Boeing sees traffic recovery from pandemic, growth for future in latest forecast

By Scott Hamilton

July 19, 2024, © Leeham News: Boeing sees airline traffic recovery to near-pre-COVID pandemic levels in its latest 20-year forecast for aircraft demand.

It also sees growth through 2043 along similar lines announced by Airbus last week in its 20-year forecast. The numbers between Airbus and Boeing are inconsequentially different. Boeing includes regional jets in the 70-90 seat sector; Airbus doesn’t forecast the RJ market. Over the next 20 years, Boeing forecasts deliveries of just over 1,500 RJs—a market that has been shrinking for years.

Embraer, the sole manufacturer outside of China and Russia of RJs, hasn’t announced its 2024 forecast (this usually comes during the international air shows—Farnborough is next week). Nor does it break out the RJs in its forecast, which is for single-aisle jets up to 150 seats.

In its 2024 20-year forecast released last month, the Japan Aircraft Development Corp. (JADC) forecasts deliveries of 1,584 new RJs in the 61-100 seat sector—very close to the Boeing number for RJs and the Boeing and Airbus numbers overall. The JADC forecast is the only one to provide details for sub-sectors within the RJ, single-aisle, and twin-aisle markets.

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Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 2. Target markets.

March 3, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We started a series last week that will look at what environmental and air traffic economy improvements we can get with traditional aeronautical technology developments.

Before we look at technology, we must define what air transport market has the highest impact from changes. Useful technology developments are not necessarily the same for Regional, Narrowbody, or Widebody aircraft.

Figure 1. The distribution of Available-Seat-Kilometer by airplane type 2019. Source: JADC.

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ATR, Embraer, JADC release 20-year turboprop demand forecasts

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By Scott Hamilton

July 25, 2022, © Leeham News: ATR and Embraer released at the Farnborough Air Show their forecasts for the next 20 years for turboprops.

ATR is the only remaining manufacturer of turboprops in the 40-80 seat category outside of China and Russia. Embraer, which got its start in commercial aviation with the 19-seat Bandeirante, exited the turboprop business after the EMB-120 Brasilia. Now, following decades of exclusively supplying regional jets to the world’s commercial aviation market, wants to resume producing turboprops. It’s proposed a two-member family with 70 and 90 seats. EMB claims it has interest from airlines for 250 turboprops, but the program launch remains elusive.

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