Pontifications: Transformation is key to increasing production rates

By Scott Hamilton

Feb. 19, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The likely prospect that Airbus and Boeing will increase single-aisle production rates next decade is outlined in our paywall article today.

The whys and capabilities to do so are outlined in the paywall post. The how is what I’ve been writing about since the first of the year, when LNC looked ahead to its 2018 forecast.

The “how” is the transformation in production that is underway in aerospace.

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Airbus group 2017: The A320 is the group moneymaker despite problems

By Bjorn Fehrm

February 15, 2018, ©. Leeham Co in Toulouse: Airbus Group presents better results for 2017 than predicted, despite challenges in several programs. Profit was up 34% on flat revenues. The underlying driver for the strong performance is the A320 program, and with record 2017 orders and backlog, no end is in sight.

Airbus CEO, Tom Enders, says the A320 is “sold out’ until 2023 and the company is working on how to produce 70 per month, to keep up with demand.

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No harm to Boeing, no threat to US aerospace, ITC finds

Feb,. 14, 2018: The US International Trade Commission’s 4-0 vote against Boeing in the Bombardier trade complaint last month found no harm was suffered by Boeing and no threat to the US aerospace industry occurred with the sale of 75 CS100s to Delta Air Lines.

Reuters first reported the issuance of the Determination. The public version wasn’t supposed to be issued until March 2. The parties received it Feb. 9.

Here is the 194-page decision: ITC Public Opinion Aircraft.

LNC hasn’t yet digested the document.

Next round in Airbus-Boeing WTO battle nears

Feb. 14, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The Boeing-Bombardier trade fight isn’t over, yet.

The parties received on Feb. 9 the written decision by the US International Trade Commission and the public version, redacted of confidential and proprietary information, will be released March 2. Boeing is deciding whether to appeal its loss to the Court of International Trade or NAFTA.

But this isn’t the only trade issue on the table.

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Boeing risks losing orders in aftermarket business push, says consultant

Feb. 13, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Boeing’s drive to dramatically increase its aftermarket business, competing with suppliers or even controlling the parts needed by airlines for maintenance, repair and overhaul operations have a risk, says an industry consultant.

Kevin Michaels, president of AeroDynamics, said Boeing potentially could lose airplane sales if it takes too hard an approach to controlling aftermarket parts.

Michaels appeared at the 2018 annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) today in a Seattle suburb.

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Pontifications: NMA, Boeing-Embraer headline Singapore Air Show

By Scott Hamilton

Feb. 12, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The Singapore Air Show last week produced little in the way of new orders from the Big Four airframe OEMs. ATR announced a few deals and Embraer announced a letter of intent for the KC-390 multi-role tanker-transport.

The headline news revolved around the what-ifs: Boeing and the New Midrange Aircraft and Boeing and the link-up with Embraer.

Let’s look at the NMA first.

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Next Sukhoi Superjet is a 75 seater

By Bjorn Fehrm

February 7, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: The President of Sukhoi Civil AirCraft (SCAC), Alexander Rubtsov (who is also the Sales and Marketing Manager of the civil aircraft division of Russia’s United Aircraft, UAC), told Flight Global at the Singapore Air Show there has been a decision to develop a 75-seat version of Sukhoi SuperJet (SSJ).

Sukhoi and United Aircraft have studied whether to develop a larger or smaller version of the SSJ. A Russian order for 100 of the smaller model tipped the decision to the 75-seat model.

Figure 1. SSJ100/95 from Cityjet wetleased to Brussels Airlines. Source: SCAC.

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Pontifications: Airbus easily leads narrow-body backlog, Boeing ahead in wide-bodies

By Scott Hamilton

Feb. 5, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Two thousand seventeen is over and the numbers are in.

Airbus continues to have a commanding lead over Boeing for single-aisle, neo v MAX backlog.

Although Airbus got pounded by Boeing in wide-body orders last year, the backlog tilts only slightly in Boeing’s favor.

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Bombardier Belfast operations are about more than C Series wings

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Introduction

 By Scott Hamilton

 Jan. 29, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Belfast, Northern Ireland: These days, when mention of Bombardier’s production facility in Northern Ireland is mentioned, only one thought comes to mind: wings for the C Series.

But the facility is more than one: wings for the C Series. Nacelles for the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan engine for the Irkut MC-21 are also made in the same building. There are others, where fuselages and tail and wing components for the CRJ and multiple lines of business jets are also made.

Bombardier C Series final wing assembly plant, Belfast, Northern Ireland. Source: Bombardier.

The legacy of the facility dates to 1908, when the Short Brothers began building airplanes, including six Wright Brothers Flyers constructed under license.

It’s from the legacy of using composites on business jets and the CRJs that led to the C Series wings, using production methods that are more advanced than Airbus or Boeing.

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Pontifications: 2018 starts off with a bang

By Scott Hamilton

Jan. 29, 2018, © Leeham Co.: This year isn’t even a month old. If the rest of the year continues like January, commercial aviation is in for an exciting year.

The stunning news, of course, was last week’s shocking defeat for The Boeing Co. in its trade complaint over the Bombardier C Series sale to Delta Air Lines.

Nobody I know of thought Boeing would lose. It did, and by a unanimous verdict.

Then there was the order from Emirates Airline for the Airbus A380, saving the airplane from almost certain program termination.

The Boeing 787-10 was certified. The first delivery will be in March.

And Qatar Airways said it will receive the first Airbus A350-1000 next month.

Let’s look at these events.

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