Leeham News and Comment
Intelligence for the Aviation Industry
Leeham News and Comment
- Analysis: Bombardier continues to improve Q400 model August 21, 2018
- UTC Aerospace Systems sees big benefits from additive manufacturing August 20, 2018
- Pontifications: Workforce shortage hurts entire supply chain August 20, 2018
- Bjorn’s Corner: Supersonic transport revival, Part 2 August 17, 2018
- Can an Airbus A321XLR kill NMA’s business case? August 16, 2018
UTC Aerospace Systems sees big benefits from additive manufacturing
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Introduction
By Dan Catchpole
August 20, 2018, © Leeham News: There is a fundamental tension in aerospace’s DNA.
UTC Aerospace Systems’ executive Paula Hay is leading the aerospace supplier’s adoption of additive manufacturing. (Image via LinkedIn)
It has been there since Kitty Hawk: Balancing the hunger to push technological boundaries with the desire to stay safe.
The Wright Flyer only flew after years of painstakingly testing airframes and engines. That tension between being bold and being safe is evident today in commercial aerospace’s adoption of additive manufacturing.
Just about every major player in the aerospace industry is exploring additive manufacturing, or 3D printing. Most of the integration has been at the margins. The technology is still young enough that there is no clear leader in its application to aerospace. Everyone is trying to find how to get the most from it.
Summary
- Begin with mechanical, not structural systems.
- Big parts reductions.
- Big reduction in lead time.
Can an Airbus A321XLR kill NMA’s business case?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 16, 2018, © Leeham News.: Airbus is working on improving the A321LR so it can fly more of the missions Boeing’s NMA is aimed for, according to Aviation Week. By it, Airbus could ideally make the NMA business case a No-Go.
To understand how much of the NMA market an A321XLR can address we need to understand the limitations of the A321LR and what can be done about them. And how fast such improvements could be implemented.
Summary:
- The A321LR is limited in both Take-Off Weight and fuel capacity to fly further than today’s aircraft.
- How to lift these limitations without imposing large changes is the subject of this week’s article and a follow-up article next week.
Airbus Business Line Services ramping up
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Introduction
Aug. 13, 2018, © Leeham News: While Boeing aggressively pushes its new business unit, Boeing Global Services (BGS), on a trajectory for a $50bn revenue target 
in 10 years, Airbus quietly has its own services operation.
Airbus services has a goal to reach $10bn in revenue over the next decade for its commercial services. In 2017, the Airbus Group revenue of $9bn was split roughly evenly between commercial, helicopters and defense.
BGS’ revenue target includes all services.
Unlike BGS, Airbus services are not a separate business unit/profit center. Ironically, the Airbus website describes the airliner-part as “commercial aircraft services.” Boeing’s airliner services operation was called Commercial Aviation Services, or CAS, before CAS merged with the Boeing defense operation to form BGS. The business line is promoted as Services by Airbus in collateral material.
Will rising fuel prices revitalize new aircraft sales? Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 9, 2018, © Leeham News.: We continue last week’s article about how changing fuel prizes affects fleet plans. Last week we studied how long-term rising fuel prices will favour new, more fuel-efficient single-aisle aircraft.
Now we make the analysis with Widebody aircraft in the segment 250 to 300 seats.
Summary:
- The crossover fuel price where a new generation Widebody is a good investment is slightly different than for the Narrowbody.
- As for the Narrowbody, the maintenance costs for a half-life Widebody and how these are handled influence the crossover fuel price.
777F, 747-8F orders help former’s bridge, solidify Boeing as freighter king
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Introduction
Aug. 6, 2018, © Leeham News: The surge of orders at the Farnborough Air Show for Boeing 777 and 747-8 freighters is welcome news for Boeing, which still had 
production gaps to bridge between the 777 Classic and the 777X.
The 747-8F orders, for five, helps breathe life into this struggling program.
The orders also add to Boeing’s virtual monopoly in new-build cargo aircraft backlogs.
Summary
- 777F orders and commitments now nearly double the remaining 777-300ER backlog.
- Three new-build freighter models swamp Airbus offering of just the A330-200F.
- Airbus pitching UPS for A330-800F.
Will increasing fuel prices revitalize new aircraft sales?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 2, 2018, © Leeham News.: As outlined in our Monday article the changing fuel price is affecting fleet plans. With increasing cost of fuel one would expect the airlines to order more new fuel-efficient aircraft.
The reaction from some US carriers has been the opposite, deferral of deliveries of new aircraft. While this might be a short-term reaction, long-term rising fuel prices will favor new, fuel-efficient aircraft. The fuel price level when this happens is today’s subject.
Summary:
- There are more factors than fuel and capital costs which influence buy new or keep old fleet, but the fuel and capital costs are the key variables.
- We also explore if there is a difference in crossover fuel price between Narrowbody or Widebody fleets.
The Southeast ramps up to challenge Washington State in aerospace
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Introduction
July 26, 2018, © Leeham News: The US Southeast continues its aggressive expansion in aerospace.
Washington State plots to win the assembly site for the prospective Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft and expand its space footprint.
In a way, it’s a defensive holding game for Washington, which faces competition from more than a half dozen states where the cost of doing business is cheaper and the regulatory environment is friendlier to business.
Summary
- Washington State doesn’t “get it,” say some suppliers and a trade group.
- Gearing up for NMA competition.
- Expanding the Southeast aerospace footprint.
First mover or not, that is the question: A321XLR vs NMA
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Introduction
July 23, 2018, © Leeham News: First mover or not first mover, that is the question.
In a pre-Farnborough Air Show interview with another publication, Airbus Group CEO Tom Enders said Airbus had the advantage of being the “first mover” by acquiring majority control of the Bombardier C Series program.
But when it comes to responding to the prospective Boeing New Midmarket Airplane (NMA, or 797), Airbus officials say they are content to wait and watch, willing to let Boeing make the first move.
At the same time, Airbus is proceeding with studies to further extend the range of the A321neo, in the form of the A321XLR. The airplane would have a range of 4,500nm, up from 4,100nm, according to information widely leaked at the air show.
Summary
- Airbus looks to squeeze Boeing from the bottom of the NMA market with A321neo improvements.
- Boeing sales chief dismisses A321XLR as a sub-set of a sub-set.
- But others see the basic A321 design as more flexible than the 737 MAX.
- Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury
Related stories
Airbus’ jetBlue A220 deal, first analysis
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
July 12, 2018, © Leeham News: The Airbus A220 won its first battle against Embraer’s E2 E-Jets, winning the order to replace 60 Embraer E190s at jetBlue. The airline held a telephone conference yesterday, presenting its choice of the A220 and explaining why it chose the A220.
JetBlue said in the call it was a close race. We analyze how close.
Summary:
- JetBlue showed the advantages the A220-300 would have against the incumbent E190. The expected improvement in costs of 25%-30% were identified.
- The airline wouldn’t be drawn on the difference between the A220-300 and Embraer’s E195-E2, the real competitor. Our performance model shows it’s a close race.