companies paid on bonds over Treasuries, have widened sharply to two-year lows.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-credit-spreads-continue-widen-141105156.html
Aerospace firms scour contracts over tariffs after supplier challenge
“Lessors, who rent to airlines and make up half the world’s fleet, are also scrambling to analyze the implications.”
“Lessors, who rent to airlines and make up half the world’s fleet, are also scrambling to analyze the implications.”
Tells you everything you have to know
Report:
> F/A-XX Will Have Just* 25% More Range Over Existing Navy Fighters
Emphasis added
China condemns JD Vance’s ‘peasants’ jibe
“China on Tuesday branded U.S. Vice President JD Vance ignorant and disrespectful after he claimed that America was borrowing money from “Chinese peasants.”
Maybe China should sell off their US treasuries and take their money to EU
“Maybe China should sell off their US treasuries”
Already happening…
“Ten-year yields shot from an overnight low of 3.87% to touch 4.216% in the Asian day. Market participants said the scale of moves and uncertainty in Fed funds futures trade was unprecedented, as pricing for 130 basis points of U.S. rate cuts this year collapsed to 92 bps in a matter of hours.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sudden-selloff-shakes-us-bond-095659046.html
—
“The historic selloff lifted yields across all maturities by at least 20 basis points during the session, with those on 30-year bonds higher by nearly 23 basis points in late trading — set for the biggest one-day increase since March 2020.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-bonds-stumble-traders-debate-144943042.html
There must be something in the air.
FT: UK wealth managers say American clients are moving money to Britain
What do they know? What do they fear?
An admin which derides trade (movement of goods) can also impose capital control.
we will find out soon enough on what China response will be to this
“President Donald Trump is set to impose an astounding 104% in levies across all Chinese imports on Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced on Tuesday. This comes on top of Chinese tariffs that were in place prior to Trump’s second term.”
“China was already set to see tariffs increase by 34% on Wednesday as part of Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs package. But the president tacked on another 50% after Beijing didn’t back off its promise to impose 34% retaliatory tariffs on US goods by noon Tuesday, adding an additional 84% in duties”
When the republican’s lose big in the mid term, they will have no one but themselves to blame
As you have asked on numerous occasions in the past: “Why would anyone bother to trade any more with the US?”
There are alternative suppliers/markets for essentially everything that the US produces/consumes.
from The Telegraph
The nuclear option China could take in trade war with the US
“If China embarked on a mass sale of its US treasuries, the value of the debt would plunge and yields would soar. This would drive up US government borrowing costs and hammer the public finances in a highly destabilizing move.”
“Robin Brooks, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, says the real figure is even higher – likely around $1 trillion – after accounting for the unknown sums that China holds via custody accounts in Europe.”
“The Chinese state and its banks own around $3 trillion in dollar assets.”
“If China started selling, it would trigger a plunge in dollar values, immediately hammering the value of all of its remaining dollar holdings”
China has been engaged in trickle selling for years…slowly, so as not to rock the boat.
As a result, it has already essentially halved its holdings of treasuries.
However, with US investors now flocking to “safe” treasuries in the midst of the stock market rout, China now has willing buyers for larger volumes of its treasury holdings. Hence the vigorous bond market movements that I referenced above.
Interesting times…🙈
“New Country Begins Ditching US Dollar, Accumulates Gold in Central Bank”
“It’s no longer the Asian countries that are aggressively accumulating gold in their central banks and ending reliance on the US dollar. A new European country joined the league to become the biggest buyer of gold last month diversifying its assets in the central bank and not giving foremost importance to the US dollar. If European countries start the trend of diversification in central banks, it could cause major financial havoc in the US.”
“The new European country to accumulate tonnes of gold in their reserves and sideline the US dollar is Poland. Poland’s central bank brought 16 tonnes of gold last month making it the biggest buyer of the precious metal in March. It even raced ahead of China, India, Russia, and Brazil who were actively accumulating the glittery metal since 2022.”
https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/59f90-new-country-begins-ditching-us-dollar-accumulates-gold-in-central-bank
Poland = US vassal. Wouldn’t make too much of that one.
Germany is looking to repatriate 1,200-ton of gold. You can’t trust the mad king.
CNBC: “For decades, Germany has stored around 1,200 tonnes of its gold—about 30% of its total reserves—deep within the vaults of the US Federal Reserve..
from Forbes April 8th article
“More than $10 billion. That’s how much Trump’s top 10 billionaire donors lost in the stock market on Thursday alone, as stocks plunged in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s Wednesday tariff announcement. That’s only a fraction of the $270 billion in total that was wiped off the net worth’s of the world’s billionaires on Thursday, Forbes calculated, with Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Amazon chief Jeff Bezos, Oracle founder Larry Ellison and Musk among those who were the hardest hit.”
Remember they financially supported Trump Reelection. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of guys!
Yep, you dance with the devil and you wind up in Hades
Nine circles of hell – we’re in early innings
For now Boeing is improving but its also set in larger market blow down so the backlog disappears next
https://archive.ph/r0M8w
The good news is Boeing does not have to lay off people or cut production, its as low as it can be managed right now.
163 net orders in March, including 53 787’s.
Nice improvement indeed.
400 777F’s now sold as well, also a tremendous success for the program, clearance sales or not .
of the 163 orders how many are from US airlines?
Your point being ??
any new orders outside the US is at best putting a placeholder in. Will they be delivered in the next 5 -10 years?
@ David Pritchard
Interestingly, there were 192 gross BA orders in March — but also 29 cancellations.
5 orders were from FedEx.
Apart from that, all the identified customers came from Singapore, Japan and Korea.
Unidentified orders: 21 MAX, 20 777X and 33 787. The 777X were almost certainly non-US, and US carriers are also saturated as regards 787 orders.
So, it looks to be (very) predominantly non-US.
It will be interesting to see what April brings — being the first month of the full-scale trade war.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-deliveries-march-jump-41-150436613.html
Airlines are withdrawing their full-year financial forecasts. We’re in early innings. Wake me up when the rug is pulled.
I wonder if BA/BCA is smart enough to insert tariff clause(s) into their contracts. But hey, didn’t BA/BCA talk like they are exempted from the trade war?
West made some noise about having enough inventory to ride things out. That and the backlog…
Ryanair CEO Says Boeing Executive Downplayed Aircraft Tariff Threat
> Ryanair’s boss is confident that commercial jets will not be sucked into trade tensions between the United States and other trade powers, including Europe, after a meeting with a top Boeing executive.
Michael O’Leary, CEO of the European budget airline, said he had met Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Stephanie Pope earlier this week and the signs were that U.S. President Donald Trump would be supportive of Boeing, barring any repeat of high-profile safety incidents.
> Speaking later to a conference hosted by the A4E European airline industry association, he said: “I met with Boeing and they don’t believe there will be tariffs on aircraft or parts”.
Delta drops outlook for 2025 and says growth has stalled in trade war
“Delta has pulled its 2025 guidance as the trade war scrambles expectations and said it will reduce capacity given economic conditions”
“This includes reducing planned capacity growth in the second half of the year to flat over last year while actively managing costs and capital expenditures.”
Ditto Walmart. There’s no escape from the man-made war.
“Delta CEO warns Trump tariffs are already threatening the $300 billion revenge travel market: ‘We’re acting as if we’re going into a recession’”
Dramatic sell-off of US government bonds as tariff war panic deepens
“Falling demand suggests loss of financial confidence in US as Donald Trump escalates trade standoff with China”
““This is a fire sale of Treasuries,” said Calvin Yeoh, portfolio manager at the hedge fund Blue Edge Advisors. “I haven’t seen moves or volatility of this size since the chaos of the pandemic in 2020,” he told Bloomberg.”
Great business opportunity – future of US manufacturing!
How soon you can start up a plant to make Christmas decorations in US? Who steal the Christmas?
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/09/has-trump-cancelled-christmas-chinas-decorations-makers-report-no-us-orders.html
Qatar has dumped an order for 25 MAXs…probably the MAX-10, which it previously said no longer fit in its fleet plans.
It may have dropped them as a set-off against another Boeing type — e.g. more 777X and/or 787, of which several were ordered in March by undisclosed customers.
https://www.scramble.nl/civil-news/boeing-march-2025-orders-deliveries
American, especially those detached from reality, have a crude awakening about “supply chain”. US manufacturer begs for tariffs exemption. You can’t make this up.
> Breaking – Haas reduces production of CNC machines, eliminates overtime, halts hiring, citing “dramatic decrease in demand” and concerns about reduced tariffs on Asian machines. Asks the administration for tariff exemptions on imported machine components and raw materials.
https://x.com/peteoxenham/status/1909751767610654795
Fox news found out the truth.
> Fox News tells a story a small business owner who used to pay $26,000 in tariffs on goods imported from China, but now faces a $346,000 tariff due to Trump’s new 104% tariff on Chinese imports.
“We think that China is gonna have to pay for it. A special needs toy importer– when the tariff went into effect, his tariff bill went from $26,000 at midnight to $346,000. And that’s money that’s got to have to come out of his pocket… They think foreign countries have to pay the tariff, that’s not true. Tariffs are being paid by Americans.”
https://x.com/Ronxyz00/status/1909923574972105114
It seems that Donnie followers will believe everything he says – right up until the time that they have to cut the check, to pay for tariffs.
Or they get their job cut, because of Elon.
Or their spouse gets deported, back to the country they were born in.
Or when they see their 401k drop like a rock.
Even then, of course – some will try to deflect accountability and blame some other party. This is what they voted for…
> “Capital and intermediate goods make up around 43% of total imports from China, meaning “there is the perverse possibility that if those goods do not come into the US, it may slow down manufacturing in the US, and it may mean a loss of jobs in the short run,” said Olu Sonola, head of US economic research at Fitch Ratings.”
https://x.com/greg_ip/status/1910162259021554003
Doesn’t bode well – the Vietnam War went from 1965 to 1970s
> Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose My latest. Escalation with China will be Trump’s economic equivalent of the Vietnam War. The US will lose bigly.
https://foreignaffairs.com/united-states/trade-wars-are-easy-lose
https://x.com/AdamPosen/status/1910081053244432697
„It is China that has escalation dominance in this trade war. The United States gets vital goods from China that cannot be replaced anytime soon or made at home at anything less than prohibitive cost. Reducing such dependence on China may be a reason for action, but fighting the current war before doing so is a recipe for almost certain defeat, at enormous cost. Or to put it in Bessent’s terms: Washington, not Beijing, is betting all in on a losing hand.”
“U.S. President Donald Trump said overnight that global leaders are willing to do anything to make a trade deal with him as American tariffs come into force.
“I am telling you, these countries are calling us up, kissing my ass,” Trump said during a speech at the National Republican Congressional Committee Dinner in Washington”
As for China, its kicking not kissing
U.S. Treasury Bonds Sell Off as 30-Year Yield Rises Most Since 1982
“The selloff in U.S. government bonds gathered speed on Wednesday, with the 30-year Treasury yield set to rise the most in more than 40 years as a paradigm shift in trade policy upends the bond market.”
FT: US Treasuries sell-off deepens as ‘safe haven’ status challenged
> “The sell-off may be signalling a regime shift whereby US Treasuries are no longer the global fixed-income safe haven,” said Ben Wiltshire, a rates strategist at Citi.
=========
Trump:
> “We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, ‘Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.’
=========
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” Vladimir Ilyich Linen
Yea the Snake Oil guy has been spewing that stuff for two terms now.
What its about is not what its about.
He made public free to be White Nationalists again.
He won on people inability (stupidity) on the economy. No one can just fix it, but just enough voted on that issue. Well we get what they voted for.
Given his choice, we would be back to the Antebellum days. If people actually came out to vote, it would not have happened.
U.S. 30-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS RISE TO 4.90%, UP 51 BPS FOR WEEK IN BIGGEST INCREASE SINCE AT LEAST 2000
Delta says told Airbus won’t pay tariffs on new aircraft
““But the one thing that you need to know we’re very clear on is that we will not be paying” tariffs on any aircraft deliveries we take, Delta added.”
Well it’s up to Delta to decide if they want to cut their losses and pay 10% tariffs before it goes back up or wait like four years (or more). Delta has certainly made PDPs to Airbus and it can be a drag in longer run if Delta postpones their deliveries.
“Delta Will Defer Delivery of Tariffed Aircraft”
“Delta CEO Ed Bastian said Wednesday that the carrier will defer new aircraft that are impacted by tariffs. The Atlanta-based airline expects to receive a handful of new aircraft deliveries this year, all of which are from European planemaker Airbus.”
https://airlinegeeks.com/2025/04/09/delta-will-defer-delivery-of-tariffed-aircraft/#
I believe Delta has like 43 aircraft to be delivered in 2025, all from AB, incl. 10 x A220, 21 x A321neo.
Airbus announced weeks ago that, in response to tariffs, it would prioritize non-US deliveries.
So all those planes will be going elsewhere.
I imagine, for example, that Qatar will be delighted to take those A321neos.
And Emirates will be very happy with any A350 slots that can get shifted its way.
We can assume that other US carriers will similarly be deferring deliveries.
Good news for Air India, for example — less wait for its ordered planes
How likely are someone in the know front-run the market?
Timing!
8:55: *BESSENT: CHINA ARE ONLY COUNTRY THAT’S ESCALATED ON TRADE
9:01: *EU ADOPTS TARIFFS ON €21 BILLION OF US GOODS IN METALS DISPUTE
Well a cutoff date sure gets the buyers going!
https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/boeing-reports-orders-for-11-777fs-in-march/1079934.article
777X is doing brake testing now. Hopefully progress on that bird.
Gotta love this ..
Euro’s putting a positive take on this .
Okay now what if United, Spirit, American, Frontier,and Jet Blue all follow suit..No tariffs for you either.
Yeah, who needs those yanks anyway.😆
C’mon Alabamie, it’s all up to you now to deliver.
Grab your popcorn 🍿..
This is gonna be epic.
Boeing is in a far worse spot, then Airbus
https://leehamnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Tariff-Analysis-protected.jpg
Over the next 4 years, according to Cirium, Airbus has 793 aircraft (some of which will come from Mobile) to deliver to US carriers.
Only 44 of them cannot be made in Mobile.
Boeing, on the other hand, have 2,170 aircraft to deliver to carriers outside the US.
Lots of moving parts, still to figure out. It is going to get ugly…
Don’t forget: the aluminium and steel tariffs are in effect, and they detrimentally affect all BA’s production. On the other hand, for AB, these tariffs only have an effect on production in Mobile — they have no effect on production in Europe, China or Canada.
for the sake of variety
New video of China’s tailless, triple-engine fighter jet has military aviation community buzzing
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/08/asia/china-new-stealth-fighter-jet-pictures-intl-hnk-ml/index.html?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc
based on the location of the pic for J36, certainly not hiding it
“The video reveals a large, tailless flying wing platform with a distinctive trijet configuration—an unusual feature in modern fighter designs. The aircraft’s silhouette features a modified delta wing with deep forward cutouts extending toward the nose, paired with a voluminous fuselage that hints at expanded internal fuel and weapons capacity.”
“Observers have noted the resemblance of the aircraft’s lower fuselage to the J-20, China’s current frontline stealth fighter, although the J-36 is markedly larger. The upper fuselage features a dorsal-mounted air intake positioned just behind the cockpit canopy—a configuration rarely seen on operational combat aircraft. Analysts suggest this design may improve stealth characteristics and allow for better airflow management in high-altitude, high-speed operations.”
“The overall shape indicates a platform focused on endurance, payload, and low observability—key features for a long-range tactical or strategic combat aircraft designed to operate in contested airspace.”
https://defence-blog.com/first-clear-look-at-chinas-new-heavy-tactical-jet/
It’s a strategic defensive aircraft for the next decade. Certainly they’re looking ahead.
Hmm when are we going to see the Boeing F-47 flying in public?
PS There’s another one also flying.
Well, after more than 10 years, the brakes on the 777X are finally undergoing certification testing 😅
So, seeing as there isn’t even an engine — or a prototype — for the F-47, I wouldn’t hold my breath 👀
Another operator/country gets added to the COMAC list:
“VietJet to add two wet-leased Chinese COMAC ARJ21 aircraft”
“VietJet, Vietnam’s leading low-cost carrier, is set to become the first Vietnamese airline to operate Chinese-manufactured COMAC ARJ21-700 jets on domestic routes. The milestone deployment is scheduled to begin in mid-April 2025.”
https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/vietjet-to-add-two-wet-leased-chinese-comac-arj21-aircraft
Wow
> Changes to #DCA air traffic control: the district manager and two assistant managers have been reassigned following a violent altercation in the tower a week ago.
https://bsky.app/profile/byerussell.com/post/3lmhgsxgkws2f
This Billionaire At Trump’s Inauguration Is Losing The Most Money
The four megacap tech founders and CEOs who went to the inauguration lost a collective $64.6 billion since Trump announced his giant tariff
“And among them, Meta Platforms’ (META) Mark Zuckerberg has lost the most: $25.9 billion.”
“Amazon.com (AMZN) founder Jeff Bezos is down $19.6 billion from the day Trump announced tariffs. And Elon Musk of Tesla (TSLA) is down $19.1 billion on just his shares of the electric carmaker.”
Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of guys
Delta Stops New Airbus A350-1000 Orders Amid Trump Tariffs
“ATLANTA- Delta Air Lines (DL) has announced a pause on new Airbus aircraft deliveries from Europe or Canada while President Trump’s tariffs remain in effect.
This decision impacts the 20 Airbus A350-1000 widebody aircraft originally scheduled for delivery from Toulouse, France (TLS) beginning in 2026.”
Last time around (during Trump 1.0), Delta had new deliveries flown to one of its foreign hubs (e.g. Amsterdam) — effectively circumventing the need to “import” them into the US…
https://www.marketplace.org/story/2020/11/20/how-delta-is-avoiding-trumps-import-tariffs
for the sake of variety
Increasing Potential for Disruptions from Likely Volcanic Eruption in US State of Alaska
“It is estimated that around 60,000 flights pass over Alaska daily, and the ash cloud could lead to many having to alter their paths and possibly lead to cancelations further afield. Ash and harmful gases may lead to school and office closures and other service disruptions in south-central Alaska.”
just a fyi
“China is home to around half of Amazon’s sellers, with over 100,000 Amazon businesses registered in the southern city of Shenzhen alone, generating annual revenues of $35.3 billion, according to e-commerce services provider SmartScout.”
Reminder, Jeff B help finance Trumps’ reelection and has taken a $19 billion hit in this stock holding. Be careful what you want!
FYI: Major EU nation turns to China as new plan with Beijing emerging to counter Trump tariffs
just a fyi
“Crucially, the importance of the U.S. market to China’s export-driven economy has declined significantly. In 2018, at the start of the first trade war, U.S.-bound exports accounted for 19.8% of China’s total exports. In 2023, that figure had fallen to 12.8%. The tariffs may further prompt China to accelerate its “domestic demand expansion” strategy, unleashing the spending power of its consumers and strengthening its domestic economy.
By 2022, the U.S. relied on China for 532 key product categories – nearly four times the level in 2000 – while China’s reliance on U.S. products was cut by half in the same period.”
FYI
> First Constellation Frigate Only 10% Complete, Design Still Being Finalized The late and over-budget Constellation class design is still in flux, with only 15% commonality with the frigate it’s based on, not 85% as planned.
https://x.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1910390832068518380
Here’s an article on that:
https://www.twz.com/sea/first-constellation-frigate-only-10-complete-design-still-being-finalized
The Constellation class was to be based on the (lauded) Franco-Italian FREMM frigate, which is in service in four different navies and soon to enter service at a fifth.
However, the Pentagon found it necessary to take a perfectly good product and make a dog’s dinner of it — no lessons learned from Littoral and Zumwalt.
Another example of defense squandering as opposed to defense spending.
MAGA!! “Mission Accomplished!”™
We build warships!
Repeat a thousand times everyday would be good enough to mesmerize
Chinese airline delays Boeing jet delivery as tariffs escalate
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/tariffs/2025/04/11/chinese-airline-delays-boeing-jet-delivery-as-tariffs-escalate/
From the link:
“The Chinese airline joins a growing list of companies on both sides of the dispute suspending the exchange of goods due to the punishing levies. Tesla Inc. has stopped taking orders in China for Model S sedans and Model X sport utility vehicles — both of which are imported from the U.S.
“Boeing has warned that an escalating trade spat could also hurt supply chains that had been severely strained ever since the pandemic and were only now showing signs of getting back to normal.”
“Trump is already slowing global trade as companies pause orders”
“Vizion Inc., a tech company that gathers supply chain data, estimates global container bookings made between April 1 and 8 dropped 49% and US imports fell 64% from the seven-day period immediately before. Bookings from China fell 36% in the same period while global container bookings for all countries fell 48% week over week.
““The ‘wait and see’ approach is one that is now playing out across millions of shipments scheduled each month,” said Kyle Henderson, Chief Executive Officer of Vizion.”
“Shipments between the US and China are likely to drop off significantly in the weeks to come after a surge in demand in air freight in recent weeks to rush products to the US ahead of tariffs. Eventually, the higher costs are likely to hit US demand for Chinese products and vice versa, leading to a slowdown in shipping on the usually busy US-China Pacific route, Warrick said.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-already-slowing-global-trade-090000989.html
—
Emptier shelves and higher prices expected in the US from May onwards…
“The hits keep coming: Dell, HP, Lenovo pause laptop shipments to U.S.
A Taiwanese newspaper reports that laptop makers are hitting the pause button.”
“A new report from Bloomberg has recently revealed that Nintendo has been sending most of its Vietnam-made Switch 2 consoles to the US since January, with over a million units shipped to the country in two months. Essentially, 100% of the Vietnamese production went to America during January, and February continued the trend, with only a fraction of the consoles being sent elsewhere”
“Right now, Vietnam has around a third of Nintendo’s production of Switch 2 consoles, with most of them still being manufactured in China, according to Bloomberg”
Who can blame them? Trump “blinked” in like a week.
=============
OTOH
“As a result of tariffs, Fastenal put in 3-4% price increases and intends to double that in 2H as new tariffs hit. So for companies that actually manufacture in the US, costs of mission critical fasteners and parts is going up dramatically while consumer electronics are exempted.”
https://x.com/modestproposal1/status/1911078780698865924
> Met another US manufacturer who’s decided to produce their product overseas where they won’t have to pay duties on component imports.
https://x.com/typesfast/status/1911088357712773238
“Bond market sell-off ‘severe’ as long-term yields notch biggest week since 1982”
“…But the sharp rise could be an unsettling fundamental shift, especially in combination with the performance of another safe haven asset: the US dollar.
“On Friday, the US Dollar Index — which measures the dollar’s value relative to a basket of currencies (the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc) — plummeted below the psychologically meaningful 100 mark, hitting its weakest point since April 2022.”
“”I do think it’s severe,” Marc Chandler, global foreign exchange chief market strategist at Bannockburn, told Yahoo Finance when asked about the sell-off in the US dollar and bond market. “People are concerned that maybe we’re seeing a capital strike against the US, where large pools of capital are selling US assets and taking their money home.”
“In other words, a possible “sell America” trade could be brewing. President Trump has taken notice.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-market-sell-off-severe-as-long-term-yields-notch-biggest-week-since-1982-170057642.html
Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from new tariffs
“The guidance also includes exclusions for other electronic devices and components, including semiconductors, solar cells, flat panel TV displays, flash drives, memory cards and solid-state drives used for storing data.
The exemptions are a win for tech companies like Apple, which makes more than 80% of its products in China. The country manufactures 80% of iPads and more than half of Mac computers produced, according to Evercore ISI.
In the days since Trump’s tariff announcement, Apple lost over $640 billion in market value”
Won’t make any difference when he implements his plan to charge million-dollar port fees to any non-US-built cargo ships visiting a US port…
but it helps his buddy from Apple, they can fly in the iPhones Donnie wants a bump in the stock market on Monday for Apple…playing games again. Or is an opening to start a dialogue with China for reducing tariffs
Who knows?
The left hand doesn’t know what the right hand is doing.
Meanwhile, Xi is having a good laugh…keeping Donnie sweating about rare earths 🙈
“Um, It Turns Out No One at the Ports Is Collecting Trump’s Tariffs
A technical “glitch” has created the biggest hiccup in Trump’s tariffs rollout.”
“Thanks to a technical glitch, Donald Trump’s tariffs haven’t even been collected at U.S. ports.
“On Friday, U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported that an entry code in the U.S. system for American ships to use to have their freight exempted from tariffs isn’t working, and “the issue is being reviewed.” As a result, no tariffs are being collected by the U.S. government for the time being.”
Aha! The tariff exemption only applies to the baseline “reciprocal” tariff applied to China — it doesn’t apply to the 20% “fentanyl tariff”, or various other tariffs.
So, there’ll still be (at least) a 20% hike in prices of electronics coming in from China.
That story will probably change again tomorrow, of course.
“The tariff reprieve does not extend to a separate Trump levy on China — a 20% duty applied to pressure Beijing to crack down on fentanyl, including the shipment of precursor materials. Other previously existing levies, including those that predate Trump’s current term, also appear unaffected.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-124707368.html
good info!
The baseline scenario is the affotdable/budget models (pc/laptop/monitor) are going to disappear from the market.
> “Nixon’s shock of 71 can help us make sense of Trump’s shock He imposed 10% import tariffs for 4 months at the same time as coming off the gold standard – which partly led to the stagflation of the 70s
> At the end of it all, Nixon’s four-month tax may have helped facilitate dollar revaluation, but it fell short of the desired goals and had no discernible impact on imports. The move’s economic shockwaves, however, rippled through the decades.
https://x.com/huwsteenis/status/1911433697582108901
> Oh, this US tariff offensive is a total bust. Ackman, one of the first of Trump’s financial generals to panic, is at it again. The Big Tech carveout on Friday night was not enough; Ackman is now pleading for a 90-day ceasefire with China. The Trumpists are negotiating with themselves, and the market. China need do nothing.
https://x.com/nicknotned/status/1911388178444869840
Today I read:
> Thank you DJT! Our youth can finally breathe easy knowing that even if they don’t gain much from our beleaguered education system, and even if they can’t afford to attend an American college, you have secured them a bright future making t-shirts that they can’t buy.
Boeing’s F-47 NGAD 6th-Generation Fighter Might Be a Big Mistake
Video J36 vs F47 Comparison
https://youtu.be/NMLsw7yd5bQ
from Seattle Times
“Boeing, its suppliers and the Seattle-area aerospace industry are in for a bumpy ride as they navigate President Donald Trump’s turbulent trade war.
Scott Hamilton, an aerospace analyst with Leeham News and Analysis, visualized the tariffs as a dark storm cloud hanging over the industry and, particularly, its key U.S. manufacturer: Boeing.
“It’s just a thunderstorm and all we’re doing is waiting for the lightning strikes,” Hamilton said.”
> The head of U.S. forces in Indo-Pacific said it took 73 C-17 flights to move one Patriot missile battalion from Asia to the Middle East.
===========
> The US Navy is deploying a third destroyer — the USS Stockdale — to the US border mission.
Until this year, the last time Navy ships deployed to US/Mexico territorial waters for any extended period of time was in 1914.
https://x.com/KToropin/status/1910803401602162845
Before it disappears behind paywall
https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/airlines-lessors/airlines-react-trump-tariffs-uncertainty-prevails
“He explained Flair was supposed to add a couple of aircraft to its fleet this year, “but ironically, it is good news [that] I actually won’t be adding any aircraft this year.” The Aviation Week Network Fleet Discovery database shows Flair has a fleet of 20 aircraft—18 Boeing 737-8s and two 737-800s—all in service.”
—
It’s not a good sign when airlines are happy with delivery delays 🙈
I wonder when we’ll start to see the first deferrals and/or outright cancellations?
Imagine WN, being stuffed by Boeing with the larger MAX 8 instead of the MAX 7 they ordered.
Perfect storm!
Things just took a turn for the worse!
What was “restriction” has now become “total halt”.
NYT today:
“China Halts Critical Exports as Trade War Intensifies”
“China has suspended exports of a wide range of critical minerals and magnets, threatening to choke off supplies of components central to automakers, aerospace manufacturers, semiconductor companies and military contractors around the world.
“Shipments of the magnets, essential for assembling everything from cars and drones to robots and missiles, have been halted at many Chinese ports while the Chinese government drafts a new regulatory system. Once in place, the new system could permanently prevent supplies from reaching certain companies, including American military contractors.
“The official crackdown is part of China’s retaliation for President Trump’s sharp increase in tariffs that started on April 2.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/business/china-rare-earths-exports.html
it gets worse
““Americans might soon find bare supermarket shelves where toilet paper used to be,” a logistics analyst told the site. “This is not just about lumber for construction—softwood pulp is a key ingredient in manufacturing tissue products like toilet paper and serviettes.”
I think this is an all time high post !
The other topics are behind the firewall.
I guess you guys don’t have any place else to post, I don’t see that J-36 vs F-47 has anything to post about.
The 929 would be worth some thought. But like the 919, all that Western content to get rid of. Have to think even TCAS has to be Chineese and that is no where near the level of systems that need to be China content only.
Boeing and Airbus have generally picked competitive builders (sans the 777X gear) and could get the best offerings.
China can subsidize a 929 and never make money on it, but you have to wonder how much money can they create and not tank the economy?
No idea how competitive China shipbuildig is. The obviously have the build down. But the systems in the ship? Western. Engines are licensed, but that type always has been they are so big, you have to mfg them on site.
Fuel cleaners? West has built those forever and sure you can research and build you own, but then the cost is high, you have to support them just like an Airliner parts situation. And you have to train people all over the world to work on them.
Just one machine let alone all the machines and electronics etc on a ship. A ship owner has to make those decisions because a history of bad service and you never sell another system.
As a subset, this is worth reading. I am not going to comment on it as policy specifically, but it is a fascinating example of non free trade hidden behind free trade but using bureaucratic methods to actually stop it.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/12/china-trade-war-exports-00287123
The US has been odd in that aspect, its been what can we do to facilitate movement of any goods (be it ship or aircraft freight) . FedEx worked with Customs to be on site so they could approve the flow and assess the small amount that is put on hold while they review the items or paperwork.
I saw some fake marked stuff sit for months and then got sent to the dump. Some went on through once they sorted out the paperwork that had issues.
And Donny boy is hitting another Red State hard. FedEx and UPS as well as other bulk aircraft freight ops are one of the few non oil aspects of our economy. Killing off two big facilities and the employment.
> ‘The U.S. itself is no stranger to using nontariff barriers to protect its agricultural commodities, said Colin Carter, an agricultural economist at the University of California, Davis.
“One of the most egregious examples, if we look in the mirror, is U.S. sugar policy,” he said, referencing the virtual ban on sugar imports, a policy that has led to much higher domestic sugar prices.’
Rules for thee but not for me!
“Protectionism has a long history in the US – so its return should not be all that surprising”
“…But this began to change in the 1970s, driven by the success of Japanese car manufacturers. In 1981 the US negotiated with Japan’s carmakers a voluntary cap on exports to the US of 1.68 million cars per year.”
https://theconversation.com/protectionism-has-a-long-history-in-the-us-so-its-return-should-not-be-all-that-surprising-252073
—
Thou shalt buy our stuff — but thou shalt not try to sell us thine own stuff.
“China can subsidize a 929 and never make money on it, but you have to wonder how much money can they create and not tank the economy?”
or
United States (Washington State, Kansas and South Carolina) can subsidize a 787 and Boeing never make money on it
+1
Boeing has lost *tens of billions* of dollars on the 787,
with no path to recoup those losses (per Bjorn Fehrm)..
😉
On a direct aircraft aspect, good news.
https://www.airdatanews.com/boeing-reactivates-4th-777x-prototype/
Of course one of the buyers aka Cathay Pacific is likely off the table and who knows what other tariffs are involved.
I suspect a hold put on any aircraft tariffs as this birds is sold to other than the US carriers who are happy with what they have be it Airbus or Boeing.
Yeah at a time when CEOs are expecting recession or worse and Americans’ worry about unemployment jumped, you expect airlines are rushing out to order VLA order?