CSeries trans-Atlantic capability

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

February 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: We previously described how new generation engines make the Boeing 737 MAX 8 a trans-Atlantic aircraft. The MAX 8 is smaller than the Airbus A321LR, but not the smallest single-aisle with trans-Atlantic capability. This distinction goes to the Bombardier CSeries.

We wrote about the CS100 capability to cross the Atlantic from London City Airport last year. After the article, we received new and improved data from Bombardier. The CS100 can now fly directly to US East Coast on the difficult westward leg with a business cabin of 42 seats. The updated article is here.

When we look at the improved capabilities of the CS300 (announced at Farnborough Air show last summer), this aircraft can also cross the Atlantic with a full cabin of 130 passengers.

Bombardier arranged so we could discuss this deeper with the VP CSeries program, Rob Dewar.

Summary:
  • We use our aircraft performance model to compare the CS300’s suitability for long-haul to the Airbus and Boeing competition.
  • The aircraft have similar range and seat mile costs. The smaller aircraft have lower trip costs.
  • With Rob Dewar, we explored the potential for additional capability for the CS300.

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Assessing the SSJ100 future

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Introduction

Feb. 20, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Sukhoi is Russia’s attempt at reentering the commercial airliner business. The SSJ100 regional jet is, by most accounts, an attractive

SSJ100 in CityJet colors. CityJet is one of two Western operators for the Russian-made airplane. Photo: Superjet International.

and efficient aircraft.

But it’s hampered by erratic production and questionable product support (largely due to the overhang of the Putin politics).

The aircraft was grounded briefly in December when a fatigue issue was found in the tail section during a routine inspection.

Summary
  • Nearly 100 SSJ100s are in service.
  • Two key Western customers.
  • Small customers base.
  • Captive Russian customers.

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Bombardier YE2016 results better than expected

Alain Bellemare, CEO of Bombardier.

Feb. 16, 2017: Bombardier today posted better than expected results (even on lower revenue) for the fourth quarter and full year.

Goldman Sachs was first out with reaction among the analyst reports LNC receives:

Bombardier (Neutral) reported stronger-than-expected 4Q16 operating results. Revenue is below consensus and our expectations, but adjusted EBIT is well ahead of our estimate on better operating margins. Free cash flow is a larger source of cash than we expected. 2017 guidance is unchanged. Post the quarter end, Bombardier announced the Government of Canada will provide the company $283mn over four years in repayable contributions related to the Global 7000 and 8000, and the C Series. This investment will be repaid through royalties upon aircraft delivery.

BBD’s press release is here. The financial presentation from today’s earnings call is here.

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Bjorn’s Corner: Turbofan developments in 2017

By Bjorn Fehrm

January 06, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Before we finish of our series on airliner turbofan technology, let’s spend this Corner on what will happen on the airliner engine front during 2017.

While there is no totally new engine that comes into the market during 2017 there are a number of new variants of existing engine families that will be introduced.

Figure 1. GasTurb principal representation of a three shaft turbofan like our reference Rolls-Royce Trent XWB. Source: GasTurb.

 

If we start with the engines for regional/single aisle aircraft and then climb the thrust scale, we will cover the engines in climbing thrust class.

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2017: the year ahead

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Introduction

Jan. 3, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The New Year is here and it doesn’t look like a good one for commercial aerospace, if measured against previous outstanding years.

There are some troubling signs ahead, piling on to a slowdown in orders from last year that didn’t even reach a 1:1 book:bill.

This year looks to be worse than last. Airbus and Boeing will give their 2017 guidance on the earnings calls this month and next. Bombardier and Embraer earnings calls are a ways off, when each will provide its guidance.

But LNC believes the Big Two in particular will be hard pressed to hit a 1:1 book:bill this year and may even struggle to match 2016 sales.

Boeing’s year-end order tally comes Thursday. Airbus’ comes on Jan. 11.

Summary
  • Wide-body sales remain weak.
  • Narrow-body backlogs and low oil prices continue to inhibit sales.
  • China, Middle East concerns emerging.
  • United Aircraft MC-21 and COMAC C919 begin flight testing.
  • Airbus A330neo, Boeing 787-10, Embraer E195-E2 and Mitsubishi Aircraft MRJ-70 roll-out and begin flight testing.
  • Airbus A321neo and Boeing 737 MAX 8 EIS.

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US, EU ignore Chinese, Russian subsidies

Nov. 15, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Government subsidies to commercial aircraft companies appear to be increasing despite the 12-year disputes before the World Trade Organization between Europe and the US over Airbus and Boeing aid.

Yet the US and Europeans appear to be doing little to try and curb the subsidies to new competitors.

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CSeries out of London City Airport, Part 2. UPDATED 2017.01.24

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

This article, which was published on the 14 November, has been updated with new information from Bombardier. The range of the CS100 from London City airport has increased due to improved performance from the aircraft and a new engine version with more thrust, the PW1535G engine.

November 14, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In the last article about operating the Bombardier (BBD) CS100 from London City Airport (LCY), we could see that the runway is about half the length of an international airport’s runways. This will have a significant impact on the Take Off Weight (TOW) that can be used when commencing a route from London City.

aerial_view_of_london_city_airport_2007

Figure 1. London City airport, housed in the docklands of London’s east end. Source: Wikipedia.

The manufacturers have data in their aircraft brochures that state that one should be able to takeoff with e.g. the CS100 at Maximum Take Off Weight (MTOW) from a runway which is 1,463m/4,800ft long. London City Airport’s runway is 1,508m/4950ft long, so then things should be fine?

No, the figures from the OEMs is the planning figure for actual runway used and London City airports usable take-off Runway is given as 3,934ft. In addition there is 394ft stopping distance available.

To understand how this can be used required a bit of information that we did not have at the time of writing the original article. Some of the information we used was not up to date and we did not use the strongest engine available (PW1535G) when analyzing if an operator could fly direct between New York from London City.

Bombardier came to our help and we have now been able to update the data with which to feed our performance model. This shows among other things that it’s possible to operate a direct connection between London City airport and New York, given that the number of passengers (the payload) is restricted to around 50 passengers or below.

We have revisited the two cases, SWISS European operations from London City and how would a direct operation London-New York work. You find the updated article below.

Summary:

  • London City Airport puts special requirements on the aircraft serving it.
  • It puts stringent requirement for takeoff and approach/landing.
  • We use new information and our performance model to present what routes can be served with a CS100 from the London City Airport.

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Bombardier 3Q2016 earnings: revenue down, performance up

Nov. 10, 2016, (c) Leeham Co.: Bombardier reported 3Q2016 and nine months results reflecting lower revenues as downsizing businesses and cost-cutting took effect.

Revenues for the current quarter were $3.7bn vs $4.1bn. For the nine months, revenues were $12bn vs $13.1bn. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT), and before special items, were $87m vs $75m for the quarter. Losses are special items were $94m and $4.9bn.

For the nine months, EBIT was $323m this year vs $538m last year. Losses after special items were $722m and $4.66bn.

BBD burned through $320m in cash in the quarter vs $816m a year earlier. For the nine months, the cash burn was $1.56bn vs $2.37bn.

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Clouds overhang Bombardier ahead of earnings call

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Introduction

Nov. 9, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier reports its 3Q2016 and nine month earnings Thursday and as the year prepares to enter its last 45 days, disappointment hangs over the company and the stock.

Summary
  • Despite winning firm orders for the CSeries from Air Canada and Delta Air Lines early in the year, no other new orders have been announced.
  • Deliveries of the CSeries will only be about half those projected, due to engine delivery delays from Pratt & Whitney.
  • The $1bn investment from the federal Canadian government hasn’t been achieved, but an announcement may come as early as next week that an agreement has been reached.
  • Boeing revised the design of the 737-7 to sit “right on top of” the CS300.
  • Embraer (Brazil) is taking the government bailout of CSeries to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in inquiries, with the USA lending support.

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Flying the CSeries

By Bjorn Fehrm

November 09, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: After my preparations at Bombardier (BBD) in Montreal, it was time to take an early flight to BBD’s test center in Wichita (KS) the next day. We spent the afternoon in briefings and went flying Wednesday.

ftv8-cs300-and-ftv2-cs100-at-test-center

Figure 1. FTV8 (CS300) and FTV2 (CS100) at BBD test center. Source: Leeham Co.

The trip to Wichita was with American Airlines regional carrier American Eagle on a BBD CRJ200. Within two days, I would experience the first and smallest regional jet, the CRJ200 (albeit in coach) and Bombardier’s latest and largest jet, CS300, which encroaches on the turf of the single aisles as a direct competitor to the Airbus A319 and Boeing 737-700/7.

At the test center, just off the runway to Wichita International, I would be joined by Mike Gerzanics, who was test flying for FlightGlobal. We last met when we test flew the Airbus A350 in Toulouse in Spring 2015. Read more