Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 18. April 18, 2025
- Natilus: Composite BWB, entry-into-service by 2029, 570 on order April 17, 2025
- China bans Boeing, US parts imports in tariff war April 15, 2025
- Boeing welcomes COMAC competition as Asia-Pacific demand soars April 15, 2025
- How good is the C929? April 14, 2025
Heart Aerospace’s revised ES-30, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
October 17, 2024, © Leeham News: We analyze Heart Aerospace’s latest evolution of the hybrid ES-30 (bottom aircraft in the picture), which replaces the original battery-based 19-seater (top aircraft) and the original ES-30 (mid aircraft).
The latest version, presented in spring 2024, is a parallel hybrid, putting gas turbine turboprop engines outside the electric motors. What are the advantages of the parallel hybrid version, and will it make the Heart ES-30 project more likely to succeed?
We use our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to understand the design choices and the costs involved.
Summary:
- The latest revision of the Heart Aerospace hybrid electric aircraft, the ES-30, takes the hybrid architecture from a serial to a parallel system. It simplifies the architecture.
- Does the revised ES-30 make airline operational sense? We analyze this using our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model.
Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 10. Airframe integration
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 24, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We do an article series about engine development. The aim is to understand why engine development now has longer timelines than airframe development and carries larger risks of product maturity problems.
To understand why engine development has become a challenging task, we need to understand engine fundamentals and the technologies used for these fundamentals.
In the last Corner, we looked at the nacelles used for a turbofan engine and for an open-rotor engine. Now, we go one step further and look at the integration of modern engines on an airliner.
Figure 1. Boeing 737NG (left) and MAX (right) nacelles compared. Source: Leeham Graphic from Boeing 737 images.
Outlook 2024: Can ATR finally achieve its production target?
By Judson Rollins
Jan. 15, 2024, © Leeham News: For the second year in a row, ATR fell short of its stated production targets.
ATR delivered just 25 new aircraft in 2022 and 35 in 2023. The latter was five short of its stated target. In early 2023, the manufacturer said supply chain and staffing shortages were the two main reasons for its 2022 shortfall. It has not yet discussed what went wrong last year.
At last year’s Paris Air Show, ATR said it wants to deliver 80 aircraft per year by 2026. However, this seems unrealistic given the OEM’s current order book of 176 aircraft, according to recent data viewed by LNA.
ATR STOL test aircraft. Source: v1Images.com.
Summary
- Turboprop demand forecasts seem questionable.
- ATR is delaying its timeline for a new eco turboprop.
- Progress continues on a future STOL variant.
Paris Day Two: Air India finalizes earlier deals; Embraer, ATR announce orders
By Bryan Corliss
June 20, 2023, © Leeham News – While Monday’s news from the Paris Air Show was dominated by the one big Airbus order from Indian carrier IndiGo, Tuesday saw a host of smaller deals announced by OEMs, airlines and leasing companies.
IndiGo rival Air India also announced it had finalized its massive 470-jet order from February, which it had split between Boeing and Airbus.
While there was a significant volume of deals announced Tuesday, in many cases, they were formal announcements of deals that OEMs already were carrying on their order books.
- Air India finalizes Boeing, Airbus orders
- Boeing lands orders from airlines, lessors
- Airbus reveals new orders and buyers in previous deals
- Embraer and ATR announce first deals of show
- Eviation announces LOI for Alices
First flight of Universal Hydrogen Dash 8 opens new era, company says
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By Scott Hamilton
March 6, 2023, © Leeham News: Universal Hydrogen (UH2) last week took off with its demonstrator aircraft for what it believes is the beginning of a new era.
The first flight of a hydrogen-powered De Havilland Dash 8-300, developed by Universal Hydrogen, occurred on March 2, 2023. Credit: Leeham News.
The Dash 8-300 took off from the Moses Lakes (WA) airport at 8:41 am on March 2 for a short flight circling the former US Air Force Base, now called Grant County International Airport. On one circle, the test pilots throttled back the Jet A-fueled Pratt & Whitney PW123 engine, flying on the No. 2 electric motor, powered by hydrogen fuel.
Thus, UH2’s Dash 8 became the second largest plane (after the Soviet-era Tu-155) to fly on hydrogen and the first to fly solely on clean energy given that the No. 1 engine was at idle.
LNA previously reported details of UH2’s airplane plans.
Related Stories
How UH2 moves forward is detailed below.
Summary
- UH2 raised $100m. Another $200m-$250m is required to bring the aircraft to market.
- UH2 has 247 orders and commitments.
- ATR-72 will be the first H2-powered airliner to enter service. The Dash 8-300 will follow.
- A fueling company, not an airplane company.
Outlook 2023: Turboprops: Embraer and De Havilland look to future, leaving market to ATR
Embraer’s TPNG turboprop concept. A decision whether to launch the program has been delayed. Credit: Embraer.
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By Bryan Corliss
Jan. 9, 2023, © Leeham News: Turboprops should be having a moment, given all the concern about how the aviation industry is contributing to climate change. Want to cut your fuel burn by 45%? Just retire your fleet of 70-seat regional jets and replace them with turboprops.
Yet even with concerns over the environmental (and monetary) costs of operating regional jets, there hasn’t been a big move toward turboprops. In December, Embraer announced it was putting the development of a 70-to-90-seat turboprop on hold. The reason: Suppliers can’t provide it with components (meaning engines) that will provide enough of a performance increase to make a new plane worthwhile.
Meanwhile, the orphaned De Havilland Dash-8 – now owned by a rebranded De Havilland Aircraft Canada – has been out of production since mid-2021.
That leaves the Franco-Italian consortium of ATR as the only OEM likely to deliver any turboprops to airlines in 2023, 2024 – maybe even beyond.
That could change by the end of the decade, however. Embraer is working on a hybrid-electric aircraft that could be ready as soon as 2030 in 19- and 30-seat versions. And a rebranded De Havilland Canada is taking steps to restart production of the Dash-8 at a new factory site in Alberta.
Summary
- Embraer focuses Energia on two models
- ATR working to certify STOL version of ATR42
- Can Dash-8 come back with new company, factory, workforce?
Read more
Universal Hydrogen’s ATR72 Project
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Dec. 22, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we wrote about Universal Hydrogen’s (UH2) plans to fly a hydrogen-fueled demonstrator aircraft in early 2023, followed by a certified conversion kit for an ATR72 airliner mid-decade.
The plans for the ATR72 hydrogen conversion are at an advanced state. As the first publication, we can describe the overall design and the technical details. The ATR72 implementation brings improvements in several areas compared with what’s been revealed before.
Figure 1. Hydrogen tank modules are loaded onto an ATR 72 using standard freight handling equipment. Source: Universal Hydrogen.
Summary:
- The target ATR72 conversion improves hydrogen capacity and handling compared to earlier concepts.
- The influence on the ATR seating capacity is reduced due to more efficient packaging on the aircraft.
Universal Hydrogen could be first with Hydrogen Airliner
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Dec. 15, 2022, © Leeham News: Universal Hydrogen (UH2) is perhaps weeks away from its first flight of a demonstrator that equips a De Havilland Canada Dash 8-300 with tanks of hydrogen and a fuel cell electric propulsion unit. The project shall prove the feasibility of hydrogen-fueled airliners.
The first flight’s date hasn’t been firmly set, but officials at UH2 told LNA it should be soon. Taxi tests of the aircraft will begin in the coming weeks. The flight will occur at Moses Lake in Central Washington State.
Universal Hydrogen supplies its hydrogen to the aircraft in prefilled barrel-sized tanks, called capsules, to avoid the lengthy and costly investment in storing and filling infrastructure at airports. The proof of concept is with a Dash 8, followed by a complete hydrogen conversion kit for an ATR-72 turboprop airliner.
Figure 1. Hydrogen tank pallets are loaded onto an ATR 72 by standard cargo loaders. Source: Universal Hydrogen.
Summary:
- The core business of Universal Hydrogen is the prefilled hydrogen tanks that load onto the aircraft in pallets.
- Universal Hydrogen builds the complete hydrogen fuel and propulsion system to prove and bootstrap the concept of hydrogen airliners.
ATR, Embraer, JADC release 20-year turboprop demand forecasts
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By Scott Hamilton
July 25, 2022, © Leeham News: ATR and Embraer released at the Farnborough Air Show their forecasts for the next 20 years for turboprops.
ATR is the only remaining manufacturer of turboprops in the 40-80 seat category outside of China and Russia. Embraer, which got its start in commercial aviation with the 19-seat Bandeirante, exited the turboprop business after the EMB-120 Brasilia. Now, following decades of exclusively supplying regional jets to the world’s commercial aviation market, wants to resume producing turboprops. It’s proposed a two-member family with 70 and 90 seats. EMB claims it has interest from airlines for 250 turboprops, but the program launch remains elusive.
Farnborough Air Show winds up with post-pandemic slow pace
By Scott Hamilton
July 22, 2022, © Leeham News: The Farnborough Air Show produced little in the way of headline news. But Boeing comes away with some momentum. Airbus announced a big order on July 1, well ahead of the show, from China, leaving show orders in high double digits.
Boeing announced orders and commitments for 278 737 MAXes, including 100 firm and 30 options from Delta Air Lines. This order was the first from Delta in 11 years, ending a long-running behind-the-scenes streak of sour relations between the companies.
The order, for the 737-10 MAX, finally fulfills Boeing’s goal of getting the -10 into Delta. Boeing had counted on Delta being a launch customer of the airplane in 2017. As reported in my book, Air Wars, The Global Combat Between Airbus and Boeing, the bake-off between the MAX 10 and the Airbus A321neo came down in favor of the MAX 10. But CFM declined to grant Delta TechOps rights to perform maintenance, repair and overhaul for other airlines and lessors. Pratt & Whitney agreed, tipping the order to Airbus.
Also during the competition, Boeing was engaged in a trade complaint over Bombardier’s sale of the C Series to Delta. Boeing alleged Bombardier engaged in price-dumping, contrary to trade laws. Boeing won the trade complaint and a tariff of 292% was assessed on each C Series imported from Canada. However, the final review found no harm to Boeing, which hadn’t competed for the order, a required element to impose the tariff. Many observers thought Boeing’s timing concurrent with the MAX-neo campaign affected the decision. But as reported in Air Wars, Delta officials said this wasn’t a factor.