Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 4. Propulsive efficiency April 19, 2024
- Boeing unlikely to meet FAA’s 90-day deadline for new safety program April 18, 2024
- Focus on quality not slowing innovation, says GKN April 18, 2024
- Boeing defends 787, 777 against whistleblower charges April 17, 2024
- Dissecting Boeing CEO’s statement next new airplane will cost $50bn April 15, 2024
Carrots and sticks needed to achieve sustainability goals, says Airbus
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By Tom Batchelor
February 22, 2024, © Leeham News: The sustainability challenge is redefining the aerospace industry in all sorts of ways.
An Airbus A350-1000 is refuelled with a 35% blend of SAF prior to its participation at the 2024 Singapore Airshow’s flying display. Credit: Airbus
For Airbus, which spent €3.2bn on research and development last year, that comes in the form of clean-sheet designs for hydrogen-powered aircraft that promise to reduce in-flight carbon emissions to zero. The European planemaker’s ambition is to bring to market the world’s first such commercial aircraft by 2035.
But Airbus is also working on a successor to the A320 family, referred to as the “next-generation single-aisle” aircraft. At the company’s full-year briefing on February 15, more details were revealed about the aircraft, including confirmation that it would run entirely on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).
“We’re working on technology to develop the next short-to-medium range aircraft before the end of the next decade, which will be capable of flying up to 100% SAF,” Julie Kitcher, Airbus’ chief sustainability officer, told LNA in Toulouse. “It will be much more fuel efficient, but also feature a new wing design and new materials; we’re working on a lifecycle approach to this aircraft.” Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 28. Alternative Preliminary design
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 1, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We described the Preliminary design phase of an airliner development program last week. One could say this was the classical way that aircraft projects conduct Preliminary design.
There is a different way that Conceptual and Preliminary design can be run. It’s more along the lines of pre-development of functions, as a reader commented on two articles back.
Figure 1. An alternative new airliner family development plan. Source: Leeham Co.
The Small Airliner Problem, Part 10. Cash costs for a battery-based airliner
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By Bjorn Fehrm
July 6, 2023, © Leeham News: In our series on costs factors that make up Cash Operating Cost for a battery-based airliner with range extenders, we now add Crew costs and Airport/Airway fees.
We then have all the components of the Cash Operating Cost (COC) for the ES-30 and can compare it to a normal propulsion 30-seat turboprop.
Figure 1. The Heart Aerospace ES-30 hybrid 30-seat airliner. Source: Heart Aerospace.
Summary:
- The high operating weight and slow speed of a battery airliner increase the Airport/Airway fees and Crew costs for the ES-30.
- In summary, only one Cash cost remains competitive, and the COC total exceeds the cost of a 30-seater turboprop.
What’s the Green aviation news at Paris 2023?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
June 22, 2023, © Leeham News: Every announcement from aircraft deals, OEM updates, or supply chain news now has the words Sustainable/Sustainability injected in every second sentence. It doesn’t matter what the subject is; if it’s about a gas-guzzling way of transporting people at supersonic or even hypersonic speeds or at the other end in an eVTOL which is only as fast as your car on a US highway.
What is the real news about making our air transport system less polluting behind this misuse of the buzzwords? You have to search behind the headlines and the announcements that you know will not turn the dial. Let’s tour the Paris Air Show 2023 and look at the real developments in Sustainability.
Figure 1. First flight of Universal Hydrogen’s DH8-300 with a hydrogen propulsion system on the starboard side. Source: Universal Hydrogen.
Summary:
- The waves of Green propulsion solutions with inflated claims have calmed down.
- It’s replaced with operationally usable solutions that deliver tangible emission gains.
The Small Airliner Problem, Part 8. A battery-based airliner
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By Bjorn Fehrm
June 15, 2023, © Leeham News: In our series on fundamental costs factors that make up Cash Operating Cost, COC (Fuel, Maintenance, Airway/Airport fees, Crew costs), we have started analyzing if the size related cost factors also apply to green propulsion airliners and if the trends stay the same or change.
We use the Heart Aerospace ES-30 project as an example of a battery-based airliner with range extenders. Last week we developed the fundamental aero data for the aircraft with our Aircraft Performance and Cost model; now, we fly representative sectors and look at the energy and fuel consumptions compared to a similar-sized turboprop airliner.
Figure 1. The Heart Aerospace ES-30 hybrid 30-seat airliner. Source: Heart Aerospace.
Summary:
- There is a difference between what the theory says about aircraft range on batteries and how you have to fly in practice to keep battery costs down.
- The ES-30 has dual range-extending Turbogenerators. They get going more often and at a shorter range than advertised.
The Small Airliner Problem, Part 7. How affected are Green airliners?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
June 8, 2023, © Leeham News: We have analyzed the costs factors that make up Cash Operating Cost, COC (Fuel, Maintenance, Airway/Airport fees, Crew costs), and how these vary with different size airliners. The aim was to search for fundamental trends and if these disadvantaged a smaller airliner versus a larger one.
We found that a smaller airliner (we analyzed from 190 seats down to 9 seats) has structural cost disadvantages versus a larger model. The analysis was made with conventional gas turbine-propelled planes so as not to complicate the work. Now we introduce airliner types with green propulsion concepts and see if the trends stay the same or change.
Figure 1. The Heart Aerospace ES-30 hybrid 30-seat airliner. Source: Heart Aerospace.
Summary:
- We analyze the fundamental characteristics of a hybrid 30-seat airliner and compare it to the conventional airliners we characterized in the series.
- The negative cost trend for smaller airliners worsens for a battery or hybrid airliner.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 14. Airframe for lower friction drag
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 26, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a summary of the article Part 14P. Airframe for lower friction drag. The article discusses in detail a Blended Wing Body (BWB) type airframe and how it reduces the wetted area and, thus, air friction drag compared to a conventional tube and wing airframe.
Figure 1. JetZero Z5 250 seat BWB jet concept. Source: JetZero.
The Small Airliner Problem, Part 3
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 4, 2023, © Leeham News: In our series about the viability of the business plans for small airliners (nine to 50 seats), we have covered how energy and fuel consumption scales with the size of the airliner.
The cost factor we examine today is the maintenance cost for keeping an airliner fit for purpose and safe.
We use the Leeham aircraft performance and cost model to get the data for the maintenance costs for airliners going from nine to 200 seats.
Figure 1. The Cessna Sky Courier is a new 19-seat small airliner with conventional propulsion. Source: Textron Aviation.
Summary:
- The maintenance costs of an airliner scale differently from the energy and fuel consumption we studied last week.
- We discuss the scaling metrics for the airframe maintenance costs and how these differ from what drives engine maintenance costs.
Alaska Airlines announces hydrogen-electric partnership with ZeroAvia
VIPs were on hand Monday at a hangar on Paine Field as Alaska Airlines and ZeroAvia announced that the airline had donated one of its recently retired de Havilland Dash 8 Q400 aircraft to be a testbed for ZeroAvia’s new hydrogen-electric propulsion systems./Bryan Corliss photo
By Bryan Corliss
May 2, 2023 © Leeham News – Two-and-a-half years ago, a hydrogen-powered regional aircraft for Alaska Airlines was a caffeine-fueled brainstorm, the airline’s head of development said.
Two-and-a-half years from today, the flight of this kind of plane may be close to becoming reality.
That’s how fast the technology is evolving, said Pasha Saleh, who manages Alaska Air Group’s Star Ventures investment fund.
The fund is one of the investors in ZeroAvia’s effort to develop a hydrogen-electric turboprop motor strong enough to power regional aircraft. On Monday, ZeroAvia and Alaska unveiled the de Havilland Dash 8 Q400 that will be the testbed for the project.
VIPs touted the Alaska-ZeroAvia partnership for building the “world’s largest hydrogen-powered commercial aircraft.”
The goal is to have small aircraft with hydrogen-electric motors flying as soon as two years from now, said ZeroAvia CEO Valery Miftakov. “It’s quite aggressive targets that we have, but it can work.”
- ZeroAvia gives 1.8 MW engine a spin
- Alaska sees hydrogen as an option on regional routes
- ZeroAvia envisions producing green hydrogen at airports
- VIPs laud progress on hydrogen flight
- WA Gov. confirms retirement, hints at future
The Small Airliner problem, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
April 27, 2023, © Leeham News: We started a series about the viability of the business plans for small airliners (nine to 50 seats) last week in the light of a continuing decline of regional airlines in the US and Europe.
To understand whether fundamentals are stacked against small airliners, we look at operational cost factors and how these scale with aircraft size. Then we add the revenue and yield and discuss the conditions for viable business plans for different size aircraft.
This week we use the Leeham airliner performance and cost model to compare the airframe energy and fuel consumptions for airliners spanning nine to 200 seats.
Figure 1. Eviation Alice is a battery-based nine-seat electric aircraft. Source: Eviation.
Summary:
- On an airframe energy level, a smaller airliner consumes more energy per transported passenger than a larger one.
- If we change the metric to propulsion energy consumption, the trend is augmented as small propulsion solutions are less efficient than larger ones.