ISTAT Part 2: BBD, EMB, Sukhoi, ATR

Chet Fuller, SVP Commercial, Bombardier

Luiz Chiessi, Director of Marketing Strategy of Embraer

Mark Neeley, VP-Marketing, ATR

John Buckley, VP Business Development, Sukhoi Superjet International

Fuller

  • CSeries weight validated and will be on spec at EIS.
  • Aluminum Lithium is better on fatigue than normal aluminum, much better on corrosion. Combine with composites, D check goes to 15 years. C check improved by 15%.
  • 787 first airplane with All-digital architecture, CSeries is second.
  • Last all-new narrowbody was A320 family.
  • Only aircraft with a 12:1 by-pass ratio; A320neo is 10:1, not sure what ratio Boeing will wind up with on MAX.
  • CSeries has better trip costs than E190, with seat costs of A3320neo. There is no magic here, there is just physics.
  • BBD has on order: 66 CS100, 72 CS300; 124 options, 10 purchase rights, 45 LOIs.

Chiessi

  • Mid-long-haul flights for 70-90 seats increasing in US and elsewhere.
  • 48% of EJet deployment is right-sizing by airlines. 26% for new market development.
  • Will maintain leadership in 70-120 seat segment, not enter into arena of Airbus and Boeing.

Buckley

  • SuperJet International responsible for world product support of Sukhoi for SSJ100.
  • Delivered seven aircraft, another in two weeks.
  • Expect to deliver 23 this year, 42 next year, 60 in 2014, 75-80 total current capacity but can be increased.
  • SSJ100 is only regional aircraft with 2×3, 5 in wider than MD80.
  • 10% less fuel consumption than direct competitor.

Neeley

  • ATR top turbo prop pick in Airfinance Journal investors poll.
  • We’re still making a 50-seat product. We have a family of airplanes.
  • Says ATR 72 has same fuel burn per passengers as A320.
  • One third of all passengers fly under 300 miles.

26 Comments on “ISTAT Part 2: BBD, EMB, Sukhoi, ATR

  1. KCT, it has nearly 250 commitments!

    (I think “commitments” iso orders are ok since the MAX 😉 )

    • Obviously! Those happen to count twice
      as commitments are much deeper than plain boring orders 😉

      • Sad thing is, it works:

        “Boeing has taken more than 1,000 orders for the MAX since winning its first provisional order for the plane from AMR Corp’s (AAMRQ.PK) American Airlines last year. Southwest Airlines (LUV.N) will be the first operator of the plane.

        Meanwhile, Airbus said it raised the list price of its neo this year because of rising fuel prices and the popularity of the plane, which has garnered more than 1,200 orders since Airbus announced the launch.”

        See, Airbus & Boeing comtinue to split the market.
        Reuters says s so. How many commitments Airbus has next to its orders? Why are AA MAX are orders & NEO’s not ? Did SW pay < 40 million for the 737-8s. The home publlic wants to be exited by Boeing. Lets not dissatisfy them.

  2. I think it should read 72 CS300, not just 2.

    When Fuller compares BPR of the CS and the A320neo engines, he probably talks about the LEAP-1A. The GTF for the neo will have also a 12:1 bypass ratio, if not even higher.

  3. So did Buckley talk about the SSJ130 at all? Seems odd if he didn’t, since they’ve announced it.

  4. The most interesting comment was made by Fuller in an interview with Schonland: They are going to use full-scale wooden mock-ups for all major assemblies to aid system integration and manufacturing engineering.
    Finally someone realized that 3D modeling & simulation does not translate into “right first time”.

  5. I really think that if Bombardier gets the C series right it will kill the 190-195 even if Embraer re-engines.

    Why? Your have only to look at the lauch customer for the 190 to answer that question. JetBlue after spending years of working with Embraer to fix the 190 is now working to exit the program. And they are doing so because the aircraft is a maintenance nightmare. The aircraft costs significantly more than their Airbus fleet to maintain and operate and still is significantly less reliable. To this day its not even close to delivering the kind of costs per ASM that it was supposed to and as a result JetBlue won’t even take delivery of all of their orders much less the options.

    Given their track record with this airplane there is no reason to think a re-winged and re-engined example won’t be worse (especially by comparison to Bombardier who’s CRJ line has proven far more reliable in airline service than Embraer’s products) so I stongly suspect that the C-series will end up owning this segment of the buisness.

  6. What if there is an NB bubble plus oil drops to $40/bbl by 2018 as Adam Pilarski of Avitas presented at ISTAT? Sure it is calculated speculation but it is possible.

    • Low oil prices would indicate no further stoking of conflict in the gulf.
      This then would indicate that the US has finally succumbed to its ailings
      and effectively disappeared from international politics.

      This would induce so many other problems that $40/bbl wouldn’t have
      any significant impact.

    • Pilarski has been saying oil is a 35-40/bbl commodity for years, yet the reality is different. He’s a good showman, his presentations are a hoot, but he’s not been right much in the last few years.

  7. Now he is talking about by 2018 which is certainly theoretically feasible if as he says:

    – Reserves are now at 50 years’ worth of consumption vs 30 years at the start of 1980’s.

    – N. American oil production is increasing while new CAFE standards will decrease consumption significantly. Gasoline was largest US export last year.

    – Combination of N. American increased oil production coupled with decreasing oil consumption in N. America (and Europe) offsets China’s oil demand growth. Between 2005 and 2011 China’s oil consumption growth was 54% while total global demand rose 0.5%

      • Certainly the “Great Recession” has had a very significant impact on lowered oil demand but it is not “the cause”… well before the “Great Recession” the oil consumption curve was flattening and the “Great Recession” accelerated the trend. There are several other factors, including CAFE standards (the current agreement will double fuel efficiency by 2025). The largest trucking fleet (Walmart) will have doubled their fuel efficiency by 2015. InterfaceFLOR, the largest global carpet manufacturer, will use zero fossil fuels by 2020. I could go on but I think that the examples – auto, trucking, industrial, provides enough examples to show that US oil consumption is on track to significant, broad based reductions. Of course, the trend in aviation is self evident.

  8. At long last the 787 with GE turbines has been certified WELL DONE MR BOEING & ALL THE WORKERS i hope to fly on the aircraft soon i will go & have a beer now.

    • ha, it worked.
      The beads on my rosary are chafed real thin already 😉

      • My rosary worn away along time ago so i turned to the beer called H@@@@@@KIN as that beer reaches part that outher beers do not.

  9. Joseph :
    Certainly the “Great Recession” has had a very significant impact on lowered oil demand but it is not “the cause”… CAFE, higher efficiency , stuff …

    Not to diss you but I will believe that when it has happened.
    Times ago, Introduction of the CAFE legislation lead to the rise of the small truck and SUV
    completely perverting the legislation objectives.

    yearly consumtion of pertrol and diesel was 200B gallons in 2006
    that was equivalent to 13m barrel / day. in that context 200k (imports ) barrel are ~1.5%
    and 400k ( exports ) 3.0%. If refining capacity hasn’t changed we can probably map this
    to a ~4.5..5% change in consumption. in a similar timeframe the US traffic volume trend shows a reduction of about 2.5..3% just for highway usage. With high unemployment shanks mare will be very popular. Synopsis: my guess is the US isn’t really moving yet 😉

  10. OV-099 :
    Bypass ratio is overrated by Bair and Randy, but not by Fuller and Leahy.

    If Boeing could fit an 80 inch Leap under the 737NG wing, they would have specified it in an eye blink. Does SUH say Boeing did not offer the PW GTF because it doesn’t fit under the wing?

  11. Keesje, RE “Boeing has taken more than 1,000 orders for the MAX since winning
    its first provisional order for the plane from AMR”?
    Who are the 1,000 “orders” from?

    AMR “order” for 100 MAX a/p’s was “provisional” and subject to Boeing guarant-
    eeing the performance data by NOVEMBER LAST YEAR!
    Lion Air and Norwegian, took about 2 hundred each, also subject to the same
    guarantees and presumeably, therefore, all so-called orders, are still subject to
    confirmation of Boeing specification AND the performance guarantees!

    Are GE/Snecma still having trouble getting the fuel burn guarantees right with the
    Boeing-selected reduced fan-diameter?

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