Leeham News and Comment
Intelligence for the Aviation Industry: Value*Performance*Reliability
Leeham News and Comment
- Boeing faces 787 deliveries slow down with Rolls-Royce problems; earnings call April 25 April 21, 2018
- Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft stability, Part 2 April 20, 2018
- Narrowbody and Widebody engine developments, Part 2 April 19, 2018
- Indigo, India’s market-leading airline April 18, 2018
- Airbus investment resets the clock on CSeries April 17, 2018
Narrowbody and Widebody engine developments, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 19, 2018, © Leeham News: In an article last week, we discussed the reason the new narrow-body engines are catching up to the fuel consumption of the wide-body engines.
Today we dig a bit deeper into the efficiency changes of the different engines and discuss which parameter changes have caused what changes in engine efficiency.
We will use our engine modeling software GasTurb to analyze what happens in a Turbofan when we change certain parameters.
Summary:
- The engine’s Core or Thermal efficiency changes with Turbine Entry Temperature (TET).
- To fully utilize such an increase in efficiency we need to adapt the overall design of the engine.
Déjà vu all over again
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Introduction
April 16, 2018, © Leeham News: There’s high turnover in the executive ranks. Major delivery delays cause disruption and unhappy customers. Airlines are cancelling and switching orders. Product strategy is challenged. Your competitor is taking advantage and making significant inroads.
If this sounds familiar, it is.
It’s déjà vu all over again.
Narrowbody and Widebody engine developments
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
April 12, 2018, © Leeham News: In an article yesterday about Long-Haul LCC costs we observed how the new Narrowbody engines are catching up to the fuel efficiencies of the Widebody engines.
Traditionally the Widebody engines were the efficiency leaders. The Narrowbody companions were designed to be durable rather than efficient.
Figure 1. Cut through of the Narrowbody LEAP engine. Source: CFM
We use the engine modelling software GasTurb to understand why this catching up of the Narrowbody engines has happened.
Summary:
- The new Narrowbody engines for Airbus’ A320 series and Boeing’s 737 MAX are close in specific fuel consumption to the new Widebody engines.
- We use the GasTurb engine modelling software to find the root cause of this change.
Focus on NMA engines: all OEMs vying for Boeing’s approval
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Introduction
March 22, 2018, © Leeham Co.: As Boeing enters the final stretch whether to launch the New Midrange Aircraft (NMA, aka 797) market focus should shift to the 
engines more than the airframe and even the market demand.
It all comes down to this: no engines, no plane.
Monday’s post outlined some of the issues to consider.
But there are larger implications as well.
Summary
- Market sources are tossing about various scenarios about the future GE Aviation and CFM.
- Rolls-Royce won’t have its Trent 1000 problems fixed until 2021 or 2022, at great cost.
- Pratt & Whitney won’t have its Geared Turbo Fan final PIP packages for its problems sorted out until around 2021.
- Resources—both financial and with engineering—are stretched now.
- Sequencing current engine problems, and in the case, GE’s GE9X, are a factor, in the eyes of some.
GE/CFM in “lockstep” with Boeing on NMA
David Joyce
March 22, 2018, © Leeham News: GE Aviation/CFM International are in “lockstep” with Boeing for development of an engine for the New Midrange Aircraft (NMA, or 797), the CEO of GE Aviation told a JP Morgan Aviation conference last week.
David Joyce acknowledged that there are technical issues and production delays for the new CFM LEAP 1A and 1B that power the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX families respectively. Production is running up to six weeks late, but should be caught up by the end of this year, he said.
Technical issues, while affecting at least 100 engines, nevertheless are far less of an issue than those plaguing rival Pratt & Whitney’s Geared Turbo Fan.
NMA focus needs to be on engines
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Introduction
March 19, 2018, © Leeham Co.: As the market awaits a decision by Boeing whether to launch the New Midrange Aircraft (NMA, or 797), focus has been on the aircraft’s definition and market demand.
It should be on the engines.
It doesn’t matter whether Boeing designs a fabulous airplane that’s the next best thing to sliced bread. What matters is whether the engines will be ready in time for Boeing’s suggested entry-into-service and if they are, whether they will be reliable out of the box.
The recent track record isn’t all that encouraging. Neither is Boeing’s preferred timing.
Summary
- CFM, GE, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce each had problems with their new engines. All continue.
- The Boeing NMA requires brand new engines, not derivatives.
- Engine development and certification within the Boeing preferred timeline is sporty at best.
Boeing’s NMA decision entering final stretch
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 15, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing’s NMA or 797 is taking final form ahead of a decision to launch the program later in the year.
Jon Ostrower has published the first picture of the projected aircraft, which he acknowledges might change in its final form. Figure 1 shows the smaller of the two NMA models, the 224-seat 797-6X.
Figure 1. The first sketch of the smaller 797-6X with 224 seats. Source: JonOstrower.com
We take a closer look at the 797 in its latest definition.
Summary:
- The Boeing NMA is called the 797-6X and 797-7X when presented to airlines.
- The 797 is best compared with the 767. Cabin dimensions are close to the 767-200 for the 797-6X and to the 767-300 for the 797-7X.
- The use of a more efficient cross-section, Carbon Fibre design, higher aspect ratio wing and modern engines makes the 797 a lighter and more efficient aircraft than the 767.
Hawaiian orders 787, cancels A330-800; Embraer ponder electric plane, not a jet
March 6, 23018 © Leeham Co.: It’s official: Boeing and Hawaiian Airlines announced an order for 10+10 787-9s. It’s a letter of intent and purchase rights.
The airline also confirmed it canceled an order for six Airbus A330-800s.
LNC was the first to report the transactions Feb. 20.
Separately, Embraer confirmed it’s looking at an airplane smaller than the E175, but denied a report originating in another media that it’s a small jet.
Engine makers “inside the tent” on Boeing NMA, but airframer still ponders provider
March 5, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The three engine makers, CFM/GE, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce, are the only suppliers that have been brought “inside the tent” by Boeing for the New Midrange Aircraft, a company executive said today.
Launching the program is critical on the engine companies, says Randy Tinseth, VP marketing for Boeing. Boeing hasn’t decided—officially—whether it will have a
Randy Tinseth. Photo via Google images.
single-engine or dual-engine source for the aircraft because the program hasn’t been launched.
Market intelligence tells LNC that Boeing wants two engine choices. Intel also indicates all three engine OEMs view the market demand as sharply smaller than Boeing’s publicly-stated forecast of 4,000 Middle of the Market sector airplanes over the next 20 years.
Pontifications: Transformation is key to increasing production rates
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 19, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The likely prospect that Airbus and Boeing will increase single-aisle production rates next decade is outlined in our paywall article today.
The whys and capabilities to do so are outlined in the paywall post. The how is what I’ve been writing about since the first of the year, when LNC looked ahead to its 2018 forecast.
The “how” is the transformation in production that is underway in aerospace.