Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
- RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs April 22, 2025
Rolls-Royce’s remarkable turnaround
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By Karl Sinclair
March 13, 2025, © Leeham News: Boeing should take note. In fairly short order, engine OEM Rolls-Royce (RR), under the stewardship of CEO Tufan Erginbilgic, has turned the corner. The company put a very rough stretch of road behind it.
Once described as a “burning platform” by the CEO, it has been turned into a cash-making machine. The company is now planning a £1bn share buyback purchase in 2025.
LNA looks at the factors responsible for this remarkable turnaround and where the corporation is headed.
Related Article:
Rolls-Royce profit soars, reinstates dividend after turnaround
By Leeham News Team
February 27, 2025, © Leeham News: Underlying operating profit at Rolls-Royce surged to £2.5bn ($3.17bn) in 2024, up from £1.6bn the previous year – a 57% increase – according to the company’s full year 2024 results announced on Thursday.
Profits soared this year. Credit: Rolls Royce
Strong financial performance in the group’s civil aerospace, defense and power systems divisions all contributed to the result, which beat analysts expectations (aside from power systems, which came below expectations) and has been hailed as evidence of a turnaround for the once-struggling company under CEO Tufan Erginbilgic’s leadership. The former BP executive previously described Rolls Royce as a “burning platform.”
Rolls Royce’s operating margin grew by 8.7pts to 13.8% last year, while free cash flow leapt to £2.4bn from £1.9bn and revenue rose to £17.8bn from £15.4bn. The £2.5bn operating profit was ahead of a forecast for between £2.1bn and £2.3bn.
As a result of the financial progress, the UK-based company has reinstated its dividend for the first time since the pandemic, announcing a 6 pence per share payout. Read more
Earnings: Pay closer attention to the supply chain than to the OEMs
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 23, 2025, © Leeham News: Earnings season begins today. Among the companies followed by LNA, GE Aerospace and Hexcel report today. RTX and Boeing report next week. ATI and Spirit AeroSystems follow the week after. Other suppliers follow then.
Airbus doesn’t report until Feb. 20. Rolls-Royce reports on Feb. 27.
The manufacturers draw the headlines, but LNA found long ago that the supply chain often provides better information to draw conclusions about the future than listening to the OEMs. All it takes is one supplier to fall down on the job to muck up the works for the OEMs.
That’s not to say listening to the OEMs is not important. Clearly, it is. But there’s just no getting around it: the credibility of many of the OEMs is damaged. Airbus hasn’t hit its production ramp up targets in years. Quality control suffers. And deliveries are consistently late.
Steven Udvar-Hazy, executive chairman of the board for Air Lease Corp, says that every single Airbus aircraft, 250 of them, has been late since 2017. That’s long before the pandemic began in March 2020, which caused such disruption continuing to this day. Airbus was still delivering A320ceos during 2017 and 2018, which didn’t have engine issues.
Boeing’s credibility speaks for itself. It doesn’t matter that it has a new CEO. Until Boeing starts performing, anything it currently says is hope, not performance. Post-strike delivery recovery will be an important indicator of Boeing’s performance in the essentially truncated fourth quarter and January.
Suppliers often discuss information on their earnings calls that provides a better understanding of production rates at the OEMs and where downstream issues are or are emerging.
2025 remains another year for recovery in commercial aerospace
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 6, 2025, © Leeham News: Don’t look for any dramatic new product launches in 2025.
Nor should you expect any dramatic news, absent global upheaval of some kind.
This year is going to be yet another year dominated by recovery. Recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, which officially ended in 2022. Recovery by the supply chain. Recovery for Pratt & Whitney’s nearly decade-long problems with its Pure Power GTF engines supplying the Airbus A220, A320 family and Embraer E2 jets. Recovery by Airbus from its production and delivery delays. Recovery by Boeing from its series of self-inflicted crises, now beginning the sixth year.
There is just no getting around the fact that the commercial aerospace industry isn’t a smooth-running industry. It’s a long way from 2018, when all sectors were running smoothly. There is still a long way to go to recovery.
Here’s LNA’s take on what’s to come this year.
Heart Aerospace’s revised ES-30, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
October 17, 2024, © Leeham News: We analyze Heart Aerospace’s latest evolution of the hybrid ES-30 (bottom aircraft in the picture), which replaces the original battery-based 19-seater (top aircraft) and the original ES-30 (mid aircraft).
The latest version, presented in spring 2024, is a parallel hybrid, putting gas turbine turboprop engines outside the electric motors. What are the advantages of the parallel hybrid version, and will it make the Heart ES-30 project more likely to succeed?
We use our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to understand the design choices and the costs involved.
Summary:
- The latest revision of the Heart Aerospace hybrid electric aircraft, the ES-30, takes the hybrid architecture from a serial to a parallel system. It simplifies the architecture.
- Does the revised ES-30 make airline operational sense? We analyze this using our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model.
Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 28. Wrapup.
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 11, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We have done an article series on why engine development takes longer than airframe development. Part of the reason is that advancements in engine technology can deliver considerably higher fuel consumption reductions than airframe advancements.
The change of engines for the A320 series and 737 MAX delivered a 15% improvement in engine efficiency. In contrast, the airframe improvement was less than half, mainly by stacking cabin seats closer together.
Figure 1. The 4:1 gear ratio Utrafan demonstrator in the Rolls-Royce test cell. Source: Rolls-Royce.
Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 26. New versus old, Trent 1000 vs. XWB
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 27, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We do an article series about engine development and why it has longer timelines than airframe development. It also carries larger risks of product maturity problems when it enters service than the airframe of an airliner.
In our look at examples of recent developments with problems and these put in a historical perspective, looking at the reliability and durability of its predecessor we compare the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 for the Boeing 787 to the Trent XWB for the Airbus A350.
Figure 1. The Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 with its wide cord hollow titanium fan. Source: Rolls-Royce.
Heart Aerospace’s revised ES-30
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By Bjorn Fehrm
September 26, 2024, © Leeham News: Heart Aerospace has revised its environmentally friendly aircraft for the third time. The variants started in September 2020, when Heart presented an all-electric, battery-based 19-seat airliner that should test fly by now and be available in 2026, Figure 1, top aircraft.
Two years later, in September 2022, it all changed. The aircraft was changed to a 30-seater with a serial hybrid propulsion system using turboextenders to increase the operational range, Figure 1, aircraft two.
After another 20 months, the configuration changed again to the third iteration in Figure 1, which will fly in prototype in 2026 and be available to airlines in 2029.
In an article series, we explain the reasons for these changes and analyze whether the changes in the aircraft have increased the likelihood of the ES-30 entering the market in 2029.
Figure 1. The Heart Aerospace regional airliner series. Top, the ES-19, then the ES-30, and finally, the revised ES-30. Source: Heart Aerospace.
Summary:
- Heart Aerospace has followed the typical trajectory for an electric aircraft startup.
- It begins with an all-electric, battery-based airliner that will change regional flying.
- Gradually, reality sets in, and all-battery architecture becomes a serial hybrid and, finally, a parallel hybrid.
- We analyze if the evolution trail increases the chances we will fly on Heart Aerospace airliners come 2030.
Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 24. New versus old, GTF versus V2500
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 13, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We do an article series about engine development and why it has longer timelines than airframe development. It also carries larger risks of product maturity problems when it enters service than the airframe of an airliner.
We have covered the engine’s different parts and their technology challenges. We now look at some examples of recent developments with problems and put them in a historical perspective.
Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 22. High Turbine technologies.
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 30, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We do an article series about engine development and why it has longer timelines than airframe development. It also carries larger risks of product maturity problems when it enters service than the airframe of an airliner.
We reached the turbine part on our way through the engine, where we last looked at high-pressure turbine temperatures. It’s the most stressed part of the engine and, in most cases, decides its durability. To understand why, we look closer at turbine technologies.
Figure 1. Our example engine, the LEAP-1A, is in cross-section with booster to compressor bleed valve area marked with a red circle. Source: CFM.