Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Risk Adjusted Business: Aircraft and leasing values October 3, 2023
- Analysis: With Gentile out at Spirit, here’s what Shanahan’s hiring likely means October 2, 2023
- Mammoth quietly drops trade secrets theft lawsuit October 2, 2023
- Analysis: Boeing’s options for Spirit AeroSystem October 2, 2023
- Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 32. Design for production September 29, 2023
eVTOL operator profitability: an elusive dream?
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By Judson Rollins
Sept. 25, 2023, © Leeham News: As the hype grows around electric-powered short-haul air mobility, questions linger around the industry’s ability to be profitable without government subsidy.
LNA’s Bjorn Fehrm has written extensively on the cost hurdles facing eVTOL operators. His analysis predicted operating costs of approximately $2.14 per seat-mile, significantly higher than startup Lilium’s 2021 estimate of $1.75. But even the latter is a high bar to clear, as this article will show.
Source: Lilium.
Other startups have been pitching business plans with even lower unit costs. But, as aviation consultant Kevin Michaels pointed out last year, such plans often rely on impossibly high assumptions of load factors and/or utilization.
For instance, Lilium’s cost projections are predicated on 10 hours of average daily utilization. By comparison, US DOT data from 2019 show turboprop utilization averages 7.3 hours, small regional jets average 6.2 hours, and large regional jets average 9.4 hours.
Summary
- Helicopter services demonstrate the difficulty of making urban air mobility profitable.
- Comparing eVTOL costs to potential revenue highlights a lack of markets.
- Market forces will allocate scarce pilots to where they generate the most revenue.
The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole, Part 7.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 24, 2023, © Leeham News: We have looked at the promises the VTOL industry made in their Investor prospects and what the reality is as the VTOLs come closer to Certification and production.
We started by using Joby and Archer as examples; now, we wrap the series by looking at some other top VTOL OEMs and how their claims have changed as the projects come closer to reality.
Figure 1. The Lilium jet VTOL. Source: Lilium.
Summary:
- Joby Aviation and Archer are not alone in backpedaling on promised performance as certification nears; other OEMs that are investor-financed have the same problem.
- In summary, the VTOLs in the first generation can only fly short-range missions. Longer flights run into energy reserve and cost problems.
The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole, Part 6.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 17, 2023, © Leeham News: We look at the promises that the VTOL industry has made in their Investor prospects and what the reality is as they come closer to Certification and production.
We used our Aircraft Performance and Cost model to understand the data for the typical missions for the Joby S4 and Archer Midnight VTOLs and how the economics pans out for these missions. We now look at the results and compare them to what’s been projected from the OEMs.
Figure 1. The Joby S4 VTOL. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- We found the VTOL OEM’s economics for the typical 10-minute shuttle flights optimistic.
- When we go back and look at investor deck projections, the cost comparison to helicopter costs were totally off the mark. When we correct this the VTOL is more expensive to operate then an equivalent helicopter.
The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole, Part 5.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 10, 2023, © Leeham News: We look at the promises that the VTOL industry has made in their Investor prospects and what the reality is as they come closer to Certification and production.
After looking at claims of range and utility, we now look at the operating economics. We go through the different cost factors for a VTOL, add them up, and compare them with the industries’ projections.
Figure 1. The Archer Aviation Midnight VTOL mockup at the Paris Air show. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
· The VTOL OEMs state their economics for 10-minute shuttle flights while claiming the VTOL can also fly flights four times longer.
· Yes, the VTOLs can indeed fly these longer flights, but then the economics fall apart.
The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole, Part 3.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
July 27, 2023, © Leeham News: We look at the promises that the VTOL industry has made in their Investor prospects and what the reality is as they come closer to Certification and present their production-level prototypes. We also analyze whether these capabilities will be the final level.
Today we go through the trickiest part of any electric aircraft or eVTOL, the batteries. They are large, very heavy, and the most difficult part to certify on the aircraft, as the battery is dangerous if not designed, produced, and managed correctly.
Figure 1. The Joby Aviation S4 production prototype. Source: Joby Aviation.
Summary:
- The battery system of an eVTOL sets restrictions on the operational usefulness of the category.
- The everyday operational utility of VTOLs is far from the industries’ claims.
The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole, Part 2.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
July 20, 2023, © Leeham News: We look at the promises that VTOL OEMs made in their Investor prospects and the scale-down in capabilities as Certification comes closer. We also analyze whether the reduced capabilities will be the final cuts.
In the end, it’s about how operationally useful real-world eVTOL will be and what mission they do better or cheaper than helicopters. It will decide whether the category will have a breakthrough or not.
Figure 1. The Joby Aviation S4 production prototype. Source: Joby Aviation.
Summary:
- The Investor’s presentations from eVTOL OEMs are full of “up to” for speeds and feeds.
- When we use our aircraft and eVTOL performance model, the reality is well short of the claims.
The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole
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By Bjorn Fehrm
July 13, 2023, © Leeham News: We have done a deep dive series on the cost problems experienced by small airliners and how these make life difficult for alternative propulsion projects.
The eVTOL industry also faces problems, but here it’s more its own overinflated promises that rub. It’s the subject of our next deep dive.
We look at what the top OEMs promised in the past and what the reality is as they come closer to Certification.
When it comes down to it, what missions can be flown and what cannot? Are the missions that can be flown enabling a new industry?
Figure 1. The Joby production prototype as presented on 28th June. Source: Joby Aviation.
Summary:
- Investor prospects promised Total Available Markets (TAMs) as large as $500billion with flights at up to 200 miles per hour to destinations hundreds of miles away
- The reality is more profane. None of these promises hold water.