Bombardier statement on victory at US ITC

Bombardier Statement on ITC Vote

Montréal, January 26, 2018 – Today’s decision is a victory for innovation, competition, and the rule of law. It is also a victory for U.S. airlines and the U.S. traveling public. The C Series is the most innovative and efficient new aircraft in a generation. Its development and production represent thousands of jobs in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. We are extremely proud of our employees, investors and suppliers who have worked together to bring this remarkable aircraft to the market. With this matter behind us, we are moving full speed ahead with finalizing our partnership with Airbus. Integration planning is going well and we look forward to delivering the C Series to the U.S. market so that U.S. airlines and the U.S. flying public can enjoy the many benefits of this remarkable aircraft.

Breaking News: Bombardier wins at USITC–no harm to Boeing, in stunning unanimous vote

Jan. 26, 2018: In a shocking reversal and a stunning defeat for Boeing, the US International Trade Commission ruled unanimously Boeing was not harmed by Bombardier’s government subsidies and low-price deal to sell 75+50 CS100s to Delta Air Lines.

This means the prospect of tariffs, of 292%, is dead.

Details to come.

Boeing aims for half of 100-150 seat sector with 737-7

Jan. 24, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Dublin, Ireland: Boeing sees the 100-150 market sector as 10%-15% of the 20-year single-aisle market demand, or about 3,000-4,500 aircraft.

This compares with the 6,000-7,200 forecast by Bombardier.

Other companies fall within the 4,000 range.

Boeing doesn’t specifically segment the sector in its Current Market Outlook the 20-year forecast for regional, mainline, twin-aisle and cargo aircraft. However, Robert Michael, senior manager of product marketing for Boeing, disclosed the figure at the 20th Annual Airfinance Journal Conference Monday.

Michael said he expects the 737-7 MAX to capture about half the demand.

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Transformations for the Big Four OEMs, manufacturing

Jan. 24, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Dublin, Ireland: Even as new airplane programs are winding down at the Big Four OEMs, 2018 will be a year of transformation for the commercial aerospace industry, LNC told an audience at the 2018 Airfinance Journal Conference in Dublin yesterday.

Airbus is wrapping up its A320neo family program. The last model, the A319neo, will enter service this year.

Boeing’s 737 MAX family is progressing. The MAX 9 enters service this year, followed by the MAX 7 next year. The MAX 200 EIS is also in 2019 and the MAX 10 EIS is in 2020.

The Boeing 787-10 was certified by the Federal Aviation Administration this week. It enters service this year, the last of the 787 models.

The 777X is two years away from EIS.

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Airbus, Boeing list price hikes will have little affect

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Jan. 22, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Airbus and Boeing hiked their list prices on their airliners last week by about 2% and 4% respectively.

There is little impact for either company in the near term. Single-aisle lines for both companies are sold out until the early 2020 decade, so any price hikes today will be reflected for sales will deliveries after the current backlog clears.

The wide-body lines could have better near-in returns; the backlogs aren’t as far out as single-aisle and near-term opportunities exist.

  • Initial deposits might see an uptick in cash flow.
  • Will price hikes translate into higher revenue or larger discounts?
  • Production rate hikes would create revenue opportunities.

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Airbus raises list prices about 2%; more profits or bigger discounts?

Jan. 17, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Airbus announced a list price hike Monday of just under 2%.

The popular A321neo goes to $129.5m from $127m. The A350-900 goes to $317.4m from $311.2m, for example.

Such price hikes are common. Boeing hasn’t announced whether it will raise the list prices this year, but in the past, it’s typically done so.

Airbus continues to list the A318 and A350-800 in its price list. There hasn’t been a commercial sale of the A318 in years and Airbus skipped creating a neo version of this double-shrink airplane.

Ostensibly, Airbus continues to offer the aircraft as an Airbus Corporate Jet (ACJ), but sales of this are few and far between.

Airbus also continues to list the A330-800 despite having only one customer with a small order for the airplane.

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Pontifications: Embraer twice became focus of US trade commission complaints

By Scott Hamilton

Jan. 20, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The US aircraft manufacturer claims the foreign company is unfairly subsidized, undercutting pricing in US sales and threatening its future. A trade complaint is filed.

A prominent politician lines up on behalf of its constituent industries, claiming unfair competition. He calls for a trade investigation.

No, it’s not Boeing vs. Airbus.

It’s not even Boeing vs. Bombardier.

The complaints were against Embraer, twice.

Once in 1982 and again in 2010. In both cases, the US International Trade Commission was involved.

The rhetoric is remarkably consistent with the Boeing-Bombardier trade case.

In both Embraer cases, the ITC dismissed the complaints.

Its decision in the Bombardier case will take a preliminary vote next week, absent a schedule change, and a final decision will be issued Feb. 9.

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737-7 MAX future appears to be niche, BBJ and military

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Jan. 11, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The decision last week by Southwest Airlines to defer for four years delivery of 23 of 30 Boeing 737-7 MAXes does not bode well for this sub-type.

Concurrently, Southwest exercised options for 40 of the larger 737-8.

One of only four identified customers for the 7 MAX, with the largest order of 30, LNC considers it highly likely that a good portion of the 23 remaining orders will be

Boeing 737-7.

converted to the 8 MAX.

With only 63 identified 7 MAX orders, the aircraft risks becoming a narrowly purchased niche aircraft.

  • Despite Boeing claiming in a trade complaint the 737-7 has a good future if Bombardier’s C Series is subject to 292% in tariffs, the airplane seems destined to be no more than a niche airplane with airlines.
  • The largest customer for the 7 MAX is up-gauging.
  • The 7 MAX future appears to be with business jets and military transports.

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Canada files WTO complaint vs US over Boeing C Series trade complaint

Jan. 10, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Canada upped the ante in the Boeing-Bombardier C Series trade complaint today by filing one of its own against the US with the World Trade Organization.

This filing comes on the eve of the US International Trade Commission (ITC) staff report, due Friday, on whether Boeing was “harmed” by Bombardier’s near-miss in selling the CS100 to United Airlines and an order in 2016 by Delta Air Lines for 75+50 CS100s, with an option to covert some of the orders to the larger CS300.

The US Commerce Department concluded Canada, the province of Quebec and the United Kingdom illegally subsidized the C Series program. Commerce also concluded BBD “dumped” the C Series in the US with the Delta order and attempted to do so with the United competition.

Commerce levied tariffs of about 292% for any C Series imported from Canada.

The Canadian complaint with the WTO challenges the DOC’s action and the pending decision, due next month, by the ITC. The move was expected, but generally thought would occur after the ITC ruled. ITC is expected to support Commerce’s conclusions.

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Boeing says record 2017 deliveries will continue

By Bjorn Fehrm 

January 09, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: Boeing announced record airliner deliveries for 2017 of 763 jets today, leading the industry for the 6th year running. Net orders of 912 aircraft gave a Book-to-Bill of 1.2. Airbus, which announces next week, is expected to have delivered 700 jets but to top Boeing for orders.

Randy Tinseth, Vice President Marketing for Boeing, expects the positive trend to continue. “The market was strong 2017 and we see no change for 2018. Our customers transported record passenger numbers, at record load factors and with record profits. We don’t see airliner demand weakening” said Tinseth in a call with media.

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