Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 6. Fuselage manufacturing March 31, 2023
- Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 6P. Fuselage manufacturing March 31, 2023
- MCAS, The Aircraft Certification Act and the unintended consequences of Congressional Intervention March 30, 2023
- Pontifications: Technical challenges for UAMs, et al, only part of the problems March 28, 2023
- An uneven financial recovery among OEMs and Suppliers March 27, 2023
‘What kind of vision is that?’ Industry analysts scorch Boeing and CEO Calhoun
By Bryan Corliss
Feb. 7, 2023, © Leeham News – Less than a week after Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun stood in the company’s Everett factory and vowed to “maintain this leadership culture forever,” a panel of top aerospace industry analysts blasted Boeing’s corporate culture and criticized Calhoun’s leadership, saying he lacks vision, industry knowledge – even charisma.
Aerospace analyst Kevin Michaels.
“No new aircraft until 2035,” said AeroDynamic Advisory Managing Director Kevin Michaels. “What kind of vision is that?”
Having Calhoun at the helm of Boeing at this juncture is “the worst-case scenario,” said Michaels’ partner at AeroDynamic, Richard Aboulafia. “(Calhoun) is somebody not only not from this industry, but someone who maintains a willful ignorance of it.”
The challenges Boeing faces mending fences with all the groups it has disappointed or alienated in the past 20 years – customers, suppliers, regulators and workers – are immense and it may be more than one person can handle, said Bank of America Managing Director Ron Epstein, who also was on the panel.
“It’s a hard, hard, hard job right now, to be the president of the Boeing Co.,” Epstein said.
- Panel rips lack of new product development
- Without a new airplane, whole industry is challenged
- Panel: Boeing struggles to retain engineering talent
- Michaels: Suppliers in ‘crisis’
The Economics of the 767 and A330 at Seven and Eight abreast
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Dec. 8, 2022, © Leeham News: In a previous article, we started speculating what an NMA type of aircraft would look like based on a Boeing 767 cross-section. An airliner’s cross-section decides the design of a large number of parts in an airplane.
In essence, a fuselage is a tube with a constant cross-section where the constant parts are repeated framewise to form the fuselage. It’s finished with a tapering forward cockpit and a rear tapering empennage.
We now look at what could have been a passenger version of an NMA that would have used the Boeing 767 cross-section with adaptations. To understand its economic impact, we make a comparison where we take a standard 767-300ER, then modify it to an NMA type fuselage and compare it to the competition in the size class, the A330-200 and -800.
As before, we do this by flying the world’s busiest long-haul route, London Heathrow, to New York JFK.
Summary
- An NMA based on an improved 767 fuselage cross-section would have been a very competitive airliner
- I would be the ideal replacement for the Boeing 757, 767, and 787-8.
With Boeing’s decision against new airplanes, Airbus will stand down, too
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By Scott Hamilton
Kiran Rao. Credit: Airborne Capital.
Nov. 14, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing’s decision to suspend the launch of any new airplane until the middle of the next decade means innovation of any kind from any company is largely dead for the next decade.
Airbus won’t launch a new airplane either, now that Boeing has stood down, says its former chief strategic officer, Kiran Rao. Rao is now an advisor to airlines and lessors. He had been with Airbus for 25 years in sales and product strategy.
While Boeing’s decision to suspend new airplane development casts a dark cloud over its strategic future, Airbus now is going to rest on its own status quo, Rao said.
Summary
- Airbus engineers will atrophy.
- Boeing was “one step away from checkmate” against Airbus in 2005-2006 and made a big mistake not taking up the opportunity.
- GE and Safran don’t want to innovate. Pratt & Whitney can’t do much beyond today.
- Boeing should have launched the NMA. It would have beaten the A321XLR.
- The NMA would have created a new market.
Jump in R&D spending at Boeing Commerical Airplanes points to renewed studies for new airplane
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By Scott Hamilton
Return of the NMA? Photo credit: Leeham News.
Aug. 1, 2022, © Leeham News: Buried in Boeing’s second quarter results released last week was a sharp jump in research and development spending.
It wasn’t just a small increase at Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA). Boeing spent more on research and development in the quarter and the half year. Expenses hit $1.33bn for the half-year compared with $996m a year earlier. For the quarter, expenses rose $996m vs $497m. R&D for Commercial Airplanes rose to $693m for the half and $372m for the quarter, compared with $524m and $255m, increases of 32% and 46%, respectively.
Spending is still short of the peak in 2019. But the reduced spending post-grounding of the 737 MAX and the COVID-19 pandemic was reversed in the first six months of this year.
The future small twin-aisle market
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
July 21, 2022, © Leeham News: As outlined in the previous article, there are now only 46 orders for twin-aisle aircraft seating 250 or fewer passengers in long-haul cabin configuration (39 Boeing 787-8s and seven Airbus A330-800s). After adjusting for orders at risk, the tally is 28.
However, there are more than 700 older-generation aircraft in service in this segment. The lack of airline and lessor orders points to an inadequate OEM offering. Boeing is not eager to build 787-8s due to the lack of commonality with the other Dreamliner variants. Airbus’ A330-800 has meaningfully worse economics than the -900.
Among the several aircraft concepts Boeing is currently studying, a twin-aisle aircraft with up to 5,000 nautical miles nominal range for this market segment is among them.
LNA analyses in this article the addressable market for small twin-aisle aircraft.
Summary
- The addressable replacement market;
- New order opportunities;
- The impact of growth assumptions;
- Substitution effects and freighter market.
What Boeing needs to do for digital, production transformation for new commercial airliner
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By Scott Hamilton
Greg Hyslop. Credit: Leeham News.
July 4, 2022, © Leeham News: When Boeing launches its next new commercial airplane program, whatever the design, advanced development, and production are intended to be a key part of the plan.
Officials have been hinting at this approach since the administration of CEO Jim McNerney. His successor, Dennis Muilenburg, opened the veil a bit more. David Calhoun, Muilenburg’s successor, has been more open about the concept.
Last month, Greg Hyslop, the executive vice president of Engineering, Test & Technology and the chief engineer for Boeing, was the most revealing yet. In a briefing in advance of the Farnborough Air Show that begins on July 18, detailed how digital design and advanced production will fit into the Next Boeing Airplane (NBA) plan.
Related Article
Boeing’s new approach to aircraft design, production, and assembly is illustrated above. The Defense unit used this for the T-7 Red Hawk trainer and the MQ-25 unmanned Navy refueling tanker. But a lot of work is necessary to migrate this to Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Credit: Boeing.
However, Hyslop acknowledged that these advanced design and production processes must transition from low-rate defense projects to high-rate commercial airplanes. This is the “maturity” Boeing CEO said recently is required before the NBA proceeds.
Summary
- Scalability is key to migrating digital and production transformation from defense to commercial.
- Lessons learned from 787 an important step.
- Rebuilding the workforce also required for the next new Boeing airplane.
How Boeing is Rebuilding Engineering Excellence
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 9, 2022, © Leeham News: As described in our Monday article, Boeing is preparing for its Next Boeing Airplane (NBA). At the same time, the company is hard at work to ensure this will be no repeat of the 787 and 737 MAX program debacles.
The 2022 Chief Aerospace Safety Officer Report was issued two weeks ago. It gives insight into the work that shall ensure such failures won’t happen again. Here is what the report says about how Boeing is rebuilding its Engineering Excellence.
Summary
- The 787 and 737 MAX failures came from a company culture where engineering excellence played second fiddle to short-term business objectives.
- Boeing has now made changes from the board level to how it organizes its engineers. These changes go in the right direction, but will they be enough?
HOTR: Consensus that Boeing must launch new airplane in 2023 or 2024
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 15, 2022, © Leeham News: There is a belief that when Boeing clears out much of its 737 MAX inventory, resumes delivery of the 787, and reduces a good portion of its debt that it will launch a new airplane program.
The Next Boeing Airplane (NBA), as LNA calls it, could be launched in 2023 or 2024, which seems to be a growing consensus.
Consultant Michel Merluzeau, who does work for Boeing on occasion, predicted last week that the NBA could be launched late next year or early the following year. The airplane would be a 225-240 passenger aircraft (two-class) and a single aisle. This is like the Boeing 757—which largely has exited passenger service—and the upper limits of the A321neo. Merluzeau made his predictions at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference.
Boeing’s apparent shifting product strategy
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Aug. 2, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing last week reiterated it believes the 777-9 will be certified and delivered in late 2023. CEO David Calhoun also said, “I’m confident that might be the next of our programs.”
Let’s set aside for the moment whether the EIS prediction becomes reality and assume Boeing will be correct. Let’s assume the 777-XF will be the next program launched. The larger question then becomes, what does this mean for the Next Boeing Airplane (NBA)? And what are the implications for Airbus?
Summary
- The NBA launch seems unlikely in 2022; 2023 may be the target.
- But with the 777-XF moving up in priorities, will the NBA continue to slide to the right?
- What is the Airbus response to an NBA?
- Or, should Airbus move first to further preempt the NBA?
NBA Single or Dual Aisle Airline preferences
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Credit: Leeham News
May 10, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing has been studying the launch of a clean-sheet design aircraft for at least a decade. Studies included a single-aisle design but favored a twin-aisle concept before the 737 MAX launch in 2011. As time went on, the twin-aisle concept morphed into a focus on 767-sized dual-aisle with the New Midmarket Airplane (NMA).
The combination of the 737 MAX crisis, Calhoun’s arrival as CEO, and the COVID-19 pandemic led Boeing to shelve plans to launch the NMA in early 2020. However, the American OEM hasn’t stood idle despite sizable layoffs and R&D budget cuts.
LNA reported Boeing’s renewed focus on dual-aisle design and production systems and studied the tradeoffs between a single- and dual-aisle. The NMA has morphed into the concept of a New Boeing Airplane (NBA).
A critical mass of airlines needs to be willing and able to buy a new aircraft to justify a launch. Most observers agree that Boeing needs to launch a new plane to address the weakening market share in the large single-aisle market. However, there isn’t a consensus whether a single- or dual-aisle is the way to go.
LNA analyses in this article the design preferences of the airlines that could be interested in the NBA.
Summary
- Dual-aisle preferences;
- Different opinions about the required range;
- Low-cost carrier preferences;
- Lessor preferences.
