Pontifications: Assessing the impact of COVID-19: today’s take

By Scott Hamilton

April 6, 2020, © Leeham News: It’s going to be quite a while before there is a clear understanding how coronavirus will change commercial aviation.

LNA already touched on impacts to Airbus, Boeing and Embraer. None of it is good. For Boeing, burdened with the additional stress of the 737 MAX, is in the worst position. Even when the MAX is recertified, there won’t be many—or any—customers in a position to take delivery of the airplane.

Bearing in mind that what’s true today will change in a day, or even an hour, let’s take a rundown of where things seem to stand now.

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Surrounded by global bad news, Mitsubishi launches new SpaceJet testing

By Scott Hamilton

March 18, 2020, © Leeham News: While stock markets implode the world over and stock of Boeing, Airbus and Embraer take their own dives, Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp. (MITAC) was a rare piece of good news.

Flight Test Vehicle 10, an M90 Spacejet regional airliner, took off yesterday on its first flight in Japan.

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Pontifications: EU appears to be holding Boeing-Embraer JV hostage

Feb. 24, 2020, © Leeham News: I bet you’d never get an official of the European Union to go on the record.

By Scott Hamilton

But there sure seems to be plenty of anecdotal evidence that the approval of the proposed Boeing-Embraer joint venture is being held hostage.

The EU is plenty vocal about being pissed at the Trump Administration’s trade war against Europe. It’s also unhappy with Trump’s tariffs on Airbus jets imported into the US.

Trump initially levied a 10% tax on the planes, last October. Next month, this goes up to 15%.

As of last week, the US collected more than $277m in tariffs related to the Airbus complaint. The Trump Administration has WTO authority to levy 100% taxes, up to $7.5bn. Industries and countries that have nothing to do with aerospace are penalized in addition to Airbus.

It’s unclear from public information how much of the money collected so far is from Airbus imports.

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Mitsubishi ends 2019 with ~500 commitments for SpaceJet

By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 22, 2020, © Leeham News: Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp. (MITAC) ended 2019 with 495 commitments for the M100 SpaceJets from multiple continents, LNA learned.

All but 100 from US regional carrier Mesa Airlines are unidentified.

Mesa announced a commitment for 50 firm orders and 50 options in September at the US Regional Airline Assn. annual meeting in Nashville.

MITAC wouldn’t comment, but LNA understands that commitments come from North America and Europe. It’s unclear if additional commitments are from Asia.

Japan’s ANA and Japan Air Lines are launch customers for the M90 SpaceJet, previously called the MRJ90. This model was rebranded in June at the Paris Air Show when the M100 SpaceJet program was launched.

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2020 Outlook for Airbus, Boeing, et al

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Introduction

By the  Leeham News team.

Jan. 2, 2020, © Leeham News: This will be a pivotal year for Boeing.

It will be a year of challenges for Airbus.

Embraer Commercial Aviation should disappear.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries faces final decisions for the SpaceJet.

Overhanging international trade is the US presidential election.

These are just some of the headlines to look for in 2020.

Leeham News and Analysis provides its annual outlook as the new year, and the new decade, begins.

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Boeing MAX crisis dominated 2019 Top stories

By Scott Hamilton

Dec. 30, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing and the 737 MAX dominated the Top 10 Stories on Leeham News in 2019.

This should surprise no one.

The year-end late-breaking news that Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg had been fired by the Board of Directors should be in the Top 10 Stories of 2019.

But coming as it did on Dec. 23, the start of Christmas week, it failed to make it into LNA’s Top 10 list.

Readership, obviously, falls off dramatically over the Christmas holidays. The fall-off continues between Christmas and New Year’s evidenced by LNA’s own decision to take a holiday (except for breaking news).

The Ethiopian Airlines crash on March 10 grabbed three of the Top 10 stories and shared, with Lion Air 610 (the Oct. 29, 2018, crash) a fourth story.

Boeing photo.

Boeing’s pickle with the 737 NG pickle fork cracking was of the Top 10 stories.

An historical review that Boeing didn’t want to re-engine the 737, preferring instead a new airplane in 2011 when what became the MAX was launched, was in the Top 10.

An April 2018 story about a potential Blended Wing Body airplane from Boeing hit the Top 10 after an enthusiast site linked it to its forum.

Other MAX MCAS stories were in the Top 10. Finally, anticipated announcements by Mitsubishi for the Paris Air Show was the only non-Boeing story to be in the Top 10 reads for the year.

Airbus didn’t hit the Top 10 but did have a #11 story concerning a pitch-up issue on the A321.

The Boeing stories propelled record readership on LNA in 2019.

Here is the rundown.

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Pontifications: There was other news in 2019 besides MAX. Really.

By Scott Hamilton

Dec. 23, 2019, © Leeham News: The Boeing 737 MAX crisis clearly dominated the news this year.

It’s felt like the aviation stories have been all-MAX, all-the-time.

Believe it or not, there was aviation news other than the MAX.

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Mitsubishi’s M90 faces delay amid elaborate certification

By Bjorn Fehrm

October 23, 2019, ©. Leeham News: The Japanese News agency Nikkei writes the Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation might announce a further delay to the delivery of the first M90 SpaceJet (previously the MRJ90). This time it’s the risk the first delivery to ANA, All Nippon Airways might slip out of 2020 and into 2021.

It’s the certification of the new jet which is requiring more time than expected as the Japan Civil Aviation Bureau, JCAB, is going about the certification work with typical Japanese thoroughness.

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Europe’s Regional airlines meet in Antibes, Cotes d’Azur.

By Bjorn Fehrm 

October 9, 2018, ©. Leeham News, Antibes France: The European Airlines Association, ERA, gathered 44 of its 51 member airlines in Antibes France, today for the first day of its 2019 General Assembly meeting.

LNA participated in the event for the first time and we found an impressive gathering of airline and airport representatives, aircraft OEMs and support businesses discussing the challenges facing the European regional air transport market.

Norway’s Wideroe, the launch customer for Embraer’s E-Jet E2 is one of the airlines present.

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Pontifications: Safety changes good for Boeing, the industry

By Scott Hamilton

Sept. 30, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing’s announcement last week that it’s establish a permanent Board level safety committee, realigning some functions and creating new lines of reporting is a good and necessary step.

It’s not only good and necessary for the 737 MAX return to service, it’s good and necessary for Boeing and for the industry.

It’s also just a first step in restoring confidence in the MAX and the Boeing brands.

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