Pontifications: Melancholy about Embraer’s 50th year

By Scott Hamilton

June 10, 2019, © Leeham News: Embraer is 50 years old Aug. 19.

This must be the classic case of mixed feelings. By the end of the year, if regulators approve, the marquis business unit, Commercial Aviation, will be spun off and the Embraer name for it disappears into Boeing Brasil-Commercial (BB-C).

Boeing will own 80% of the new joint venture and Embraer retains 20%. Boeing has the governance and chairman. Embraer’s CEO of Commercial Aviation becomes president and CEO of BB-C, but the direction now will clearly be set by Boeing.

Sixty percent of Embraer’s services unit goes into BB-C.

Embraer and Boeing also created a second JV, for the KC-390 program. Embraer retains 51% and Boeing gets 49%.

Embraer retains full control over the remaining defense and business jet units.

Officials put a “best face” on the pending changes at Embraer’s pre-Paris Air Show briefings May 27-29, but they really could not mask the uncertainties and, to some degree, resignation about the future.

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Pontifications: 50×2

By Scott Hamilton

June 3, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus and Embraer are 50 years old this year.

Airbus broke out the party hats last Wednesday. It arranged a formation flying of all its in-production aircraft, including the Beluga XL. It launched a website microsite with its history. A new book, Airbus, The First 50 Years, has been issued. A celebration is planned for the Paris Air Show.

Embraer’s anniversary is Aug. 19, so at this point, its party plans haven’t been solidified, but there will likely be something at the Paris Air Show. Embraer plans to have its new specially painted E195-E2 at the air show.

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Airbus’ A220 gets increased range next year

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

May 30, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus announced an increase in Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW) for its A220 range last week. With the improvement, the A220s should fly up to 3,400nm when the increased MTOW is available from 2H 2020.

Like the last time when we wrote about the A220 and its range versus other Airbus single-aisles, this is a bit of Apples and Oranges. Just about everything around how the range of the A220 is measured changed. When we put the new data into our performance model, a very different range picture popped out than the one given by Airbus.

Summary:

  • Airbus change the rule set by which it measures the range of the A220 to the less stringent Airbus single-aisle rule-set. Together with a future increase of the MTOW, this will increase the range of the A220.
  • It also changed the seating. This was to curb the range of the A220-100 and to hide an emerging fuel limitation of the A220-300.

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Embraer sees need for 10,550 airplanes in 50-150 sectors

May 29, 2019, © Leeham News: Embraer, in what will be its last 20-year market forecast as an independent company, sees a demand for 10,550 jet and turboprop aircraft from 50 to 150 seats through 2038.

The company, founded 50 years ago, growing to become the world’s third largest supplier of airliners, sees its Commercial Aviation unit disappear by the end of this year, barring a hiccup of some kind.

That’s when The Boeing Co. and Embraer expect approval of a joint venture that will be called Boeing Brasil-Commercial (BB-C). Boeing will own 80% of the JV and control governance. Embraer will own 20%. The CEO of the Commercial Aviation unit, John Slattery, will be president of the joint venture, but Boeing will be in charge.

Until then, Embraer is trying to carry on business as usual. And this means it issued its 20-year forecast Monday during its pre-Paris Air Show international media briefing at its headquarters in Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil.

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Tariff threats, China certification issues slow A220 sales

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May 23, 2019, © Leeham News, Toulouse: Airbus took over majority interest the Bombardier C Series July 1 last year. The company immediately announced 120 orders for the CS300, renamed the A220-300, at the Farnborough Air Show, but the deals had been in the works with Bombardier before the takeover.

Another flurry of orders was announced at the end of last year.

Since then, virtually nothing.

Tuesday at the Airbus Innovation Days, Chief Commercial Officer Christian Scherer said the threat of tariffs in the US and the lack of certification in China effectively shuts out two thirds of the world market to the A220.

Monday, tensions between Canada and the US eased a bit when the Trump Administration removed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. But Airbus remains a Trump target at the World Trade Organization over outstanding claims against Airbus for the A380 and A350.

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Delta Tech Ops 5-year goal to double revenues

#MROAM

Ed Bastian, Delta Air Lines CEO.

April 9, 2019, © Leeham News: Delta Air Lines has the third largest third-party MRO company in North America and aggressively seeks to grow, in sharp contrast to its competitors.

While American and United airlines have limited their own maintenance, repair and overhaul, let alone seek third party business, Delta Tech Ops is a business unit and profit center. Delta CEO Ed Bastian said today that Tech Ops will achieve $1bn in revenues this year and has a goal of $2bn within five years.

Bastian was the lead-off speaker at the Aviation Week MRO Americas conference in Atlanta this week.

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Pontifications: Boeing NewCo exec, Slattery, faces challenges

By Scott Hamilton

  • Our Monday paywall will appear at 6am Tuesday, PDT.

March 25, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing last week announced the executive leadership for the joint venture with Embraer, the as-yet unnamed company that is generically called NewCo.

Separately, Embraer announced the departure at the end of next month of Embraer’s parent CEO, Paulo Cesar, a move that was expected.

Cesar was with Embraer for 22 years in various positions. We was president and CEO of EMB’s Commercial Aviation division and launched the E2 program in 2013.

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Pontifications: Which airplanes are revolutionary or evolutionary?

By Scott Hamilton

Feb. 18, 2019, © Leeham News: Last week’s column about the revolutionary Boeing 747 prompted some Twitter interaction asking what other commercial airplanes might be considered “revolutionary.”

I have my views. Let’s ask readers.

There are also three polls below the jump in addition to the usual comment section. Polling is open for one week.

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With CSeries, Airbus commands 78% of 100-150 seat sector

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Introduction

Feb. 11, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus acquired 50.01% of the Bombardier CSeries program last year.

Boeing and Embraer Commercial Aviation received Brazilian government approval last month and now await a nearly-year long regulatory approval process from around the globe.

Based on the announced orders at Jan. 1, Airbus has a 78% share of the 100-150 seat sector following the combinations.

Embraer sold more airplanes in this sector than Boeing: 95 E195-E2s to 70 737-7s.

The former CSeries has 526 orders to 55 for the A319neo.

Summary
  • 14% of the A220 orders are classified as “Red” in LNA’s judgment—orders that either should be removed from the backlog or, in one case, is highly questionable due to customer statements.
  • Another 11% of the A220 orders are classified as “Yellow,” primarily due to region risk.
  • Synergies between A220 and A320 are greater than E2 and 737.

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Pontifications: The Airbus North America Tour

By Scott Hamilton

Jan. 21, 2019, © Leeham News: Last week’s Airbus North America Tour (#AirbusNATour on Twitter) was a whirlwind 2 ½ days encompassing Montreal Mirabel, Columbus (MS) and Mobile (AL).

To those who don’t follow Airbus Americas closely, the Mississippi stop might be a puzzle. I’ll come back to this to explain why an international group of media, including me, made this trek.

Let’s start with Montreal.

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