Boeing’s BHAG: Is $50bn Service Revenue Goal Achievable?

 Special to Leeham News and Comment

By Kevin Michaels, Managing Director, AeroDynamic Advisory

Business gurus Jim Collins and Jerry Porras coined the phrase “Big Hairy Audacious Goal” (BHAG) to describe a business objective which is highly ambitious,

Kevin Michaels

galvanizes the organization, and is often met with skepticism from outside observers. Boeing recently created a BHAG that could transform aerospace MRO. Its goal is to triple its service revenue to $50bn within the next decade, and it is taking decisive action achieve its vision.

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Could an NMA be made good enough? Part 5

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

April 20, 2017, © Leeham Co.: After defining the fuselage and wings, it’s now time for the engines.  We go through the sizing criteria for engines for airliners and find the size of engine that is needed for the NMA.

The NMA will need engines which are larger than the single aisle engines for Airbus’ A320neo and Boeing’s 737 MAX. But they will be smaller than the next size up for modern engines, the GEnx-2B for Boeing’s 747-8.

Figure 1. The NMA takes more and more the shape of a 767 replacement (A United 767-200). Source: United

This means the NMA will need new engines, at least 50% larger than the present engines designed for A320neo and 737 MAX.

Summary:

  • An NMA engine will be sized by V2 safety speed or Maximum Continuous Thrust (MCT) criteria.
  • The normal Top of Climb (ToC) sizing point will be less stressing for a twin engine airliner like NMA.

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Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engines, sum up

By Bjorn Fehrm

April 14, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: We’ve been talking engines on Fridays since October 2016. The Corners covered several areas, from technologies to operations.

And we could go on and dig deeper. But we will move on.

Before we go, we sum up what we have learned in the 24 Corners around airliner Turbofans.

Figure 1. Principal picture of a three-shaft wide-body turbofan. Source: GasTurb.

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Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engine maintenance, Part 6

 

By Bjorn Fehrm

April 7, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Last week’s Corner developed the overhaul shop visits per year for wide-body engines. We will now look at how the market develops around these overhaul opportunities.

How does the shop structure develop over a popular engine’s life-cycle? How much choice has an operator and when?

Figure 1. Principal picture of a three-shaft wide-body turbofan with station numbers. Source: GasTurb.

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No new design needed for turboprops, says Bombardier

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Introduction

April 4, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier doesn’t think a new, clean-sheet turboprop aircraft is needed any time soon, a position that stands in contrast with rival ATR.

Bombardier Q400.

Ross Mitchell, VP Commercial for BBD, believes the Q400 covers the turboprop segment from 70 to 90 seats and its operational flexibility covers everything airlines need today.

However, ATR has 85% of the backlog with BBD capturing the other 15%.

Still, Mitchell gives a strong defense of the Q400.

Summary:

Don’t believe everything ATR claims about operating cost advantages, BBD says.

BBD can move cockpit and wing production from Canada to lower costs—but where is the question.

Re-engining the Q400 isn’t in the cards, at least any time soon.

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Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engine maintenance, Part 5

By Bjorn Fehrm

March 31, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: In the last Corner, we showed flight hour graphs for wide-body engines. Now we will deduce the market for engine overhauls from these graphs.

It will show which engines are still in engine manufacturer care, in their main maintenance cycle and in the sun-set phase.

Figure 1. Principal picture of a three shaft turbofan. Source: GasTurb.

The phase the engine is in and its future flight hour development will decide the attractiveness of the engine for overhaul organizations. Read more

Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engine maintenance, Part 4

 

By Bjorn Fehrm

March 24, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: After covering the maintenance market for single-aisle engines, time has come for the engines used on wide-body aircraft. The engine maintenance for a wide-body engine is a bit different to the single-aisle engine. The difference is caused by the longer flight times for the wide-bodies. This makes the flight time wear a more dominant maintenance driver than it is for the single-aisle engines.

The changes in overhaul work caused by the difference in flight profiles and the lower number of engines in the market (compared to the single aisles) will affect how the overhaul market is structured and who are the dominant players.

Figure 1. Principal picture of a tri-shaft turbofan for the wide-body market. Source: GasTurb.

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Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engine maintenance, Part 3

 

By Bjorn Fehrm

March 17, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: In the last Corner,  we showed graphs of the yearly flight hours for engines on single-aisle aircraft. Now we will deduce the market for engine overhauls from these graphs.

These will show which engines generate a maintenance volume that is interesting for engine overhaul companies and which engines are niche.

Figure 1. Principal picture of a direct drive turbofan. Source: GasTurb.

Based on the market size, we will then go through how an engine is maintained when new, mature and at end-of-life.

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Engine OEMs diverge on technology for next generation

March 7, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Representatives of the four major commercial engine

GE9X, the final engine in a decade-long engine renewal program for GE Aviation and CFM International

manufacturers have divergent views of the next round of engine development, either for the Middle of the Market/New Mid-range Airplane (NMA) or New Small Airplanes (NSA) coming in the next decade.

Officials of CFM, GE, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce appeared at the annual ISTAT conference in San Diego yesterday.

PW’s Rick Deurloo, SVP of Sales, Marketing Commercial Engines, had the added task of dealing with the highly-publicized teething issues surrounding its new Geared Turbo Fan engine on the Airbus A320neo.

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Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engines in operation, Part 3

By Bjorn Fehrm

February 3, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: In the last Corner, we went through how our airliner engine reacts to the different phases of flight, including what happens when we operate in a hot environment.

We also showed how engine manufacturers make a series of engines with different thrust ratings by de-rating the strongest version through the engine control computer.

Figure 1. Principal picture of a direct drive turbofan. Source: GasTurb.

We will now look deeper at how engines are controlled and why so-called flat-rating is important. Read more