Nov. 13, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Washington State’s top aerospace official, John Thornquist, resigned early this month, complaining that the State Legislature cut the Department of Commerce’s budget 78% over the past three years—making it impossible for Commerce to promote Washington aerospace.
Sept. 13, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier wasn’t “fully at the top of its game for focus and messaging on the Q400 and CRJ,” a top official admitted Tuesday. But the company is “turning that around” and initial results were seen at last summer’s Paris Air Show with a spurt of orders for the turboprop airliner.
Colin Bole, SVP Commercial made the remarks at BBD’s media day at its Mirabel CSeries/CRJ production site.
Aug. 7, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Amid talk that Middle Eastern airlines, which are the largest group of users for wide-body aircraft, may defer Airbus and Boeing airplanes, there are conflicting signs that the bleak view of the sector isn’t as weak as perceived.
Just last week, two big lessors—Air Lease Corp and AerCap–of widebody airplanes said they are confident in the sector.
AerCap ordered 30 Boeing 787s at the Paris Air Show. ALC has a significant order of Airbus A330neos.
And, the chairman of Emirates Airline said in an interview with the region’s The National newspaper that despite the current challenges at the carrier, it expects to announce an order before the end of the year for either the 787 or the Airbus A350—and possibly the Airbus A380.
Quantities on the former weren’t discussed. Airbus is pitching 20 A380s, according to accounts.
Still, there are a large number of Boeing 777s and Airbus A330s coming off lease in the next few years that could slow orders if these aircraft are offered on the secondary market with low enough lease rates.
July 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It’s mid-way through 2017 and LNC is taking its second look at production and delivery stream flows for the Big Four airframe manufacturers.
We examined Boeing Monday in advance of its earnings call Wednesday. Today we look at Airbus in advance of its earnings call today. We look at Bombardier and Embraer next Monday.
We use the Airfinance Journal Fleet Tracker as the basis for our exam.
July 24, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing’s 2Q earnings call is Wednesday and analysts will be watching for information about the 787 deferred production costs, potential production rate changes for the 787 and for the 777 Classic.
We looked at the 787 costs last week.
It’s also mid-year and LNC is taking an updated look and production and delivery rate streams for Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer. The Airfinance Journal Fleet Tracker is our resource for this report.
We begin with Boeing in advance of its earnings call.
July 24, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The Japan Aircraft Development Corp (JADC) just published its 2017-2037 jet and turboprop forecast. JADC forecasts a demand for 33,336 jet airliners and some 2,000 turboprops.
JADC is partly owned by Mitsubishi, which is developing the MRJ70/90 and which is on several Boeing programs.
I like the JADC forecast because it segments the seating categories in more detail than Airbus and Boeing and somewhat differently than Bombardier and Embraer.
I also view JADC as having less of an axe to grind than the Big Four OEMs.
A couple of quick take-aways:
July 17, 2017, © Leeham Co.: We’re half way through 2017. Boeing reported orders through July 11, a week ago. Airbus won’t update its July orders until the end of the month.
Through July 11, Boeing reported 116 net wide-body orders: 15 for the 767, 33 for the 777 and 75 for the 787. Net cancellations of -7 for the 747 are included in the net 116 figure.
The 15 767s were not commercial models, however, but 767-2C tankers for the USAF.
Over at Airbus, none of China’s 40 commitments announced July 5 for 40 A350s are in the June summary, and won’t be in the Orders tally until the commitments turn into firm orders. Through June, airbus had net 26 widebody orders: three A330-200s and 29 A350-900. There were cancellations of four A330-800s and two A380s.
If the 40 China A350s were included, this would bring Airbus to 66 widebody orders, still well short of Boeing’s YTD figure.
July 13, 2017, © Leeham Co.: While analysts and reporters focus on the high-profile order competition between Airbus and Boeing, it’s time to look at Bombardier and Embraer, along with the 75-150 seat sector.
Boeing is doing better than expected this year, due largely to the launch of the 737 MAX 10. Airbus is struggling year-to-date, but received a big boost post-Paris Air Show with an agreement to sell 140 A320s and A350s to China. At this stage, it’s not a firm order, however.
How are Bombardier and Embraer doing in their core markets of 75-150 seats?
Sukhoi and Mitsubishi aren’t doing any better.
July 3, 2017, © Leeham Co.: There were conversions of 214 orders from other 737 MAX programs in favor of the 361 orders and commitments announced at the Paris Air Show for the launch of the 737 MAX 10.
Aside from the easily identifiable 100 MAX 9 orders from United Airlines, the other conversions weren’t readily apparent.
An analysis by LNC indicates that about half of the conversions came from the MAX 8.