By Bjorn Fehrm
October 18, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Bombardier and Airbus changed the airliner landscape yesterday. Analysts say it’s the largest industry change since Boeing bought McDonnell Douglas in 1997.
So, what has Airbus bought for no money? A me-too, or a world-beater?
The analysis focused on the US is natural, given the Boeing trade complaint involving the CSeries sale to Delta Air Lines.
But it’s important to step back to see what this means for CSeries.
Oct. 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The stunning Airbus-Bombardier partnership for the CSeries program guarantees the future of the new airplane, kills off the A319 and thrusts a big stick up Boeing’s tailpipe.
Boeing won big victories in its trade complaint filed with the US government, winning 300% tariffs on every CSeries imported into the US, throwing into doubt a big deal with Delta Air Lines for up to 125 aircraft.
Oct. 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: President Donald Trump announced Friday he will decertify the Iran nuclear deal, throwing into doubt a host of related commercial deals, including huge aircraft orders.
Trump hasn’t gone so far as to withdraw from the pact, but he still threatens to do so unless Congress makes changes he wants.
Here in the US, focus is, of course, on the commitment by Iran for Boeing aircraft—none of which are firm contracts, but “commitments” to order.
Of less focus here, if any, is on the outstanding orders placed by Iran for Airbus and ATR aircraft, which are subject to US licensing.
Oct. 12, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing’s brash and controversial move to file the trade complaint with the US Department of Commerce is a bold gamble designed to kill the Bombardier CSeries entirely, not just block it from the US market, people familiar with the strategy tell LNC.
The threat Boeing fears from the CSeries is not really about the 737-700 or 7 MAX, they say, but truly about the future of the 737-800 and 8 MAX.
While Boeing as clear in its filings with the US International Trade Commission (ITC) and Department of Commerce (DOC) about the alleged threats, some insight to Boeing’s thinking explained by people familiar with the situation was provided.
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 11, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Alitalia, Air Berlin and now Monarch have all filed for insolvency since the start of 2017. These are all airlines with an emphasis on low cost flying, with an important leisure part. Alitalia and Air Berlin had histories as network carriers, which hasn’t helped.
Oct. 2, 2017, © Leeham Co., Grapevine (TX): American Airlines officials dodged commenting about the specifics of the Boeing-Bombardier trade dispute when asked about it at the investors/media day last week in this Dallas suburb.
Instead, the general counsel, Steve Johnson, offered up only a general statement supporting the Trump Administration’s hard line on trade.
The reason for this generality is obvious: American, along with Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, is engaged in its own trade war and needs support from the Administration.
AA, DL and UA are battling Big Three airlines from the Middle East over being subsidized and abusing Open Skies treaties. The US carriers want Trump to knock down the ME3, Emirates Airlines, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways.
Oddly, no question was asked of the American officials about the current state of the battle during the day.
LNC asked American CEO Doug Parker about the issue following the event, however.
Oct. 1, 2017, (c) Leeham Co.: Monarch Airlines ceased operations today (Oct. 2 in the UK) when its operating license was withdrawn and an Administrator appointed, the BBC reported.
The airline has 32 Boeing 737-8 MAXes on order. It operated a fleet of 34 Airbus A320s/A321s. Principal lessors are AerCap and Aviation Capital Group, according to the Airfinance Journal Fleet Tracker.
Given the current trade war between Boeing and Bombardier, there may be a sigh of relief in Montreal. Boeing beat out Bombardier in winning the MAX 8 order against the CS300 in 2014.
Sept. 30, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Today is the 49th anniversary of the roll-out of the Boeing 747-100.
On Nov. 7, United Airlines operates its last 747 flight. Delta Air Lines ends it 747 service this year. Afterward, there won’t be a single US operator of the passenger model.
The 747 remains in service with US cargo carriers Atlas Air, Kalitta Air, UPS and a few others. Globally, British Airways, Lufthansa and Korean Air Lines are among those flying the passenger model.
Ted Reed, one of the writers of TheStreet.com, asked me earlier this month to give some thoughts about the 747. Below is what I gave him; he excerpted some for his column in Forbes. The focus was on US operators.
Sept. 28, 2017, © Leeham Co., Grapevine (TX): American Airlines would like to decide within six months what it will do with its order for 22 Airbus A350-900s, a left-over deal from US Airways before the latter acquired the former.
Derek Kerr, EVP and CFO, told LNC on the sidelines of American’s investors/media day here in a Dallas suburb that the A350s were intended to replace US Airways’ A330s. The airline ordered 22 of the airplanes.
American, however, selected the Boeing 787-8/9 for its mid-size, long haul fleet, ordering
74 42. The new American deferred delivery of the A350s to 2020 and Kerr said a deadline is approaching to decide what to do with the order.