Delta asks Commerce to redefine scope of Boeing-Bombardier case

Bombardier CS100.

Aug. 8, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Delta Air Lines asked the US Department of Commerce to redefine the scope of the Boeing complaint of Bombardier price dumping in its CS100 order with the carrier, filings at DOC show.

Delta asked the DOC to redefine the aircraft definition from 100-150 seat to 125-150 seats, arguing that Boeing doesn’t make in airplane in the 100-125 seat size and therefore isn’t harmed by competition in the sale of the 110-seat CS100 that Delta ordered.

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Mid-Year production/delivery update: Bombardier, Embraer

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Introduction

July 31, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It’s time for our mid-year update of the Big Four airframe manufacturers and their production/delivery outlooks.

Our update is through June 30. Although Boeing provides weekly order updates, Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer only do so monthly.

Our update data relies on the Airfinance Journal Fleet Tracker.

Today we look at Bombardier and Embraer.

Summary
  • Bombardier’s CSeries production skyline is said by the company to be sold out through 2019, but there are some “dicey” customers as early as next year.
  • BBD’s big challenge comes in 2020, given the goal of producing 120 airplanes a year.
  • The CRJ and Q400 lines continue to be a major challenge.
  • Embraer’s production line looks nearly full in 2018, but it, too has some customer issues.

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Embraer’s 2Q results: profits up, backlog declines

July 28, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Embraer reported first half net income of $101.6m after a $59.1m net profit for the second quarter.

Revenues for the half were $2.8bn and $1.77bn for the quarter.

EMB delivered 35 EJets during the quarter and 53 for the half.

Free cash flow for the quarter was $220m but just $20.7m for the half.

The company had $3.55bn in cash and securities at the end of the half.

The backlog of all civil, corporate and military programs declined from $19.2bn at March 31 to $18.5bn at June 30. A year ago, the backlog was $21.9bn.

Source: Embraer

The press release is here.

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Pontifications: JADC 20-year forecast: VLA, NMA and other data

By Scott Hamilton

July 24, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The Japan Aircraft Development Corp (JADC) just published its 2017-2037 jet and turboprop forecast. JADC forecasts a demand for 33,336 jet airliners and some 2,000 turboprops.

JADC is partly owned by Mitsubishi, which is developing the MRJ70/90 and which is on several Boeing programs.

I like the JADC forecast because it segments the seating categories in more detail than Airbus and Boeing and somewhat differently than Bombardier and Embraer.

I also view JADC as having less of an axe to grind than the Big Four OEMs.

A couple of quick take-aways:

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Bjorn’s Corner: Electric aircraft, Part 4

By Bjorn Fehrm

July 21, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: In this Corner, we will start looking at the mass of the different components in a hybrid electric propulsion system compared with a classical turbofan propulsion.

Our propulsion project is for a regional airliner with 50 seats. The segment marked the start of the regional airliner with Bombardier’s CRJ-200 and Embraer’s ERJ-145. Today, the segment is more and more flown with Turboprops like ATR42-500.

Figure 1. Zunum aero regional airliners and a NASA boundary layer ingestion airliner. Source: Zunum aero.

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Pontifications: Mississippi’s aerospace footprint

By Scott Hamilton

July 17, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Living in the Seattle area, the highest profile, dominant industry is the commercial aerospace sector.

Boeing, of course, headlines just about everything when it comes to aviation.

Boeing’s competition is principally Airbus—or at least it used to be until Boeing claimed teeny tiny Bombardier, a company one-sixth the size of Boeing’s revenues, is poised to put Boeing out of business with BBD’s CSeries.

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Jet sales in 75-150 seat lag Airbus, Boeing

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Introduction

The Mitsubishi MRJ90 hasn’t recorded a sale in a year. Photo by Scott Hamilton.

July 13, 2017, © Leeham Co.: While analysts and reporters focus on the high-profile order competition between Airbus and Boeing, it’s time to look at Bombardier and Embraer, along with the 75-150 seat sector.

Boeing is doing better than expected this year, due largely to the launch of the 737 MAX 10. Airbus is struggling year-to-date, but received a big boost post-Paris Air Show with an agreement to sell 140 A320s and A350s to China. At this stage, it’s not a firm order, however.

How are Bombardier and Embraer doing in their core markets of 75-150 seats?

Just awful.

Sukhoi and Mitsubishi aren’t doing any better.

Summary
  • Few new sales in 2017 in the 75-150 seat sector.
  • Low fuel prices, Scope Clause and general order downturn converge.
  • Embraer’s Paris Air Show results boosted this OEM’s year-to-date performance.

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Commercialized C-130 beats rivals, crew says

June 18, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The commercial offering of the venerable Lockheed Martin C-130J, the LM-100J, is here at the Paris Air Show, along with its rivals, the Embraer KC-390 and Airbus A400M.

The crew with Lockheed Martin waves off the competition.

Neither competitor can match the LM/C-130, they say.

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A view around the Paris Air Show

June 17, 2017, (c) Leeham Co.: It’s surprising that many hall and chalet exhibits are still in a state of construction as LNC walked around the Paris Air Show Saturday, but we’ve noted this before.

Meanwhile, here are a few photos:

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LNC is off to the Paris Air Show

June 15, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Leeham News and Comment is off to the Paris Air Show.

Coverage will begin Sunday, with several events in advance of the show’s official opening Monday. We’ll be there through Thursday, with the end-of-show press conference by Airbus.

We provided a full preview May 22 for our paywall customers.

Here’s an update, in an abbreviated version:

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