Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Why the IAM 751 rejected the Boeing contract and what is needed for approval September 16, 2024
- Boeing CFO: we want to negotiate; taking steps to preserve cash September 13, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 23. New versus old, GTF versus V2500 September 13, 2024
- IAM files Unfair Labor Practice against Boeing in thumping rejection of contract September 13, 2024
- IAM rejects Boeing contract, strikes at midnight September 13, 2024
“Hyper focus on reliability and durability out of the gates”
By Scott Hamilton
THE CFM Open Fan engine could be at least 20% more fuel efficient than today’s CFM LEAP and P&W GTF, CFM partners say. Credit: CFM.
Sept. 11, 2024, © Leeham News: GE Aerospace and Safran advance on the CFM RISE Open Fan engine with an overriding goal: “Our customers really want us to be hyper-focused on reliability and durability out of the gates.”
GE and Safran are developing a potentially game-changing engine and marketing it via the 50-50 joint venture, CFM International. The entry-into-service goal is 2035.
Customer demand for reliability and durability “out of the gates” is understandable. Engines produced by CFM, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce disappointed Airbus and Boeing customers operating the Airbus A320neo family, the Boeing 737 MAX and 787 and now the Airbus A350. Durability and/or technical issues plagued the CFM LEAP, Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan (GTF), Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 and now the RR Trent XWB-97. The giant GE9X engines on the Boeing 777X also suffered technical problems during the long, extended flight testing.
Operators protested as on-wing time fell short of promises. 787s, A220s, A320neos, and to a lesser extent Embraer E195-E2s were grounded as engines components failed, MRO shops backed up (displacing routine overhaul requirements on older engines) and new-production engines were diverted to replace those on grounded aircraft.
The CFM LEAP, GE and Safran promise, will provide a 20% reduction in fuel consumption and emissions. But the radical technology of an Open Fan gives airlines, lessors and even Boeing pause.
GE and Safran say they are progressing through development of the 35,000+ lb thrust engine but there is a lot of work to do to make it ready for service and give customers confidence.
Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 21. The High Turbine.
August 23, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We do an article series about engine development and why it has longer timelines than airframe development. It also carries larger risks of product maturity problems when it enters service than the airframe. We discuss why.
In our journey through an engine, we have reached the turbine part, where we will dig deeper into the high-pressure turbine. This is the most stressed part of the engine and has a major influence on engine performance and durability.
Figure 1. Our example engine, the LEAP-1A cross-section with the high-pressure turbine marked. Source: CFM.
Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 10. Propeller, Rotor or Fan?
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 7, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We do an article series about engine development. The aim is to understand why engine development now has longer timelines than airframe development and carries larger risks of product maturity problems.
To understand why engine development has become a challenging task, we need to understand engine fundamentals and the technologies used for these fundamentals.
Following the last Corner on airframe integration, several comments were made about the definition of propeller, open rotor, and/or fan. So, we’ll explore this further.
Figure 1. Evolution of Wright Brothers propellers from 1903 to 1905. Source: wright-brothers.org
Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 8. Open Rotor technology
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 17, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We do an article series about engine development. The aim is to understand why engine development now has longer timelines than airframe development and carries larger risks of product maturity problems.
To understand why engine development has become a challenging task, we need to understand engine fundamentals and the technologies used for these fundamentals.
In the last Corner, we looked at why Open-Rotor engines are more efficient. Their propulsive efficiency can be considerably higher than that of a turbofan. We will explore this further this week.
Figure 1. A counterrotating Open Rotor design that SAFRAN ground tested in 2019. Source: SAFRAN.
Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 3. Propulsive efficiency
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 12, 2024, ©. Leeham News: We have started an article series about engine development. The aim is to understand why engine development now dominates the new airliner development calendar time and the risks involved.
To understand why engine development has become a challenging task, we need to understand engine fundamentals and the technologies used for these fundamentals. We started last week with thrust generation, now we develop this to propulsive efficiency.
Figure 1. The base engine in our propulsive efficiency discussion, the CFM56-7 for the Boeing 737ng. Source: CFM.
Safran overcomes supply chain woes as revenues soar
By Tom Batchelor
February 15, 2024, © Leeham News: French engine, equipment and interiors specialist Safran said revenues soared by more than a fifth in 2023 despite a “challenging supply chain environment” and inflationary pressures.
Announcing the company’s full-year 2023 results, CEO Olivier Andriès hailed the progress made last year as “outstanding”. Revenues were up 22% in 2023, to €23.2bn, vs. €19bn in 2022.
Safran said this was in part due to its positioning on narrow-body markets, which are now above pre-COVID, 2019 levels and growing. With large order backlogs for single-aisle airplanes, the supply chain has struggled to keep up with demand.
The Paris-listed company’s operating income was up 31%, from €2.4bn in 2022 to €3.1bn in 2023, and free cash flow generation topped €2.9bn, which was above expectations and an increase on the €2.6bn in 2022. Read more
Safran revenues take flight, but supply chain woes persist
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By Gordon Smith
Oct 31, 2023, (c) Leeham News: Robust demand in the civil aftermarket sector has helped propel Safran Group’s Q3 2023 revenues upwards. The French firm shared its latest sales results on October 27 and confirmed that it was on track to achieve its year-end targets – but the positive performance hasn’t been universal.
A choppy combination of headwinds and tailwinds is currently buffeting the business, whose vast range of interests includes engine development, aftermarket, aircraft interiors, and other MRO-related sectors.
Overall, revenues were up 20.1% year-on-year at €5.82bn, tracking estimates of €5.79bn. As a result, the company reiterated its FY23 adjusted revenue guidance of €23bn, which was raised at the end of July.
Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 9. Engine core advances
By Bjorn Fehrm.
April 21, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a summary of the article New aircraft technologies. Part 9P. Engine core advances. The article discusses how developments for the next-generation airliner engine cores will increase the thermal efficiency of next-generation engines.
Figure 1. The Pratt & Whitney PW1100G engine with its compact core enabled by a geared high RPM design. Source; Pratt & Whitney.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 9P. Engine core advances
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By Bjorn Fehrm
April 21, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 9. Engine core advances. It discusses in detail the next-generation propulsion system cores and what efficiency improvements to expect from different technological advancements.
An uneven financial recovery among OEMs and Suppliers
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
March 27, 2023, © Leeham News: In an article last year, LNA highlighted the divergence in the post-Covid-19 recovery among OEMs and select Tier 1 suppliers. Airbus had higher profits than before the Covid-19 pandemic, while all others lagged. Revenues were well below 2019 levels.
Commercial Aviation OEMs were severely impacted last year by supply chain disruptions. Airbus and Boeing ramped up production significantly slower than envisioned on all programs. The war in Ukraine and tighter financial conditions are complicating the situation further.
LNA collected financial information on the big three aircraft manufacturers and 10 major commercial aircraft suppliers to assess how quickly they recovered. There will also be an analysis of the numerous charges Airbus and Boeing have taken since 1999 through 2022.
Summary
- Significant differences among the three major aircraft OEMs;
- One engine OEM lagging;
- Some OEM suppliers are struggling financially;
- Twelve-digit accumulated charges at Airbus and Boeing combined.