CSeries, the long-ranger for thin routes

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

August 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: At the end of 2014, we predicted the Boeing 737 MAX 8 would be used by LCCs to open new long-range destinations. And sure enough, the fourth MAX 8 off the line went to Norwegian Air Shuttle, for trans-Atlantic operations.

The Bombardier CSeries launch of operations from London City Airport last week gave us the chance to discuss CSeries long-range characteristics with Rob Dewar, VP CSeries program at Bombardier.

With the improved performance data to be announced, the CS300 will pass the range of the MAX 8.To understand with what margin and costs we feed our performance model with the latest information.

Summary:
  • At an equivalent load (standard 2 class or HD cabins) the CS300 flies further than the 737 MAX 8.
  • It will transport about 30 fewer passengers, in higher comfort and at lower trip costs.
  • The seat mile costs will be only slightly higher than the 737 MAX 8.

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CSeries starts operations from London City Airport

By Bjorn Fehrm

August 09, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier (BBD) CSeries has done its first revenue flight to London City Airport. It was a scheduled Swiss International Airlines (SWISS) flight from Zurich that landed on the airport yesterday.

With the CSeries operational from London City, the route network that can be flown from the downtown airport changes significantly. Europe out to Moscow or Las Palmas is accessible and an all business class CS100 could fly direct to New York.

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Pontifications: Boeing-Bombardier complaint revisited

By Scott Hamilton

July 31, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It’s been in a quiet period in the trade complaint between Boeing and Bombardier.

The issue moved over to the US Department of Commerce (DOC) after the US International Trade Commission (ITC) concluded there were grounds to continue the probe. Then Boeing moved for a two-month delay, to September. There it sits. But as July moves into August and with the September decision date around the corner, it’s time to revisit the issue.

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Mid-Year production/delivery update: Bombardier, Embraer

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Introduction

July 31, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It’s time for our mid-year update of the Big Four airframe manufacturers and their production/delivery outlooks.

Our update is through June 30. Although Boeing provides weekly order updates, Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer only do so monthly.

Our update data relies on the Airfinance Journal Fleet Tracker.

Today we look at Bombardier and Embraer.

Summary
  • Bombardier’s CSeries production skyline is said by the company to be sold out through 2019, but there are some “dicey” customers as early as next year.
  • BBD’s big challenge comes in 2020, given the goal of producing 120 airplanes a year.
  • The CRJ and Q400 lines continue to be a major challenge.
  • Embraer’s production line looks nearly full in 2018, but it, too has some customer issues.

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Pontifications: JADC 20-year forecast: VLA, NMA and other data

By Scott Hamilton

July 24, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The Japan Aircraft Development Corp (JADC) just published its 2017-2037 jet and turboprop forecast. JADC forecasts a demand for 33,336 jet airliners and some 2,000 turboprops.

JADC is partly owned by Mitsubishi, which is developing the MRJ70/90 and which is on several Boeing programs.

I like the JADC forecast because it segments the seating categories in more detail than Airbus and Boeing and somewhat differently than Bombardier and Embraer.

I also view JADC as having less of an axe to grind than the Big Four OEMs.

A couple of quick take-aways:

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Pontifications: Mississippi’s aerospace footprint

By Scott Hamilton

July 17, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Living in the Seattle area, the highest profile, dominant industry is the commercial aerospace sector.

Boeing, of course, headlines just about everything when it comes to aviation.

Boeing’s competition is principally Airbus—or at least it used to be until Boeing claimed teeny tiny Bombardier, a company one-sixth the size of Boeing’s revenues, is poised to put Boeing out of business with BBD’s CSeries.

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Jet sales in 75-150 seat lag Airbus, Boeing

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Introduction

The Mitsubishi MRJ90 hasn’t recorded a sale in a year. Photo by Scott Hamilton.

July 13, 2017, © Leeham Co.: While analysts and reporters focus on the high-profile order competition between Airbus and Boeing, it’s time to look at Bombardier and Embraer, along with the 75-150 seat sector.

Boeing is doing better than expected this year, due largely to the launch of the 737 MAX 10. Airbus is struggling year-to-date, but received a big boost post-Paris Air Show with an agreement to sell 140 A320s and A350s to China. At this stage, it’s not a firm order, however.

How are Bombardier and Embraer doing in their core markets of 75-150 seats?

Just awful.

Sukhoi and Mitsubishi aren’t doing any better.

Summary
  • Few new sales in 2017 in the 75-150 seat sector.
  • Low fuel prices, Scope Clause and general order downturn converge.
  • Embraer’s Paris Air Show results boosted this OEM’s year-to-date performance.

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Decision detailed (sort of) in Boeing-Bombardier price dumping case

June 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The US International Trade Commission (ITC) last week released its detailed decision to go forward with the Boeing complaint that Bombardier engaged in price dumping when it sold the CS100 to Delta Air Lines.

But for the outsider, the public document isn’t much help. It’s heavily redacted and left out all the good stuff that would allow an outsider to fully understand the reasoning the ITC voted 5-0 to send the case over to the US Commerce Department for further study and potential imposition of tariffs.

Delta Air Lines Bombardier CS100.

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Pontifications: Boeing-Bombardier dispute’s big winner: Airbus

By Scott Hamilton

June 12, 2017, (c) Leeham Co.: Boeing won round one Friday in its price-dumping complaint against Bombardier over its sale of the CSeries to Delta Air Lines.

The US International Trade Commission (ITC) voted 5-0 to continue the investigation. It now goes to the US Department of Commerce to determine whether tariffs should be imposed on the deal, and how much. Delta Air Lines would have to pay the tariffs.

Boeing won this round but the big winner is likely to be Airbus.

 

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Boeing gets favorable ruling against Bombardier

June 9, 2017: Boeing received a 5-0 favorable decision from the US International Trade Commission in its complaint that Bombardier dumped its CSeries order with Delta Air Lines at an illegally low price.

The full decision won’t be published until next week.

The press release and some additional information is below.

A Reuters story is here.

A Politico story is here.

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