Leeham News and Comment
Intelligence for the Aviation Industry: Value*Performance*Reliability
Leeham News and Comment
- AirAsia India looks to break-even, international flights April 24, 2018
- Engine makers may face stiffer future ETOPS certification requirements April 23, 2018
- Pontifications: Uncontained engine failures are rare but not unknown April 23, 2018
- Boeing faces 787 deliveries slow down with Rolls-Royce problems; earnings call April 25 April 21, 2018
- Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft stability, Part 2 April 20, 2018
Is Long-Haul LCC viable? Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 24, 2018, © Leeham News: In the third article about Long-Haul LCC and if it’s a viable business, we described the operational costs for typical aircraft used by a Long-Haul LCC.
We now look at the revenue side of the equation, including how much revenue we need to cover our costs and what variations we have over the year.
Boeing faces 787 deliveries slow down with Rolls-Royce problems; earnings call April 25
April 21, 2018 © Leeham News: On the eve of the Boeing first quarter earnings call Wednesday, the company faces a slow-down in 787 deliveries at a time when it is gearing to ramp up production to 14/mo next year.
The engine issues with Rolls-Royce, resulting in grounded 787s across the globe, has had the knock-on effect of new production 787s emerging from the Everett and Charleston assembly plants without powerplants. Huge, yellow weight blocks are hung where the engines should be to keep the airplanes from sitting on their tails.
Delayed deliveries
At least five 787s in airline colors are on the Everett flight line awaiting engines, airplane spotters tell LNC. At least one in colors and two more without airline liveries are on the flight line at Charleston, a local reporter tells LNC. (Update: a sixth 787, this one for Gulf Air, rolled out of the Everett factory Friday night without engines.)
Engines from new production airplanes are being diverted to Aircraft on Ground (AOG), sources tell LNC.
As of April 18, there are 45 RR-powered 787s scheduled for delivery this year, according to the Ascend data base. The number rises to 57 next year.
Production isn’t expected to slow, but deliveries are already being affected, LNC is told—with physical evidence clear from the Gliders now parked at Everett and Charleston.
Indigo, India’s market-leading airline
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 18, 2018, ©. Leeham News: Indigo started its operation 2006, offering low-cost air travel to the masses in India. The year after, Air India and Indian Airlines, the state-owned flag International and Domestic carrier, merged to form India’s largest airline at the time, Air India.
By the end of 2010, Indigo passed Air India and by 2013 Jet Airways for domestic passenger market share, a position it has kept since.
Airbus investment resets the clock on CSeries
Special to Leeham News
By Olivier Bonnassies
Airfinance Journal
April 17, 2018, (c) Airfinance Journal, Montreal: Aviation Week & Space Technology managing director technology Graham Warwick believe the acquisition of a 50.1% stake into Bombardier’s CSeries will give the program opportunities in many areas.
Talking at the Innovation Aerospace Forum in Montreal, Warwick says Airbus expertise in marketing, sales and support will be “immediate benefits” to the CSeries program.
Warwick recalls that Airbus is into its second iteration of the Airbus A320 program, whilst Bombardier’s CSeries is a new product.
“The CSeries is right at the beginning of its life. It clearly resets the clock for the CSeries and can even have a meaningful impact in the future,” he says.
Bombardier’s CSeries vice president program Rob Dewar says 29 CS100/300s are now in service with three customers: Air Baltic, Swiss and Korean Air.
The Canadian manufacturer continues to be pleased with the introduction into service.
Air Canada sees secondary airport need for NMA
Special to Leeham News
By Olivier Bonnassies
Airfinance Journal
April 16, 2018, (c) Airfinance Journal, Montreal: Air Canada sees the potential of a new midsize aircraft (NMA) in its fleet to avoid congested airport.
“There is a difficulty in getting slots at key airports in key times,” Calin Ravinescu, Air Canada president and chief executive officer, said at the Innovation Aerospace Forum in Montreal.
Airlines need OEM choices: Air Canada
Special to Leeham News
By Olivier Bonnassies
Airfinance Journal
April 16, 2018, (c) Airfinance Journal, Montreal: The commercial aircraft manufacturing industry could head into a scenario with two major alliances: Airbus/Bombardier rivaling Boeing/Embraer, but for Air Canada, airlines need to have choices.
Calin Rovinescu, president of Air Canada. Photo via Google images.
“This is a terrific double-edge sword. Airlines definitively need to have choice,” said Calin Ravinescu, Air Canada president and chief executive officer at the Innovation Aerospace Forum in Montreal.
Ravinescu says the idea of a single source supply is not acceptable for maintenance prospective and from a customer service prospective.
“I am totally against any notion of single sourcing, or any component in any aircraft in any circumstances. Just like our customers, airlines expect competition is the aerospace and the aircraft space.
Déjà vu all over again
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Introduction
April 16, 2018, © Leeham News: There’s high turnover in the executive ranks. Major delivery delays cause disruption and unhappy customers. Airlines are cancelling and switching orders. Product strategy is challenged. Your competitor is taking advantage and making significant inroads.
If this sounds familiar, it is.
It’s déjà vu all over again.
Pontifications: Shooting yourself in your feet
By Scott Hamilton
April 16, 2018, © Leeham News: Airbus’ new top sales chief, Eric Schulz, was candid about losing American and Hawaiian airlines wide-body orders, according to a report from Flightglobal from the Airbus annual meeting.
In reference to Hawaiian’s switch of an A330-800 order to the 787-9, he admits: “Maybe we did not see the danger coming…we may have made the conclusion a bit too early that the best solution was to stick with us – which I think it was,” Flightglobal wrote.
American’s loss, Schulz told Flightglobal, was for a different reason: American was “already very heavily engaged” with the 787, adding: “I knew exactly where our competitors had to go in terms of pricing. I’m certain American did a good deal.”
I thought American and Hawaiian were predictable outcomes. But Airbus’ problem went beyond not seeing the “danger.”
FAA AD may severely limit ETOPS of some RR-powered 787s: sources
British Airways Boeing 787 without engines on the Boeing Paine Field line. Photo taken April 12 by Jennifer Schuld.
April 14, 2018, © Leeham News: An airworthiness directive from the US Federal Aviation Administration is expected as early as Tuesday that could severely restrict flight operations some of Rolls-Royce-powered Boeing 787s.
The AD is expected to require inspections and a reduction in the ETOPS long-range operation to 140 minutes from the nearest airport from 330 minutes, sources say. Inspections have to be made by May 20, according to preliminary information. If inspections fail, ETOPS may be reduced to 60, two airlines tell LNC. A third source didn’t have the numbers but said the AD is expected to be “onerous.”
Until the AD is issued and published, the numbers and conditions could change, one source tells LNC on background.
EASA, the European safety agency, issued its AD yesterday, with an April 20 effective date.
About 25% of the 787s are powered by Rolls-Royce engines, but not all engines are affected.
Leveraged Go Air plans major expansion
April 13, 2018, © Leeham News: Go Air of India is the fourth-ranked low-cost carrier by market share, with big ambitions.
The airline had only 32 airplanes at the end of last year but had more than 140 on order as of last month, presaging expansion domestically and internationally.
Image via Google.
This compares with rival Indigo Airlines, the leading LCC, with a current fleet of 153 aircraft and orders for 380; Jet Airways (115 and 75) and SpiceJet (57 and 155). Subsequent to the end of last year, Jet place an order for 75 more 737 MAXes.