Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
It’s official: MTU’s engine leader named CEO of Airbus Commercial from Jan. 1; future of Open Fan and A220-500 shifts to him
The future of the CFM RISE Open Fan on the Airbus A320neo successor family loses its biggest proponent within Airbus with the retirement of Commercial Aircraft CEO Christian Scherer. His successor is CEO of MTU Aero Engines, a big supplier to CFM’s rival, Pratt & Whitney and the PW1100 GTF engine. Credit: Leeham Co.
By Scott Hamilton
July 10, 2025, © Leeham News: It’s official: Lars Wagner becomes CEO of Airbus Commercial Aircraft on Jan. 1. He will succeed current CEO Christian Scherer, who will retire after 40 years at Airbus.
Word of Wagner’s appointment leaked months ago.
Lars Wagner, CEO of MTU Aero Engines. Credit: MTU.
Wagner joins Airbus on Nov. 1 to begin a two-month transition. He is currently the CEO of MTU Aero Engines, a position he assumed in 2023. He joined MTU in 2015. Before that, he held various positions at Airbus. He is an engineer.
Wagner’s appointment may cast a question over GE Aerospace’s campaign with Airbus to choose the RISE Open Fan engine for the latter’s new single aisle aircraft intended to replace the A320neo family.
During the Paris Air Show last month, Airbus Group CEO Guillaume Faury said Airbus plans to decide on the engine to be selected for the A3XX around 2027-2028. A program launch target is 2030 with an entry-into-service target of 2038.
Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 4.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
July 3, 2025, © Leeham News: We are writing an article series about stretching the A220 to a capacity in the A320neo range. The idea is to replace the A320neo over time, making room in the A320/321 production lines for more A321s and extending the A220 family with a larger variant.
We can increase the capacity to that of the A320neo by stretching the A220 fuselage. The next discussion was about how much we could increase the Maximum Takeoff Weight (MTOW) to accommodate more passengers and additional fuel, thereby maintaining the A220-300 range with a longer, heavier, and, therefore, draggier aircraft. We would need to find wing lift improvements and more thrust to keep the field performance close to the A220-300.
We now utilize the Leeham Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to evaluate various changes to an A220-500 to optimize its performance. 
Figure 1. A rendering of an A220-500. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- An A220-500 can be designed to have close to the same fuel seat-mile economics as the A320neo. Our article series explains why beating the A320neo would be a challenge.
- It also looks into what a CFM LEAP-engined A220-500 would look like and how it would perform.
Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D
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By Scott Hamilton
June 23, 2025, © Leeham News, Paris: CFM International touts its Open Fan RISE engine as the wave of the future. (CFM is a 50-50 joint venture between GE Aerospace and Safran.)
Rival Pratt & Whitney says evolution of its Geared Turbo Fan is the best engine choice going forward.
CFM’s Open Fan engine design called RISE. Credit: CFM.
Neither company will admit that it is also researching and developing a Plan B engine. For CFM, this is a conventional turbofan. For PW, this is a new Open Fan. But during the Paris Air Show, LNA confirmed that both have a Plan B engine in development.
PW has gone out of its way to dismiss the very idea of an Open Fan engine. Rick Deurloo, the president of Pratt & Whitney Commercial, won’t even talk about the “competitor.” Deurloo makes it clear—publicly, at least—that an evolution of PW’s Geared Turbo Fan (GTF) is the best solution for the next generation engine for the single aisle market, in its view.
Mike Winter, RTX’s Chief Engineer, dismissed the Open Fan as “sub-optimal” on a successor to the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX families. It involves too many installation compromises on this size aircraft, he says. RTX is the parent of PW.
But, says one person with direct knowledge, PW fully understands that if CFM is successful in solving all the challenges of an Open Fan and meets the publicly stated goal of improving fuel consumption by 20% compared with today’s GTF and CFM LEAP engines, PW’s gain of an evolutionary GTF won’t be competitive.
So, says the person with direct knowledge of PW’s activities, the development of an Open Fan alternative engine is being worked on as PW’s Plan B.
Furthermore, PW’s sister company, Pratt & Whitney Canada, publicly disclosed its development of an Open Fan engine in a briefing on Tuesday this week. This engine is for a new 70-100-seat aircraft designed by the start-up company MAEVE. PW is following PWC’s development.
New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development
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By Scott Hamilton
June 5, 2025, © Leeham News: Decades of research and development by GE Aerospace are a key element in the potential program of a step-change engine for the next new single-aisle airliner.
Mohamed Ali, SVP, chief technology and operations officer. Credit: GE Aerospace.
The RISE open fan engine, a joint project of GE and France’s Safran under the banner CFM International, has a huge fan without an engine nacelle, hence the name “open fan.”
One major concern about an engine without a shroud or nacelle to contain a blade failure is that the engine “throwing” a blade could penetrate the fuselage, causing injury or death to the passenger and substantial damage to the aircraft.
In a briefing last week by GE Aerospace, Mohamed Ali, the Senior Vice President, chief technology and operations officer, said the RISE’s composite blades benefit from millions of flight hours of composite blades on the GE90 (Boeing 777), CFM LEAP (Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo), GEnx (Boeing 787) and GE9X (Boeing 777X) engines. None of these engines (which have nacelles) has ever thrown a composite blade.
GE says the RISE can reduce fuel consumption, and with it lower emissions, by at least 20%. RISE is currently a development program. However, the company clearly is betting that this is the wave of the future. Rivals Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce instead are betting on evolutions of conventional turbofan engines as a “safer” bet.
GE targets RISE’s entry into service in 2035. Officials say the R&D remains on track to meet this date.
Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability
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By Scott Hamilton
Larry Culp, CEO of GE Aerospace. Credit: GE.
June 3, 2025, © Leeham News: Engine reliability and durability for the next new commercial aviation engine for the next new single-aisle airplane has emerged as the top demand of airlines and lessors.
Burned, frustrated, and angry by shortcomings in these areas in engines from every manufacturer, potential customers prioritize getting these areas right over reduced fuel consumption and lower emissions.
Airlines have had issues of varying severity with GE Aerospace’s GEnx (the Boeing 787); the CFM LEAP (Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX); Pratt & Whitney’s Geared Turbo Fan (Airbus A220 and A320neo and Embraer E2); and Rolls-Royce (Boeing 787, Airbus A350-1000). (GE is a 50% joint venture partner in CFM, with France’s Safran holding the other 50%.)
Tim Clark, the president of Emirates Airline, has been publicly vocal about his concerns regarding these issues with the forthcoming Boeing 777-9 and its massive GE9X engine, which is now undergoing flight testing. He’s also cited durability issues with the RR Trent XWB-97 engine on the Airbus A350-1000 as his key reason for holding off on ordering this model. Emirates has just taken delivery of the first A350-900s, the smaller version of the A350, powered by the Trent XWB-84. Reliability and durability issues have been reported for the smaller -900 and lower-thrust XWB-84 in the harsh Middle East environment.
In an appearance at an investors’ conference on May 28 hosted by Bernstein Research, GE CEO Larry Culp discussed these issues with the LEAP engine and how lessons learned apply to the RISE open fan.
Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 3.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 29, 2025, © Leeham News: We are writing an article series about stretching the A220 to a capacity in the A320neo range. The idea is to replace the A320neo over time to make room in the A320/321 production lines for more A321s and extend the A220 family with a larger variant.
We analyzed what we need to change to bring the capacity to the level of the A320neo. We could achieve this with a fuselage stretch, but then the Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW) would need to increase to keep the A220 range. The wing and engines would then have problems, the takeoff run would get longer, and the climb to an efficient initial cruise altitude would be affected.
We now examine the potential fixes for these problems.
Figure 1. A rendering of an A220-500. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- The A220-300 wing is not highly loaded compared to other Airbus single-aisle aircraft. With some modifications, it should be sufficient for an A220-500.
- The A220 engine is the mid-sized Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan, the PW1500G. It has limited thrust stretch capability. An alternative for a long-range (and thus heavier) A220-500 would be the CFM LEAP-1B from the 737 MAX.
How good is the C919? Part 2.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
March 27, 2025, © Leeham News: The COMAC C919 is finding its first customers outside China, which gives us reason to examine it and estimate how efficient it would be operating a typical mission compared to its Western competitors.
We will compare the C919ER version with a 3,000nm maximum range to “its look-a-like”, the A320neo, which served as the C919 design template.
Figure 1. The C919ER is analyzed using the Leeham Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM). Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- The C919 consumes more fuel as the airframe is larger for the same seating capacity as the A320neo.
- Due to a lack of airframe maturity, the maintenance costs will also be higher.
- The big unknown will be the capital costs as the pricing or leasing strategy of a state-owned COMAC is hard to predict.
GE sees 2,500 LEAP engine deliveries by 2028, enough for more than 1,000 A320neos and 737 MAXes
Larry Culp, CEO of GE Aerospace. Credit: GE Aerospace.
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By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 24, 2025, © Leeham News: CFM International plans to deliver 2,500 LEAP engines by 2028, enough to power more than 1,000 Airbus A320neos and Boeing 737 MAXes plus spare engines in a single year.
CFM is the 50-50 joint venture between GE Aerospace and Safran. The 737 exclusively uses the LEAP. The A320neo family splits its powerplant business between CFM and Pratt & Whitney’s Geared Turbo Fan engines. Between the MAX and a portion of the A320neo engines, CFM has a solid majority of the market share for the mainline single-aisle aircraft sector.
CFM is the brand for the CFM56 and LEAP, but GE and Safran benefit from the aftermarket business. Between the two engines, the maintenance, repair, and overhaul business is big and profitable.
Larry Culp, CEO of GE Aerospace, spoke at the Barclays investors conference on Feb. 20.
“There’s no question that from an aftermarket perspective, LEAP on top of CFM56 is going to keep us very busy,” Culp said. “We haven’t been particularly good at calling the outlook here because we’ve undershot the reality with the CFM56 the last couple of years.”
Culp said that GE continues to believe that it’s got several years of growth ahead. “We probably don’t see an apex until probably the 2027, 28-ish time period, and then we’ll see a gradual fade with the CFM56.
“I think we’re still talking about 2,000 shop visits at the end of the decade. We’ll see if we’re right or wrong on that, but that’s our current view. I think our partners at Safran have in effect echoed that recently at their own earnings call.”
Airbus 2024 results: “A decent year in a challenging environment”.
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 20, 2025, © Leeham News in Toulouse: The headline uses the words of Airbus CEO Guillame Faury when he opened the presentation of Airbus 2024 results in Toulouse today. It was a session where Faury and the CFO Thomas Toepfer put in an effort to let all present international journalists and their online colleagues ask all questions and deliver honest answers.
On the business-as-usual side, the company delivered 766 aircraft, which was within the guidance, after a deep grab effort in 4Q, leading to low deliveries for 1Q2025. EBIT at €5.4bn and Free Cash Flow at €4.5bn were also within guidance.
In general, the Commercial airplane side was fighting specific supply problems during 2024, which might limit the ramp-up of A350s and A220s going forward, more of which below. Helicopters have now recovered from challenging times and delivered a solid result. Defense and Space are strong in Air Power (fighters, etc.), given the tense European situation, with Space going through restructuring, which might include mergers with other European space players.
The real news was the reasons for pausing the CityAirbus eVTOL program, according to Faury, “not only because batteries were not where they should have been but also due to the lack of a market for this type of transportation.” As the world’s largest supplier of helicopters, Airbus is a credible source for such a lack of market statement.
Faury also detailed what is happening on the Hydrogen side. Due to slower-than-expected progress in Green Hydrogen production build-up, deployment of preparatory Ground Support Equipment (GSE), and Transportation using hydrogen at the airports in their H2 partner network, Airbus has decided to push out the entry into service of a “commercially viable hydrogen aircraft” by five to ten years.
However, said Faury, it has made progress. “We have reached TRL 3 for the tecnobricks, which has enabled us to select the Fuel Cell path as the preferred way forward. This means these activities are continued at the present level or even intensified, but it also means other paths (read Hydrogen burn) are ramped down. Overall, it means a decrease in R&D spending for Hydrogen activities in the coming years.”
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“What’s past is prologue.” –William Shakespeare.
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By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 16, 2024, © Leeham News: A new airplane from Airbus or Boeing is years away.
Engines drive whether a new airplane program makes sense. Technology just isn’t “there” yet. In any event, Boeing can’t afford to fund a new airplane program even if it wants to. Furthermore, until its stored inventory of 737s and 787s are cleared, or mostly so, production rates are back to 2018 levels, debt is substantially reduced, and profits and cash flows return, Boeing is mired in recovery from the past. Addressing the future must wait.
Airbus has no incentive to rush into a new airplane program, even if engine technology was available. Its backlogs extend into the 2030s, and it can’t meet the current demand. Production is mired in delays for the A320 and A350 families.
Both companies, and Embraer, remain adversely affected by supply chain parts delays.
Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury previously said he doesn’t see the company moving forward with a new airplane until 2035-2040. Additional insight into the company’s thinking came last month at the Aviation Forum 2024 in Munich, where vice presidents of Airbus’ propulsion and new programs departments outlined what’s ahead.