Exclusive: No change in Scope Clause in new United pilot contract that would have allowed E175-E2

By Scott Hamilton

June 24, 2022, (c) Leeham News: There is no change to the Scope Clause in the new United Airlines pilot contract governing the number of regional jets that can be operated by regional partners, LNA confirms.

There is also no change in the weight of the aircraft allowed, a blow to Embraer’s hopes for the E175-E2. The E2 is heavier than the E175-E1, which entered service in 2004. Embraer designed the E2 to be used with the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine. The GTF is more economical than the E1’s GE CF34, quieter, and emits fewer emissions. But it is slightly heavier than the Scope Clause contracts permit. The USA is virtually the only market for the E175-E2.

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Pontifications: From Just in Time to Just in Case

By Scott Hamilton

June 6, 2022, © Leeham News: Delivery delays by Airbus and Boeing are well-known in today’s recovering environment. The reasons vary from supply chain challenges affecting both companies to Boeing’s suspended deliveries of the 787 and slower-than-expected deliveries of the 737 MAX.

Airbus Canada delivered only five A220s in May vs 10 that were planned. Ten deliveries are planned this month but hitting this target (and 70 for the year) may be problematic. LNA previously detailed the delays for the A220. Airplanes are coming off the final assembly lines without completed cockpits. Embraer is affected by a shortage of seats. CFM’s delivery of LEAP engines for the A320neo and 737 MAX is delayed.

It’s not just the big-ticket items that are hurting the Big Three airframe manufacturers. It’s the little stuff. The supply chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Some smaller suppliers can’t get the products they need from their suppliers. And some, already facing workforce shortages before the COVID-19 pandemic, are short of workers today.

These issues are causing a shift in what used to be the mantra of Just in Time product deliveries.

Boeing is trying to help its supply chain on a number of levels, said Mike Nieman, Regional Director of Globalization & Supplier Development, during the I-90 Corridor Conference last week in Coeur D’Alene (ID). The group represents the aerospace industry from Spokane (WA) through Idaho and into Montana along the Interstate 90 highway corridor.

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HOTR: Embraer gets launch customer for E-Freighter, Boeing adds Lufthansa for 777-8F

By the Leeham News Team

May 10, 2022, © Leeham News: Embraer yesterday received its launch order for the E-Jet E1 P2F conversions from lessor Nordic Aviation Capital (NAC).

NAC reach “an agreement in principle” to convert 10 E190/195-E1s into freighters. The first deliveries are in 2024. The aircraft are in NAC’s current fleet.

Embraer E190F for lessor Nordic Aviation Capital. Source: Embraer.

The E-Freighters have 50% more volume capacity and three times the range of turboprop freighters (read: ATR) and up to 30% lower operating costs than narrowbodies (read: Boeing 737s), Embraer says. The aircraft will be converted by Embraer at its Brazilian operations. The conversion “includes the main deck front cargo door; cargo handling system; floor reinforcement; Rigid Cargo Barrier (RCB) – 9G Barrier with access door; cargo smoke detection system, including class “E” extinguishers in upper cargo compartment; Air Management System changes (cooling, pressurization, etc.); interior removal and provisions for hazardous material transportation,” Embraer says. “The E190F can handle a payload of 23,600lb (10,700kg) while the E195F a payload of 27,100 lb (12,300 kg).”

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Embraer 1Q2022 results; lower deliveries as Commercial aircraft division is re-integrated

By Bjorn Fehrm

April 5, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Embraer presented its 1Q2022 results today. The airframer had lower deliveries for Commercial aircraft and Business jets than in the 1st quarter of last year after shutting down production in January to reintegrate the Commercial aircraft division.

Despite a lower revenue for the quarter, the EBITs were similar, and free cash flow usage was down as Embraer has trimmed its cost base. Sales were positive, and the backlog has grown to $17.3bn from $15.9bn 1Q2021. Profits before tax were -$32m compared with a -$90m a year ago. The company confirmed the 2022 guidance.

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Pontifications: Horizon’s plan to focus on single fleet type appears a blow to TPNG hopes

March 29, 2022, © Leeham News: Alaska Air Group announced last week that its subsidiary, Horizon Air, will retire 32 De Havilland Canada (DHC) Dash-8-400s by the end of 2023. The regional airline will go to a single fleet type, the Embraer E175-E1. AAG owns some of the 175s. Regional partner SkyWest owns and operates others.

By Scott Hamilton

The plan adds to the struggles of DHC to return to service -400s stored at the start of the COVID pandemic. At the end of 2021, there were more than 150 stored. As of last week, this number was down to 142, according to the ch-aviation data base. Another 17 were in maintenance. There were 398 in service. The number stored represents 25% of the -400 fleet.

Consolidating to a single fleet type doesn’t bode well for Embraer’s efforts to win Alaska/Horizon as a launch customer for its new TPNG. This advanced turboprop, proposed in 70- and 90-seat versions, has engines mounted on pods at the rear in the latest concept shown to the industry. A new engine will replace the aging but reliable Pratt & Whitney PW-series used on the Dash 8 and ATR-42/72. P&W, GE and Rolls-Royce are developing a new generation engine.

Embraer wants to launch the program this year with a proposed entry into service of 2027.

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Pontifications: Embraer launches E1 Jet P2F program

March 7, 2022, © Leeham News: Embraer announced today that it launched a conversion program for its E190-E1 and E195-E1 jets.

By Scott Hamilton

“The full freighter conversion is available for all pre-owned E190 and E195 aircraft, with entry into service expected in early 2024. Embraer sees a market for this size of airplane of approximately 700 aircraft over 20 years,” Embraer said in a statement.

Embraer notes that there are a number of E1 jets aged 10-15 years old that are potential feedstock. The replacement cycle for these continues for the next decade, it said. The company sees a life extension of 10-15 years post-conversion.

Embraer aims to replace turboprop freighters. The E1 Freighters have 50% more volume, three times the range, and up to 30% lower operating costs than narrowbody freighters. (It avoids mentioning that turboprops have lower operating costs than the E-Jets.)

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Forecast 2022: ATR has monopoly, De Havilland looks to hydrogen and Embraer lurks with new design

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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm

Introduction

Jan. 31, 2022, © Leeham News: ATR is now effectively the only turboprop manufacturer outside of China and Russia in the 40-80 seat sector.  The models are the ATR 42-600, ATR 42-600S (STOL), and ATR 72-600.

The series was built on simplicity with unpowered controls and the simplest possible systems.  It has worked well for ATR when selling to markets that want airlift to the lowest possible cost.  It also means the design is at its limits capacity and speed-wise, any more capacity or performance and it needs powered controls and more elaborate systems.  It was behind ATR’s desire to develop a new, larger model in the past.

But ATR has little reason to develop a new turboprop now that it is in a monopoly position.  This could change if Embraer proceeds with its concept for a new family of two turboprops, a 70- and a 90-seat aircraft.  Embraer’s base design could form the basis of a hydrogen-burning gas turbine model in the future.

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Carbon footprint: Regional jet versus turboprop, how large is the difference?

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By Bjorn Fehrm

Introduction

January 27, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we kicked off a series of articles where we will measure what difference our choice of flying makes to the primary Greenhouse gas emission, CO2.

We have upgraded our airliner performance model for the series to give a direct output of the CO2 emissions for the flights in different phases.

We start this week by comparing a typical domestic feeder flight of 300 nm, with an example route of Cleveland to Chicago O’Hare. What will be the time differences? And the fuel burn and CO2 emission difference?

To make it a fair comparison, we’ll use present generation aircraft flying on the US market, the Embraer E175 and De Havilland’s DH 8-400. We will fly the DH 8 at a high-speed cruise to keep the flight time differences within 10 minutes.

Horizon Air DH 8-400. Source: Wikipedia.

Summary
  • As expected, the turboprop is the more efficient mode of transportation on the route. It consequently emits less CO2 per transported passenger.
  • With new, more comfortable turboprops in the works, the drive for sustainability could see a return of the turboprop to the US market.

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Forecast 2022: Embraer

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By Bjorn Fehrm

Introduction

January 10, 2022, © Leeham News: Embraer is the dominant regional jet aircraft supplier with a worldwide footprint and faces little competition to its products below 100 seats.

Between 100 to 150 seats, the situation is another after Bombardier “sold” its CSeries project to Airbus. Airbus’ might as aircraft OEM rekindled the CSeries as Airbus A220, and it’s now a vivid competitor to Embraer over 100 seats.

With a market it dominates and another where competition increases, we look at what’s in store for Embraer for 2022 as it hopes to exit the COVID pandemic for better times.

Embraer’s revised Turboprop. Source: Embraer.

Summary
  • Embraer is a complete supplier with capable development, production, and worldwide support for its regional jets.
  • Everything would be good had Bombardier, a player the size of Embraer, slugged it out with CSeries. The hand-over of the modern aircraft to Airbus changed the competitive landscape.

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P&W, Embraer pause E175-E2 engine; MTU writes off investment, sees no revenue in future for SpaceJet engine

By Scott Hamilton

Exclusive: Dec. 21, 2021, © Leeham News: Pratt & Whitney and Embraer agreed to suspend further development and production of the PW1700G for three years, LNA learned.

Another airplane without an engine.

PW and Embraer did not respond to inquiries. Separately, the aerospace company MTU reported earlier this year that it wrote off its entire investment in the PW1200G and expects no revenue from the program in the future.

Update: P&W provided this statement Dec. 22: “As already informed to the market, Embraer and P&W are evaluating E175-E2 program timing given market conditions and scope clause.

The engine was developed for the Mitsubishi MRJ. Development of the MRJ90 and follow-on MRJ70 were refined to the M100 SpaceJet when analysis concluded the MRJ90 wasn’t economically competitive with the E190-E2. A myriad of technical flaws also was discovered in the flight test vehicles that rendered the original design uncertifiable.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries indefinitely suspended the SpaceJet program in 2020. Embraer rescheduled the entry-into-service of the E175-E2 from 2021 twice, now targeting EIS for 2025. This depends on US pilot unions relaxing an airplane weight restriction in the labor contracts. The E175-E2 weight exceeds that allowed in the contracts.

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