Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Aerospace supply chain still ailing; Sustainable Aviation Fuel isn’t the answer to go green October 4, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 27. Long developments October 4, 2024
- Longshoreman strike adds to Airbus, Boeing woes October 1, 2024
- Southwest Airlines Slashing Capacity Growth Shakes Up Their Fleet Plan September 30, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 26. New versus old, Trent 1000 vs. XWB September 27, 2024
Re-engining the Boeing 767, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 14, 2023, © Leeham News: We are looking at a re-engine of the 767, a move that Boeing is considering to avoid a production stop after 2027. The present 767 engines don’t pass emission regulations introduced by FAA, EASA, and other regulators for production and delivery beyond 2027.
We have described the history of the 767 and the key data of the different variants in last week’s article. Now, we look at what airframe modifications are necessary to house more efficient engines and what consequences these bring.
Summary:
- New, more environmentally friendly engines for the 767 mean changes to the landing gear and structures to house larger and heavier engines.
- For the payload capacity to stay the same a deeper grab in the 767-400 toolbox is necessary than just adopting the landing gear.
Rolls-Royce sets out ambitious vision to future-proof its business
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By Gordon Smith
November 29, 2023, © Leeham News: Rolls-Royce’s (RR) capital markets day presented a business that has bookended 2023 with two very different narratives. The November 28 event heralded targets such as a quadrupling of operating profit within five years, delivered via a bullish new growth strategy and re-energized vision for the future. How different things felt just 11 months earlier.
In January, new chief executive Tufan Erginbilgic adopted something of a shock-and awe approach, describing the company’s position in terms so blunt that it made even the most experienced market watchers blush.
Picking up the baton from Warren East – who had led the business for eight years – Erginbilgic’s comments went beyond the conventional candor of an incoming exec and spooked many. The new boss labeled the British firm a “burning platform” and described Rolls’ status quo as “unsustainable”.
Despite efficiency drives instigated by his predecessor, Erginbilgic’s message was clear; 2023 represented a “last chance” to change. Needless to say, there was a particularly high degree of expectation behind Rolls’ flagship investor event, his first as CEO.
Pontifications: Airbus ponders A330neo MRTT, Boeing ponders KC-46A re-engine
By Scott Hamilton
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 28, 2023, © Leeham News: In a reversal of intent, the airplane that Airbus may submit to the US Air Force for the next round of aerial tanker procurement may be based on the A330neo instead of the current production A330-200ceo MRTT.
The Air Force, however, may forego competition between Airbus and Boeing and place a sole-source follow-on order with Boeing for the KC-46A tanker, based on the 767-200ER. Boeing already has a contract for 179 KC-46As, and the USAF appears to be leaning toward a sole-source award. Political pressure from Airbus partisans and others who favor competition may prevail.
Related articles
- Airbus to develop second generation MRTT based on A330neo. (Aviation Week.)
- Lockheed Martin sees MRTT as complimentary to KC-46A
- Lockheed bows out, Airbus to continue, Boeing favored in tanker procurement
Airbus wants to discontinue production of the A330-200ceo-based MRTT. The neo-based version would be based on the A330-800. Sales of the -800 are poor—fewer than 20 have been ordered. An -800 based MRTT will breathe life into the nearly still-born model.
- Boeing considers re-engining the 767-300ERF and the KC-46A.
- KC-46A, 767-200, A330 MRTT exempt from 2027 ICAO standards.
Preview of Rolls-Royce Capital Markets Day
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By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 27, 2023, © Leeham News: Rolls-Royce’s Capital Market Day is tomorrow. “Our multi-year transformation programme will deliver a high-performing, competitive, resilient, and growing business. Join us to find out how we are going to do it and what a stronger Rolls-Royce will mean for all our stakeholders,” the company says on its website.
“Our multi-year transformation programme has started well with progress already evident in our strong initial results and increased full-year guidance for 2023. There is much more to do to deliver better performance and to transform Rolls-Royce into a high-performing, competitive, resilient, and growing business. We will share the outcome of our strategy review along with medium-term goals for the Group in November,” said CEO Tufan Erginbilgic on its website.
It has some other questions to answer, too.
An order for Airbus A350-1000s was expected to be announced at the Dubai Air Show by Emirates Airline. Another order, for a combination of A350-900s, -1000s, and A320neo, was expected from Turkish Airlines. Neither materialized—and, LNA is told, issues with the Trent XWB 97 were one reason.
Pontifications: “We’re sick and tired of new technologies:” Avolon CEO
By Scott Hamilton
Editor’s Note: As Airbus and Boeing consider new airplanes, their current generation aircraft are plagued with technical issues. The engines on the A320neo and 737 MAX families continue to have problems years after entry into service. The Boeing 787, which had ground-breaking technology when it was designed, has production issues. Flight testing early on revealed technical problems with the engine on the 777X, prompting the president of Emirates Airline to publicly suggest he won’t accept delivery until the engines are fully “mature.”
Aviation Week’s Check 6 podcast last week examined Boeing’s path toward a new airplane. Boeing CEO David Calhoun insists on waiting for new technology. But “new technology,” while in theory is a great idea, the phrase also scares people. LNA reported on this in March 2020. We’re reposting this article from then.
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Introduction
By Scott Hamilton
March 16, 2020, © Leeham News: “I can tell you from our perspective, we’re kind of sick and tired of new, new technology. It’s not proven to be the home run.”
This blunt assessment comes from the chief executive officer of the big aircraft lessor, Avolon.
Domhnal Slattery
Domhnal Slattery, the CEO, was giving his critique of whether Boeing should launch a new airplane once the 737 MAX crisis is over. (Update: Since this interview, Slattery retired from Avolon.)
Boeing was on a path to decide whether to launch the New Midmarket Airplane when the MAX was grounded one year ago this month.
Airbus was waiting for Boeing to move before deciding how to respond.
Summary
- Airbus and Boeing should “stick to their knitting.”
- Focus on incremental improvements for now.
- 2030s to 2050s will be the next big advance in technologies.
Pontifications: Moonshot for engines for Next Boeing Airplane may have to wait
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 12, 2023, © Leeham News: The Next Boeing Airplane (NBA) may be a moonshot for CEO David Calhoun, but airlines will probably be reluctant to take a moonshot on the next new engine.
Service issues with the CFM LEAP and Pratt & Whitney GTF engines are driving airlines batty. The failures of the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 years after entry-into-service (EIS) cost RR hundreds and millions of dollars and a confidence crisis that hurt future sales. LEAP engines are coming off wing well before initial forecasts. Every aircraft model using the GTF faced groundings as engine failures piled up.
Boeing sorely needs a successor to the 737, now in its 55th year and fourth iteration. Ron Epstein, the aerospace analyst for Bank of America, was biting in a Sept. 7 research note.
Flying a Boeing 737 is like driving a ‘68 Chevy Impala with a semi-modern dash.
“We note that Boeing continues to ride on the coattails of its past glory. The original Boeing 737 prototype first flew in April 1967, entering service less than a year later in February 1968 with Lufthansa. Fifty-five years later, the 737 airframe remains in service through a multitude of derivative models, including the most recent 737 MAX,” he wrote.
“However, we note that the model was never intended to be such a blockbuster long-term solution. Instead, the 737 was expected to be a band-aid for the Boeing portfolio to compete with the market share-winning DC-9. The Boeing fleet lacked a smaller narrowbody model to complement the company’s larger jets, like the 707. In the spirit of the General Motors model, the 737 was intended to be the ‘cheap Chevy’ of the portfolio. Fledgling carriers would operate the cheaper model before upgrading to Boeing’s large, higher-end products like the 707 and, later, the 747, which one could see as the ‘Cadillacs’ of the portfolio.
“In our view, while the longevity of the 737 is impressive, the aircraft is now a bit of an anachronism. Operating the aircraft is like driving around in a 1968 Chevy Impala with a semi-modern dashboard. It is important to note that the 737 is the only currently manufactured commercial aircraft without fly-by-wire controls, which are a staple in modern aircraft control system design.”
Epstein worked for Boeing from 1995 to 1999 as an Applied Research Scientist. He’s a technical advisor to United Airlines for the alternative energy sector.
United selects GEnx for order for 100 787s
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By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 14, 2023, © Leeham News: United Airlines quietly selected GE engines for its order in December last year for 100 Boeing 787-9s, according to Boeing’s website. The order isn’t finalized and neither GE nor United would comment.
There had been speculation that UAL might order Rolls-Royce engines as a mitigation for cancelling 45 Airbus A350-900s, which is powered exclusively by RR. United repeatedly deferred delivery of the A350s, which were ordered by previous managements. United inherited a large order for 787s when it merged with Continental Airlines and placed repeat orders for the 787 after the merger. The A350s essentially are duplicative to the 787s.
United placed large orders for the Airbus A321neo at a time when Boeing at first dithered whether to launch the New Midmarket Aircraft. UAL added to the neo order during the time when Boeing was unable to pursue any new airplane program due to the extended grounding of the MAX and during the COVID pandemic.
Pontifications: Engine makers’ business model needs overhaul
By Scott Hamilton
May 2, 2023, © Leeham News: The business models for engine makers for decades have been simple: deeply, deeply discount the engines on the sale and make up the revenue and profits on the maintenance, overhaul, and repair (MRO) contracts.
It’s a model that’s served engine makers and customers alike well. Customers save millions of dollars on the upfront purchase of airplanes. The engine companies win market share.
There are downsides for the Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), though. The discounts typically are steeper than those offered by Airbus and Boeing (and Embraer and ATR). LNA has seen deals with discounts as steep as 80% on the sales price. We’ve even seen one deal in which the OEM gave (as in free) the engines in exchange for the MRO contract.
The big downside to this is that it can take 10-12 years, or more, for the OEMs to recover their research and development and production ramp/learning curve costs. Then as the CFM 56 matured into perhaps the most reliable jet engine ever, with more than 25,000 hours on-wing, followed by the IAE V2500, MRO services contracts didn’t return the revenue and profits as quickly as before.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 9. Engine core advances
By Bjorn Fehrm.
April 21, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a summary of the article New aircraft technologies. Part 9P. Engine core advances. The article discusses how developments for the next-generation airliner engine cores will increase the thermal efficiency of next-generation engines.
Figure 1. The Pratt & Whitney PW1100G engine with its compact core enabled by a geared high RPM design. Source; Pratt & Whitney.