July 31, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It’s time for our mid-year update of the Big Four airframe manufacturers and their production/delivery outlooks.
Our update is through June 30. Although Boeing provides weekly order updates, Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer only do so monthly.
Our update data relies on the Airfinance Journal Fleet Tracker.
Today we look at Bombardier and Embraer.
July 24, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The Japan Aircraft Development Corp (JADC) just published its 2017-2037 jet and turboprop forecast. JADC forecasts a demand for 33,336 jet airliners and some 2,000 turboprops.
JADC is partly owned by Mitsubishi, which is developing the MRJ70/90 and which is on several Boeing programs.
I like the JADC forecast because it segments the seating categories in more detail than Airbus and Boeing and somewhat differently than Bombardier and Embraer.
I also view JADC as having less of an axe to grind than the Big Four OEMs.
A couple of quick take-aways:
July 13, 2017, © Leeham Co.: While analysts and reporters focus on the high-profile order competition between Airbus and Boeing, it’s time to look at Bombardier and Embraer, along with the 75-150 seat sector.
Boeing is doing better than expected this year, due largely to the launch of the 737 MAX 10. Airbus is struggling year-to-date, but received a big boost post-Paris Air Show with an agreement to sell 140 A320s and A350s to China. At this stage, it’s not a firm order, however.
How are Bombardier and Embraer doing in their core markets of 75-150 seats?
Sukhoi and Mitsubishi aren’t doing any better.
June 2, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Embraer today announced enhancements to its new E190-E2 and E195-E2 adding range to the 195 and improving hot-and-high and challenging airport performance for the 190.
John Slattery, president and CEO of Embraer Commercial Airplanes, revealed the improvements during its media days at its Melbourne (FL) facilities.
June 2, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Embraer is best known as a Brazilian company, but its US footprint and economic contributions are surprising for those who don’t delve into these sorts of things.
Gary Spulak, president, Embraer Aircraft Holding US, outlined EMB’s US presence on the first day of two days of pre-Paris Air Show briefings at the company’s Melbourne (FL) engineering, production and corporate aircraft center.
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 18, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In the second article about the US regional aircraft market, we looked at the cabins for the regional aircraft we examine. We started with looking at the typical classes and their seat ratios for the mainline aircraft the regional aircraft are feeding to/from. Then we mimicked that on the regional aircraft.
We filled the cabin with domestic First-class seats, then Premium economy and finally Economy until we got 76 seats or the cabin said stop.
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 11, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In the first article about the US regional aircraft market, we described the special rules that apply for outsourced regional airlines, operating for a mainline carrier. The mainline pilots limit the outsourcing via Scope clauses in their Union agreements to aircraft with 76 seats and 86,000lb Maximum Take-Off Weight (MTOW).
We identified potential aircraft that fit these restrictions in the first article. Now we examine their load carrying capability.
The MTOW limit sets a hard limit on how large aircraft can be used to house 76 seats. The mainline carriers want the regionals to mimic their domestic cabin classes in their aircraft. There shall be no disruption for a First class or Premium economy passenger whether on a mainline flight or on a feed flight to/from the hub.
The challenge is to accommodate the seating standard in the aircraft that come in question.
May 8, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The fallout and speculation continues after Boeing filed a complaint April 27 over Bombardier’s deal for 75+50 CSeries with Delta Air Lines.
The complaint was filed with the US government and the International Trade Commission.
Feb. 2, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Embraer’s new E2 jet faces a major challenge: the US pilot Scope Clause that limits the number, seats and weight of aircraft that can by operated by regional airlines on behalf of the US legacy carriers.
The E175 E2 exceeds the 86,000 lb weight limit in the Scope Clause. Unions declined last year to adjust this limit upward. The next round of contract talks begins in 2019.
Jan. 30, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier hopes to land a major, blue-chip order for its CSeries this year but otherwise isn’t counting on significant orders for its flagship airliner.
Officials don’t have available delivery slots until 2020, bar a few here and there, to attract sizeable orders.
The future of the aging CRJ could get a boost from recalcitrant Us labor unions who refuse to alter the 86,000 lb aircraft weight limit under the Scope Clauses. These make the Embraer E175-E2 and Mitsubishi MRJ90 too heavy for the regional airlines providing contract flying for the US majors.
The future of the Q400 turboprop looks bleak.