Forecast 2022: Embraer

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By Bjorn Fehrm


January 10, 2022, © Leeham News: Embraer is the dominant regional jet aircraft supplier with a worldwide footprint and faces little competition to its products below 100 seats.

Between 100 to 150 seats, the situation is another after Bombardier “sold” its CSeries project to Airbus. Airbus’ might as aircraft OEM rekindled the CSeries as Airbus A220, and it’s now a vivid competitor to Embraer over 100 seats.

With a market it dominates and another where competition increases, we look at what’s in store for Embraer for 2022 as it hopes to exit the COVID pandemic for better times.

Embraer’s revised Turboprop. Source: Embraer.

  • Embraer is a complete supplier with capable development, production, and worldwide support for its regional jets.
  • Everything would be good had Bombardier, a player the size of Embraer, slugged it out with CSeries. The hand-over of the modern aircraft to Airbus changed the competitive landscape.

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P&W, Embraer pause E175-E2 engine; MTU writes off investment, sees no revenue in future for SpaceJet engine

By Scott Hamilton

Exclusive: Dec. 21, 2021, © Leeham News: Pratt & Whitney and Embraer agreed to suspend further development and production of the PW1700G for three years, LNA learned.

Another airplane without an engine.

PW and Embraer did not respond to inquiries. Separately, the aerospace company MTU reported earlier this year that it wrote off its entire investment in the PW1200G and expects no revenue from the program in the future.

Update: P&W provided this statement Dec. 22: “As already informed to the market, Embraer and P&W are evaluating E175-E2 program timing given market conditions and scope clause.

The engine was developed for the Mitsubishi MRJ. Development of the MRJ90 and follow-on MRJ70 were refined to the M100 SpaceJet when analysis concluded the MRJ90 wasn’t economically competitive with the E190-E2. A myriad of technical flaws also was discovered in the flight test vehicles that rendered the original design uncertifiable.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries indefinitely suspended the SpaceJet program in 2020. Embraer rescheduled the entry-into-service of the E175-E2 from 2021 twice, now targeting EIS for 2025. This depends on US pilot unions relaxing an airplane weight restriction in the labor contracts. The E175-E2 weight exceeds that allowed in the contracts.

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HOTR: Restarting M100 SpaceJet program is a very, very long runway

By the Leeham News Team

Dec. 21, 2021, © Leeham News: Speculation that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) may restart the M100 SpaceJet program seems unrealistic.

The consulting firm Avascent on Dec. 8 reported that MHI and the Japanese government may complete the M90 SpaceJet (formerly the MRJ90) airplanes. This could lead to restarting the M100 SpaceJet.

LNA believes the former might happen. It doubts the latter will. Here’s why.

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HOTR: Dropping Embraer comes back to bite Boeing

By the Leeham News Staff

Updated with details of Air France – KLM order

Dec. 16, 2021, © Leeham News: When Boeing decided to drop its joint venture plan with Embraer, there were good business reasons to do so.

The grounding of the 737 MAX was dragging on much longer than anyone ever expected, and there was no end in sight. The coronavirus infections exploded into a global pandemic the month before. Air transportation plunged as much as 95%. Airlines were grounding fleets and some, at that point, looked certain to go bankrupt or go out of business. Boeing was bleeding cash and debt exploded by more than $20bn. The company was in survival mode.

Embraer faced the same industrial and customer challenges Boeing did. And while none of its airplanes were grounded, the E175-E2 turned out to be an airplane with no customers because the US market for which it was designed disappeared. Restrictions in pilot contracts limiting the weight of airlines in regional operations killed the airplane.

Finally, Embraer’s market value at the time the joint venture was agreed was set at $4.5bn. By April 2020, it had fallen to $1.25bn. Given the business environment and the drop in value, why pay the higher price?

With Qantas Airways abandoning Boeing, we now know why going through with the deal may have been smart.

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2022 Outlook depends largely on pandemic, Boeing recovery

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By the Leeham News Team

Dec. 13, 2021, © Leeham News: Attempting a forecast for the new year historically has been reasonably easy. One just started with the stability of the current years, and maybe the previous one or two years, and looked forward to next year.

Until the Boeing 737 MAX grounding, COVID-19 pandemic, and the Boeing 787 suspension of deliveries.

These events upended everything. Boeing’s outlook for 2020 depended on what happened to return the MAX to service. The grounding, initially expected by many to be measured in months, ultimately was measured in years.

The 2020 outlook for the rest of the aircraft manufacturers blew up that March with the global pandemic.

Then, in October 2020, Boeing suspended deliveries of the 787, exacerbating its cash flow crunch.

Commercial aviation began to recover some in late 2020. Airbus, which reduced but didn’t suspend deliveries throughout 2020, saw signs of hope for the narrowbody market—less so for widebody airplanes.

There is a lot of uncertainty, however, that makes looking even one year ahead challenging.

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HOTR: 787 delivery restart appears to slip to April: customers

By the Leeham News Staff

Nov. 30, 2021, © Leeham News: Plans to resume deliveries of the Boeing 787—halted since October 2020—appear to be slipping again.

Customers tell LNA that deliveries may not resume until April, a slip of one or two months from the previous unofficial timeline. Boeing hasn’t announced any timeline, deferring to the Federal Aviation Administration’s review of plans to fix issues related to composite delamination and fuselage section mating.

“As we have previously shared, we are completing comprehensive inspections and associated rework across 787 production and within the supply chain, while holding detailed, transparent discussions with the FAA, suppliers, and our customers,” a Boeing spokesperson wrote LNA in an email.

“Work continues in our production facility and rates will continue to be dynamic as we focus on eliminating traveled work and prioritize resources to support our inspection and rework efforts. We are taking the time needed to ensure the highest levels of quality, and while these efforts will continue to impact deliveries, we’re confident this is the right approach to drive stability and first-time quality across our operations and to position the program for the long term as market demand recovers. None of the issues have been determined to present a safety of flight concern with respect to the active in-service fleet.”

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Pontifications: Engines drive timing of new Embraer TPNG

The first report appeared Oct. 18, 2021.

By Scott Hamilton

Oct. 25, 2021, © Leeham News: Embraer appears marching toward launching a new turboprop aircraft next year with a targeted 2027 entry into service.

The timing will be determined by the engine. Pratt & Whitney, GE Aviation and Rolls-Royce have development programs. PW and GE are farthest along. PW is thought to have the best chance of winning Embraer’s business. (Pratt & Whitney supplies the engines for the E2 jet. GE supplied the engines for the E1.)

In an interview at the IATA AGM Oct. 3-5 in Boston, Arjan Meijer, the president of Embraer Commercial Aviation, said the competition remains open today.

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Pontifications: Embraer’s strategy for the TPNG

By Scott Hamilton

Oct. 18, 2021, © Leeham News: It was October 2015 when Bjorn Fehrm and I first went to Sao Jose de Campos to visit Embraer’s headquarters. Among the topics discussed then was the prospect of developing a new turboprop airliner. The E2 program was well underway and one day, Embraer’s engineers would need something else to do.

At the time, officials weren’t enthusiastic about a turboprop. The cost to develop one was estimated to be about $2.5bn, about the same as the E2, they said. But the market was much smaller, only about 2,000-2,400 airplanes over 20 years.

Much has changed in six years. The E2 program is all but finished, with only the E175-E2 left. Periodic performance improvement packages will be developed. The proposed joint venture with Boeing, in which Embraer’s engineers were going to play a big role in two new airplane programs, is dead.

EcoAviation demands have risen to the forefront. Bombardier exited the Q400 turboprop business and the buyer, Longview Aviation Capital, “suspended” production during the COVID pandemic. Few believe it will be restarted. Airbus, which owns 50% of ATR, made hydrogen power a top priority. ATR may be the vehicle through which initial development is sold as a turboprop.

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Pontifications: Does Embraer’s turboprop design foretell what Boeing needs?

By Scott Hamilton

Aug. 23, 2021, © Leeham News: Could Embraer’s new turboprop design have formed the basis for the 100-150 seat Boeing single-aisle aircraft had the joint venture proceeded?

A former Boeing engineer thinks it might have.

The aft-mounted, open rotor engines and the ability to switch later to hydrogen fuel represent the kind of advances Boeing could use to restore its leadership role in commercial aviation.

Under the proposed JV, which Boeing ash-canned in April 2020, Embraer would have been responsible for development of the 100-150 seat aircraft Boeing needs to replace the 737-7 and 737-8.

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Embraer delivers first positive quarterly result since 1Q2018, shows revised E3 turboprop

By Bjorn Fehrm

August 13, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Embraer presented strong 2Q2021 results today. It could deliver a quarterly net profit of $44m (-$119m), the first positive quarter since 1Q2018. Revenue for the quarter was up 110% at $1,131m versus $537m in 2Q2020.

The company delivered 14 airliners and 20 biz jets, up from 4 and 13 a year ago. The company now delivered guidance for 2021, with deliveries at 45-50 regional jets and 90-95 biz jets. Revenue lands at $4.0bn-$4.5bn with free cash flow at break-even to $150m.

Figure 1. The revised desing of the E3 turboprop. Source: Embraer.

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