ISTAT Part 2: BBD, EMB, Sukhoi, ATR

Chet Fuller, SVP Commercial, Bombardier

Luiz Chiessi, Director of Marketing Strategy of Embraer

Mark Neeley, VP-Marketing, ATR

John Buckley, VP Business Development, Sukhoi Superjet International

Fuller

  • CSeries weight validated and will be on spec at EIS.
  • Aluminum Lithium is better on fatigue than normal aluminum, much better on corrosion. Combine with composites, D check goes to 15 years. C check improved by 15%.
  • 787 first airplane with All-digital architecture, CSeries is second.
  • Last all-new narrowbody was A320 family.
  • Only aircraft with a 12:1 by-pass ratio; A320neo is 10:1, not sure what ratio Boeing will wind up with on MAX.
  • CSeries has better trip costs than E190, with seat costs of A3320neo. There is no magic here, there is just physics.
  • BBD has on order: 66 CS100, 72 CS300; 124 options, 10 purchase rights, 45 LOIs.

Chiessi

  • Mid-long-haul flights for 70-90 seats increasing in US and elsewhere.
  • 48% of EJet deployment is right-sizing by airlines. 26% for new market development.
  • Will maintain leadership in 70-120 seat segment, not enter into arena of Airbus and Boeing.

Buckley

  • SuperJet International responsible for world product support of Sukhoi for SSJ100.
  • Delivered seven aircraft, another in two weeks.
  • Expect to deliver 23 this year, 42 next year, 60 in 2014, 75-80 total current capacity but can be increased.
  • SSJ100 is only regional aircraft with 2×3, 5 in wider than MD80.
  • 10% less fuel consumption than direct competitor.

Neeley

  • ATR top turbo prop pick in Airfinance Journal investors poll.
  • We’re still making a 50-seat product. We have a family of airplanes.
  • Says ATR 72 has same fuel burn per passengers as A320.
  • One third of all passengers fly under 300 miles.

Odds and Ends: More on the Ex-Im funding renewal; Boeing studies 757 replacement

Ex-Im: Republicans continue efforts to shut down the Export-Import Bank, a move that would hurt Boeing Commercial Airplanes sales most but which also would hurt other industries as well. Delta Air Lines is the driving force behind the effort to cut off Ex-Im funding. As we’ve previously indicated, rules agreed to last year by Europe and the US changed the pricing model of the Ex-Im guaranteed loans to be market rates, solving a major objection of Delta.

Ending Ex-Im Bank funding would be a dumb idea. It would hurt American business and furthermore, fees generated a net $2bn for the US Treasury in the last five years.

757 Replacement: Boeing is already studying a replacement for the 757 with a loosely targeted EIS date of 2025-2026. This is called the New Airplane Study.

Qatar Airways: U-Turn Al-Baker has U-Turned his way out of the Bombardier CSeries. Although he continues to profess to be interested in the airplane, the first 2 1/2 years of production has now been sold out. Bombardier has moved on to customers it can rely on.

BCI Leasing: Principals of an obscure lessor were found guilty of fraud. This story explains. Here is the press release from the US Attorney’s Office.

WestJet: ATR and Bombardier are waiting for WestJet to make its decision between the ATR-72 and Q400 for the airline’s entry into turbo-prop markets. The Q400 is thought to have the advantage for the longer-range operational requirements. The order could be for up to 40 aircraft. If Bombardier wins, this would follow a recent order for up to 20 Q400s from Eurolot. After a dismal year last year in which BBD sold only seven Q400s (against a net of 119 ATR turbo-props), BBD appears headed for a very good year.

More Odds and Ends: Aircraft list prices, airline break-even

Aircraft List Prices: It took some doing, but we’ve collected the list prices of all the major commercial airplanes. The comparisons are interesting. We’ve tabulated these into seat categories.

List prices, of course, have no relationship to what customers actually pay. Discounts of 25%-30% are common and really good customers–like Southwest Airlines for Boeing–have been known to get discounts of up to 60%.

There are several notables in this list:

  • Compare the pricing of the C919 and the MS-21 to the Airbus and Boeing products;
  • Compare the Q400NG to the ATR-72-600;
  • Compare Airbus to Boeing; and
  • Compare CSeries to 737-600/700 and there isn’t that much difference; the gap is wider compared with Airbus.

Is there any particular point to this? Not really–it’s just one of those facts that intrigue us and a host of aviation geeks.

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