Boeing’s advantage going into 2018

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Introduction

June 26, 2017, © Leeham Co.: One air show doesn’t make a trend, but the Paris event and other signs before it draw one inescapable conclusion: Boeing has momentum.

With Airbus about to undergo a sea change with the retirement of John Leahy, its COO-Customer who for decades has been its top salesman, Boeing will try to return to a sustained sales leadership position that it lost a decade ago under the hard-driving Leahy.

Summary
  • Boeing’s rare air show win was about more than just the 737 MAX 10.
  • Commercial acceptance of the MAX 10 was greater than anticipated.
  • Development of the “797” appears to be increasingly likely.
  • Airbus’ public response that it has the Middle of the Market covered falls short.
  • New blood at Boeing is important.

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Pontifications: Read the fine print

By Scott Hamilton

June 26, 2017, © Leeham Co.:

Are the widebodies orders seeing some earlier-than-expected recovery?

Airbus and Boeing said they don’t expect to see a renewed demand for wide-bodied aircraft until around 2022, +/-. But Boeing certainly had stronger-than-expected orders at last week’s Paris Air Show.

  • Read the decision in the Boeing-Bombardier complaint. The document is at the end of this column.

The company received orders and commitments for 50 787s and six 777s.

Boeing said it expects new 777 Classic and 777X orders this year.

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Airbus has decent showing in down year

June 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Although Boeing ran away with the Paris Air Show orders, commitments and headlines, Airbus actually had a respectable showing in a down year.

Airbus announced orders and commitments for 326 aircraft. Twenty of these were wide-bodies, compared with 56 for Boeing. The balance were members of the A320ceo/neo families.

For all the criticism of Boeing’s conversion of 199 737 MAX 8/9s to the MAX 10, Airbus converted 15 A320ceos to A321neos from CDB Leasing.

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Propelled by MAX 10, Boeing thumps Airbus at Paris Air Show

June 22, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The Boeing 737 MAX 10 received a rousing endorsement from lessors and airlines last week at the Paris Air Show.

There were 361 orders and commitments announced, blowing through Boeing’s own forecast Monday of 240 orders. Never mind that 214 are conversions from other MAX orders, a fact Airbus COO Customers John Leahy used to downplay the program launch: the performance is a dramatic contrast to the poor reception Boeing received only three months earlier, at the ISTAT conference in San Diego, when a soft launch was rolled out by Boeing.

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Heading into the final PAS day, a recap of orders

June 22, 2017, © Leeham Co.: As we head into the final day of the Paris Air Show, Boeing has a commanding lead in announced orders and commitments over Airbus.

But we’re all waiting for the End-of-Show press conference at 11am Paris time for Airbus, where COO-Customers John Leahy has a long history of pulling a rabbit out of his hat, announcing three-digit orders to overcome Boeing’s lead.

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Boeing’s a revisionist, Airbus isn’t, says product head

June 21, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing, after years of struggling sales, finally dropped the iconic 747 passenger airplane from its 20-year forecast, revealed publicly yesterday at the Paris Air Show.

Boeing in fact eliminated the entire Very Large Aircraft sector (400 passengers and up) from its forecast, the Current Market Outlook.

The forecast for the 747-8F now is part of a new category, Freighters, which encompasses all sizes. Boeing projects a need for 920 freighters in the next 20 years.

Rival Airbus continues to forecast a need for 1,400 VLAs in its Global Market Forecast.

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Boeing’s future airplanes

June 21, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing hasn’t launched the 797 and it’s already looking at applying this technology to future aircraft and coming up with more technology for the decades ahead.

Mike Sinnett, VP for Product Development, outlined some of the ideas, in general terms, at a press briefing today at the Paris Air Show.

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Developing Boeing’s airplanes

June 21, 2017, © Leeham Co.: “It’s all about continuing the development strategy since thirty years” said Mike Delaney, VP of program development for Boeing. “It’s about continuing the development strategy for 30 years producing super efficient twins that support point-to-point networks.”

Delaney made the remarks at the Paris Air Show about developing the 737 MAX 10 and the NMA (New Medium size Airplane).

Figure 1. Boeing’s airliner lineup over  the years. Source: Boeing.

Figure 1 shows the Boeing products over the years, with the 737 MAX 10 and the NMA filling the gap between 180 and 270 two class seats (note the 748i is no longer part of the chart). The MAX 10 is in place and a tentative NMA is showing the way into the next decade. Read more

United opts for 100 MAX 10s

June 20, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing closed out the second day of the Paris Air Show capturing the orders headlines again with a big one: 100 for the 737 MAX 10 from United Airlines.

While the number and the blue-chip customer are welcome for the launch of the program, it came at the expense of converting all of them from other MAXes previously ordered by UAL.

Boeing also announced MAX 10 orders from Chinese lessor CALC (15), Chinese airline OKAY (8) and US lessor Aviation Capital Group (20). These are new orders.

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Dissecting the 737-10 numbers

Analysis

June 19, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing’s launch of the 737 MAX 10 on its face was a surprisingly strong showing here at the Paris Air Show.

Kevin McAllister, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, and Dennis Muilenburg, CEO of The Boeing Co., announced there were 240 orders from more than 10 customers when they confirmed the show’s worst kept secret: that the launch was here.

The 240 orders were more than had been expected—and less than advertised.

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