Mitsubishi ends 2019 with ~500 commitments for SpaceJet

By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 22, 2020, © Leeham News: Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp. (MITAC) ended 2019 with 495 commitments for the M100 SpaceJets from multiple continents, LNA learned.

All but 100 from US regional carrier Mesa Airlines are unidentified.

Mesa announced a commitment for 50 firm orders and 50 options in September at the US Regional Airline Assn. annual meeting in Nashville.

MITAC wouldn’t comment, but LNA understands that commitments come from North America and Europe. It’s unclear if additional commitments are from Asia.

Japan’s ANA and Japan Air Lines are launch customers for the M90 SpaceJet, previously called the MRJ90. This model was rebranded in June at the Paris Air Show when the M100 SpaceJet program was launched.

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Environment and aviation, a gap between aspirations and reality

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By Vincent Valery

Introduction  

Jan. 20, 2020, © Leeham News: Talks about climate change and the need to reduce human-induced carbon emissions are nowadays a daily occurrence in Western media. After years of faster-than-trend growth in global passenger numbers, aviation-induced carbon emissions commensurably increased in spite of record deliveries in latest-generation, fuel-efficient planes.

As a result of this growth, airlines have been one of the main targets of environmental groups. The high growth culminated in the start of the flight-shame movement that originated in Sweden (flygskam). As outlined in a previous LNA article, there are discussions about introducing a jet fuel tax for all flights within the European Union.

Credit: Zunum Aero

Credit: Zunum Aero

Airbus is committed to the “decarbonization” of its next airplane design.

Boeing’s next move for a new airplane has been sidetracked by the 737 MAX crisis.

Embraer is devoting considerable effort to developing a “green” airplane.

Summary
  • Airlines and politicians on the back foot;
  • Variety of opinion among regions;
  • And airlines make consensus-building hard;
  • An obsession with one way to reduce emissions;
  • Flybe’s bailout summarizes contradictions and challenges.

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Embraer’s challenges

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By Vincent Valery

Introduction  

Jan. 13, 2020, © Leeham News: It is no exaggeration to say that 2020 is a pivotal year for Embraer. Whether the tie-up with Boeing materializes will determine its future.

As crunch time approaches for the creation of Boeing Brasil, LNA thought it relevant to study the company’s financial records since 1999. This is another in a series of financial analysis of leading aerospace companies and airlines.

From humble beginnings, the company achieved a dominant position in the regional market with the E-Jet family. After a slump in defense and security business revenues in the early 2000s, the company undertook significant programs. It also entered the business jet market to diversify its revenue streams.

So far, E2 E-Jet sales have been tepid. After years of significant development spending, the Commercial aircraft division is just above red ink, the Defense and Security division isn’t profitable and the Business jets are not adding anything to the bottom line.

Regardless of whether the tie-up with Boeing materializes, Embraer will have to take major strategic decisions, especially in the Commercial Aviation division.

Summary
  • From government project to world-class OEM;
  • Profitability challenges;
  • (Not so) diversified revenue sources;
  • Plans with Boeing;
  • And without it.

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Pontifications: Airbus almost certain to be hurt by MAX crisis

By Scott Hamilton

Jan. 6, 2020, © Leeham News: This may be the year that Airbus is hit with the negative consequences of the Boeing 737 MAX crisis.

Most observers see Airbus benefitting with greater A320 family sales while the MAX remains grounded.

In LNA’s 2020 Outlook last week, we pointed out that the long-running trade war between the US and European Union could be coming to a head this year. Airbus and the EU are waiting for the World Trade Organization’s authorization to impose tariffs on US products. This decision is expected in May or June. Boeing is expected to be the first target. The Trump Administration last year imposed a 10% tariff on Airbus aircraft.

The MAX crisis could ratchet up tariffs on Airbus aircraft.

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2020 Outlook for Airbus, Boeing, et al

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Introduction

By the  Leeham News team.

Jan. 2, 2020, © Leeham News: This will be a pivotal year for Boeing.

It will be a year of challenges for Airbus.

Embraer Commercial Aviation should disappear.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries faces final decisions for the SpaceJet.

Overhanging international trade is the US presidential election.

These are just some of the headlines to look for in 2020.

Leeham News and Analysis provides its annual outlook as the new year, and the new decade, begins.

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Pontifications: There was other news in 2019 besides MAX. Really.

By Scott Hamilton

Dec. 23, 2019, © Leeham News: The Boeing 737 MAX crisis clearly dominated the news this year.

It’s felt like the aviation stories have been all-MAX, all-the-time.

Believe it or not, there was aviation news other than the MAX.

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Can the DHC 8-400 compete with a CRJ550 for the 50 seat Scope Clause market?

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

November 14, 2019, © Leeham News: The US mainline airlines have large fleets of 50-seater regional jets that are getting old. The present Scope Clause limits on the number of aircraft with seating over 50 seats stop the mainlines from replacing these aircraft with larger aircraft. So there is a real need for an efficient 50 seater regional aircraft for the US market.

As there are no 50 seater jets in production, United is converting its 70 seater CRJ700s to 50 seaters to fill the gap and calls them the CRJ550. This is where de Havilland Canada sees a change for an adapted DHC 8-400 turboprop. It’s more efficient than a CRJ550 while offering the same comfort, says de Havilland. We check if this is correct and what chances a DHC 8-“550” have in this market.

Summary:

  • The US Scope Clauses allow the three mainlines to have more 1,000 50 seater jets, yet no new ones are available to replace the more than 600 in the market.
  • The in-production DHC 8-400 would be an alternative when looking at cabin size and dimensions.

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Pontifications: Southwest to evaluate splitting airplane supplier next year

Oct. 28, 2019, © Leeham News: Gary Kelly, the chairman of Southwest Airlines, told CNBC Thursday that next year, the company will review whether to source airplanes from another manufacturer besides Boeing.

This, of course, means Airbus.

The prolonged grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX is the reason. Southwest says the grounding already has cost nearly $500m in lost revenues.

Kelly said the analysis won’t be for “smaller” airplanes, but he didn’t specify to CNBC what this means.

Southwest has 500 Boeing 737-700s seating 143 passengers at 30-31 inch pitch.

The Airbus A220-300 seats 145 at 32 inches in the Air Baltic one-class configuration.

The Embraer E195-E2 seats 146 passengers, but in a 28-inch pitch. At Southwest’s preferred 31-32 inch pitch, the E-Jet seats 132 passengers.

Since the context was the 737-8 MAX, did Kelly mean, not smaller than the -8? This isn’t known.

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Europe’s Regional airlines meet in Antibes, Cotes d’Azur.

By Bjorn Fehrm 

October 9, 2018, ©. Leeham News, Antibes France: The European Airlines Association, ERA, gathered 44 of its 51 member airlines in Antibes France, today for the first day of its 2019 General Assembly meeting.

LNA participated in the event for the first time and we found an impressive gathering of airline and airport representatives, aircraft OEMs and support businesses discussing the challenges facing the European regional air transport market.

Norway’s Wideroe, the launch customer for Embraer’s E-Jet E2 is one of the airlines present.

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Embraer’s E195-E2 or Airbus A220-300 under 150 seats? Part 3

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction 

October 3, 2019, ©. Leeham News: We have the last two weeks analyzed what aircraft to choose for the segment 120 to 150 seats, comparing Embraer’s E195-E2 with Airbus’ A220-300.

The first week we looked at fundamental data and last week we compared the drag data and by it the fuel consumption of the aircraft. Now, we analyze the other operational costs for the aircraft.

Summary:

  • The fuel costs between the E195-E2 and A220-300 are close.
  • We now analyze the other operational costs; Crew, Maintenance and Airway/Airport costs to see how these differ.

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