June 26, 2017, © Leeham Co.: One air show doesn’t make a trend, but the Paris event and other signs before it draw one inescapable conclusion: Boeing has momentum.
With Airbus about to undergo a sea change with the retirement of John Leahy, its COO-Customer who for decades has been its top salesman, Boeing will try to return to a sustained sales leadership position that it lost a decade ago under the hard-driving Leahy.
June 26, 2017, © Leeham Co.:
Are the widebodies orders seeing some earlier-than-expected recovery?
Airbus and Boeing said they don’t expect to see a renewed demand for wide-bodied aircraft until around 2022, +/-. But Boeing certainly had stronger-than-expected orders at last week’s Paris Air Show.
The company received orders and commitments for 50 787s and six 777s.
Boeing said it expects new 777 Classic and 777X orders this year.
Airbus announced orders and commitments for 326 aircraft. Twenty of these were wide-bodies, compared with 56 for Boeing. The balance were members of the A320ceo/neo families.
For all the criticism of Boeing’s conversion of 199 737 MAX 8/9s to the MAX 10, Airbus converted 15 A320ceos to A321neos from CDB Leasing.
There were 361 orders and commitments announced, blowing through Boeing’s own forecast Monday of 240 orders. Never mind that 214 are conversions from other MAX orders, a fact Airbus COO Customers John Leahy used to downplay the program launch: the performance is a dramatic contrast to the poor reception Boeing received only three months earlier, at the ISTAT conference in San Diego, when a soft launch was rolled out by Boeing.
But we’re all waiting for the End-of-Show press conference at 11am Paris time for Airbus, where COO-Customers John Leahy has a long history of pulling a rabbit out of his hat, announcing three-digit orders to overcome Boeing’s lead.
Boeing in fact eliminated the entire Very Large Aircraft sector (400 passengers and up) from its forecast, the Current Market Outlook.
The forecast for the 747-8F now is part of a new category, Freighters, which encompasses all sizes. Boeing projects a need for 920 freighters in the next 20 years.
Rival Airbus continues to forecast a need for 1,400 VLAs in its Global Market Forecast.
Mike Sinnett, VP for Product Development, outlined some of the ideas, in general terms, at a press briefing today at the Paris Air Show.
June 21, 2017, © Leeham Co.: “It’s all about continuing the development strategy since thirty years” said Mike Delaney, VP of program development for Boeing. “It’s about continuing the development strategy for 30 years producing super efficient twins that support point-to-point networks.”
Delaney made the remarks at the Paris Air Show about developing the 737 MAX 10 and the NMA (New Medium size Airplane).
Figure 1 shows the Boeing products over the years, with the 737 MAX 10 and the NMA filling the gap between 180 and 270 two class seats (note the 748i is no longer part of the chart). The MAX 10 is in place and a tentative NMA is showing the way into the next decade. Read more
While the number and the blue-chip customer are welcome for the launch of the program, it came at the expense of converting all of them from other MAXes previously ordered by UAL.
Boeing also announced MAX 10 orders from Chinese lessor CALC (15), Chinese airline OKAY (8) and US lessor Aviation Capital Group (20). These are new orders.
Kevin McAllister, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, and Dennis Muilenburg, CEO of The Boeing Co., announced there were 240 orders from more than 10 customers when they confirmed the show’s worst kept secret: that the launch was here.
The 240 orders were more than had been expected—and less than advertised.