2020 Outlook for Airbus, Boeing, et al

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Introduction

By the  Leeham News team.

Jan. 2, 2020, © Leeham News: This will be a pivotal year for Boeing.

It will be a year of challenges for Airbus.

Embraer Commercial Aviation should disappear.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries faces final decisions for the SpaceJet.

Overhanging international trade is the US presidential election.

These are just some of the headlines to look for in 2020.

Leeham News and Analysis provides its annual outlook as the new year, and the new decade, begins.

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Boeing MAX crisis dominated 2019 Top stories

By Scott Hamilton

Dec. 30, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing and the 737 MAX dominated the Top 10 Stories on Leeham News in 2019.

This should surprise no one.

The year-end late-breaking news that Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg had been fired by the Board of Directors should be in the Top 10 Stories of 2019.

But coming as it did on Dec. 23, the start of Christmas week, it failed to make it into LNA’s Top 10 list.

Readership, obviously, falls off dramatically over the Christmas holidays. The fall-off continues between Christmas and New Year’s evidenced by LNA’s own decision to take a holiday (except for breaking news).

The Ethiopian Airlines crash on March 10 grabbed three of the Top 10 stories and shared, with Lion Air 610 (the Oct. 29, 2018, crash) a fourth story.

Boeing photo.

Boeing’s pickle with the 737 NG pickle fork cracking was of the Top 10 stories.

An historical review that Boeing didn’t want to re-engine the 737, preferring instead a new airplane in 2011 when what became the MAX was launched, was in the Top 10.

An April 2018 story about a potential Blended Wing Body airplane from Boeing hit the Top 10 after an enthusiast site linked it to its forum.

Other MAX MCAS stories were in the Top 10. Finally, anticipated announcements by Mitsubishi for the Paris Air Show was the only non-Boeing story to be in the Top 10 reads for the year.

Airbus didn’t hit the Top 10 but did have a #11 story concerning a pitch-up issue on the A321.

The Boeing stories propelled record readership on LNA in 2019.

Here is the rundown.

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Pontifications: There was other news in 2019 besides MAX. Really.

By Scott Hamilton

Dec. 23, 2019, © Leeham News: The Boeing 737 MAX crisis clearly dominated the news this year.

It’s felt like the aviation stories have been all-MAX, all-the-time.

Believe it or not, there was aviation news other than the MAX.

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Mitsubishi’s M90 faces delay amid elaborate certification

By Bjorn Fehrm

October 23, 2019, ©. Leeham News: The Japanese News agency Nikkei writes the Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation might announce a further delay to the delivery of the first M90 SpaceJet (previously the MRJ90). This time it’s the risk the first delivery to ANA, All Nippon Airways might slip out of 2020 and into 2021.

It’s the certification of the new jet which is requiring more time than expected as the Japan Civil Aviation Bureau, JCAB, is going about the certification work with typical Japanese thoroughness.

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Europe’s Regional airlines meet in Antibes, Cotes d’Azur.

By Bjorn Fehrm 

October 9, 2018, ©. Leeham News, Antibes France: The European Airlines Association, ERA, gathered 44 of its 51 member airlines in Antibes France, today for the first day of its 2019 General Assembly meeting.

LNA participated in the event for the first time and we found an impressive gathering of airline and airport representatives, aircraft OEMs and support businesses discussing the challenges facing the European regional air transport market.

Norway’s Wideroe, the launch customer for Embraer’s E-Jet E2 is one of the airlines present.

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Pontifications: Safety changes good for Boeing, the industry

By Scott Hamilton

Sept. 30, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing’s announcement last week that it’s establish a permanent Board level safety committee, realigning some functions and creating new lines of reporting is a good and necessary step.

It’s not only good and necessary for the 737 MAX return to service, it’s good and necessary for Boeing and for the industry.

It’s also just a first step in restoring confidence in the MAX and the Boeing brands.

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Pontifications: Montreal facility is the next step for SpaceJet program

By Scott Hamilton

Sept. 23, 2019, © Leeham News: Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp (MITAC) last week opened a new office facility in Montreal intended to initially support certification of the M90 regional jet and participate in the development of the M100 and M200 follow-on airplanes.

The M90 entry-into-service is targeted for next year.

Japan’s regulatory agency, JCAB, hasn’t certified a new airliner since the turbo-prop YS-11 of the 1960s. Japan’s aerospace industry developed several military aircraft, but none of these required civilian certification.

Alex Bellamy, the chief development office of the M-Series program, called SpaceJet, said, “The development of this [Montreal] center is the last of the piece of the puzzle” to certify the M90 and advance what was originally known as the MRJ program.

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E195-E2 will lead E-Jet sales, predicts N. American sales exec

Sept. 6, 2019, © Leeham Co., Nashville– Embraer is seeing interest from North American airlines in the E195-E2 despite a requirement that this would have to be operated by US mainline pilots or carriers without restrictions under some labor contract Scope Clauses, a top marketing official said yesterday.


 

Charlie Hills, VP of Sales and Marketing and based at the company’s US headquarters in Ft. Lauderdale, declined to name names of these airlines expressing interest in the E195-E2.

The remarks were made at the annual Regional Airlines Assoc. conference in Nashville.

But it is known that low-cost carriers Spirit Air, Frontier Airlines and even Southwest Airlines have looked at the airplane. None of these has a Scope Clause in labor contracts.

Legacy carrier United Airlines also has reviewed the airplane, but its level of interest is hard to gauge. It’s restricted by Scope by size, weight, seat count and the number of airplanes it can fly through its regional partners, so the E2 would have to fly mainline. Pilot wages would be a make-or-break issue.

The first E195-E2 will be delivered Sept. 12 to Brazil’s Azul Airlines.

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Mitsubishi lands MOU for up to 100 SpaceJets from USA’s Mesa Air

Sept. 5, 2019, © Leeham News: Nashville—Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp (MITAC) won a large commitment for up to 100 of its new M100 SpaceJet from US regional carrier Mesa Airlines.

The Memorandum of Understanding was announced today at the Regional Airline Assn. annual US conference. The MOU is for 50 firm orders and purchase rights for 50 more. Mesa is a new MITAC customer. Deliveries begin in 2024. Entry into service is planned for 2023.

The M100 is compliant with the US pilot contract Scope Clauses, which (among other things) limit the weight of the airplane and seating configuration.

A Letter of Intent for 15 M100s was announced at the Paris Air Show. This customer has yet to be identified.

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Pontifications: Embraer sees E175-E2 orders this year outside US

By Scott Hamilton

Aug. 26, 2019, © Leeham News: My column July 22 entitled Embraer counts on Boeing heft for E2 sales boost raised a few hackles in Sao Jose dos Campos, headquarters of Embraer.

It wasn’t meant to. Rather, slow sales of the E-Jet E2 this year caught the attention of more than a few in the market, so I thought putting some perspective on the issue was worthwhile.

After all, sales of the Bombardier C Series were slow between the announcement of selling 50.01% of the program and consummation of the deal nearly a year later.

Such is the case with E2 sales pending consummation of the Boeing-Embraer joint venture, which has a target date of closing by year end, I wrote.

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