Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Analysis: Boeing’s options for Spirit AeroSystem October 2, 2023
- Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 32. Design for production September 29, 2023
- Further developments of Airbus’ A321 September 28, 2023
- Pontifications: “We’re sick and tired of new technologies:” Avolon CEO September 26, 2023
- eVTOL operator profitability: an elusive dream? September 25, 2023
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 29. Detailed design
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 8, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We described the Preliminary design phase of an airliner development program over the last weeks. Now our project is transitioning into Detailed design.
It’s the most challenging part of the project as we now go from perhaps a thousand people involved at the OEM into tens of thousands and even more people at consultancies and suppliers.
Figure 1. A new airliner family development plan. Source: Leeham Co.
The range of the Airbus A321XLR, Part 2
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 7, 2023, © Leeham News: The advertised range of 4,700nm for the Airbus A321XLR enables true trans-Atlantic single-aisle routes that can originate further inland, both in the US and Europe. When EASA and FAA demanded that Airbus add extra fire protection around the tank that gives the extended range, rumors told of a substantial range loss.
Last week we could see that whatever the weight increase, the range loss is not substantial. Now we look at what Airbus could do to restore the range of the A321XLR.
Figure 1. The Airbus A321XLR. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- We could see last week that the range shortfall from the rumored weight increases is less than rumored.
- When we look at the fixes for any range shortfall, they seem straightforward and doable.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 28. Alternative Preliminary design
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 1, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We described the Preliminary design phase of an airliner development program last week. One could say this was the classical way that aircraft projects conduct Preliminary design.
There is a different way that Conceptual and Preliminary design can be run. It’s more along the lines of pre-development of functions, as a reader commented on two articles back.
Figure 1. An alternative new airliner family development plan. Source: Leeham Co.
The range of Airbus’ A321XLR
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 31, 2023, © Leeham News: The advertised range of 4,700nm for Airbus’ A321XLR enables true trans-Atlantic single-aisle routes that can originate inland both in the US and in Europe. It was, therefore, worrying when EASA and FAA demanded that Airbus add extra fire protection in the area where the new center tank is placed, the tank that enables the longer range.
Extra fire protection increases the empty weight, which has an impact on range. How much is lost, and what can Airbus do about it? We model the range shortfall and possible fixes with our Aircraft Performance and Cost model.
Figure 1. The Airbus A321XLR. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The A321XLR is the first trans-Atlantic single-aisle airliner that can fly further than coast to coast between the US and Europe.
- The range shortfall from the rumored weight increases is less than written about but still troublesome.
The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole, Part 6.
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 17, 2023, © Leeham News: We look at the promises that the VTOL industry has made in their Investor prospects and what the reality is as they come closer to Certification and production.
We used our Aircraft Performance and Cost model to understand the data for the typical missions for the Joby S4 and Archer Midnight VTOLs and how the economics pans out for these missions. We now look at the results and compare them to what’s been projected from the OEMs.
Figure 1. The Joby S4 VTOL. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- We found the VTOL OEM’s economics for the typical 10-minute shuttle flights optimistic.
- When we go back and look at investor deck projections, the cost comparison to helicopter costs were totally off the mark. When we correct this the VTOL is more expensive to operate then an equivalent helicopter.
The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole, Part 4.
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 3, 2023, © Leeham News: We look at the promises that the VTOL industry has made in their Investor prospects and the reality as they come closer to Certification and Production.
After looking at claims of range and utility, we now look at the operating economics. To do that, we need to predict the net sales price of these machines. We use our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to predict the production cost over time and, thus, the needed net sale price of the VTOLs.
Figure 1. The Archer Aviation Midnight VTOL mockup at the Paris Air show. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- The VTOLs are big; the Archer Midnight is the size of a nine-seater commuter aircraft (Figure 1). Aircraft costs are related to size and weight.
- VTOLs use aeronautical production methods and supply chains for parts and systems. The production costs are, therefore, predictable.
The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole, Part 3.
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 27, 2023, © Leeham News: We look at the promises that the VTOL industry has made in their Investor prospects and what the reality is as they come closer to Certification and present their production-level prototypes. We also analyze whether these capabilities will be the final level.
Today we go through the trickiest part of any electric aircraft or eVTOL, the batteries. They are large, very heavy, and the most difficult part to certify on the aircraft, as the battery is dangerous if not designed, produced, and managed correctly.
Figure 1. The Joby Aviation S4 production prototype. Source: Joby Aviation.
Summary:
- The battery system of an eVTOL sets restrictions on the operational usefulness of the category.
- The everyday operational utility of VTOLs is far from the industries’ claims.
The production cost trap for eVTOL upstarts
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 13, 2023, © Leeham News: Last week, we gave the example of a new propulsion principle 30-seat airliner as a project that would face the liquidity strain of initial production costs. We continue today with a look at the leading eVTOL projects, where development costs are passing $1bn and growing.
What will be the cash burn before these projects generate positive cash flow from serial production sales and services? We use our production cost model to analyze the situation.
Figure 1. Our generic eVTOL uses an early rendering of the Vertical VX4 as an illustration. Source: Vertical Aerospace.
Summary:
- VTOL projects promise early payback of invested capital.
- Our production cost model says otherwise.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 58. Summary Part 2.
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 17, 2023, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we summarized that SAF is the short-term solution for GreenHouse Gas (GHG) reduction for Air Transport, and hydrogen is the longer-term solution for up to medium-haul flights.
What about battery and hybrid aircraft? It’s the go-to solution for ground transport (except for long-haul trucks, which are going hydrogen, Figure 1)?
Figure 1. Mercedes hydrogen truck from the world’s largest truck maker. Source: Daimler trucks.
2023 outlook for Sustainable Aviation
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
Jan. 16, 2023, © Leeham News: In the years from 2015, Sustainable Aviation awareness has grown from “something interesting, but will it be needed?” to “how do we fix the environmental issues we have fast enough.” Scientists saw what happened 20 years ago, but the general public didn’t react until it affected everyday life.
The development of more Sustainable Aviation solutions has taken a similar route. Until 2015 the changes to morph aviation into a more sustainable path were a scientific discussion. At Le Bourget Air Show 2015, Airbus presented the E-Fan (Figure 1) that would cross the English Channel the following month. It started an intense debate about sustainable propulsion concepts for aircraft.
Eight years later, where are we today, and what will happen in 2023?
Figure 1. Airbus E-Fan at the 2015 Le Bourget Air Show. Source: Wikipedia.
Summary:
- The year will witness the “separation of the wheat from the chaff.” Viable concepts will prove themselves, and thin concepts, technically or funding-wise, will fail.
- We have a number of first flights from interesting projects. Several are in the “wheat” category.