Pontifications: Embraer’s strategy for the TPNG

By Scott Hamilton

Oct. 18, 2021, © Leeham News: It was October 2015 when Bjorn Fehrm and I first went to Sao Jose de Campos to visit Embraer’s headquarters. Among the topics discussed then was the prospect of developing a new turboprop airliner. The E2 program was well underway and one day, Embraer’s engineers would need something else to do.

At the time, officials weren’t enthusiastic about a turboprop. The cost to develop one was estimated to be about $2.5bn, about the same as the E2, they said. But the market was much smaller, only about 2,000-2,400 airplanes over 20 years.

Much has changed in six years. The E2 program is all but finished, with only the E175-E2 left. Periodic performance improvement packages will be developed. The proposed joint venture with Boeing, in which Embraer’s engineers were going to play a big role in two new airplane programs, is dead.

EcoAviation demands have risen to the forefront. Bombardier exited the Q400 turboprop business and the buyer, Longview Aviation Capital, “suspended” production during the COVID pandemic. Few believe it will be restarted. Airbus, which owns 50% of ATR, made hydrogen power a top priority. ATR may be the vehicle through which initial development is sold as a turboprop.

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Pontifications: Does Embraer’s turboprop design foretell what Boeing needs?

By Scott Hamilton

Aug. 23, 2021, © Leeham News: Could Embraer’s new turboprop design have formed the basis for the 100-150 seat Boeing single-aisle aircraft had the joint venture proceeded?

A former Boeing engineer thinks it might have.

The aft-mounted, open rotor engines and the ability to switch later to hydrogen fuel represent the kind of advances Boeing could use to restore its leadership role in commercial aviation.

Under the proposed JV, which Boeing ash-canned in April 2020, Embraer would have been responsible for development of the 100-150 seat aircraft Boeing needs to replace the 737-7 and 737-8.

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Embraer delivers first positive quarterly result since 1Q2018, shows revised E3 turboprop

By Bjorn Fehrm

August 13, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Embraer presented strong 2Q2021 results today. It could deliver a quarterly net profit of $44m (-$119m), the first positive quarter since 1Q2018. Revenue for the quarter was up 110% at $1,131m versus $537m in 2Q2020.

The company delivered 14 airliners and 20 biz jets, up from 4 and 13 a year ago. The company now delivered guidance for 2021, with deliveries at 45-50 regional jets and 90-95 biz jets. Revenue lands at $4.0bn-$4.5bn with free cash flow at break-even to $150m.

Figure 1. The revised desing of the E3 turboprop. Source: Embraer.

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Updated: Porter confirms E195-E2 after persistent denials in May

By Scott Hamilton

July 12, 2021, © Leeham News: Canada’s Porter Airlines today announced an order for 30 Embraer E195-E2s. The move comes shortly after the Canadian government agreed to loan hundreds of millions of dollars to Porter in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Porter ceased operations shortly into the start of the pandemic in March 2020. It resumes service in September.

Embraer announced the order, from an unidentified customer, on April 23. Airfinance Journal first reported that the customer was Porter Airlines, which the company denied. LNA confirmed May 19 that the airplanes were going to Porter. Porter declined to directly comment on LNA’s confirmation.

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Pontifications: The reshaped commercial aviation sector

By Scott Hamilton

July 12, 2021, © Leeham News: With Washington State and the US open for business following nearly 18 months of COVID-pandemic shut-down, there is a lot of optimism in commercial aviation.

In the US, airline passenger traffic headcounts are matching or exceeding pre-pandemic TSA screening numbers. Airlines are placing orders with Airbus, Boeing and even Embraer in slowly increasing frequency.

The supply chain to these three OEMs looks forward to a return to previous production rates.

It’s great to see and even feel this optimism. But the recovery will nevertheless be a slow if steady incline.

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HOTR: Porter confirmed as customer in E195-E2 deal

By the Leeham News Team

May 19, 2021, © Leeham News: Embraer got a big boost for its E-Jet E2 order book in April when it announced a firm deal for 30 E195 E2s.

“On April 23, the Company signed a firm order for 30 E195-E2 jets with an undisclosed customer, with deliveries starting in 2022. The 30 firm orders will be included in Embraer’s second quarter backlog,” Embraer said in its April 29 earnings release.

Embraer delayed E-Jet deliveries because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Thin backlogs for the E2 pre-date the pandemic. This order, with deliveries starting next year, illustrates Embraer’s thin skyline.

Airfinance Journal on May 13 first reported the customer is Canada’s Porter Airlines. Porter, pre-pandemic, operated De Havilland Dash 8-400s exclusively from Billy Bishop Airport, Toronto’s downtown in-city airport. AFJ cited multiple sources. Porter Airlines denied it ordered the airplane or that it had signed lease deals to acquire the E2. The carrier told the Toronto Globe and Mail it isn’t going to “switch” fleet types.

However, LNA confirmed this week that the airplanes are going to Porter. Porter declined to answer any questions from LNA.

“Our response to this speculation has been provided to others and published. We do not have anything further to add,” Porter said in an email.

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2021 fleet trends: small jets get bigger, bigger jets get smaller – and the old makes way for the new

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By Judson Rollins


May 13, 2021, © Leeham News: Aviation data provider Cirium said last week that just under 7,850 commercial aircraft were still in storage, down from 8,684 at the beginning of the year and a peak of 16,522 at the apex of the COVID-19 crisis last April.

Although there was an initial spike in aircraft retirements in March and April 2020, the total number has stayed in line with historical norms to date. However, order books for most types have stagnated or even gone backward since the start of the pandemic.

A few trends are becoming clear: larger single-aisles are thriving, larger twin-aisles are disappearing, and sub-100-seat orders are flatlining. Not surprisingly, older-generation aircraft are disappearing at an accelerated rate.

  • Airlines are upgauging their single-aisle orders in anticipation of lower yields and competitive battles.
  • Widebody order books continue to struggle; the bigger the airplane, the worse the demand.
  • Regional jet and turboprop order backlogs have stagnated.

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Embraer shows some improvement YOY

April 29, 2021, © Leeham News: Embraer posted improvement in some of its year-over-year financial results today.

Revenue for the first quarter was up 27.3%, from $633.9m to $807.3m. The 1Q20 period was largely unaffected by the global COVID-19 pandemic, which didn’t hit until March 10. But Embraer Commercial was at a standstill, awaiting approval from the European Union on the proposed joint venture with Boeing. (Boeing terminated the JV late in April.)

Embraer reported an EBIT loss last year of $46.9m. It still reported a loss this year, of $33.1m. Adjusted net losses for the two quarters weren’t much different: $104m in 1Q20 vs $95.9m this year. But Net income attributable to shareholders improved from a loss of $292m to a loss of $89.7m.

Adjusted Free Cash Flow remained negative YOY but improved from $676.5m to $226.6m.

Embraer delivered nine E-Jets, including five E195-E2s, and 13 executive jets during the quarter. Post quarter, EMB signed a firm order for 30 E-195 E2s with an unidentified customer. Deliveries begin in 2022.

Initial analyst reaction is below.

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Pontifications: Embraer’s China ambitions

March 22, 2021, © Leeham News: Embraer wants to become a big player in China.

By Scott Hamilton

“We see a huge market potential there,” said Arjan Meijer, CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation, in an interview with Nikkei Asia. The news outlet continued, “The company expects worldwide demand for 5,500 jets with up to 150 seats over the next 10 years. A third of that will come from Asia, with a large part of it from China, Meijer added.”

However, China presents risks and few rewards to companies wishing to gain a significant foothold. This is especially true for commercial aviation companies. China has high ambitions for the commercial aviation industry. Partnering with China in this sector produced more heartbreak than success.

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Embraer 2020 results

By Bjorn Fehrm

March 19, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Embraer presented its full-year 2020 results today. Revenue for 2020 was down 31% at $3,771m versus $5,463m in 2019. The resulting loss was $323m, compared with $77m 2019.

The company managed to stay cash neutral with $2.8bn at exit 2020, the same as when exiting 2019. Due to the uncertainty of how COVID-19 develops during 2021, there was no 2021 guidance.

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