Leeham News and Comment
Intelligence for the Aviation Industry: Value*Performance*Reliability
Leeham News and Comment
- MRJ entering more stable phase June 28, 2017
- Airbus augments A350-1000 capability June 27, 2017
- Decision detailed (sort of) in Boeing-Bombardier price dumping case June 27, 2017
- Boeing’s advantage going into 2018 June 26, 2017
- Pontifications: Read the fine print June 26, 2017
MRJ entering more stable phase
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 28, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: The Mitsubishi Regional Jet, MRJ, has been through troubled years. The aircraft, which should have entered the market 2013, will now be delivered to first customer, All Nippon Airways (ANA), in mid-2020.
The latest delay, announced in January 2017, was significant: from mid-2018 to mid-2020.
We sat down with MRJ’s Program and Flight test management to understand what is going on. Read more
Airbus augments A350-1000 capability
June 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus has quietly announced it will augment the payload and range capability of the Airbus A350-1000 when certified. The latest Aircraft Characteristics for Airport and Maintenance Planning guide (ACAP) for A350 increases the aircraft’s maximum weight before fuel is loaded and its maximum take-off weight.
At the same time, the A350-900ULR variant’s maximum take-off weight is now available as a standard weight variant (no 10).
Decision detailed (sort of) in Boeing-Bombardier price dumping case
June 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The US International Trade Commission (ITC) last week released its detailed decision to go forward with the Boeing complaint that Bombardier engaged in price dumping when it sold the CS100 to Delta Air Lines.
But for the outsider, the public document isn’t much help. It’s heavily redacted and left out all the good stuff that would allow an outsider to fully understand the reasoning the ITC voted 5-0 to send the case over to the US Commerce Department for further study and potential imposition of tariffs.
Delta Air Lines Bombardier CS100.
Boeing’s advantage going into 2018
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Introduction
June 26, 2017, © Leeham Co.: One air show doesn’t make a trend, but the Paris event and other signs before it draw one inescapable conclusion: Boeing has momentum.
With Airbus about to undergo a sea change with the retirement of John Leahy, its COO-Customer who for decades has been its top salesman, Boeing will try to return to a sustained sales leadership position that it lost a decade ago under the hard-driving Leahy.
Summary
- Boeing’s rare air show win was about more than just the 737 MAX 10.
- Commercial acceptance of the MAX 10 was greater than anticipated.
- Development of the “797” appears to be increasingly likely.
- Airbus’ public response that it has the Middle of the Market covered falls short.
- New blood at Boeing is important.
Pontifications: Read the fine print
By Scott Hamilton
June 26, 2017, © Leeham Co.:
Are the widebodies orders seeing some earlier-than-expected recovery?
Airbus and Boeing said they don’t expect to see a renewed demand for wide-bodied aircraft until around 2022, +/-. But Boeing certainly had stronger-than-expected orders at last week’s Paris Air Show.
- Read the decision in the Boeing-Bombardier complaint. The document is at the end of this column.
The company received orders and commitments for 50 787s and six 777s.
Boeing said it expects new 777 Classic and 777X orders this year.
Airbus has decent showing in down year
June 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Although Boeing ran away with the Paris Air Show orders, commitments and headlines, Airbus actually had a respectable showing in a down year.
Airbus announced orders and commitments for 326 aircraft. Twenty of these were wide-bodies, compared with 56 for Boeing. The balance were members of the A320ceo/neo families.
For all the criticism of Boeing’s conversion of 199 737 MAX 8/9s to the MAX 10, Airbus converted 15 A320ceos to A321neos from CDB Leasing.
Bjorn’s Corner: Interesting aircraft at the sides of Paris Air Show 2017
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 22, 2017. ©. Leeham Co: When visiting the Paris Air Show this week, we strolled several times into the Aeronautical museum which is placed at the Le Bourget airfield. It has a fine collection of historical aircraft, helicopters, missiles and space rockets/capsules.
One of the most interesting eras in French aeronautical history, captured in the museum, is the period directly after the second World War. The French industry, destroyed by the war, started its way back. Part of the way was to learn about jet propulsion for military and civil aircraft and how to design a practical supersonic fighter aircraft for the French Air Force.
Experiments with high subsonic ramjet aircraft, the Leduc 21 in 1953. Source; Google images.
From a multitude of experiments with different aircraft types and propulsion systems, came finally the successful Dassault Mirage jets, the Caravelle jet airliner and the only Supersonic passenger jet, the Concorde. Here a video and some pictures from these exhibitions.
Propelled by MAX 10, Boeing thumps Airbus at Paris Air Show
June 22, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The Boeing 737 MAX 10 received a rousing endorsement from lessors and airlines last week at the Paris Air Show.
There were 361 orders and commitments announced, blowing through Boeing’s own forecast Monday of 240 orders. Never mind that 214 are conversions from other MAX orders, a fact Airbus COO Customers John Leahy used to downplay the program launch: the performance is a dramatic contrast to the poor reception Boeing received only three months earlier, at the ISTAT conference in San Diego, when a soft launch was rolled out by Boeing.
Heading into the final PAS day, a recap of orders
June 22, 2017, © Leeham Co.: As we head into the final day of the Paris Air Show, Boeing has a commanding lead in announced orders and commitments over Airbus.
But we’re all waiting for the End-of-Show press conference at 11am Paris time for Airbus, where COO-Customers John Leahy has a long history of pulling a rabbit out of his hat, announcing three-digit orders to overcome Boeing’s lead.
Boeing’s a revisionist, Airbus isn’t, says product head
June 21, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing, after years of struggling sales, finally dropped the iconic 747 passenger airplane from its 20-year forecast, revealed publicly yesterday at the Paris Air Show.
Boeing in fact eliminated the entire Very Large Aircraft sector (400 passengers and up) from its forecast, the Current Market Outlook.
The forecast for the 747-8F now is part of a new category, Freighters, which encompasses all sizes. Boeing projects a need for 920 freighters in the next 20 years.
Rival Airbus continues to forecast a need for 1,400 VLAs in its Global Market Forecast.